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March 6 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 made little progress on Monday, closing slightly higher than its session low as U.S. Treasury yields pulled higher with investors braced for this week's testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the February jobs report. Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 2.72 points, or 0.07%, to end at 4,048.36 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) lost 12.59 points, or 0.11%, to 11,676.41. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer.

☆ Premarket stocks: What to watch as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is on the hot seat this week as he testifies before Congress. Powell will have some good news to report — when he last testified before Congress in June, the inflation rate was at 40-year-highs, nearing 9%. Investors will also be on edge — hawkish language or even an aggressive tone from Powell could lead to market volatility. Some Fed officials agree. Economists, business leaders, investors and even Fed officials aren’t really sure about what’s happening.

☆ Here's why hawkish Powell testimony might not derail the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today, all eyes will be on central bank chairman Jerome Powell as he begins two days of hearings on Capitol Hill. Chairman of the Federal Reserve nominee Jerome Powell testifies during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee November 28, 2017 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Fed policy aside, the stock market has marched higher to start the year, with the S&P 500 gaining about 6% over the last nine weeks. US stock futures rise early Tuesday, as investors await the two-day testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The bear market rally isn't over yet as stocks just survived a crucial test.

Rising bond yields tend to weigh on equity valuations, particularly those of growth and technology stocks, as higher rates reduce the value of future cash flows. "People are worried about the jobs number and the economic data because they're worried about what the Fed will do. And with potential Fed rate hikes their key concern, Monday's data had already dampened investor enthusiasm, said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 85 new highs and 92 new lows.

Shares of iPhone maker Apple Inc (AAPL.O), last up 2%, were the biggest boost for the S&P 500 index (.SPX) after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a "buy" rating. Correlation between S&P 500 and 2-year Treasury bond yieldsMonday's data likely dampened investor enthusiasm, said Shawn Cruz, head trading strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago. Six of 11 major S&P 500 sectors rose. Since Powell last spoke strong economic data and hotter than expected inflation have raised concerns the Fed will raise rates higher than expected or keep them higher for longer. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 74 new highs and 71 new lows.

☆ Morning Bid: Hopeful market awaits Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Coming off its best weekly performance since start of the year, the continent-wide STOXX might aim for another record high as traders await January retail sales data for the Eurozone later in the day. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued over the weekend, with San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly the latest to sound a warning on the inflationary threat. The market largely expects Powell to be hawkish this week but given his testimony comes before the jobs report is released, he will likely aim to keep all options open. Over in China, the country's leadership set a 5% target for economic growth this year, which analysts called conservative and pragmatic, as they kicked off the annual session of the National People's Congress. In the corporate world, Italian state lender CDP has bid for the fixed-line network of former phone monopoly Telecom Italia, rivalling an offering from U.S. firm KKR.

☆ Gold eases as traders fret about interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices ticked lower on Monday as central banks indicated further interest rate hikes to tame stubbornly high inflation, diminishing bullion's appeal as a hedge against price increases. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,853.99 per ounce, as of 0305 GMT, after climbing to its highest since Feb. 15 on Friday. Interest rate hikes to contain high inflation discourage investors from placing money in non-yielding assets such as gold. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Friday he could see U.S. rates in the 5.5%-5.75% range. Spot silver firmed 0.1% to $21.27 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.3% to $974.36 and palladium was down 0.2% at $1,449.82.

☆ Asia stocks rally, bonds tense for U.S. rate tests
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) climbed 1.0% to a three-month top, while South Korean stocks (.KS11) added 0.6% helped by a softer reading on inflation. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% and Nasdaq futures 0.2%, after rallying on Friday as bond yields eased back a little. Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will go by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22. The BOJ jolted markets in December when it unexpectedly widened the allowed trading band for 10-year bond yields to between -50 and +50 basis points. Friday's pullback in bond yields helped gold recover some ground and it was trading at $1,855 an ounce .

☆ Stocks week ahead: It's hell week on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The unflinching resilience of the US labor market is one of — if not the — greatest source of tension in today’s economy. That means the Fed’s already painful rate hikes are likely to continue until the job market simmers. In just one year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates from nearly zero to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% to cool the economy. The labor market is stronger than ever: The US added a shocking 517,000 jobs in January and knocked unemployment down to its lowest level since 1969. If the labor market remains strong, more Fed-induced pain lies ahead.

☆ More rate hikes are needed, says Fed’s Mary Daly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve policymakers will need to raise interest rates higher and keep them there longer to tackle the higher prices caused by sticky inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Saturday. Daly does not currently vote on Fed policy decisions but is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and participates in policy meetings. Her speech followed a week of similar warnings from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said Wednesday that he believes the Fed needs to raise its policy rate by half a percentage point at the next meeting. On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that painful interest rates could go higher than expected, citing a slew of recent stronger-than-expected economic data.

☆ Fed's Daly: tighter policy, for a longer time, 'likely' needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The acceleration of inflation in January "suggests that the disinflation momentum we need is far from certain," Daly said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Princeton Economic Policy Symposium. "In order to put this episode of high inflation behind us, further policy tightening, maintained for a longer time, will likely be necessary." Coming from Daly, whose views are typically in line with Fed leadership, the remarks may add to expectations that Fed policymakers will lift rates higher in coming months than the 5.1% that most of them had penciled in December. Fed policymakers will publish fresh projections for policy and the economy at the close of their upcoming March 21-22 meeting. Daly did not use her prepared remarks to offer a view on how big March's rate hike ought to be, or exactly how high rates should go.

At its latest meeting, the Fed laced its statement and minutes with a rider about cumulative tightening and uncertain lags. The gist of the argument is that the Fed doesn't deliver credit directly to the wider economy - banks and financial markets do. But few seem to doubt that these policy lags have shortened considerably over the decades. Showcasing the study in December, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly adopted a more dovish slant on the gap between the funds rate and tightening financial markets. "But investors should remain attentive to the occasional episodic disconnects observed between Fed guidance and some prominent indices of financial conditions," Clarida told clients.

☆ Analysis: With record diversity on their boards, Fed bank chiefs see lower chances of policy error
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.

☆ Nvidia cheer ripples through chips as investors assess Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, January 24, 2023. The MSCI all country share index (.MIWD00000PUS) was slightly firmer, adding to the year's 4.5% advance, after falling nearly 20% in 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasury was slightly firmer at 3.9254%. The Australian and New Zealand dollar were both slightly firmer against the dollar. Fed officials Mary Daly and Raphael Bostic are also due to make appearances later on Thursday.

☆ Asia stocks see bright side after Nvidia sounds upbeat
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Shares in the giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (2330.TW) rose 2.2% to lift Taiwan's benchmark (.TWII) 1.3%. A 4% gain for SK Hynix (000660.KS) and a 2% gain for Samsung (005930.KS) drove South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) 1% higher. The Bank of Korea also offered some relief by ending a year-long run of uninterrupted rate hikes with a pause - as expected. Wall Street indexes fell overnight and are eyeing their worst week of the year so far as stronger-than-forecast U.S. labour, inflation, retail sales and manufacturing figures have traders pricing interest rates staying higher for longer. "Markets have been forced to reprice interest rate expectations, not just higher, but also questioning the view that once peak rates are hit, central banks will pivot quickly to cutting interest rates," said ANZ economist Finn Robinson.

☆ Stocks struggle to make headway as rate rises loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) touched its lowest since Jan. 6 in early trade. Nasdaq futures (.NQc1) rose 0.9% after a revenue beat at chip designer Nvidia (NVDA.O) sent its shares up 9% after-hours. Oil nursed sharp overnight losses, and Brent crude futures clung to support around $80 a barrel on Thursday. "Markets have been forced to reprice interest rate expectations, not just higher, but also questioning the view that once peak rates are hit, central banks will pivot quickly to cutting interest rates," said ANZ economist Finn Robinson. The Bank of Korea did, however, offer some dose of relief by ending a year-long run of uninterrupted rate hikes with a pause.

☆ Wall St set for higher open as Nvidia outweighs Fed jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Futures cut some gains after data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. "Markets are tracking the earnings reports overnight from Nvidia," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. ET, Dow e-minis were up 39 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 15 points, or 0.38%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 106.25 points, or 0.88%. Analysts polled by Reuters predict a correction within the next three months even though they expect the S&P 500 (.SPX) to climb 5% by year-end. Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) fell 4.4% after the vaccine maker reaffirmed its annual sales forecast of $5 billion for its COVID-19 vaccines despite its fourth-quarter sales exceeding estimates.

☆ Morning Bid: Blue chips cheered up
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Its CEO Jensen Huang said use of its chips to power AI had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days." The Federal Reserve at least seems keen on the higher-for-longer message that's shaken world stock and bond markets this week. And as the minutes pre-date red-hot jobs and retail data for January, the message from Fed officials is probably even sterner now. A Reuters poll of equity analysts showed global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months.

☆ Stock futures rise on Wednesday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 0.6%. Nasdaq futures got a boost from Nvidia, which rose more than 8% after hours on better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and revenue. Inflation "remained well above" the Fed's 2% target and the labor market "remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices," according to the minutes. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at an event hosted by the Atlanta Fed Thursday morning. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a fireside chat in the afternoon.

☆ Brainard's move to the White House leaves a big gap for Biden to fill at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).

☆ Factbox: Some potential successors to Brainard at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, analysts and Fed observers are already swapping notes on potential replacements for Brainard at the Fed from a bench of economists aligned with Biden's Democrats, who control the U.S. Senate. MARY DALYDaly is president of the San Francisco Fed, ascending to that position in 2018 after 22 years at the regional Fed bank, including a stint as its director of research. Furman has been a prominent, Twitter-savvy commentator on macroeconomic and Fed policy. He has a PhD from the University of Virginia and served as a Fed economist for a little over a year in the mid-1990s. With a PhD from Stanford University, he's held staff positions at the Fed board and the San Francisco Fed, where he also served as president before moving to the New York Fed role in 2018.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Federal Reserve is testing how climate change could hurt big banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The largest six banks in the United States have been given until July to show the Federal Reserve what effects disastrous climate change scenarios could have on their bottom lines. The Federal Reserve first announced the pilot program in September, noting that Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo would participate. In its announcement the Federal Reserve stressed that the exercise “is exploratory in nature and does not have capital consequences.” It also said that it would not publish individual banks’ results. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told CNN in October Thursday that this was a learning and exploratory exercise for the Federal Reserve. The other side: Critics of the pilot program have argued that the Federal Reserve was overstepping its boundaries and that they might soon begin to enforce financial penalties.

☆ There'll be a rude awakening for investors who haven't realized the Fed's got a whole new playbook, says BlackRock iShares strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There's likely to be further pain ahead for US stocks, a BlackRock iShares strategist told Insider. Karim Chedid expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates above 5% for the whole of 2023. "Goldilocks doesn't save the day in our new playbook," he said, given the Fed is focused on inflation. "Goldilocks doesn't save the day in our new playbook," Chedid said. That reflects a new environment where the Fed's only priority is taming inflation, according to Chedid.

☆ As China reopens and data surprises, economists are starting to get less gloomy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The European Central Bank is expected to continue raising rates aggressively in the short-term as the euro zone economy proves more resilient than anticipated. Haussmann Visuals | Moment | Getty ImagesAfter China's reopening and a deluge of positive data surprises in recent weeks, economists are upgrading their previously gloomy outlooks for the global economy. Berenberg also upgraded its euro zone forecast in light of recent news flow, particularly falling gas prices, a consumer confidence recovery and a modest improvement in business expectations. watch now"As Germany is more exposed to gas risks than the euro zone as a whole, it suggests that the euro zone likely did not fare (much) worse than Germany late last year and may thus have avoided a significant contraction in Q4 GDP," Schmieding said. Berenberg therefore raised its calls for the annual average change to real GDP in 2023 from a 0.2% shrinkage to 0.3% growth.

☆ Markets don't believe the Fed when it comes to where rates are headed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

No matter how many times Federal Reserve officials say they're raising interest rates and keeping them there, the markets don't want to believe them. Recent comments from Fed presidents have tried, and failed, to nudge the market's view towards the [Federal Open Market Committee's] guidance." Traders are pricing in nearly an 80% probability that the FOMC approves a 0.25 percentage point rate increase when it releases its post-meeting decision Feb. 1, according to CME Group data . Doubts about the 'terminal rate' Markets, though, aren't buying it. The futures market also is indicating the likelihood of cuts of as much as half a percentage point by year-end.

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