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☆ Jeffrey Epstein Documents, Part 2: Movie Screenings With Woody Allen and Dinners With Larry Summers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Khadeeja Safdar | David Benoit | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Lawrence Summers wanted $1 million to fund an online poetry project his wife was developing. The former Treasury secretary and onetime Harvard University president turned to Jeffrey Epstein . “I need small scale philanthropy advice. My life will be better if i raise $1m for Lisa,” Mr. Summers said in an email to Epstein in April 2014, referring to his wife, Elisa New, a Harvard professor. “Mostly it will go to make it a pbs series and for teacher training.

☆ ‘Progressives’ Want to Go Back to the 1950s
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Walter Russell Mead | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Journal Editorial Report: The week's best and worst from Kim Strassel, Kyle Peterson and Dan Henninger. Images: AFP/Getty Images/CNP/Zuma Press Composite: Mark KellyThe Biden administration plans a fundamental transformation of American economic policy at home and abroad. That’s the takeaway from national security adviser Jake Sullivan ’s speech at the Brookings Institution last week. This was a big speech about major policy changes, and those who want to understand the direction of American policy in a second Biden term would be unwise to overlook it. The break with post-Cold War Democratic trade and economic policy is radical.

☆ Inflation is falling for Americans, but it's probably not enough to slow the Fed's next interest rate decision this week
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This week, the Federal Reserve will likely announce the third interest rate hike this year. But a pause on interest rate hikes could be in the cards in June. There was a massive slowdown in the year-over-year percent change in the Consumer Price Index from February to March — dropping from 6.0% to 5.0%. The personal consumption expenditures price index also suggests a cooldown but is still elevated, with the year-over-year rate falling from 5.1% in February to 4.2% in March. Following the March interest rate hike, Warren wrote on Twitter that "Powell made a mistake not pausing its extreme interest rate hikes."

☆ Are we in a recession? Elon Musk says the pile of failed banks proves it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

As for today, let's see what Elon Musk and Larry Summers have to say about the state of the economy. In any case, ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said recession odds for the next year are now sitting at 70%. These six factors suggest the stock market bottomed last October. Morgan Stanley's top equity strategist Mike Wilson thinks investors are banking too hard on a potential Fed rate cut this year. That discrepancy could set the stock market up for a sell-off, in his view.

☆ Analysis: Bank failures and looming debt default test American confidence in the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —Two converging crises are testing American confidence in their financial well-being. And there’s a debt crisis, which is becoming more urgent as the US approaches the “X-date” – when it would default – and on which opposing lawmakers aren’t currently talking to each other. First Republic Bank was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on Monday, and most of its assets were sold to JPMorgan Chase. Maintaining confidenceNone of that means this is a golden chapter for the American financial system. Now, the debt crisis and the X-dateIf only American lawmakers could take a cue from the First Republic saga and get into a room to solve the debt crisis.

☆ Markets are ignoring recession signals because a downturn might actually ease a handful of problems facing stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Today we're diving into how a recession could affect the stock market — and why it may not be all bad in the eyes of investors. Traders gather on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, March 18, 2016. Markets so far this year haven't acted like they're too concerned about a recession, and that's no accident, according to DataTrek Research. : Sticky, high prices have weighed on stocks, but a slowdown would alleviate this. Falling productivity in the labor market: A recession could stop companies from hoarding workers, which could improve profit margins.

☆ Larry Summers says the Fed has inflation on the ropes, calls out crypto frauds, and bemoans the debt-ceiling fiasco. Here are the ex-Treasury chief's 12 best quotes from a new interview.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed may only have to hike interest rates once more to beat inflation, Larry Summers says. Here are Summers' 12 best quotes, lightly edited for length and clarity:The Fed and interest rates:1. "There's an old political observation: 100% of the people pay rising prices, and only 6% of the people are unemployed. I think there's some logic to that." I don't think the idea of defaulting on the debt associated with spending we've already done should be on the table."

☆ US stocks rise but close lower for the week as investors mull mixed bag of corporate earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stock indices rose Friday as investors digested mixed earnings reports. However, all three major gauges closed the week in the red. Alphabet and Amazon are on deck to report quarterly results next week. According to FactSet, more than 75% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have exceeded analysts' earnings expectations. Mega-cap tech like Alphabet and Amazon are on deck for next week's quarterly results.

☆ The credit crunch is here and it could cripple the economy. Here's what Larry Summers, Nouriel Roubini and 7 other experts have said on the emerging threat.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Latest bank lending data suggests the credit crunch "has already started," according to Morgan Stanley strategists. Here's a selection of recent warnings on the emerging threat from experts including Larry Summers, David Solomon, Mike Wilson, Nouriel Roubini and Bill Gross. Apollo Asset Management's Jim Zelter told Bloomberg "it's not a credit crunch" but rather a "transition period" as markets face higher debt costs. "That credit crunch is going to make the likelihood of a recession — a hard landing — much greater than before. "Whether this qualifies as a full-blown 'credit crunch' remains to be seen.

☆ Scolding Isn’t a Foreign Policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Walter Russell Mead | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Internationally, it was another grim week for the Biden administration, the United States of America, and world peace. Indian officials reported that China is supporting the development of a military listening post on Myanmar’s strategic Great Coco Island in the Bay of Bengal. Farther south, a Sudanese military faction backed by Russia’s Wagner Group battles for control of Africa’s third-largest nation. The usual spinners and makeup artists are doing their best to make the disorderly unraveling of the American-led world order look like a visionary triumph of enlightened foreign policy, but former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers expressed a more cogent view. What we get from the United States is a lecture.’ ”

☆ The Fed's rate hike policy doesn't have many fans — but abandoning the inflation target would be a 'disaster' that brings the economy back to the 1970s, a Fed official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The president of the St. Louis Fed said it would be a disaster for the Fed to abandon its inflation target. The Fed has been hiking interest rates aggressively to get inflation down to 2%. The Fed then targeted inflation aggressively and adopted the 2% inflation target in the 1990s. Ethan Harris, a Bank of America economist, wrote in a December note there's little evidence that the 2% inflation target is the "optimal target," per Fortune. Higher interest rates make borrowing — like mortgages to credit cards more expensive.

☆ Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says more rate hikes may be needed to kill inflation despite a banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers suggested more interest-rate hikes may be needed to cool inflation. "I probably would have allowed more room for concern about inflation and left the door a bit more open to multiple rate hikes," he said. The Fed made a decision Wednesday to hike interest rates by 25 basis points amid an ongoing banking crisis in the US. "I probably would have allowed more room for concern about inflation and left the door a bit more open to multiple rate hikes, given the strength of the recent inflation data" Summers told CNN on Wednesday. Nevertheless, Summers voiced support for the Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate decision.

☆ A recession is guaranteed this year based on Jerome Powell's favorite bond-market gauge
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's preferred bond-market indicator says a recession is on the way this year. It's the spread between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months. The spread between the current yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months is now inverted by a record 134 basis points. The Fed's messaging, however, contrasted with market expectations, as Powell said interest rates will still remain elevated through the year. "If the US economy continues to rumble along as it has the last few quarters, interest rates will remain high," DataTrek Research's cofounder, Nicholas Colas, wrote in a note Thursday.

☆ Premarket stocks: The banking meltdown may have done the Fed's work for it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But in a strange twist, it’s possible that the banking meltdown actually did some work for the Fed in bringing down prices without raising interest rates. That could have the equivalent effect of the Fed hiking rates by half a point, said Goldman Sachs economists on Tuesday. Bank stocks rebound as Janet Yellen, Jamie Dimon work to restore confidenceThe collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rippled through markets last week. The Treasury secretary reiterated that the federal government would be willing to rescue uninsured depositors at small banks if lenders suffer bank runs, raising the specter of contagion. The SPDR Regional Banking Equity Traded Fund, which tracks a number of small and mid-sized bank stocks, gained 5.8% for the day.

☆ Nouriel Roubini and Jeremy Grantham sound the alarm for stocks in a new documentary. Here are the bearish market pros' best quotes.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Jeremy Grantham and Nouriel Roubini are well known for their bearish views on the market and economy. In a new PBS documentary about the Fed's decade of cheap money, Grantham and Roubini ring the alarm for stocks. Both Grantham and Roubini offered their views on what the Fed did to markets in the documentary, and what could happen next. Roubini on central banks driving bubbles"We have had literally a few decades of ever-increasing bubbles that have been fed and supported by central banks. The housing market, the stock market and the bond market, all overpriced at the same time.

New York CNN —The banking meltdown over the past week has left us with more questions than answers. Here are five questions that experts answered Wednesday night. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN that despite scary headlines, now is not the time for consumers to panic. Some context: Those regulations passed in the wake of the Great Recession laid out stricter rules for the banking industry. Of course, others note that the risk of letting the 16th-largest US bank collapse, and potentially letting its tech industry customers also fail, could have far-reaching and potentially devastating consequences.

☆ SVB: What the worst bank failure since 2008 means for markets, the financial sector, and interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Here's what SVB's sudden demise means for markets, the US banking sector, and interest rates. That capped a turbulent week that saw a botched fundraising attempt by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and a $1.8 billion loss on its bond holdings, which ultimately triggered an old-fashioned bank run. Silicon Valley Bank's collapse exposed a serious risk many banks face in their business portfolios – the dependence on uninsured deposits. However, former Treasury chief Larry Summers took a less pessimistic view, saying SVB's collapse was "unlikely to be a broadly systemic problem." But as bad as it is, it's unlikely to trigger a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis that set the stage for the Great Recession, according to analysts.

☆ Premarket stocks: From Wile E. Coyote to edibles: Recession forecasts are getting weird
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

And for the US economy, it could likely mean a “Wile E. Coyote moment,” Summers said — if we run off the cliff, gravity will eventually win out. AntibioticsWhen describing the state of the economy, Summers doesn’t just rely on Looney Tunes. “Will working people be better off if we just walk away from our jobs and inflation remains 5% or 6%?” Powell replied. Before the Bell: Is it necessary to increase the unemployment rate to successfully fight inflation? In a related action, the government shut down Signature Bank, a regional bank that was teetering on the brink of collapse in recent days.

London CNN —The failure of Silicon Valley Bank is rattling markets and raising uncomfortable questions: Will it undermine the broader banking system and start a new meltdown? A crucial lender to US technology startups, the bank came under pressure as Silicon Valley funding dried up, the result of an economic slowdown and rapidly rising interest rates. Bank stocks rattledFounded in 1983, SVB provided financing for almost half of US venture-backed technology and health care companies. SVB put the bonds up for sale as customers, facing leaner times, pulled their money from the bank. Silicon Valley Bank had about $209 billion in total assets and $175 billion in total deposits as of the end of last year, according to the FDIC.

☆ Recession worries used to be bad for bank stocks. Not anymore
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —Investors are bucking tradition this year by piling into big bank stocks just as major economies are expected to either slow down or fall into recession. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that interest rates would rise more than people anticipated. European bank stocks have risen particularly sharply in the past six months. “As those worries have unwound, European banks have done particularly well.”No ‘hidden skeletons’But European economies are still fragile. When economic activity slows down, bank stocks are typically among those hit hardest.

☆ Premarket stocks: What to watch as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is on the hot seat this week as he testifies before Congress. Powell will have some good news to report — when he last testified before Congress in June, the inflation rate was at 40-year-highs, nearing 9%. Investors will also be on edge — hawkish language or even an aggressive tone from Powell could lead to market volatility. Some Fed officials agree. Economists, business leaders, investors and even Fed officials aren’t really sure about what’s happening.

☆ Larry Summers: US economy could hit an ‘air pocket’ in the coming months
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

“The process of bringing down inflation will bring on a recession at some stage, as it almost always has in the past,” Summers said. “The economy could hit an air pocket in a few months,” he said. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tells CNN's Poppy Harlow in a March 6, 2023, interview that the economy could face a "Wile E. Coyote" moment in the coming months. CNNFor the past year, the Fed has enacted a series of interest rate hikes aimed at chilling demand and cooling down historically high inflation. In February, the Fed’s policymaking committee approved a quarter-point interest rate hike — its smallest increase in several months.

☆ Americans are about to put the brakes on spending, and that's got Wall Street analysts on alert. Here's why, and what it means for stocks.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( Ryan Hogg | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Here's why spending is likely to slow down, and why it could mean more turmoil for markets. Retailers and others believe that consumer expenditure is likely to fall, after kicking off the first weeks of 2023 on the rise. Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge showed a 1.8% jump in consumer expenditure that month, compared with December. It's fair to say most analysts weren't expecting consumer spending data to be so resilient in January — and some suggest those figures might be overblown. A dip in consumer spending might signal the beginning of a sustained drop in demand in the US.

☆ The stock market and the economy are stuck on different pages - but the Fed's going to get the last word
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It's one of my favorite books, and the idea is relevant today because "Catch-22" is a fitting characterization of what's facing stocks and economy right now. Good news isn't good news and bad news is good news. To be sure, inflation remains hot, as we saw in Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditure data — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Even as many top commentators are split on the outlook for the economy, markets appear stuck digesting a host of mixed signals, from strong economic data on the one hand, to fears of higher rates on the other. The billionaire Tesla chief has warned that the central bank could crush the value of the entire stock market.

☆ Larry Summers: Russia should rebuild Ukraine's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Ramishah Maruf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Trade with Russia’s neighbors “has ramped up considerably in the last year, which suggests that they’re serving as a way station for goods to get into Russia,” Summers said. The way to win the economic aspect of this, Summers said, is to support Ukraine’s economy, which has left bombed cities and millions destitute. Russian assets should be the ultimate source to pay the bill to rebuild Ukraine, Summers said. In addition to Ukraine, Russian assets should be used to support “the developing world that have paid and suffered enormously from higher food and energy prices because of Russian aggression,” Summers asserted. It could set a “healthy precedent” for countries engaged in cross-border aggression like Russia to lose state assets, Summers added.

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