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☆ Polish c.bankers see CPI falling from Q2 -minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WARSAW, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Most members of Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) said inflation in will start to gradually return towards the central bank's target rage from the second quarter of 2023, according to minutes from the sitting. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main interest rate unchanged at 6.75% in January. Reporting by Alan Charlish, Pawel FlorkiewiczOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Last week, Bailey signalled the tide was turning on inflation, even if it was too soon to declare victory. We have got the largest upside skew in our forecasts that we have ever had on inflation," Bailey said. Haskel aligned himself with Catherine Mann who also sees big upside risks to the BoE's price forecasts. By contrast, Tenreyro said the full force of the BoE's rate hikes over the last year had yet to be felt, with economic momentum already fading. "It's crucial to see it through, that we do enough to address potential upside risks to inflation," he said.

The central bank said that its policy stance remains focused on the withdrawal of accommodation, with four out of six members voting in favour of that position. Reuters GraphicsThe monetary policy committee (MPC), comprising three members from the central bank and three external members, raised the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) to 6.50% in a split decision. We have to remain unwavering in our commitment to bring down CPI headline inflation," RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, while announcing the committee’s decision. In a poll conducted ahead of the federal budget on Feb. 1, more than three-quarters of economists, 40 of 52, had expected the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 bps. Das said that the inflation-adjusted, real interest rate remains below the pre-pandemic levels and liquidity remains surplus, even though it is lower than during the pandemic.

☆ Bank of England's Mann doubles down on backing for rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Gergely Szakacs | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

After hiking interest rates to 4% last week, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) signalled it was close to pausing a run of increases which began in December 2021. Mann, consistently the most hawkish member of the MPC, said the risk of under-tightening policy far outweighed the alternative. "In my view, a tighten-stop-tighten-loosen policy boogie looks too much like fine-tuning to be good monetary policy. "From a risk-management point of view, monetary policy has to lean against these upside biases since wage and price inflation are still so high," she said. At the other end of the MPC spectrum, Dhingra and Tenreyro say over-tightening risked sending Britain's economy into an unnecessarily severe downturn, with the full force of the BoE's rate hikes yet to feed through.

☆ BoE's Pill says important not to raise interest rates too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Friday it was important not to raise borrowing costs too high, a day after the British central bank signalled it was close to pausing a run of interest rate hikes which began in December 2021. "We have to recognise that we have done a lot with monetary policy already," Pill told Times Radio. On Thursday, the BoE raised interest rates to 4%, their highest since 2008, but it dropped language it previously used about its readiness to act "forcefully" if needed to contain inflation pressures. "Interest rates have risen by almost 400 basis points over ... little more than a year and, given the lags in the transmission of monetary policy, there's quite a lot of the effects of those raises in interest rates still to come through," Pill said. While the MPC was determined to "see the job through," Pill also said: "It's also important that we enguard against the possibility of doing too much."

☆ Factbox: Bumper profits fuel surge in dividends, buybacks at oil firms
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Feb 3 (Reuters) - Energy firms are using a chunk of their bumper quarterly profits from surging natural gas and fuel prices to reward shareholders with higher dividends and share buybacks. The top 25 North American oil and gas companies by market capital posted a combined profit of $70.04 billion for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 186.3% higher than a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data. However, the record profits have renewed calls for a windfall tax, especially as sky-rocketing prices have fueled inflation around the globe. Below are some of the companies that have announced higher dividends and repurchases in recent weeks:Valero Energy Corp (VLO.N)Dividend: Increased quarterly dividend by 4.1% to $1.02 per shareNet Income in latest quarter: More than tripled to $3.11 billionExxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N)Dividend: Q4 per-share dividend of 91 cents, up 3 centsNet Income in latest quarter: Jumped 43.7% to $12.75 billionChevron Corp (CVX.N)Dividend: Raised quarterly dividend by 9 cents to $1.51 per shareShare buyback: Approves a $75 billion buyback programNet Income in latest quarter: Jumped 25.6% to $6.35 billionConocoPhillips (COP.N)Dividend: Declares variable dividend of 60 cents per shareShare buyback: Raised existing share repurchase authorization by $20 billionNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 23% to $3.2 billionCHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP (CHK.O)Dividend: Increased total quarterly dividend to $3.16/shr from $2.32/shrNet Income in latest quarter: Stood at $883 mln, compared with $345 mln year-ago lossBAKER HUGHES CO (BKR.O)Dividend: Increased quarterly dividend by 5.5% to 19 cents per shareShare buyback: Authorized an additional $2 blnNet Income in latest quarter: Fell 38.1% to $182 millionSLB (formerly Schlumberger) (SLB.N)Dividend: Increased quarterly cash dividend 43% to $0.25 per shareShare buyback: Resumed share repurchase programNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 77.2% to $1.07 billionMarathon Petroleum Corp (MPC.N)Share buyback: Approved an additional $5 billion in stock repurchasesNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 329.1% to $3.32 billionPhillips 66 (PSX.N)Share buyback: Plans to return up to $12 bln more to shareholders by end-2024 through dividends and buybacksNet Income in latest quarter: Jumped 1241% to $5.4 billionMarathon Oil Corp (MRO.N)Dividend: Expects to raise base dividend by an additional 11% after closing the purchase of EnsignNet Income in latest quarter: Climbed 344% to $817 millionEOG Resources Inc (EOG.N)Dividend: Raised regular dividend by 10%, $1.50/shr special dividendNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 160.6% to $2.85 billionAPA Corp (APA.O)Dividend: Doubled quarterly dividend to an annualized rate of $1.00/shrNet Income in latest quarter: Stood at $422 million, compared with a loss of $113 millionCOTERRA ENERGY INC (CTRA.N)Dividend: Increased dividend by 3 cents to 68 cents/shrNet Income in latest quarter: Surged 1768.75% to $1.2 billionPATTERSON-UTI (PTEN.O)Dividend: Doubled quarterly cash dividend to 8 cents/shrShare buyback: Increased share repurchase authorization to $300 millionNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 181% to $61.5 millionTEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORP (TPL.N)Share buyback: Approved purchase of up to $250 mln worth of sharesNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 55% to $129.8 mlnCANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD (CNQ.TO)Dividend: Raised quarterly dividend by 13% to 85 Canadian cents/shrNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 27.7% to C$2.81 blnCenovus Energy Inc (CVE.TO)Dividend: Announced a variable dividend of C$0.114Share buyback: Plans to renew repurchase programNet Income in latest quarter: Climbed 192% to C$1.61 blnIMPERIAL OIL (IMO.TO)Dividend: Raised quarterly dividend by 29% to 44 Canadian cents/shrShare buyback: Announced a C$1.5 bln substantial issuer bid to buy back sharesNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 123.6% to C$2.03 blnTOURMALINE OIL CORP (TOU.TO)Dividend: Announced a special dividend of C$2.25/shr; raised quarterly dividend by 11% to 25 Canadian cents/shrNet Income in latest quarter: Rose 481% to C$2.09 blnReporting by Sourasis Bose, Ankit Kumar and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Softening their forecasts of recession this year, the BoE's nine interest rate-setters voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate to 4.0% - its highest since 2008 - from 3.5%. The announcement comes a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve slowed the pace of its rate hikes with a smaller quarter-point move, but said it expected further increases would be needed. The European Central Bank raised rates by a half a percentage point on Thursday to 2.5%. They said further interest rate hikes would hinge on evidence of more persistent price pressures appearing. That represented a signal to investors that its sharp run of rate hikes might be coming to an end.

Softening their forecasts of recession this year, the BoE's nine interest rate-setters voted 7-2 to increase Bank Rate to 4.0% - its highest since 2008 - from 3.5%. The European Central Bank looks set to raise rates by a half a percentage point later on Thursday to 2.5%. Previously the BoE had forecast 2023 inflation at around 5%. Previously the BoE has said that "it will respond forcefully, as necessary" to signs of further inflation pressure, and "further increases in Bank Rate may be required". As a result, the BoE saw Britain's economy still below its pre-pandemic size until after 2025, representing seven lost years for growth.

☆ Marathon Petroleum tops profit estimates on high demand, tight supplies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Arunima Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A Marathon Petroleum banner covers an Andeavor sign outside the El Paso refinery following a closed $23 billion deal after the Ohio-based Marathon bought the Texas-based company, forming one of the largest global refiners in El Paso, Texas, U.S., October 1, 2018. REUTERS/Julio-Cesar Chavez/File PhotoJan 31 (Reuters) - Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC.N) on Tuesday beat Wall Street expectations for quarterly profit as its margins soared amid tight supplies and high demand for refined products. The top U.S. refiner also approved an additional $5 billion in stock repurchase, while rival Phillips 66 (PSX.N) raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to 97 cents per share. Meanwhile, realized refining margins for rival Phillips 66 jumped 65% to $19.73 per barrel in the October to December quarter. Phillips 66 reported an adjusted income of $4 per share, missing analysts' expectations of $4.35 per share.

☆ Marathon Petroleum beats profit estimates on high demand, tight supplies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] A Marathon Petroleum banner covers an Andeavor sign outside the El Paso refinery following a closed $23 billion deal after the Ohio-based Marathon bought the Texas-based company, forming one of the largest global refiners in El Paso, Texas, U.S., October 1, 2018. REUTERS/Julio-Cesar Chavez/File PhotoCompanies Marathon Petroleum Corp FollowJan 31 (Reuters) - Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC.N) on Tuesday beat Wall Street expectations for quarterly profit as refining margins soared amid tight supplies and higher demand for refined products. Marathon's crude capacity utilization was about 94%, resulting in total throughput of 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) for the fourth quarter, which was roughly flat year-over-year. Refining and marketing margin rose to $28.82 per barrel for the reported quarter compared with last year's $15.88 per barrel. Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Jobs report to give clues about where economy is headed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-29 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Investors will get another clue when the January jobs report is released on Friday. Economists predict that 185,000 jobs were added last month, a slowdown from the gain of 223,000 jobs in December and 263,000 in November. A further deceleration in the labor market would likely please the Fed, as it would show that last year’s rate hikes are successfully taking some air out of the economy. Along those lines, average hourly earnings, a measure of wages that is also part of the monthly jobs report, are expected to increase 4.3% year-over year. So far, tech earnings season is not off to an inspiring start, with Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC) and IBM (IBM) all reporting weak results.

☆ Here comes the biggest week of earnings. Plus an AI ode to the Dow
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

While only six companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are reporting next week, about 20% of the S & P 500 reports, making it the biggest week of earnings this season. The Dow and the S & P 500 gained 2.2% and 2.9% this week, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 4.7%. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Drop in business activity flags UK recession risk - flash PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The fall contrasted with a slight rise in business activity in the euro zone. "Weaker-than-expected PMI numbers in January underscore the risk of the UK slipping into recession," S&P Global's Chief Business Economist, Chris Williamson, said. However, a widely expected fall in output this year will weigh on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as it considers how much further to raise interest rates on Feb. 2. Tuesday's PMI data showed that prices charged by businesses rose at the slowest rate since August 2021, although the increase was still steep by historic standards. Businesses cut a small number of jobs, in contrast to the rapid hiring through much of 2021 and 2022.

In November, the State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee unexpectedly pushed up its key rate by 100 bps, meaning it has now raised it by a total of 725 bps since January 2022. The country - struggling after last year's devastating nationwide floods - posted a 24.5% annual inflation rate in January. Although some moderation was seen in inflation in November and December, it remains high and core inflation has been on a rising trend for the last 10 months, the central bank added. The lack of fresh financial inflows and ongoing debt repayments have led to a steady drawdown in official reserves, the central bank said. "The current account deficit narrowed by around 60 percent to $3.7 billion in H1-FY23," the central bank said.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps yield control policy unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

MARKET REACTION:The Japanese stock market cheered the BOJ's decision with the Nikkei share average (.N225) jumping more than 2% after the midday break. Therefore, among equities, we think Japanese financials sector will have a rerating of valuations over the next 3-6 months." That could escalate when the new governor of the bank will be announced and towards the policy meeting in March." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE"The can has been kicked down the road and the attention will shift to the next meeting. CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"I think the speculations will still continue.

☆ Guggenheim downgrades Microsoft, says vulnerabilities may be exacerbated during an economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Now is the time to sell shares of tech giant Microsoft , according to analysts at Guggenheim. The firm on Tuesday downgraded the shares to sell from neutral and introduced a $212 price target, implying a more than 11% downside for Microsoft. Microsoft may disappoint on upcoming earnings numbers in the second quarter of 2023 and in their full-year guidance as well. "While most investors see MSFT as a large stable business that can weather any storm, it does have vulnerabilities, some of which could be exacerbated by this macro slowdown," analyst John DiFucci wrote. The biggest headwind the firm sees is MPC business, where consensus numbers are expecting slight growth after several quarters of declines.

☆ Polish central banker Kotecki says no room for rate cut this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WARSAW, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Double-digit inflation in Poland leaves no room for loosening monetary policy this year but interest rates will not rise further, central banker Ludwik Kotecki told Reuters. Kotecki said even talking about lower rates at the moment risked weakening the impact of monetary policy. Kotecki's views follow comments last week by Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinski, who said he remained hopeful a rate cut could happen this year, despite still rising inflation rates. The MPC has de facto ended the hike cycle, although formally it is in a phase of monetary policy tightening. Talking about rate cuts at the moment is, in my opinion, a communication error," that weakens the impact of monetary policy, he said.

☆ The 10 biggest winners in the S&P 500 this year were led by an oil giant Warren Buffett owns. The top stocks saw a combined $357 billion increase in market value.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Oil stocks dominated the S&P 500's top 10 winners this year as commodity prices spiked. These are the index's 10 best performing stocks in 2022, which added a combined $357 billion in market value. Buffett also owns a stake in Chevron, which was the 17th best S&P 500 performer in 2022 with a gain of about 50%. Combined, the top 10 performing S&P 500 stocks in 2022 added a total of $357 billion in market value. SchlumbergerThe exterior of a Schlumberger Corporation building is pictured in West Houston ReutersTicker: SLB2022 Return: 76.7%Market Value Gained: $33.5 billion5.

Organizations: & $

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street's biggest winners and losers in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The S&P 500 is down nearly 20% and with two trading days left in the year, investors’ hopes of a miraculous recovery have been dashed. The energy sector has so far returned more than 60% this year, significantly outperforming every other S&P 500 sector. Occidental Petroleum has been the biggest gainer of the year in the S&P 500, up 122% year-to-date. The energy sector reported the highest year-over-year earnings growth of all 11 sectors, at 137.3%. Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) is also down about 70%, making the auto tech company the third worst performer this year.

☆ Marathon Galveston Bay refinery in Texas shut by cold
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies Marathon Petroleum Corp FollowHOUSTON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Marathon Petroleum Corp's (MPC.N) 593,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Galveston Bay Refinery in Texas City, Texas, shut down on Friday because of malfunctions caused by cold weather, said people familiar with plant operations. About half of the refinery shut as temperatures fell overnight. Units in the other half of the refinery were shut on Friday morning, the sources said. Marathon spokesperson Jamal Kheiry declined to discuss operations at the refinery. The Galveston Bay Refinery is the second largest in the United States.

More than 1.5 million homes and businesses lost power, oil refineries in Texas cut gasoline and diesel production on equipment failures, and heating and power prices surged on the losses. Oil and gas output from North Dakota to Texas suffered freeze-ins, cutting supplies. Freeze-ins - in which ice crystals halt oil and gas production - this week trimmed production in North Dakota's oilfields by 300,000 to 350,000 barrels per day, or a third of normal. Power prices on Texas's grid also spiked to $3,700 per megawatt hour, prompting generators to add more power to the grid before prices fell back as thermal and solar supplies came online. That is the biggest drop in output since the February 2021 freeze knocked out power for millions in Texas.

That works out to a 31.2% return on total average short interest of $973.6 billion throughout the year, according to S3 Partners. Stanphyl Capital portfolio manager Mark Spiegel, who has been short Tesla "constantly, in varying size" since 2014, said a bet against Tesla was his fund's most profitable individual short position this year. While higher interest rates have punished growth stocks, some investors believe Tesla CEO Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter is diverting his time running the electric car company. Long-short hedge funds, which bet on stock prices rising or falling, posted a 9.7% loss through November, according to data provider HFR. Charles Lemonides, portfolio manager at $226 billion hedge fund ValueWorks LLC, believes tight monetary policy will weigh on risk appetite next year.

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, says inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.

Marathon, and Valero's market valuations reached record highs in 2022; while Phillips 66 and PBF's are near highs reached in 2019. LESS CAPACITY, MORE PROFITSWhen the pandemic hit, big U.S. refiners closed numerous facilities that were less profitable than other operations. Processing capacity is expected to increase by 1 million bpd per day in 2022 and 1.6 million bpd in 2023, mostly in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The margins to produce gasoline were consistently higher throughout 2022 than in the last several years as a result of the Ukraine war. A series of closures have caused U.S. processing capacity to decline even as refiners have become more profitable.

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