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☆ Premarket stocks: The banking meltdown may have done the Fed's work for it
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
But in a strange twist, it’s possible that the banking meltdown actually did some work for the Fed in bringing down prices without raising interest rates. That could have the equivalent effect of the Fed hiking rates by half a point, said Goldman Sachs economists on Tuesday. Bank stocks rebound as Janet Yellen, Jamie Dimon work to restore confidenceThe collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rippled through markets last week. The Treasury secretary reiterated that the federal government would be willing to rescue uninsured depositors at small banks if lenders suffer bank runs, raising the specter of contagion. The SPDR Regional Banking Equity Traded Fund, which tracks a number of small and mid-sized bank stocks, gained 5.8% for the day.
☆ Bank shares rise after Credit Suisse rescue eases crisis
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Amanda Cooper Tom Westbrook John Revill | Amanda Cooper | Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
In a package engineered by Swiss regulators on Sunday, UBS Group AG (UBSG.S) will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.2 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group AG <CSGN.S>, which was once worth more than $90 billion. European bank shares inched into positive territory (.SX7P) while shares in U.S. financial giants Citigroup (C.N) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) rose 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. Investor focus had shifted to the massive blow some Credit Suisse bondholders will take, a new worry in a rolling banking sector crisis sparked by the collapse of midsize-U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) earlier this month. [1/2] Buildings of Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse are seen on the Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland March 20, 2023. QUESTIONS FOR UBSThe deal to buy Credit Suisse will make UBS Switzerland’s only global bank and the Swiss economy more dependent on a single lender.
☆ Bank shares slide as Credit Suisse rescue fails to quell contagion fears
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Amanda Cooper Tom Westbrook John Revill | Amanda Cooper | Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
In a package engineered by Swiss regulators on Sunday, UBS will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S) and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses. Investor focus has now shifted to the massive blow some Credit Suisse bondholders will take, adding to anxiety about other banking sector risks including contagion and the fragile state of U.S. regional lenders. UBS acquiring Credit Suisse for 3 billion francs a week ago would have seemed like a terrific deal. Buildings of Swiss banks UBS and Credit Suisse are seen on the Paradeplatz in Zurich, Switzerland March 20, 2023. QUESTIONS FOR UBSThe deal to buy Credit Suisse will make UBS Switzerland’s only global bank and the Swiss economy more dependent on a single lender.
☆ UBS acquiring Credit Suisse is 'no bailout' says Swiss finance minister — but top economist Mohamed El-Erian disagrees
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Switzerland's finance minister said UBS' $3.25 billion acquisition of Credit Suisse is not a bailout. The UBS and Credit Suisse deal — worth 3 billion Swiss francs, or $3.25 billion — comes with government guarantees and liquidity provisions. In particular, the Swiss government is guaranteeing UBS will get up to 9 billion Swiss francs if they incur losses from certain assets. The Swiss National Bank is also providing 100 billion Swiss francs in liquidity support to both banks. "The bankruptcy of Credit Suisse would have had a huge collateral damage - on the Swiss financial market also internationally," she said.
☆ Column: The road to war: An ex-Reuters journalist recalls the chase for WMD in Iraq
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Louis Charbonneau | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
March 20 (Reuters) - Louis Charbonneau covered the UN weapons inspections prior to the Iraq war and later became UN bureau chief. The U.S. was threatening to use military force to rid Iraq of WMD, which the administration of President George W. Bush insisted Iraq was developing in violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions. Reuters colleagues Evelyn Leopold and Irwin Arieff quickly cobbled together a story on doubts about the Niger uranium intel based on what I dictated. The next morning, I reached out to UN sources for more information on the Niger uranium. The IAEA experts had concluded they weren’t useful for a nuclear weapons program.
☆ Banks borrowed a record $153 billion from the Fed as SVB's collapse rocked Wall Street
  + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Banks rushed to borrow unprecedented amounts from the Federal Reserve's traditional backstop following SVB's collapse, new data shows. Lenders took up $153 billion from the Fed's discount window in the week to March 15, topping a previous high of $111 billion. Banks also borrowed $11.9 billion from the Fed's new emergency loan tool launched following SVB's downfall. The global banking system has come under pressure in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's demise. The move followed a turbulent few days for the regional lender as fears of depositors pulling funds sparked a selloff in its share price following SVB's implosion.
☆ Our bank deposits are safe, that is really important: Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOur bank deposits are safe, that is really important: Allianz's Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss if we're starting a full-blown banking crisis, what the Federal Reserve should do at upcoming meetings, and more.
☆ Mohamed El-Erian says the Fed's credibility is at stake as financial accidents spread
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The Federal Reserve failed to slow down its aggressive rate hikes in time, and now as a series of bank crises mount, the central bank's credibility is on the line, said economist Mohamed El-Erian. "One is a set of bank management issues and lapses in supervision," El-Erian said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" Wednesday. He explained that the Fed's "flip-flopping" between higher and lower interest rate hikes has contributed to the recent market instability, saying that's the third element. This news renewed the rout in U.S. bank stocks that began last week with troubles at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. It is captive to an outdated monetary framework," El-Erian said.
☆ Inflation cooled down again in February as the Fed wrestles with the Silicon Valley Bank failure
  + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
The consumer price index rose 6.0% year-over-year in February, less than January's year-over-year change of 6.4%. The cooldown should be welcome news to the Fed as it prepares for its interest rate decision next week. According to Tuesday's consumer price index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI soared 6.0% year-over-year in February. More specifically, the change for the index for food at home was 10.2%, higher than the year-over-year change of 8.4% for food away from home. The Fed will also have to confront a new round of financial turmoil after regulators recently closed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
☆ SVB: What the worst bank failure since 2008 means for markets, the financial sector, and interest rates
  + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
Here's what SVB's sudden demise means for markets, the US banking sector, and interest rates. That capped a turbulent week that saw a botched fundraising attempt by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and a $1.8 billion loss on its bond holdings, which ultimately triggered an old-fashioned bank run. Silicon Valley Bank's collapse exposed a serious risk many banks face in their business portfolios – the dependence on uninsured deposits. However, former Treasury chief Larry Summers took a less pessimistic view, saying SVB's collapse was "unlikely to be a broadly systemic problem." But as bad as it is, it's unlikely to trigger a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis that set the stage for the Great Recession, according to analysts.
☆ The Fed's been aggressively hiking rates over the past year. The banking crisis could force them to halt the hikes — or even cut them, analysts say.
  + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Nomura economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points next week. That's because bond prices and yields have an inverse relation, so when interest rates drop, prices bond prices tend to go up, which could alleviate losses. The Fed hiked interest rates eight times over the past year to its targeted levels of 4.5% to 4.75% now. On Sunday, investment banking giant Goldman Sachs said it doesn't expect the Fed to hike interest rates at its next meeting. The investment banking giant was previously expecting the US central bank to hike the rate by 0.25 percentage points.
☆ Silicon Valley Bank's spectacular implosion shows how digital banking can decimate a lender in 24 hours
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Hasan Chowdhury | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Silicon Valley Bank's rapid implosion showed how bank runs can go at warp speed in the digital age. But while digital banking meant SVB's collapse accelerated to warp speed, its foundations had been left shaky. Digital banking, and the expectation of instantaneous transactions, is now the norm for the internet generation. Bianco said SVB's collapse should "scare the hell" out of bankers and regulators worldwide. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, an independent financial adviser, said SVB's collapse had brought Trump-era deregulation into question.
☆ Mohamed El-Erian says U.S. may be stuck with sluggish growth and high inflation
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
There's a risk the economy can be stuck in a period of stagflation — sluggish growth and high inflation —on the heels of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, economist Mohamed El-Erian said Monday. The central bank has been hiking rates for the past year in an effort to tame inflation. El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said the Fed should continue on its path and increase rates by another 25 basis points. El-Erian believes it's possible the Fed may, in fact, hold off, but said there are no more perfect policy reactions available for the central bank. "When you hit the brakes you risk both economic and financial accidents and we just lived through a financial accident."
☆ Mohamed El-Erian on SVB fallout: Depositors are fine, there's no need to worry anymore
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMohamed El-Erian on SVB fallout: Depositors are fine, there's no need to worry anymoreMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss his thoughts on the backstop provided to SVB, if other banks will have similar issues as SVB, and much more.
☆ Here's why you should expect a housing rebound, according to a top economist at the National Association of Realtors
  + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
On tap today we've got a great interview with a top real estate economist and this week's best markets stories, including updates on the Silicon Valley Bank meltdown. Nadia Evangelou: What we see in the data is that the housing market will likely pick up in the coming months, in the spring season. NE: It seems that homesales activity has bottomed out, and 2023 will be the turning point for the housing market. Due to low inventory, even though there are relatively few buyers on the market, housing demand continues to outpace housing supply. We expect 4.5 million homes to be sold in 2023, and about 5.3 million homes to be sold in 2024.
☆ Cratering Silicon Valley Bank's troubles could be the first sign of a new financial crisis. Here's what Burry, Ackman and El-Erian have to say.
  + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Cratering Silicon Valley Bank's troubles could be the first sign of a new financial crisis. While some say the US banking system is solid, others think this could be the first sign of a new financial crisis. Well, and highlighting the current economic/financial/policy fluidity, we have something: banking system worries," El-Erian said on Twitter. Silicon Valley Bank going under would be exponentially worse. Activist Investor Ryan Cohen"Does this mean I don't have to pay back Silicon Valley Bank?"
☆ Silicon Valley Bank crisis: Everything you need to know about SVB Financial as its share collapse rattles major stocks
  + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
SVB Financial's share plunge is dragging on major bank stocks like JPMorgan and Bank of America. Here's everything you need to know about Silicon Valley Bank and its parent company SVB Financial. SVB is a Santa Clara-based bank that lends money to and takes deposits from Silicon Valley tech startups. Why has SVB's stock price crashed? "The failure of SVB Financial could destroy an important long-term driver of the economy as VC-backed companies rely on SVB for loans and holding their operating cash," he said on Twitter Thursday evening.
☆ The Fed is excessively data-dependent, says Mohamed El-Erian
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is excessively data-dependent, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether the Federal Reserve is still data-dependent, what the yield curve inversion means for the economy, and more.
☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Allianz's Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether the Federal Reserve is still data-dependent, what the yield curve inversion means for the economy, and more.
☆ The risk of a stock-market crash just shot up after Fed boss Powell signaled bigger rate hikes, Mohamed El-Erian says
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Fed boss Jerome Powell's latest comments boost the risk of a crash in stocks, Mohamed El-Erian has warned. The comments "could risk both economic well-being and financial stability," top economist El-Erian said. "Yet once again, remarks by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell fueled considerable volatility in markets that could risk both economic well-being and financial stability." But Powell's comments suggest a 50-point rise is back on the table for next month. Read more: Brace for US stocks to crash again – their extreme valuations echo the 2022 bear market, Morgan Stanley strategists warn
☆ El-Erian says the Fed is dragging the U.S. into an unnecessary recession
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The Federal Reserve "flip-flopping" on monetary policy is threatening to send the U.S. economy into a recession, economist Mohamed El-Erian said Wednesday. "We're going to have a recession made at the Fed," El-Erian told CNBC during a " Squawk Box " interview. "There's no reason the U.S. economy should go into recession other than a Fed policy mistake." On top of that, traders repriced their expectations for rate hikes ahead. El-Erian said much of the economic anxiety can be laid at the feet of Fed officials, who he said should have held to their more aggressive hikes rather than the 25 basis point increase approved Feb. 1.
☆ Markets are pricing in higher odds of a bigger Fed rate hike this month as Powell delivers hawkish testimony and key bond yields top highest level since 2007
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Fed funds futures pricing suggests 61.6% odds of a half-point increase, up from 31.4% on Monday. Getting inflation back to 2% "is likely to be bumpy," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told senators. There's a 61.6% probability the Fed will raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points on March 22, according to the CME FedWatch tool tracking fed funds futures pricing. The slowdown followed four straight increases of 75 basis points. The probability for a move of 25 basis points were still larger, at 56.3%.
☆ The stock market is getting the jitters as this bearish signal flashes red again. Here's why the surge in bond yields is spooking the bulls.
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
The bond market is capturing a shift higher in interest-rate expectations, which is bad news for stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note breached 4% this week for the first time since November. And high bond yields may be here to stay, according to billionaire investors such as Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach. And this change of sentiment is basically what's reflected by the latest jump in bond yields, which has corresponded with declines in stocks. What's next for bond yields?
☆ Why European inflation numbers are relevant to us
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhy European inflation numbers are relevant to usMohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the need for stabilization in the 2-year note, why European inflation numbers matter, and more.
☆ El-Erian says the Fed should go back to raising interest rates more aggressively
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The Federal Reserve faces two policy choices when it meets later this month, neither of which is particularly appealing, economist Mohamed El-Erian said Thursday. Markets expect the central bank to hike its benchmark interest rate another 0.25 percentage point when it next meets on March 21-22. But they also are making room for the possibility of a 0.50-point increase, an alternative El-Erian thinks is preferable, though not ideal. "If they are truly data-dependent, then they should go back to 50" basis points, El-Erian said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." A basis point is equal to 0.01 percentage point.
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