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☆ The bank panic is subsiding just in time for the Fed to
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —One week ago, right in this here newsletter, I wrote about how Wall Street was having a Zen moment. In the optimistic camp: “The bank crisis-ette is over,” Daniel Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, told me. And it will be the first time the world hears from Fed officials since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, thanks to a cosmic twist of timing. But because of the banking turmoil, there is a chance the Fed would decide not to raise rates this time around. If the Fed feels the crisis has passed, Alpert said, it will be emboldened to go for the quarter-point hike.

☆ Premarket Stocks: Who do we blame for the fall of SVB?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Blame the Fed: SVB’s downfall was largely caused by a record $42 billion bank run that left the bank in desperate need of cash. But the Fed’s rate hikes had undermined the value of bonds, a critical source of capital for SVB. “The Federal Reserve failed as a bank supervisor,” he wrote. On Capitol Hill, frequent Fed critic Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been quick to blame Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a lack of oversight. Blame SVB: Others say the blame should be placed on the banks themselves.

☆ CPI report: Inflation fell for eighth-straight month in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN —Inflation remains elevated but the temperature is coming down, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. It’s the eighth consecutive month that the annual rate has declined, and marks the lowest level since September 2021. On a monthly basis, prices were up 0.4%, representing a cooldown from the January monthly growth rate of 0.5%. Despite some broader declines, Tuesday’s CPI report shows that it may take longer for the inflation rate to reach the Fed’s desired 2% target, wrote Sinem Buber, lead economist at ZipRecruiter. On the one hand, it wants to maintain credibility on inflation and avoid core inflation accelerating further.

☆ Bank runs don’t change Fed’s focus on high prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The federal government took emergency action to stave off other implosions, but SVB’s collapse cast a shadow over the Fed’s next rate decision. Economists at Goldman Sachs and Barclays scrapped their forecasts for a rate hike and now expect the central bank to hold rates steady when it meets on March 22. That is three times the central bank’s inflation target. Inflation remains much too hot for the Fed’s liking, and the central bank has more reason to repeat February’s 25-basis-point hike than to deviate from it. Its last policy meeting concluded with the central bank lifting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

☆ Bank-rule pendulum swings back to 'safety first'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The crisis that struck the U.S. banking system over the weekend had many causes. After the 2008 crisis, Congress bound up the financial system with rules to prevent bank death spirals. The major financial authorities – the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency – applied the lighter touch. The Fed was permitted to retain tough rules for banks with assets over $100 billion, but decided not to. There are, after all, only 17 banks with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion – two fewer than last week.

☆ CFOs Warily Watch—and Wait—for an Acceleration in Fed Interest-Rate Hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Jennifer Williams-Alvarez | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

For some finance chiefs of companies such as auto retailer Sonic Automotive Inc., the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates by a larger half-percentage-point later this month comes as little surprise given that consumer spending remains strong and hiring continues to be robust. The Federal Reserve stands ready to accelerate interest-rate hikes to combat inflation, central bank Chair Jerome Powell said in congressional testimony the past two days. Some finance chiefs who are already pushing their companies to do more with less amid rising costs said they are closely monitoring the impact of what comes next. Mr. Powell’s comments, delivered during semiannual hearings before Senate and House panels, open up the possibility that a larger half-point interest rate increase may be in store when Fed officials meet for their two-day policy meeting March 21-22. “The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” he told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee resumes uptrend on likely dollar inflows, Fed risks linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, March 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee rose against the U.S. currency on Thursday, supported by dollar inflows and the underlying positive momentum, traders said. The rupee was at 81.8575 to the U.S. dollar by 10:22 a.m. IST compared with 82.0550 in the previous session. The rupee has not been impacted by the change in the repricing of what the Federal Reserve is likely to do at this month's meeting. The local currency is marginally higher than what it was before Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments. Dollar inflows are helping negotiate the renewed Fed concerns, they added.

☆ Mortgage rates rise for the fifth-straight week
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates edged further toward 7%, rising for the fifth consecutive week, as the Federal Reserve suggests rate increases will continue amid stubborn inflation. “Mortgage rates continue their upward trajectory as the Federal Reserve signals a more aggressive stance on monetary policy,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Housing market chilledRising mortgage rates have put a damper on the spring selling season. While applications for a mortgage rose slightly last week after three weeks of declines, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, activity is muted.

☆ Breakingviews: Powell leads markets on a needlessly wild ride
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The market is quickly getting to grips with a new Jerome Powell. That’s different from what investors expected from the Fed just two months ago. As investors’ perception of Powell takes a U-turn, upcoming economic data could make for a bumpy transition. Yet investors largely expected the central bank to raise by a little less, and start cutting later in 2023. He repeated the comment to the House Financial Services Committee, adding that the Fed hasn't yet reached a decision on its next rate increase.

March 7 (Reuters) - Fox Corp (FOXA.O) Chairman Rupert Murdoch questioned whether hosts Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham “went too far” in their coverage of voter fraud claims, according to an email contained in a trove of new exhibits in Dominion Voting Systems’ lawsuit against Fox that became public Tuesday. The exhibits unsealed Tuesday contain evidence underlying the parties’ dueling motions for summary judgment, in which they seek pretrial rulings in their favor. The new documents also include more context of testimony and messages that Fox claimed Dominion had “cherry-picked” and “misrepresented” in its filing. Dominion has alleged Fox continued to push the stolen election narrative because it was losing viewers to right-wing outlets that embraced it. Fox argued in court filings that its coverage of claims by Trump's lawyers were inherently newsworthy and protected by the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

☆ Premarket stocks: Jerome Powell's testimony sent markets reeling. That may be a good thing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday cleared the way for larger interest rate hikes at this month’s central bank policy meeting, sending markets into a tailspin. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Dow dropped 575 points, or 1.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite ended 1.3% lower. After Powell’s testimony, market expectations for a half-percentage point rate hike spiked. If inflation fails to continue falling, he said, the Fed will keep trying to cool things down by raising rates. Even if Powell was sure that January’s economic data was a fluke, he still wants to maintain the Fed’s credibility.

The non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.05-82.10 to the U.S. dollar compared with 81.91 in the previous session. These were Powell's first comments following the higher-than-expected U.S. January inflation data. He seemed to acknowledge that "disinflationary process" he spoke of repeatedly in a Feb. 1 news conference was not unfolding smoothly. Powell's comments pushed up the probability of a half a percentage point hike at the upcoming March meeting to 72%. 3** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $122.4 mln worth of Indian bonds on Mar.

☆ Powell leads markets on a needlessly wild ride
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That’s different from what investors expected from the Fed just two months ago. As investors’ perception of Powell takes a U-turn, upcoming economic data could make for a bumpy transition. Yet investors largely expected the central bank to raise by a little less, and start cutting later in 2023. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the Fed’s rate decisions will rely heavily on the latest economic data. He repeated the comment to the House Financial Services Committee, adding that the Fed hasn't yet reached a decision on its next rate increase.

☆ Treasury yields rise as investors weigh Fed Chair Powell’s remarks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up under a basis point to 3.9795%. Many investors took that as a sign that a 50 basis point rate hike is an option at the Fed's next meeting. At the conclusion of its last meeting, the Fed had announced a 25 basis point increase. This marked a slowdown from previous rate decisions, which included four consecutive 75 basis point hikes followed by a 50 basis point increase.

☆ Powell Testimony Drives Up Shorter-Term Bond Yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Sam Goldfarb | Matt Grossman | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Yields on shorter-term U.S. Treasurys climbed to new milestones Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank would likely raise interest rates higher than previously expected and was ready to accelerate the pace of rate increases if necessary. Especially sensitive to changes in the near-term interest-rate outlook, short-term Treasury yields jumped immediately after the text of Mr. Powell’s congressional testimony was released. They then held on to most of their gains even as yields on longer-term Treasurys gave up almost all of theirs.

☆ Jerome Powell Says Fed Is Prepared to Speed Up Interest-Rate Rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said strong and sustained economic activity to start this year could prompt central bank officials to accelerate interest-rate increases and will likely lead them to lift rates more than they expected to combat high inflation. Mr. Powell’s comments, prepared for delivery during the first of two days of Capitol Hill hearings on Tuesday, offered his first public acknowledgment that a pace of quarter-point interest-rate increases isn’t set in stone.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors anticipate Fed Chair Powell’s remarks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down over four basis points to 3.9382% at 3:51 a.m. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors awaited fresh comments on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Fed Chairman Powell is due to give testimony about the state of the U.S. economy before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Investors are expecting to gather fresh insights into the central bank's expectations for inflation and its monetary policy path from his comments. That comes as the latest round of inflation data suggested that pressures from rising prices is continuing.

☆ What’s changed since Powell last headed to Capitol Hill
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

It’s his first appearance before the committee since June last year, when inflation was on its way to 9%. Inflation has slowed in recent months, measuring 6.4% in January after hitting a 40-year high of 9.1% in June. Faced with a strong labor market, uncertain geopolitical developments and surging inflation, Powell told members of Congress then that he’d likely propose a quarter-point rate hike at the central bank’s forthcoming meeting. It’s now March 2023, and the central bank is faced with an “extraordinarily strong” labor market, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and stubborn inflation. One month ago, the probability for a half-point increase was 3.3%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

☆ Analysis: Investors revive inflation trades as 6% Fed rate risk grips Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Spooked by a flurry of hotter-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data last month, investors are reviving trading strategies that bet on a higher peak in interest rates. The recalibration in inflation expectations has led some investors to bet on a policy rate of 6% or even higher. Trading platform Tradeweb said it saw average daily volume in inflation swaps - derivatives used to hedge inflation risk - increase by 23% month-on-month in February. With higher inflation expectations lifting short-term bond yields higher than those at the longer end, some investors are wary of committing to debt maturities at the long end of the bond market yield curve. "The momentum in the economy is so strong that we may have to get into 2024 before the Fed funds rate peaks."

☆ Stock futures are flat Tuesday night following a selloff fueled by Powell’s comments: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The action comes after a selloff spurred by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments indicating interest rates may need to go higher for longer. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked higher by 2 points, or 0.01%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by 0.04% and 0.05%, respectively. The shakeup in markets came after Fed Chair Powell spoke before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. January's job openings and labor turnover data is due, as is the ADP jobs report for February.

☆ Dollar dips, Powell testimony and jobs data in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index has bounced off a nine-month low of 100.80 reached on Feb. 1 as strong data and still-high inflation leads investors to reprice for higher rates for longer. Data on Monday showed that new orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in January, pulled down by a plunge in civilian aircraft bookings. Powell’s testimony will be watched for any new signals on whether the U.S. central bank could reaccelerate the pace of rate hikes in response to the recent data. The Chinese yuan and Aussie dollar fell after China on Sunday set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth this year of around 5%. The dollar gained 0.15% to 136.02 yen ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday.

In a text message with his producer, Alex Pfeiffer, Mr. Carlson appeared livid that viewers were turning against the network. On Nov. 7, 2020, Mr. Carlson told Mr. Pfeiffer that claims about manipulated software were “absurd.” Mr. Pfeiffer replied later that there was not enough evidence of fraud to swing the election. A video of Carlson from “Tucker Carlson Tonight.” Said publicly on Nov. 19, 2020 Carlson: “We did not dismiss any of it. It aired on the programs hosted by Mr. Dobbs, Ms. Bartiromo and Jeanine Pirro. On Feb. 5, 2021, one day after Smartmatic filed a defamation lawsuit against Fox, Fox Business canceled “Lou Dobbs Tonight.” At the time, Fox said it regularly reviewed its lineup.

☆ Central banks' inflation fall-guy lives Down Under
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MELBOURNE, Feb 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If any central bank governor was to feel the heat from the past year’s multiple interest-rate increases, the smart money might have been on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell. Fast forward and Philip Lowe, governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia, looks most exposed. It would be unfair for Lowe to be the fall guy for central banks’ general inflation failure. The head of the central bank made his comments in front of the Senate Economics Legislation Committee. When questioned about his future at the bank, Lowe said he intended to serve out his seven-year term as governor, which ends in September.

Brent crude settled up $1.40, or 1.7%, to $85.09 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up $1.33, or 1.7%, to $78.47. Investors hope less aggressive U.S. interest rate increases will help the world's biggest economy dodge a sharp economic slowdown or recession that would hit oil demand. "A looming oil demand surge together with lacklustre global supply growth will ensure that the oil balance tightens over the coming months," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. The earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on Monday stopped crude oil flows from Iraq and Azerbaijan out of the Turkish port of Ceyhan. U.S. Energy Information Administration data showing U.S. oil production rose last week to the highest level since April 2020, however, limited oil's gains.

☆ Premarket stocks: Here's what keeps Jerome Powell up at night and interest rates high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Structural changes in the labor market: The US economy added an astonishing 517,000 jobs in January, blowing economists’ expectations out of the water. “The labor market is extraordinarily strong,” he said. Core services inflation: Powell noted that he’s seeing disinflation in the goods sector and expects to soon see declining inflation in housing. Service-sector inflation, which is more sensitive to a strong labor market, is up 7.5% from the year prior through the end of 2022, and has not abated, he said. Tech layoffs, Big Oil and soft landings: What investors are watching▸ The labor market is strong, but tech layoffs keep coming.

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