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Mortgage rates have inched down and remain relatively low compared to the highs we saw in early March. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. If the Fed acts too aggressively and engineers a recession, mortgage rates could fall further than what current forecasts expect. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Higher mortgage rates took some of the juice out of the housing recovery in February. After a sharp gain in January, pending home sales rose just 0.8% month to month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Mortgage rates shot higher in February after dropping sharply in January. Regionally sales moved higher month to month in every region except the West, where they fell 2.4%. Any jump in mortgage rates would have an outsized effect there.
Other gauges of the housing market have shown similar indications of a rebound. "After nearly a year, the housing sector's contraction is coming to an end," NAR's top economist said. "After nearly a year, the housing sector's contraction is coming to an end," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. "Existing-home sales, pending contracts and new-home construction pending contracts have turned the corner and climbed for the past three months." The Northeast led all four regions, with pending sales jumping 6.4% last month.
But in a strange twist, it’s possible that the banking meltdown actually did some work for the Fed in bringing down prices without raising interest rates. That could have the equivalent effect of the Fed hiking rates by half a point, said Goldman Sachs economists on Tuesday. Bank stocks rebound as Janet Yellen, Jamie Dimon work to restore confidenceThe collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rippled through markets last week. The Treasury secretary reiterated that the federal government would be willing to rescue uninsured depositors at small banks if lenders suffer bank runs, raising the specter of contagion. The SPDR Regional Banking Equity Traded Fund, which tracks a number of small and mid-sized bank stocks, gained 5.8% for the day.
These sales counts are based on closings, so the contracts were likely signed at the end of December and throughout January, when mortgage rates had fallen sharply. Sales of previously owned homes rose 14.5% in February compared with January, according to a seasonally adjusted count by the National Association of Realtors . The relative drop caused a jump in sales of newly built homes, before rates jumped back toward 7% in February. That lower median price could be a sign that homes on the more affordable end of the market are selling. At a recent open house in Cleveland, Ohio, home shopper Katie Berardi said higher mortgage rates have had an impact on what she and her husband can afford.
Home prices just broke a decade-long streak
  + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The steep decline in sales activity is driven by the large increase of mortgage rates over the past year. Mortgage rates remain volatile — in February, rates rose half of percentage point — but prices in some areas are cooling, according to NAR. “Conscious of changing mortgage rates, home buyers are taking advantage of any rate declines,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. The huge jump in sales was surprising, said Yun, showing just how sensitive homebuyers are to slight reductions in mortgage rates. This has pushed rates lower over the past week.
Forecasts are a mixed bag , but most expect prices to either remain flat or continue cooling by 1% to 10% from 2022's highs. However, with the economy expected to cool and possibly dip into a recession , many recent forecasts expect rates to drop to 6% or below in 2024, including a Fannie Mae projection of 5.2%. With U.S. home prices dropping and mortgage rates projected to dip sometime in 2024, homebuyers might be wondering if they should wait until next year to land a more affordable deal. "Returning to mortgage rates of 3% or 4% is not going to happen, in my view," says Yun, who points out that historically rates have been higher. Plus, if "mortgage rates go back down to that level, people can always refinance their mortgages," says Yun.
As mortgage rates dropped over the last few months, homebuyers started re-entering the market. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. If the Fed acts too aggressively and engineers a recession, mortgage rates could fall further than what current forecasts expect. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Signed contracts on existing homes jumped 8.1% last month compared with December, according to the National Association of Realtors. Closed sales in January were lower because they were based on contracts signed in November and December, when mortgage rates were higher. "Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. Some of that was due to incentives offered by big builders, but lower rates improved affordability, especially for buyers of entry-level homes. Going forward, with rates higher and the supply of homes for sale still historically low, sales may not be able to continue this type of growth.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere is still a residual shortage of housing, says the National Association of RealtorsNational Association of Realtors' Lawrence Yun explains the state of the housing market.
Washington, DC CNN —Pending home sales crushed expectations in January, when mortgage rates dropped from recent highs of more than 7% and home buyers jumped at the opportunity. According to data released Monday from the National Association of Realtors, it was the largest monthly sales increase since June 2020. The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, rose by 8.1% from December to January, beating economists’ predictions for a rise of 1%. “Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. But since then, mortgage rates have risen again, climbing almost half a percentage point since the beginning of February, according to Freddie Mac.
WASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes rose by the most in more than 2-1/2 years in January, but a resurgence in mortgage rates could delay a much-awaited housing market turnaround. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Monday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, jumped 8.1% last month, the biggest increase since June 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, rising 1.0%. The second straight monthly increase in contracts could see existing home sales rebounding or posting another small decline after logging their 12th straight monthly decrease in January. Despite signs the worst is over, it could take a while for the housing market to turn around.
Home sales sank in January for the 12th straight month
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington, DC CNN —US home sales declined in January for the 12th consecutive month as mortgage rates remained elevated and stubbornly high prices kept homebuyers out of the market. That’s the longest streak of declining home sales on record, going back to 1999, and also marks the weakest sales activity since 2010. In January 2022, the average rate for a fixed-rate mortgage ranged from 3.22% to 3.55%, according to Freddie Mac. “Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines.”Even as home sales dropped, home prices continued to climb last month nationally. Inventory remains historically low, with few homeowners looking to give up their ultra-low mortgage rates to buy a new home with a higher rate.
The housing market could be close to bottoming as existing home sales are continuing to fall, National Association of Realtors said. Monthly existing home sales slipped another 0.7% in January, bringing sales to their lowest level since 2010. Monthly existing home sales slipped 0.7% in January to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4 million units a year, the organization said in a note on Tuesday. The latest drop brings existing home sales to their lowest level since October 2010, when housing activity was still reeling from the mortgage crisis of 2008. Meanwhile, other market commentators have warned the US housing market is on the verge of a crash akin 2008.
U.S. existing home sales fall in January, but pace slowing
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales dropped to a more than 12-year low in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom. Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, plunged 36.9% on a year-on-year basis in January. The housing market has been the biggest casualty of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking campaign. It will, however, be a while before the housing market turns around. At January's sales pace, it would take 2.9 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes up from 1.6 months a year ago.
San Jose, California, was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. Prices for San Francisco homes are already down 21% in the fourth quarter from the peak median price of $1,550,000 in the second quarter. Among the most expensive cities that saw prices falling are Anaheim, California, with the median price of $1,132,000, down 1.6% from a year ago; Los Angeles, with the median price of $829,100, down 1.3%; and Boulder, Colorado, with the median price of $759,500, down 2.0%. Other places with falling prices saw the big price increases during the frenzied home buying market of the past few years. Instead, prices for single-family homes climbed in nearly 90% of metro areas tracked by NAR in the fourth quarter: 166 markets out of 186 saw prices still going up.
During the pandemic, mortgage rates plummeted below 3%, flooding the real estate market with homebuyers trying to snag a good rate. "Mortgage rates have trended down in the past couple of months," he says. So... [for] someone waiting for a 3% or 4% mortgage rate, it's not going to happen." For example, Rocket Mortgage is currently offering a mortgage rate buydown program called Inflation Buster. Evaluate whether you're buying for the right reasons and determine if you and your budget are ready for this important milestone.
Lower mortgage rates have provided a modest boost to the housing market. "Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market." See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage calculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-year fixed mortgage ratesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.17%, a decrease from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically in 2022, but they've started to trend down somewhat over the past couple of months.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Friday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, rose 2.5% to 76.9 last month. That was the first increase in pending home sales since May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would fall 0.9%. Pending home sales decreased 33.8% in December on a year-on-year basis. Government data this week showed new home sales increasing for a third straight month in December.
Washington, DC CNN —Pending home sales increased in December for the first time since May, a sign that lower mortgage rates are bringing some buyers back into the housing market. The pending sales index, based on signed contracts to buy a home rather than the final sales that are accounted for in existing home sales, improved by 2.5% from November to December, according to data released Friday from the National Association of Realtors. Pending sales dropped in the Northeast, where the index was down 6.5% in December from November; and in the Midwest, where the index was down 0.3%. Pending sales were up 6.1% in the South in December from November and rose 6.4% in the West. “Mortgage applications have been trending higher alongside lower rates, pending home sales are up, and builder confidence increased in January,” Kushi said.
The typical first-time buyer was age 36 in 2022, up from age 33 in 2021, according to the National Association of Realtors. The combination of year-over-year double-digit price jumps for much of 2022 and rising mortgage rates created an affordability problem for many buyers. The average for a 30-year fixed-rate loan is 6.21% as of Jan. 24, according to Mortgage News Daily. An adjustable rate mortgage may be an optionIt may also be worth considering an adjustable rate mortgage if you're trying to bring the cost down, Yun said. With an ARM, the appeal is its lower initial rate compared with a traditional fixed rate mortgage.
Existing home sales fell 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million units last month, the lowest level since November 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales falling to a rate of 3.96 million units. Home resales, which account for a big chunk of U.S. housing sales, tumbled 34.0% on a year-on-year basis in December. But the worst of housing market rout is probably behind. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate retreated to an average 6.15% this week, the lowest level since mid-September, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.
Sales of previously owned homes dropped 1.5% in December from the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales ended the year at a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 4.02 million units, which was 34% lower than December 2021. It is the slowest pace since November 2010, when the nation was struggling through a housing crisis brought on by faulty subprime mortgages. While sales are down in all price categories, they are falling most sharply on the higher end. Sales of homes priced above $1 million were down 45% year over year, compared with sales of homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000, which were down 34%.
Here’s what to expect in the housing market this year
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Washington, DC CNN —Last year was a wild ride in the US housing market. So what’s in store for the housing market this year? “Mortgage rates are really critical to the path of the housing market in the year ahead,” said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. “Yes, things have cooled way down in the housing market, but we don’t have a glut of homes for sale,” said Tucker. A plain, boring, vanilla year in the housing market would be a wonderful surprise.”
Lawsuits against real estate professionals increased 9% between 2021 and 2022 as home prices declined. Zach Vollmer, SVP of Real Estate at Victor Insurance Managers, expects the total to increase in 2023. Vollmer added that lawsuits targeting real estate professionals are common when home prices fall. The increasing frequency of lawsuits coincides with a slew of predictions from real estate experts who expect home prices to continue to decrease in 2023. In most cases, Vollmer said the lawsuits contain allegations that seek to trigger reimbursements under a real estate professional's liability insurance policy.
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