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read moreTwo-year yields crept back up to 4.46%, retracing a little of last week's sharp inflation-driven drop of 33 basis points to a low of 4.29%. The bond market's warnings of recession were not what Wall Street wanted to hear, and they left S&P 500 futures flat on Friday, while Nasdaq futures inched up 0.1%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.7% and FTSE futures 0.3%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) bounced 0.6%, after slipping for two sessions. The dollar edged up to 140.20 yen and away from its recent low of 137.67, but faced resistance around 140.70/80.

☆ Morning Bid: Cat, mouse and 5%
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. The cat-and-mouse game between the Fed and financial markets has intensified around 5% peak interest rates next year as next week's Thanksgiving holiday hoves into view. In Europe, the euro , euro bond yields and bank stocks (.SX7P) climbed on Friday as the European Central Bank prepared for the start the biggest withdrawal of cash from the euro zone's banking system in its short history. The crypto world continued to lick its wounds amid unfolding revelations and reverberations surrounding the collapse of exchange FTX. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ European markets set for modestly higher open as investors assess interest rate path
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are set to climb cautiously on Friday as investors continue to assess the trajectory of monetary policy after some tough statements from U.S. Federal Reserve officials. Global markets took some heart from lower-than-expected consumer and wholesale inflation prints last week, prompting bets that the central bank would have to slow its aggressive interest rate hikes. However, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Thursday that "the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive." Bullard suggested that the terminal federal funds rate could reach the 5% to 7% range, higher than the market is currently pricing. U.S. stock futures were mixed in early premarket trade as investors weighed the prospect of higher interest rates, and shares in Asia-Pacific were also uncertain, as Japan's core consumer price index for October rose at its fastest annual pace in 40 years.

[1/2] Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 6, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar rose on Thursday as investors digested mixed U.S. economic data, while the British pound fell as the UK government unveiled its latest budget update. Yet the dollar climbed on Thursday after U.S. retail sales data for October, released on Wednesday, came in stronger than expected. Traders will also scrutinise speeches from numerous Fed officials on Thursday for hints about rate hikes. It plunged 3.7% on Thursday last week when U.S. consumer inflation data for October came in lower than expected.

☆ These are the hard lessons we learned this year — and what we got right
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

First, let's look at three tough lessons we learned and how we managed through the turmoil. Second, we'll discuss three investments that were right for this market and challenged macroeconomic backdrop. If inflation doesn't cool enough, the Fed will likely remain hawkish, and if Bullard is right rates could end up much higher. When China last week reduced quarantine time for international travelers, Club holdings Estee Lauder (EL), Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Starbucks (SBUX) got a boost. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Stocks fall as fears of more big Fed rate hikes resurface
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow was off about 30 points, or 0.1%, in midday trading following comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard about the possibility of much bigger interest rate hikes. Jefferson didn’t comment specifically about how much higher he thinks rates need to go though in order to get inflation in check. In addition, Bullard has a vote on rate hikes at the Fed’s next meeting in December, but he does not have a say on interest rates in 2023. The seven Fed governors and the New York Fed president are always on the FOMC. The St. Louis Fed president doesn’t get a vote again until 2025.

☆ Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.

☆ Powell says Fed officials recommitted to meeting new ethics standards
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged on Wednesday the U.S. central bank's latest ethics stumbles and said it was working hard to make sure it meets its new, very stringent standards. "The public's trust is really the Fed's, and any central bank's, most important asset," Powell said at a news conference after the end of the central bank's latest policy meeting. Citing the new ethics standards imposed on policymakers earlier this year, Powell said "anytime one of us, one of the policymakers, violates or falls short of those rules, we do risk undermining that trust." Powell spoke in the wake of the latest developments in a controversy that's dogged the Fed for little over a year now. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Leslie Adler and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A year after trading scandal, Fed is again under ethics spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

At the same time, an in-house Inspector General (IG) investigation into the regional Fed trading activities still hasn't been released and it's unclear when it will be. Unresolved in that process are publicly available disclosures for top staff at regional Fed banks. Right now, only disclosures for the Fed chief, members of the Fed's Board of Governors, top central bank staff and regional bank presidents are available. Given the quasi-private nature of the 12 regional Fed banks, there's no formal mechanism to compel those institutions to release this information. The Fed faced some criticism last year for failing to identify the financial trading activity that ensnared the regional bank presidents.

☆ Tempted to buy the dip on tech stocks? Strategist reveals when to get back in
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Amazon , Meta and Alphabet 's stocks all tanked last week after disappointing earnings, but investors looking to buy tech stocks on the dip should hold off for now, according to strategist Dan Scott. Still, he suggested that wasn't enough for the central bank to move away from its hawkish stance on raising interest rates. Instead, she expects a multiple compression, such as a decline in price-to-earnings ratio, in Big Tech stocks by the end of the year. Markets are expecting interest rates to rise by 75 basis points on Nov. 2, with a similar rise on Dec. 14. The problem is the outlook: 2-8% growth is not what I'm looking for in the tech stocks," he said.

The all-inclusive figure that forms the basis for the Fed's target is likely to come in around 6%. SUPPLY, DEMAND, COMPETITIONThere has been sharp rhetoric about high corporate profits driving inflation - and indeed businesses like auto dealers enjoyed large markups during the pandemic, when demand surged and supply was limited. Based on those and other metrics, shelter inflation already may be declining even if government data doesn't show it yet. While that may not be the source of inflation, Fed officials feel that more balance between labor demand and supply will help ease price increases. "This pattern supports our view that wage growth and price inflation will moderate without a recession," Briggs wrote.

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a "closer call than normal" whether recession can be avoided. Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much "tighter" than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.

read moreThe yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury hit 4.338% earlier, the highest since November 2007. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield , which typically reflects interest rate expectations, surged to 4.639%, the highest since August 2007. We'll continue to see more calls for a slowdown (in Fed policy) as we feel more and more pain in risk markets," he added. The gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes , was at -27.5 basis points, that's the steepest since mid-September. The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.525%, reflecting the average inflation the market has priced in for the next decade.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed isn't about to back down from its inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. London CNN Business —Twelve days from now, the Federal Reserve will meet again, and expectations for the central bank’s next moves are firming up. The consensus among investors: Persistently hot inflation means the Fed will need to continue with its string of aggressive interest rate hikes, which is unprecedented in the modern era. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation had become “pernicious,” which means that “frontloading” larger rate hikes is logical. But with two quarters of disappointing deliveries caused by supply chain issues and Covid-related shutdowns in China, that goal has looked increasingly out of reach, my CNN Business colleague Chris Isidore reports.

☆ Oil steady as recession woes counter positive Chinese signals
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures were down 1 cents, or 0.01%, to $91.62 a barrel, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $85.46 after a 7.6% decline last week. Beijing will also greatly increase domestic energy supply capacity and step up risk controls in key commodities including coal, oil, gas and electricity, a senior National Energy Administration official said on Monday. "It's been another turbulent few weeks in oil markets from global growth concerns to super-sized OPEC+ output cuts and it seems they're yet to fully settle down," said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA. OPEC+ output cuts attracted funds back to the oil markets, with continued heavy buying of crude oil futures and options for a second straight week.

☆ Oil rises as positive Chinese signals counter recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures rose 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $92.16 a barrel by 1245 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 34 cents, or 0.4%, at $85.95 after a 7.6% decline last week. China will further increase reserve capacities for key commodities, another state official told a news conference in Beijing. The third-quarter GDP data, along with September activity data, is due for release on Oct. 18 at 0200 GMT. Meanwhile a strong U.S. dollar and further interest rate increases from the U.S. Federal Reserve are helping to contain price gains.

Oct 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after China rolled over liquidity measures to help its pandemic-hit economy, igniting hopes for a better fuel demand outlook from the world's top crude importer. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.33 a barrel, up 72 cents, or 0.84%, after a 7.6% decline last week. China's central bank rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while keeping the interest rate unchanged for a second month on Monday. Although its third-quarter GDP growth could rebound from the previous quarter, President Xi's stringent COVID-19 policy has the world's No. "Tighter inventories for oil and oil products along with looming supply risks should keep prices volatile," analysts at ANZ Research said in a note.

Oct 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after China rolled over liquidity measures to help its pandemic-hit economy, igniting hopes for a better fuel demand outlook from the world's top crude importer. Brent crude futures rose 66 cents, or 0.7%, to $92.29 a barrel by 0430 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.17 a barrel, up 56 cents, or 0.6%, after a 7.6% decline last week. China's central bank rolled over maturing medium-term policy loans while keeping the interest rate unchanged for a second month on Monday. "Tighter inventories for oil and oil products along with looming supply risks should keep prices volatile," analysts at ANZ Research said in a note.

☆ Oil bounces higher as U.S. dollar's strength eases
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose in thin trade in early Asian hours on Monday as the U.S. dollar's strength eased while investors awaited data from China to gauge demand at the world's top crude oil importer. Brent crude futures rose 85 cents, or 0.9%, to $92.48 a barrel by 0019 GMT, recovering from a 6.4% fall last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.34 a barrel, up 73 cents, or 0.9%, after a 7.6% decline last week. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"U.S. dollar index futures were lower today, which also provided a rebounding opportunity for the oil markets," she added. A weaker dollar makes oil more affordable for holders of other currencies.

☆ Gold firms as dollar rally pauses; rate-hike woes cap gains
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices rose on Monday after declining more than 1% in the previous session, as a pause in the dollar rally alleviated some pressure from the greenback-priced bullion, though looming U.S. rate hike restricted further gains. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,648.91 per ounce, as of 0405 GMT. The dollar index was flat, while the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased, moving away from the 14-year peak touched last week. A survey from the University of Michigan on Friday showed consumer sentiment improved further in October, but inflation expectations deteriorated a bit, keeping expectations of another 75-basis-point rate hike intact. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. rates, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

☆ Fed's Bullard says boost to dollar from rate hikes may ease
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate increases have contributed to the strength of the dollar against other currencies, but that may ease once the U.S. central bank reaches the point of pausing the rate hikes, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Saturday. Fed policy "has produced a stronger currency," Bullard said at a monetary policy panel on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Washington. That may ease once the Fed gets rates to a place "where the committee thinks we're putting meaningful downward pressure on inflation," so rates don't need to continue rising, he said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall St drops as consumer data stokes inflation worry
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profitS&P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declinesU.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. "The main thrust for the market right now is higher interest rates, higher inflation and the Fed is going to continue to move its fed funds target higher," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan. For the week, the Dow gained 1.15%, the S&P 500 lost 1.56% and the Nasdaq fell 3.11%. Analysts now expect third-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 235 new lows.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterIf the Fed follows through with two more 75-basis-point hikes this year, its policy rate would end 2022 in a range of 4.50%-4.75%. It is very possible that the data would come in a way that forces the (Federal Open Market) Committee higher on the policy rate. The possibility of a fifth larger-than-usual increase in December is "a little more frontloading than what I've said in the past," he added. Though some investors and economists expect the Fed will need to lift its policy rate even further, to 5% or higher, Bullard said, "I wouldn't predict that now ... Volatility in markets is to be expected when rates rise, he said, but may settle after a period of adjustment.

In a Reuters interview, Bullard said U.S. Consumer Price Index data for September released this week showed inflation had become "pernicious" and difficult to arrest, and therefore "it makes sense that we're still moving quickly." It is very possible that the data would come in a way that forces the committee higher on the policy rate. But it's also possible that you get a good disinflationary dynamic going and in that situation the committee could keep the policy rate and hold it steady," Bullard said a day after the CPI report for September showed inflation continued above 8%. read moreThe possibility of a fifth larger-than-usual increase in December is "a little more front loading than what I've said in the past," Bullard said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Howard SchneiderOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ October's wild trading could give way to a new stock rally, as earnings roll out in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But Emanuel sees the chance for a 17% to 20% rally in the S & P 500. The S & P 500 was down about 0.9% for the week, as of Friday afternoon, and it was hovering just above 3,600. S & P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 3.6% for the third quarter, based on actual reports and estimates, according to Refinitiv. Without the boost from more than doubling profits from energy companies, S & P earnings would decline by 3.1%. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Bank of America , Bank of NY Mellon, Charles Schwab 8:30 a.m.

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