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US stocks plunged Monday amid recession fears and the yen carry trade unwind. AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Monday as investors worried about a potential recession and the knock-on effects from the unwind of the yen carry trade. All of those factors have drummed up fears that a recession could be imminent, especially given that the Federal Reserve could be "behind the curve" in its failure to cut interest rates last month. AdvertisementHere's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:Some believe the Fed should implement an emergency interest rate cut, including Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. AdvertisementBut perhaps the biggest driver of Monday's stock market decline was the unwind of the yen carry trade.
Persons: Dow Jones, , payrolls, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, LPL, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Service, Dow Jones, Apple, Amazon, Intel, Federal, Here's, Bank of Japan, Yahoo Finance Locations: Japan
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Jobs shock hits stocksU.S. stocks plummeted on Friday after a weaker-than-expected jobs report added to fears of a recession. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.43% and is now in correction territory, having declined more than 10% from its recent high. Asian stocks plungeAsian stocks continued to sell-off on Monday, with the Japanese market confirming a bear market. The stocks had to pass several criteria, including receiving five or more earnings upgrades in the past three months.
Persons: Topix, Taiwan's Taiex, Warren Buffett Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Nikkei, CSI, Berkshire Hathaway's, Apple . Berkshire, Exxon, Chevron, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, China, Apple ., Berkshire, Guyana, U.S, San Ramon , California, Houston , Texas
The stock market crashed Monday, with the Nasdaq 100 dropping nearly 6%. AdvertisementUS stocks crashed on Monday, with the Nasdaq shedding nearly 6% as the global market rout that kicked off late last week accelerated. AdvertisementThe losses accelerated on Monday after Japan's stock market experienced its worst decline since the Black Monday crash in 1987, falling 12%. Berkshire Hathaway now holds a record $277 billion in cash, leading to some investors worrying that Buffett has soured on the stock market. The bigger question is whether this bloodletting will prove sufficient to provide a basis for a resumption of the stock market rally, and ultimately fresh record highs.
Persons: , nonfarm payrolls, Jamie Cox, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, bitcoin, David Morrison Organizations: Nasdaq, Berkshire Hathaway's Apple, Service, Dow Jones, Amazon, Intel, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Harris Financial, Berkshire Hathaway's, Berkshire, FCA Locations: Berkshire
Stock markets worldwide are on the slide, with Japan's Nikkei falling more than 12% on Monday. Worse than-expected jobs data in the US last week fuelled recession fears and drove the sell-off. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Fears of a recession in the US jumped after significantly weaker-than-expected July jobs numbers on Friday, which also saw jobs numbers for June revised lower. It's hard to believe such market moves would have occurred in any other month."
Persons: Jim Reid, , Michael Brown, Pepperstone, Reid, payrolls, Beryl, It's, we're Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Deutsche Bank ., Service, Nikkei, Deutsche Bank, Federal, Fed, Reuters, of Japan Locations: America, Japan, Tokyo
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.43% and is now in correction territory, having declined more than 10% from its recent high. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 when the global economy was still reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic. The stocks had to pass several criteria, including receiving five or more earnings upgrades in the past three months.
Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Berkshire Hathaway's, Apple . Berkshire, Exxon, Chevron, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, Apple ., Berkshire, Guyana, U.S, San Ramon , California, Houston , Texas
Treasury yields tumble as recession concerns take hold
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over eight basis points to 3.7099%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.7315% after falling by around 14 basis points. U.S. Treasurys slid on Monday as fears about a recession grew after a series of key economic data was released last week. The data suggested an easing of the labor market, which prompted concerns about a recession. That came after the Fed earlier in the week left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a September rate cut.
Persons: Treasurys, July's nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Dow, Fed, PMI
That change in pay and benefits underscores the changing job outlook for the millions of American teen workers following the pandemic-induced labor crunch. Despite those efforts, she's at times seen teen employees leave for higher pay at chain rivals like Starbucks . 'The summer job is back'Whether it's a raise or financial support for education, these boons appear to be luring teens to the workforce. "The summer job is back," said Alicia Sasser Modestino, an associate professor of economics who studies youth development at Northeastern University. Gusto expects sports and recreation; education; and food and beverage to be popular summer job sectors for this age bracket.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Dailey Jogan, Jogan, Liz Wilke, Chipotle, Daniel Banks, Justin Sullivan, Banks, Erin Powell's, Powell, she's, Alicia Sasser Modestino, Gusto's Wilke, Wilke, today's, Olivia Locarno Organizations: Getty, Detroit, Employers, Grill, Northeastern University, Starbucks, Marist College, Amazon Locations: Coney, Brooklyn, New York City, California, San Rafael , California, Minnesota, New Jersey
Here are JPMorgan's top stock picks for August
  + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Some stocks have been added and others on this month's list. EQT Corp. has been added, while Arista Networks and Coherent Corp. – two names on last month's list – have been removed. Here are some of JPMorgan's top picks for August: EQT was named as part of the bank's value strategy. Of consumer stocks, McDonald's is also viewed as a value play, with shares of the fast-food chain down 7% this year. For growth stocks, Amazon made the cut.
Persons: EQT, McDonald's, Joe Erlinger, Brian Olsavsky, Donald Trump, Olsavsky, Eli Lilly –, Organizations: JPMorgan, Dow Jones, EQT Corp, Arista Networks, Amazon, Paris, Microsoft Locations: EQT, McDonald's U.S
Read previewThe US job market has certainly seen better days. AdvertisementThose rate cuts will help pull the job market out of its slowdown — but likely not before the unemployment rate climbs higher, says Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. And even then, it could take time for the effects of rate cuts to fully work their way across the job market, said Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate. AdvertisementSlowdown in the pipelineUntil rate cuts kick in, Allen thinks the joblessness rate has even more room to climb. AdvertisementForward-looking indicators of job market strength have also been flashing signs of incoming weakness.
Persons: , Oliver Allen, Allen, , Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Business, Pantheon, Challenger, Gray &, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business
But you're going to struggle if you're looking for a new one. "Even a few months ago, the labor market seemed fine, the trajectory looked stable," said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a think tank. The Fed therefore believes it can put a floor underneath the labor market that prevents it from deteriorating further, Berger said. "What we need to see is strong private-sector labor market growth, and outside of health care, what we've seen instead is a very, very rapid deceleration that has shown no signs yet of stabilizing," Pollak said. Pollak also said leisure and hospitality jobs — a key entry point into the labor market — have actually declined outright in recent months, putting further pressure on workers to secure employment.
Persons: Guy Berger, Berger, Jerome Powell, Bill Dudley, Julia Pollak, Pollak, we've Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Glass, Federal, Fed, New York Federal, Bloomberg Locations: U.S, haves
"A 50 basis point Fed cut in September is clearly justified as the labor market is now showing clear signs of softening," said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. The firm, which has long been saying the Fed will need to cut aggressively this year, expects another 50 basis point cut in November by a 25 basis point cut move in December. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The S & P 500 lost more than 2.5% and Treasury yields plummeted, sending the policy-sensitive 2-year note down more than a quarter percentage point to 3.91%. "It's very possible the Fed alters its inter-meeting communications on the balance of risks to remove all doubt [of] a September rate cut."
Persons: Yung, Yu Ma, David Donabedian, Preston Caldwell, David Rosenberg, Jerome Powell, Jamie Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Statistics, BMO Wealth Management, Wall, Citigroup, CIBC Private Wealth, Morningstar, Rosenberg Research, Harris Financial
Following the trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 700 shares of AVGO, increasing its weighting in the portfolio to 3.16% from 2.94%. The stock market is headed for another rough day as concerns about the economy grow. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, payrolls, Ben Reitzes, Dell, Lisa Su, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Broadcom, AVGO, Federal Reserve, VMware, Intel, Melius Research, HP, AMD, CNBC Locations: U.S
The S & P 500 ended the week down by 2%. As of Friday, the Nasdaq Composite was more than 10% below its recent high, while the S & P 500 was down by 5.7%. Markets were last pricing in a 71% chance of a half percentage point rate cut in September, up from 22% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool . Brands , Fidelity National Information Services , Uber Technologies , Marathon Petroleum , Caterpillar Wednesday Aug. 7 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (June) Earnings: Costco Wholesale , Warner Bros. Discovery , Occidental Petroleum , Ralph Lauren , CVS Health , Hilton Worldwide Holdings , Walt Disney Company Thursday Aug. 8 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Stocks, payrolls, Bill Hornbarger, Benjamin F, Edwards, Russell, Claudia Sahm, selloff, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, CNBC's, Eli Lilly, Ralph Lauren, Martin Marietta Organizations: Nasdaq, Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve, Walt Disney Company, Caterpillar, Costco, Micro Computer, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Simon Property Group, Diamondback Energy, Tyson Foods, Devon Energy, Airbnb, Wynn Resorts, TransDigm, Brands, Fidelity National Information Services, Uber Technologies, Marathon Petroleum, Consumer Credit, Costco Wholesale, Warner Bros, Discovery, Occidental Petroleum, CVS Health, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Gilead Sciences, Akamai Technologies, News Corp, Paramount Global, Expedia, Martin, Martin Marietta Materials Locations: Fortinet, Devon
The weak report all but confirms the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, an outcome that was already carrying a near-100% probability heading into the report. AdvertisementFriday's jobs report comes after this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady once again. "I think it's past time for them to cut interest rates," Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told Business Insider in July. "The question will be whether the totality of the data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks are consistent with rising confidence on inflation and maintaining a solid labor market," Powell said. There were around 3.3 million quits in June and the quits rate was 2.1%.
Persons: , payrolls, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Business, Labor Statistics, Reserve, Stock, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job growth in the U.S. slowed much more than expected during July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.3%, its highest since October 2021. "Temperatures might be hot around the country, but there's no summer heatwave for the job market," said Becky Frankiewicz, president of the Manpower Group employment agency. From a sector standpoint, health care again led in job creation, adding 55,000 to payrolls. The labor force also contracted by 214,000, though the participation rate as a share of the working-age population actually edged higher to 62.7%.
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Becky Frankiewicz Organizations: Labor Department, Stock, Manpower Group Locations: U.S
Gold prices set for weekly gain with U.S. payrolls data on tap
  + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices firmed on Friday and were set for a weekly gain, driven by prospects of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tensions in the Middle East, while market participants awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for further direction. Gold prices firmed on Friday and were set for a weekly gain, driven by prospects of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tensions in the Middle East, while market participants awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for further direction. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,451.07 per ounce, as of 0243 GMT, and has gained more than 2% for the week. Trader bets for a super-sized 50-basis-point rate cut in September jumped to 28.5% from 11.8% earlier this week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. "Angst surrounding U.S. elections and the conflict in the Middle East will play an assisting role in moving gold higher on a sustained basis," analysts at TD Securities said in a note.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Ajay Kedia, Mohammed Deif Organizations: Federal, Kedia Commodities, TD Securities Locations: U.S, Mumbai, Gaza, Tehran
US stocks fell after a weak July jobs report raised concerns of a slowing economy. The US added 114,000 jobs in July, below estimates of 175,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%. Intel and Amazon's weak earnings reports also contributed to Friday's stock market decline. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly rose to 4.3% from 4.1%, its highest level since October 2021. The 10-Year US Treasury yield plunged nearly 20 basis points to a 2024 low of 3.80% immediately after the jobs report was released.
Persons: , Stephen Brown Organizations: Intel, Service, Treasury, Capital Economics, Federal, CME, Amazon Locations: payrolls
Tom Merton | Ojo Images | Getty ImagesJob seekers have been sour on the job market for a while now — and with good reason. "The soft landing in the U.S. labor market is in danger," Nick Bunker, Economic Research Director for North America for Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote in a statement on Friday. "Yellow flags had started to pop up in the labor market data over the past few months, but now the flags are turning red," Bunker said. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. To pivot, assess 'transferrable skills'Because the labor market is weakening, it might be hard for workers to find opportunities in their preferred industries, Bustamante noted.
Persons: Tom Merton, Nick Bunker, Bunker, Nonfarm payrolls, Alí Bustamante, Julia Pollak, Pollak, NEETS, Bustamante Organizations: Economic, North, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Worker Power, Economic Security, Roosevelt Institute, ZipRecruiter, Health, Finance Locations: U.S, North America, New York City
McDonald's stock made the list. Despite weaker-than-expected second-quarter results , Morgan Stanley Wealth Management added McDonald's stock to its dividend equity portfolio in a Friday note, citing its attractive valuation as the company pushes to revamp its menu pricing. MCD YTD mountain McDonald's stock. EQIX YTD mountain Equinix stock. "With sentiment / expectations relatively low, we like the set-up, as we suspect EQIX can maintain constant-currency revenue guide and accelerate revenue growth in 2H'24," the analyst added.
Persons: Stocks, Morgan, Daniel Skelly, Skelly, Equinix, Wells, Eric Luebchow Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, CNBC Pro, CNBC, Stock, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CVS Health, 2H, L3Harris Technologies, Omnicom
Treasury yields slide ahead of July jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was down by over 4 basis points at 3.933%, remaining below the 4%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last around 5 basis points lower at 4.116%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday as investors looked ahead to the July jobs report and digested the interest rate outlook. The U.S. Labor Department's jobs report for July is slated for Friday, and will provide investors with insights into the state of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve earlier in the week kept rates unchanged at their latest meeting but hinted that a September rate cut was on the table, sending Treasury yields lower.
Persons: Dow, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Labor, Federal Locations: U.S
Boris Roessler | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesLONDON — European stocks were set to open lower Friday, extending losses amid a global downturn as a busy week of market action draws to a close. Germany's DAX was on course to open 104 points lower at 17,984, according to IG data, with France's CAC 40 down 40 points at 7,325. The regional Stoxx 600 index on Thursday suffered its worst session since mid-June, pulled down by financials as French bank Societe Generale downgraded its outlook and the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. The central bank decision took its key interest rate to 5% from 5.25%, in a move that markets had not been fully convinced it would carry out. Asia-Pacific markets saw steep losses Friday, with Japan's benchmark indexes tanking as much as 5%.
Persons: Boris Roessler, Germany's DAX, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, BOE, Joe Tuckey Organizations: Getty, France's CAC, Societe Generale, Bank of England, CNBC, Argentex, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of, Apple, Intel, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Frankfurt, Bank of Japan, Europe, Asia, Pacific
Gold scales 2-week high as Fed nods to likely Sept rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to cutting interest rates as early as September. Gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to cutting interest rates as early as September. Prices were just about $35 shy of the record high of $2483.60 scaled on July 17. "Gold bulls couldn't resist the urge to buy more gold after the Fed effectively signaled the beginning of its rate-cut cycle. "If the data comes in much hotter than expected, that could dent gold as we head towards the weekend," Simpson added.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Ismail Haniyeh, Nicky Shiels Organizations: Federal, Index, MKS PAMP SA Locations: U.S, Tehran, Israel, Gaza
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on July 31, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures slid on Thursday night as traders considered fresh results from Amazon and Intel. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 143 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.8%. Even the small-cap Russell 2000 hasn't been spared from the recent tumult, down about 3.3% in the period and on pace for its worst weekly performance since January. On the earnings front, energy giants Chevron and Exxon Mobil will be announcing their quarterly results Friday before the market open.
Persons: July's, Dow, Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, Russell, " Holzer, hasn't, payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Amazon, Intel, Investors, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, LPL, EAB Investment, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: New York City . U.S, Thursday's
The U.S. labor market may have cooled some in July, as a gradual slowdown in the economy and Hurricane Beryl are expected to have taken some of the steam out of hiring. Still, even if the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for July, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. "You're seeing just modest on-the-margin weakness in the labor market that [isn't likely to] spiral out of control into a negative feedback loop." Citigroup projects an even lower number — 150,000 on payrolls and a tick higher in the unemployment rate to 4.2%. Should the unemployment rate keep climbing, it could raise fears that the so-called Sahm Rule is in danger of being triggered.
Persons: Hurricane Beryl, nonfarm, Mike Reynolds, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs, Beryl Organizations: Amerant, Hurricane, Labor, Federal, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Citigroup Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida, The U.S, department's, Texas, Houston
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