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☆ Morgan Stanley names its favorite stocks in tech — and gives one nearly 60% upside
  + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Morgan Stanley named its top picks in tech in a March 13 note. Morgan Stanley gave AMD an overweight rating, and a price target of $87 — a level that the stock reached on March 14. It gave ServiceNow a price target of $612, or around 44% upside. Amazon Morgan Stanley sees Amazon as the large-cap internet name in the best position, with "durable retail revenue growth and inflecting retail profitability." It gave Amazon a price target of $150, or nearly 60% upside.
☆ As markets turn rocky, these global stocks look resilient and are expected to rally
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Stocks slid, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its fifth straight day of declines on Monday, while the 2-year Treasury yield tumbled . The screen threw up a mix of health care, consumer, utility and even some financial stocks. Canadian financial services firm Fairfax Financial Holdings and Japanese natural gas provider Tokyo Gas got among the highest expected earnings growth for this year – at more than 150% each. British bank HSBC also made it to the list, with nearly 50% expected earnings growth and 23% average upside. Italian luxury sports car maker Ferrari made the screen, with 21% expected earnings growth and around 20% upside.
☆ Sell any stock rebound resulting from banking-system intervention, Morgan Stanley CIO says
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Sell bounces in the stock market as the impact of SVB's failure plays out, said Morgan Stanley. "We suggest selling any bounces ... until we make new bear market lows, at a minimum," said CIO Mike Wilson. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after the lender faced a $1.8 billion loss on the sale of a bond portfolio whose value was hurt by the Fed's aggressive rate hikes. Wilson said the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and surrounding events serve as "just one more supporting factor" for its outlook for negative earnings growth outlook.
☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says sell any bounce on this government intervention, next leg of bear market has begun
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The bear is back and raging in the wake of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank , and poised to hit new lows, according to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer. "We suggest selling any bounces on a government intervention to quell the immediate liquidity crisis at SVB and other institutions until we make new bear market lows, at a minimum." Still, Wilson sees a murky path ahead for the market, believing that earnings growth expectations remain "materially too high" and markets are more likely to "price that risk more quickly." An end to this volatile bear market won't come until investors see earnings disappointments priced in before those revisions appear, Wilson said. This could also mark the beginning of a sharp move in the earnings revision process that brings price-to-earnings multiples as low as 13 to 15 times and creates the "final low" for this bear market, he added.
☆ 2 top Wall Street strategists are warning that stocks are susceptible to more declines in March as investors anticipate weaker earnings and the Fed hurls the economy into recession
  + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Wilson sees a deterioration in earnings expectations developing in March. Two of Wall Street's most widely-followed strategist are warning that the month of March could see the unraveling of the stock market. For Wilson's part, he sees forward earnings expectations continuing to deteriorate despite recent optimism, and thinks that investors will start getting ahead of this turn sometime this month. Stocks tend to figure it out a month early and trade lower and this cycle has illustrated that pattern perfectly. Morgan StanleyWilson has also pointed out in recent notes that stocks remain historically overvalued relative to where bond yields are.
☆ The Fed is 'monomaniacal' about raising unemployment and is making a mistake with inflation, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says
  + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
He told CNBC there was no need for the Fed to be so concerned about rising wages and inflation. Already, Fed officials have hiked interest rates by 450 basis-points, with markets now seeing a 50-basis-point hike later this month. But while central bankers are concerned over rising wages, which could fuel future inflation, they are necessary to fix structural supply gaps in the labor market, Siegel said. "I think their focus on just how tight is the labor market – suddenly a monomaniacal type of a focus – is the wrong way to go about it," he said. He added that central bankers were also making a mistake about inflation.
☆ Brace for US stocks to crash again – their extreme valuations echo the 2022 bear market, Morgan Stanley strategists warn
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
US stocks look as overvalued as when the 2022 bear market kicked off, Morgan Stanley warned. "The stock market and the credit market are fighting the Federal Reserve's likely path of rising interest rates. But the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management team said that rally has dragged valuations — an assessment of a stock's fundamental worth — to extreme levels. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's gloomy outlook echoes the bearish view held by the bank's top strategist. Read more: The bear market rally isn't over yet as stocks just survived a crucial test, Morgan Stanley CIO says
☆ Morgan Stanley: Buy these 16 tech stocks to protect your portfolio from disappointing earnings and a coming market downturn
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
US stocks have shown strength recently but haven't hit their lows yet, according to Morgan Stanley. That's the latest message from top investing minds at Morgan Stanley, including chief US equity strategist Mike Wilson and strategist Andrew Pauker. In fact, margin expectations — as illustrated via net margin revisions — have retreated at the highest rate since the financial crisis, Morgan Stanley researchers found. 16 tech stocks that will outperform in weaknessIn the note, Morgan Stanley's strategists highlighted an unconventional investing strategy for the coming earnings weakness: buying technology stocks. Below are 16 stocks that have the strongest risk-reward prospects within the technology sector for the next 12 months, according to Morgan Stanley.
☆ The speculative rally in tech and meme stocks is out of control again and some could plummet 20%, Morgan Stanley's chief equities strategist says
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Big tech and meme stocks are surging in a speculative rally, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said. Wilson urged investors to get out of those risky areas of the market, as some names could lose 20% of their value. He has stayed bearish on stocks amid the 2023 rally, and predicted a 26% market crash to come in the coming months. "There's a lot of stuff that's gotten dragged along here that's wildly speculative now, in my viewing. While Wilson said the bear market rally still had room to run, he's been bearish on stocks for months and has called this year's rebound a "bull trap" for investors.
☆ Here's why hawkish Powell testimony might not derail the stock market rally
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Today, all eyes will be on central bank chairman Jerome Powell as he begins two days of hearings on Capitol Hill. Chairman of the Federal Reserve nominee Jerome Powell testifies during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee November 28, 2017 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Fed policy aside, the stock market has marched higher to start the year, with the S&P 500 gaining about 6% over the last nine weeks. US stock futures rise early Tuesday, as investors await the two-day testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The bear market rally isn't over yet as stocks just survived a crucial test.
☆ The bear market rally isn't over yet as stocks just survived a crucial test, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Mike Wilson sees a market rally in the short term, but not enough to pivot from his bearish outlook. An ongoing earnings recession is driving a bear market in the long term, he added. "Equity markets survived a crucial test of support last week that suggests this bear market rally is not ready to end just yet," he wrote, referring to S&P 500 remaining above its 200-day average. Previously, he has argued that 2023's strong market rally was a "bull trap," that would soon give way to a massive sell-off. "Our view remains the same — the bear market is not over — but we acknowledge that Friday's price action may extend it a few more weeks.
☆ Bank of America's stock chief warns the S&P 500 could fall another 26% as valuations remain too elevated and decades of market history show half of the criteria for a bottom still aren't being met
  + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 3,000, they said. In a note this week, Wilson said that the S&P 500 remains overvalued relative to history by price-to-earnings and price-to-sales metrics. S&P 500 P/E multiples are 9% above their median while P/Sales multiples are 23% above median," Wilson said. "History implies that for the current level of real rates the S&P 500 multiple is ~2.5x overvalued," the chief market strategist said. Wilson's end-of-year target for the S&P 500 is 3,900, while Krishna and Kolanovic have targets of 3,725 and 4,200, respectively.
☆ These are the highest quality stocks in the S&P 500 that could win in this volatile market
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Quality stocks are about to outperform this year, according to Bank of America. Against such a backdrop, equity strategist Savita Subramanian at Bank of America advised investors to own high quality stocks — specifically stocks with a rated high quality by S & P. A basket of such stocks outperformed low quality stocks by 1.2% in February. "Tailwinds for Low Quality from fiscal and monetary stimulus are now over, and we recommend owning High Quality stocks," she added. To be sure, Subramanian said that while high quality shares are still lagging low quality shares year-to-date, the bank anticipates the economy entering a downturn, during which quality factors have typically outperformed. With this in mind, CNBC screened for stocks in the S & P 500 that had the highest quality rating of A+ as determined by S & P Global Market Intelligence.
☆ The chief investment strategist at a $540 billion firm explains why the stock market may have already bottomed for the year — and why he sees opportunity in the market's most beaten-down names
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Wes Crill believes the stock market may have already bottomed, according to historical precedence. In the long term, he's bullish on value stocks once again taking the reigns as market leaders. "In fact, the average return for value stocks was a little bit higher in periods where the overall stock market was positive." Across Wall Street, Crill's not the only one with a longer-term overweight towards value stocks. Instead, he says investors should stick to what history dictates works best: value stocks over a long time horizon.
☆ Top investors share 3 tips for buying stocks in this turbulent market
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Markets have been volatile of late, leading investors to wonder which corner of the market to seek refuge in. Investors are worrying that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for longer amid a renewed focus on hotter-than-expected inflation . Higher rates for longer is expected to be bad news for growth stocks such as tech, which tumbled last year as the era of zero rates ended. Some Big Tech stocks are now "quite mature," Hawtin said, noting that Alphabet and Facebook are essentially dependent on advertising. Steve Eisman of "The Big Short" fame said Monday that gone are the days when investors could win by simply buying technology stocks.
☆ Top Wall Street strategists and money managers are warning that the risk-reward ratio for stocks is at its worst since the 2008 crisis. Here are 10 places they say to put your money instead with furth
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
In other words, the risk-reward ratio for stocks — or the equity risk premium — has to make sense, or else why take the risk by investing in them? 10 places to investDespite the lackluster outlook for stocks, strategists still say there are plenty of investing opportunities. The Vanguard US Quality Factor ETF (VFQY) and the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) offer exposure to the above areas of the market. This supports our preference for emerging markets, and our preference for Germany and consumer stocks in Europe. Within defensives, we like consumer staples over healthcare, which we downgraded this month.
☆ Morgan Stanley's chief stock strategist warns that the 2023 rally is a 'bull trap' and pain is coming for investors in March
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The rally in stocks is a "bull trap" and investors have more pain coming, Morgan Stanley warned. The downside could come as soon as March, as the S&P 500 is at a critical testing point. "With the equity market showing signs of exhaustion after the last Fed meeting, the S&P 500 is at critical technical support. "Ultimately, we think this rally is a bull trap," the note later added. Bottom line, the US Dollar and rates could determine the short term path of stock prices while earnings will ultimately tell us if this is a new bull market or bull trap," strategists warned.
☆ These fortress stocks are beating the market this year as a perilous March looms
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The stock market in March is looking grim, but certain "fortress" stocks can allow investors to play defense and beat the market. With this in mind, CNBC screened for fortress stocks that can withstand and outperform the market. However, while shares have gained more than 9% in 2023, the stock has tumbled 15% over the past 12 months. Edison has also shown steady growth, with shares up 7% over the past 12 months. Shares have rallied more than 6% in 2023, but they are down almost 11% over the past 12 months.
☆ CNBC Daily Open: Stocks rebound from their worst week this year — but analysts aren't optimistic
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 27, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets pulled back from their lows of last week and managed to stage a rebound. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
☆ CNBC Daily Open: Stocks rebound as Treasury yields dip, but analysts aren't optimistic
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 27, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Regardless of what happens, analysts from JPMorgan's Mislav Matejka to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson aren't too optimistic. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
☆ Morgan Stanley's top stock strategist Mike Wilson says the bear market could resume in March
  + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Mike Wilson, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note to clients on Monday that the S & P 500 was on the verge of falling back into a bear market. "With the equity market showing signs of exhaustion after the last Fed meeting, the S & P 500 is at critical technical support. Given our view on earnings, March is a high risk month for the bear market to resume," Wilson said. The S & P 500 fell into a bear market — or 20% below its record high — last year amid a rapid rise in interest rates. The stock market then had its worst week of the year, with the S & P 500 falling 2.67%.
☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks still have 60% further downside as sky-high valuations remain more inflated than every other crash over the last 100 years exce
  + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
John Hussman says stocks remain more overvalued than nearly every bubble over the last century. This week, Mike Wilson and Albert Edwards also said stocks remain highly overvalued. Right now, that risk-reward ratio for stocks is abysmal, says John Hussman, the president of the Hussman Investment Trust who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes. Hussman FundsTo illustrate how out-of-whack stocks are relative to Treasury rates, Hussman compiled the below chart. This would mean around 60% further downside from levels seen earlier this week, when Hussman published the commentary.
☆ The stock market's euphoric rally has been a head fake, Wall Street's top strategists warn
  + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
The year-to-date rally can't last, according to Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. He added: "This is a perfect analogy for where equity investors find themselves today, and quite frankly, where they've been many times over the past decade." Goldman Sachs' chief US equity strategist David Kostin has said he is also skeptical of the market's gains so far in 2023. Meanwhile, JPMorgan's top stock strategist Marko Kolanovic, a long-time equities bull, says investors should ditch stocks because a recession is coming.
☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com crash warns stock valuations are at 'nosebleed' levels — and suggests that tech stocks could be the market's 'Achilles' heel'
  + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Societe Generale's Albert Edwards warns stock valuations are at 'nosebleed' levels. Historically, when yields are low, higher stock valuations are accepted as investors seek yield. But currently high yields in the Treasury market mean stock valuations, on a historical basis, should be lower. Societe GeneraleEdwards said the drop in long-term growth expectations could be assigned to a deteriorating outlook for tech stocks. Societe Generale"An expensive US CAPE ratio has long been justified by the US market's far higher weighting in tech," he said.
☆ Reddit-loving retail investors are making their chaotic presence felt again - and their risky behavior is fueling a stock rally that doesn't look sustainable
  + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Bullish sentiment has returned in a big way among retail investors as they've started the year piling record amounts into stocks. Speculative bets are backSome of what retail investors are buying has troubled observers. Different from 2021, however, is that institutional and retail investors look like they're on the same team, at least to a noticeable degree. To JPMorgan's Kolanovic, retail investors' optimism foreshadows future weakness in the stock market, as weak hands get wiped out by volatility, similar to how 2022 played out. With the Fed still set to tighten monetary policy, retail investors' enthusiasm for risky assets could backfire like it did last year.
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