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☆ The Fed sees a looming credit crunch. What's that?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

March 24 (Reuters) - It's an old saw: A credit crunch is when your bank won't lend to you. In other words: a credit crunch is coming. But the credit growth rate has recently fallen below its historic average to a level that has often been associated with a recession. That was indicative of the lasting restraint that episode had on the recovery in credit and economic growth overall. That was the case 8-10 years ago when low oil prices triggered a credit crunch among U.S. oil fracking companies, weighing heavily for a period on overall commercial loan growth while consumer loan growth kept improving.

"This is all a bit of a mess," Krishna Guha, vice chair of ISI Evercore and a former New York Federal Reserve official, wrote ahead of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting that has veered from a dead-certain jump in interest rates two weeks ago to a speculative morass. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note - particularly sensitive to Fed policy expectations - rose steadily through the day, adding roughly a quarter of a point from the overnight low and approaching 4%. Analysts trying to parse what recent bank stress might mean said a coming credit contraction could be the equivalent of an additional quarter point Fed rate increase, or as much as a recession-inducing 1.5 percentage points, rendering further rate hikes obsolete. "The emergence of financial stress is likely to indicate to the committee that monetary policy is closer to being 'sufficiently restrictive' than some may have thought previously," BOA economists wrote. "At the very least, stress in financial markets suggests that the Fed should proceed with caution."

☆ Premarket stocks: The forgotten rescue plan that could prevent another SVB-like collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Bank stocks rebounded significantly on Tuesday after logging record plunges Monday and the week prior. Those banks will coordinate to take Fed loans around the same time on the same day alongside smaller banks. ▸ US bank stocks rebounded on Tuesday, recovering some of their losses after the collapse of three banks tested markets on Monday. Regional bank stocks rallied: First Republic (FRC) Bank ended the day up 27% after a record drop on Monday. The question is whether bank stocks can hold on to their gains or if Tuesday was just a sector-wide dead cat bounce.

☆ Student-Loan Bills Are Set to Come Due, Adding Pressure on Younger Americans
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Gabriel T. Rubin | Gwynn Guilford | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The expected restart of student-loan repayments later this year could add to pressure on younger borrowers, who are already falling behind on debt in an era of high inflation and rising interest rates. Americans in their 30s and younger are showing signs of financial strain. In the fourth quarter, they fell behind on credit-card payments by 90 days or more at a rate similar to that in 2009, at the end of the financial crisis. Those borrowers also hold more than 54% of outstanding student-loan debt, New York Federal Reserve data show.

CASE FOR A SWIFT RETREAT1/ ENERGY PRICESTumbling energy prices are pulling down headline inflation. U.S. inflation rose 6.4% in January, the smallest rise since October 2021, from a 9.1% high last June. Instead, corporate profits have accounted for the lion's share of domestic euro zone price pressures since 2021, ECB data shows. A recent IMF study going back to the 1960s found that only in a small minority of cases where wages and inflation rose together for several quarters did sustained inflation result. The chief executive of Gunvor, a top oil trader, sees oil prices rising in the second half of 2023 on renewed Chinese demand.

☆ The US dollar is at a crossroads
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Wall Street investors are reaching for their neck braces in preparation for yet another volatile swing in stock markets: A surging US dollar. What’s happening: The US dollar “finds itself at a significant crossroads yet again,” said Krosby. Don’t forget the debt ceiling: Another significant threat to the dollar is looming in Congress — the ongoing debt ceiling fight. “It would certainly undermine the role of the dollar as a reserve currency that is used in transactions all over the world. Initial claims have come in lower than expected in recent weeks and remain well below their pre-pandemic levels.

☆ The 7 best college majors to choose if you want to make a lot of money in your first job — and no surprise, they're are all in STEM
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Marielle Descalsota | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The highest-earning graduates majored in engineering and science, and earned a median salary of at least $70,000, according to an analysis by the New York Federal Reserve. STEM graduates typically earn more than their liberal arts counterparts. Nitat Termmee/Getty ImagesThe New York Federal Reserve collated data on how much recent college graduates earned, between the ages of 22 to 27 in 2021. The New York Federal Reserve found the seven highest-paying majors were in the STEM industries, specifically engineering and science majors. Out of the seven best-earning majors, six were in engineering fields, while one was in science.

☆ Mark Zuckerberg is turning Facebook into Instagram as part of his self-declared “year of efficiency.”
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Diamond Naga Siu | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He chatted with a woman who was locked out of her Apple account minutes after her iPhone was stolen. CEO Mark Zuckerberg is structurally changing Facebook to mimic Instagram. The restructuring — which will likely include layoffs, as Insider reported — is part of Zuck's planned "year of efficiency." 8. iPhone users could soon send iMessages through PCs. These are the best MagSafe battery packs for iPhone users.

☆ The 6 worst college majors to choose if you want to make a lot of money in your first job, from psychology to hospitality
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Marielle Descalsota | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Barry Austin PhotographyThe analysis, published in February, took into account the earnings of recent college graduates and explored the labor market according to their college major. The New York Federal Reserve's data analyzed the median salaries of graduates aged between 22 to 27 years old in 2021. The New York Federal Reserve found the six lowest-paying majors fall under social sciences and liberal arts. Take a look at how much the lowest-paying majors are earning, according to the New York Federal Reserve's data. Entrants are arranged from the highest median salary to the lowest.

☆ The 10 worst-paying college majors, five years after graduation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Here's a look at how much graduates with the lowest-paying majors earn early in their careers:Median pay for each of the majors on the list is at least $6,500 less than the median salary for all majors, which is $46,500. Likewise, theology majors often work in educational roles that don't typically pay well. Later on in their careers, the pay disparity nearly doubles, as graduates with the lowest-paying majors earn median salaries less than $60,000 while graduates with the highest-paying majors make over six figures. Six other types of education majors populate the top 10 rankings for lowest mid-career salary as well. Specifically, the data is based on college graduates who work full-time, have a bachelor's degree only and are ages 22 to 27.

☆ The highest-paying college majors, top jobs in 2023 and who’s hiring right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Cindy Perman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Tech jobs are still hotOnce again, if you just followed the headlines (layoffs at Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, etc.) Jobs in the sector ranked among the Best Jobs for 2023, according to job site Indeed.com: Full-stack developer Data engineer Cloud engineer Senior product manager Back-end developer Almost half, 44%, of the top 25 jobs on that list were tech jobs. "I'm sure there are plenty of unfilled positions for tech workers in financial services or state and local governments. Tech workers laid off by tech companies may end up there." *MINDBLOWN*), plus jobs where you're a top applicant and some jobs that you might have missed.

☆ Morning Bid: Blue chips cheered up
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Its CEO Jensen Huang said use of its chips to power AI had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days." The Federal Reserve at least seems keen on the higher-for-longer message that's shaken world stock and bond markets this week. And as the minutes pre-date red-hot jobs and retail data for January, the message from Fed officials is probably even sterner now. A Reuters poll of equity analysts showed global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months.

☆ Fed is 'absolutely' committed to 2% inflation target, Williams says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Feb 22 (Reuters) - New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Wednesday said the U.S. central bank is "absolutely" committed to bringing inflation back down to its 2% target over the next few years, by bringing demand down in line with constrained supply. "Our job is clear: our job is to make sure we restore price stability, which is truly the foundation of a strong economy," Williams said at a conference hosted at the bank. He noted that with global supply chains still disrupted, goods prices may not continue their recent decline, and inflation in core services excluding housing continues to be far too high, driven by too much demand relative to supply. Reporting by Ann Saphir Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The 10 highest-paying college majors, five years after graduation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

If you want to make money pretty soon after college, consider studying engineering. Within five years of graduation, eight of the top 10 majors with graduates earning the most money are subsets of engineering, according to a recent New York Federal Reserve study. Chemical engineering majors take the top spot, as graduates earn a median annual salary of $75,000 shortly after college. The only non-engineering majors in the top 10 are computer science, ranked fourth, and business analytics, ranked ninth. Here's a look at how much graduates earn early in their careers, by major:

☆ Consumer debt hits record $16.9 trillion as delinquencies rise as well
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Consumer debt hit a fresh record at the end of 2022 while delinquency rates rose for several types of loans, the New York Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Debt across all categories totaled $16.9 trillion, up about more than $1.3 trillion from a year ago as balances rose across all major categories. Auto loan debt delinquencies rose 0.6 percentage point to 2.2% while credit card debt jumped 0.8 percentage point to 4%. Student loan debt also increased for the month after staying flat during much of the pandemic amid government-backed amnesty for borrowers. Auto loan debt edged higher to $1.55 trillion while credit card balances rose to just shy of $1 trillion.

☆ We just got a fresh sign that Biden's plan to give millions of student-loan borrowers who fell behind on payments a shot at debt relief is working
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The New York Fed found that $34 billion in delinquent student loans were marked current in the last quarter of 2022. That's thanks to Biden's "Fresh Start" plan, which aimed to restore defaulted borrowers to good standing. The plan will remain in place for a year after student-loan payments resume. In fact, student-loan borrowers who were previously behind on their payments — or delinquent — saw their conditions improve in the last quarter thank to President Joe Biden's "Fresh Start" plan. Student-loan payments are currently set to resume 60 days after June 30, or 60 days after the lawsuits blocking Biden's broad debt relief are resolved, whichever happens first.

☆ Morning Bid: Wings of a Dove
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. President Joe Biden is expected on Tuesday to name Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard to a top White House economic policy position, replacing National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. Biden confidant Jared Bernstein is expected to replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Brainard was seen as a powerful voice cautioning against over-aggressive Fed policy tightening. U.S. stock futures and world equities were higher on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar were steady to lower. Euro zone economic growth slowed in the last three months of 2022 but avoided a contraction many had predicted for months.

☆ Nasdaq futures edge higher as battered megacaps rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A fall in Treasury note yields indicate traders expect greater return from investments in risky assets. The major U.S. stock indexes ended the week previous lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) clocking its first weekly loss this year. Investor sentiment was dented by fresh concerns that the Federal Reserve would keep higher interest rates for longer. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.5 points, or 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 50.5 points, or 0.41%. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Americans in January expected mostly stable gains in future inflation, NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Respondents to the regional Fed bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said they expected inflation one year from now to hold steady at 5%. Respondents projected higher food and energy costs, while they saw steady future gains for rent and medical costs. The survey also found that respondents in January saw expected future household earnings growth at 3.3%, down from the expected 4.6% rise in the prior month. The New York Fed noted this was the biggest one-month drop ever for this measure. Meanwhile, expected future spending growth moderated to 5.7% last month, from the 5.9% forecast in December.

☆ Goldman sees big layoff announcements as 'a ripple, not a wave'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The rash of large layoffs at tech companies are not representative of a major breach in the labor market, according to Goldman Sachs. However, Goldman economists this week say they see a solid labor market and, in fact, less of a chance that the economy will contract over the next year. "We expect the recent round of corporate layoffs to be a ripple, not a wave," Goldman said in a recent client note. "It is also important to bear in mind that not every layoff translates into a lasting increase in unemployment because most workers find new jobs," Goldman economist Ronnie Walker wrote. Already one of the more optimistic forecasters on Wall Street, Goldman this week lowered its recession probability to 25%, from 35%, well below expectations elsewhere.

☆ Moving Fed policy rate to 5.00%-5.25% this year seems reasonable, Williams says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Moving to a federal funds rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% "seems a very reasonable view of what we'll need to do this year in order to get the supply and demand imbalances down," Williams said at a Wall Street Journal event. Williams' comments were his first since the Fed's decision last week to moderate the pace of its rate rise campaign. On Wednesday, Williams said it is key for monetary policy to get to and stay at levels that will restrain growth for a few years. He added that his expectations of future Fed rate cuts are driven mostly by a need to respond to the likelihood of lower levels of inflation in the future. Williams said the prospect of a lower federal funds rate next year is driven mostly by monetary policy adjusting to a weaker inflation environment.

☆ Wall Street falls on rate hike worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Money market participants are now betting the U.S. central bank's benchmark rate to rise above 5% in May before peaking to 5.18% by July, levels that officials have backed vociferously. Of all the S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly earnings, 69% of them have beaten expectations, according to Refinitiv. Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.N) rose 0.7% on upbeat earnings expectations for the year. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.86-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 56 new highs and 18 new lows.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell confesses 'This time it's different'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Any fear of a radical Fed rethink on the back of the jobs numbers seemed wide of the mark. "This cycle is different from other cycles...it has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell admitted. And many think last week's jobs report should similarly be treated with care. They included a minimum tax for billionaires and a quadrupling of the tax on corporate stock buybacks. Brands, Eaton Corp, etcUS terminal rateReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Iraq to discuss with U.S. how to pay Russian energy firms, Iraqi foreign minister says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BAGHDAD, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Iraq will discuss with Washington this week how to pay dues owed to Russian oil companies despite sanctions, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said on Monday. There are sanctions in place that should not be imposed on the Iraqi side because the cooperation with Russian companies is ongoing and there are active Russian companies in Iraq," Hussein said during a news conference with visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Baghdad. Russian investments in Iraq are believed to be worth more than $10 billion, mostly in the oil industry. Huessin said that one of the main issues he and Lavrov talked about was how to pay bills owed to Russian energy companies such as Lukoil and Gazprom that do business in Iraq even though Russia is under international sanctions. Hussein stated during a joint press conference with Lavrov that Iraq is calling for peaceful solutions and encouraging dialogue between Russia and Ukraine to end the war.

☆ Upside surprises — Credit Suisse predicts these stocks will have a big 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Certain names will surprise to the upside in 2023, according to Credit Suisse, in what's expected to be another volatile year for the stock market. Credit Suisse predicts Carnival will see upside to estimates for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2023 and 2024. Carnival has 47% upside to Credit Suisse's $16 price target, as of Wednesday's close. CCL mountain 2020-01-26 Carnival's performance since late January, 2020 Meanwhile, FedEx had a challenging 2022 but could rally nearly 27%, according to Credit Suisse's $238 price target. Nvidia shares have more than 8% upside to Credit Suisse's $210 price target.

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