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☆ Treasury yields mixed as investors weigh U.S. economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by close to two basis point to 3.5301%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield was last trading over one basis point higher at 4.0886%. U.S Treasury yields were mixed on Wednesday as investors assessed what could be next for the economy amid concerns about the debt ceiling and a recession. On Wednesday, investors will be following further Fed speaker comments, as well as the release of building permit and housing starts data for April.

☆ Morning bid: Fed rates to stay higher for longer, debt drama goes on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg on Tuesday that it was "too premature" to be discussing interest rate cuts. Loretta Mester, the President at the Cleveland Fed, said they're not at the point where rates can be kept on hold. The chance of a rate cut as early as June has also disappeared, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, having stood at almost 20% a month ago. DEBT CEILING OPTIMISMWith just over two weeks until a possible U.S. debt default unless Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling past its $31.3 trillion limit, talks appear to be heading toward a positive outcome. Biden, who will be travelling to Japan on Wednesday, is set to cut his trip short and skip stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea amid the debt ceiling stand-off.

☆ S&P 500, Dow fall, dragged by Home Depot outlook, US retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Home Depot (HD.N) shed 1.73%, the biggest drag on the Dow Industrials and among the heaviest weights on the S&P 500 after the home improvement retailer cut its annual sales forecast and projected a steeper-than-expected decline in profit. The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, short of the estimate for an increase of 0.8%. That slowing along with recent negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling has focused attention on when the central bank will pause hiking, or cut interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she does not think the central bank can hold interest rates steady yet. The S&P 500 posted 10 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 42 new highs and 163 new lows.

The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, at half the pace against an expected increase of 0.8%. "The retail sales data has been positive in several months, but it's still weak," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. You are probably seeing the end of the decline in retail sales, but it's not going to be a smooth ride from here." Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) component Home Depot (HD.N) shed 1.4%, hitting its lowest level in over six months after the company lowered its annual sales forecast. Shares of Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) jumped 2.4%, rising the most on the S&P 500, after Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) on Monday disclosed it has begun investing in the consumer lender.

☆ Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Consumers barely kept up with inflation in April, as retail sales increased but fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Miscellaneous store retailers led gainers with a 2.4% increase, while online sales rose 1.2% and health and personal care retailers saw a 0.9% rise.

☆ Fed's Mester says not yet at point where it can 'hold' rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Padraic Halpin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Tuesday that she does not think the U.S. central bank is at a point yet where it can hold interest rates steady for a period of time, given how stubborn inflation is. However, four U.S. central bankers on Monday signaled they see interest rates staying high and, if anything, going higher, given inflation that may be slow to improve and an economy showing only tentative signs of weakness. "When we get the policy to that rate, I think we're going to be holding for a while in order to make sure that the interest rate is coming back down. So I don't put it in terms of a pause, I put it in terms of a hold. At this point, given the data we've gotten so far, I would say no."

The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.4% in April, at half the pace against an expected increase of 0.8%. "The retail sales data has been positive in several months, but it's still weak," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. You are probably seeing the end of the decline in retail sales, but it's not going to be a smooth ride from here." The S&P 500 retail index (.SPXRT) lost 0.6%. Shares of Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) jumped 5.4%, rising the most on the S&P 500, after Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) on Monday disclosed it has begun investing in the consumer lender.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors assessed what could be next for Federal Reserve interest rates following a slew of comments from central bank officials. Investors looked to comments from Fed officials and economic data as they weighed what could be next for interest rate policy and whether the U.S. economy is likely to contract. That comes after last week's inflation data, which was slightly below expectations, led many investors to hope for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have grown louder in recent weeks.

☆ Fed Set to Raise Interest Rates to 16-Year High and Debate a Pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

In projections released after their March meeting, most Federal Reserve officials thought the central bank would need to make one last quarter-point rate increase before moving to the sidelines. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesFederal Reserve officials are on track to increase interest rates again at their meeting this week while deliberating whether that will be enough to then pause the fastest rate-raising cycle in 40 years. “We are much closer to the end of the tightening journey than the beginning,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said April 20.

☆ Jim Cramer: This is what I learned from the real first week of earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"Simply stated we're in a freight recession." That line, uttered last Monday by Shelley Simpson, president of J.B. Hunt (JBHT), the fourth-largest trucking company in the United States, was the most memorable of the real first week of earnings season. If so, it would know that we're dealing with much more than a freight recession. It's not enough to offset the immense deflationary pressure emanating from the regional banks and the freight recession described by J.B. Hunt. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

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☆ Gold prices ease with Fed rate trajectory in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,001.75 per ounce, as of 0342 GMT, after rising 1% on Thursday. Gold prices have been moderating in the absence of real incoming news flow and "we really need to see some bigger pieces of information to give it that directional conviction", said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. "Gold pushed back above $2,000/oz as the weaker economic outlook is enticing safe-haven buying," ANZ said in a note. Rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Spot silver dipped 0.3% to $25.22 per ounce, while platinum was flat at $1,093.33 and palladium rose 0.5% to $1,594.26.

☆ Inflation is still too high: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is still too high: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta MesterCNBC's Scott Wapner joins 'Halftime' with breaking news from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester about Fed policy moving into further restrictive policy.

☆ Fed's Mester sees policy rate over 5% and 'soft landing' on horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Mester, who does not have a vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, spoke less than two weeks before the Fed's May 2-3 policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to hike rates a final time at that meeting, lifting its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range. Noting a need to be "prudent" with policy, Mester said this possible change in financial conditions "would work in the same direction as tighter monetary policy," which the Fed will need to take stock of "to help us calibrate the appropriate path of monetary policy going forward." Mester said she expects the unemployment rate, which is currently 3.5%, to rise to between 4.5% and 4.75%. "The 'soft landing,' of course, is what we're aiming for," Mester said, referring to a scenario in which monetary tightening slows the economy, and inflation, without triggering a recession.

☆ Morning Bid: Oil price relapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although oil prices have not yet reversed all their gains from OPEC move, Brent is down more than 5% over the past week and the year-on-year deflation in oil prices is running at 24%. And there's also signs oil loading from Russia's western ports this month is rising to the highest since 2019 -= despite Moscow's pledge to cut output. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares dropped 2% after the electric-vehicle maker's sixth U.S. price cut this year. Helped by the oil price retreat, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields fell back almost 10 basis points to 4.19%. VIX and bear marketsShare price performance, earnings and sales for TeslaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as investors awaited economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about the central bank's monetary policy plans. Investors assessed what could be next for Fed policy, especially regarding interest rates. Many are expecting the central bank to announce another 25 basis point interest rate hike after its next meeting on May 2-3. That fueled investor concerns about further interest rate hikes, and rates staying elevated for longer — a prospect which Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have also hinted at. On Thursday, investors will be scanning remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester for fresh policy hints.

☆ Stock futures are slightly down as investors parse corporate earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as investors appraised the latest batch of corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures shed 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3%. "Earnings reports have been mixed thus far, with individual stocks responding to specific company results relative to expectations rather than broad index directionality," he said. Investors will watch Thursday for more earnings reports, including releases before the bell from Alaska Air and AT&T . Beyond earnings, investors will keep an eye on morning data on jobless claims and existing home sales.

SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a one-month high against Japan's yen on Monday as traders eyed up another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while the Bank of Japan stuck to its easy money policies. Expectations of higher interest rates relative to global peers tend to boost a currency by making investments there look more attractive, and vice versa. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, pricing in derivatives markets shows traders think there's a roughly 84% chance the Fed will hike rates again by 25 basis points in May, up from around 69% last week . It hit a one-year high of $1.108 on Friday, with traders expecting further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank even as the Fed nears a pause. Foley expects one more 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed in May before it holds rates steady for the rest of the year.

☆ Futures subdued as investors eye bank earnings, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.07%, S&P 0.10%, Nasdaq 0.01%April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were largely flat on Monday as investors awaited more bank earnings and views from Federal Reserve policymakers that could shape expectations around when the central bank will pause its monetary policy tightening. Wall Street ended lower on Friday as a barrage of mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Fed interest rate hike in May, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched the first-quarter reporting season. U.S. central bank officials including New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are scheduled to speak later this week. ET (1230 GMT) is expected to show business conditions in New York state improved in April after slumping in the previous month. ET, Dow e-minis were up 24 points, or 0.07%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1 point, or 0.01%.

Fed bank directors don't vote on monetary policy, but they do express their views through non-binding votes on the discount rate, which is what the Fed charges to commercial banks for emergency loans. Fed bank presidents say their directors provide key information on the state of the economy. Despite their boards' preference for something different, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joined other Fed policymakers in a unanimous vote last month to lift the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester do not cast policy votes this year. Fed meeting minutes never specify which policymakers made which comments.

But overall bank credit has been stalled at about $17.5 trillion since January. The response - less lending, tighter credit standards and higher interest on loans - was already taking shape. Hard data on bank lending and credit will come into play, augmenting topline statistics like unemployment and inflation that the Fed is focused on. Reuters GraphicsSENTIMENT WEAKENINGThe survey of large and small banks asks high-level questions - Are lending standards tighter or looser? A Dallas Fed bank conditions survey, conducted in late March after the two bank failures, indicated lending standards in that Fed regional bank's district have kept tightening, with loan demand falling.

☆ NY Fed index shows global supply chain pressures eased further in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said that as of March, its Global Supply Chain Pressure index moved to a reading of -1.06, versus the revised -0.28 seen in February. "Global supply chain conditions have largely normalized after experiencing temporary setbacks around the turn of the year," the bank said in its report. The index has seen extended periods of below-average supply chain stress and was in negative territory during the summer of 2019, ahead of the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. There was also an extended period of below-normal supply chain stress between roughly 2011 and 2016. But price pressures driven by non-energy service factors stripped of housing are "having the most trouble" abating, Williams said.

☆ More signs are pointing to an imminent slowdown in the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US economy is showing signs of a sudden slowdown after a year of tightening financial conditions. "Expectations of tightening lending standards contributed to the market's concern that an economic slowdown is unfolding in real time," LPL said. A potential economic slowdown is also starting to show up in retail sales growth, which fell 0.4% in February. Mester's comments "contributed to the market's increasing concern that an economic slowdown is unfolding in real time," LPL's chief global strategist Quincy Krosby told Insider. First-quarter earnings season kicks off next week with the bank stocks, while the March jobs report will be released this Friday, when the stock market is closed for Good Friday.

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar ahead of US payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File PhotoApril 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Thursday as the dollar firmed ahead of a much awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as investors sought clarity on whether the Federal Reserve might take a breather on its monetary tightening path. * Investors now await Friday's non-farm payrolls report for March, with economists polled by Reuters expecting new jobs of about 240,000. * Markets see a 54.2% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. * While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal.

☆ Gold off one-year highs as dollar firms ahead of U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices slipped from one-year highs on Thursday as the dollar regained some ground, while investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to gage the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. The economic data points this week were major components supporting gold prices, he added, while also noting some profit-booking ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Wednesday's data showed the U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in March. While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. Markets see a 53.8% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

☆ Key inflation data and earnings reports loom as labor market signals a slowing U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials have been pointing to the tight labor market as an area of concern for inflation, using it as evidence that it hasn't tightened rates enough. After months of strategists and investors complaining that earnings estimates are too high, they've started to fall — but with a catch. If the trough in earnings is close, then the stock market could be in for a big year. ET - Producer price index Friday: Earnings: UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup, PNC Financial 8:30 a.m. ET - Fed H.8 data on assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks

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