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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton: We suspect Bitcoin will get to a higher correlation with NasdaqKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss her technical take on Bitcoin, the resistance to the 10-year treasury note, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market reversal shows shift in sentiment that will be difficult to weather, says Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss potential bearish signals in the markets, if there are any positive underpinnings to February's market performance and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket sentiment has gotten extremely greedy, making for a fragile tape, says Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss key technical signals, chart breakouts failing to impact longer-term gauges, and what's needed to reverse the downtrend.
The Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs will face off in Super Bowl LVII on Sunday in Arizona. An analyst said historic data suggests a win by an NFC team will produce a 10% return for the S&P 500 this year. Maybe not," Detrick wrote about this year's Super Bowl. From that viewpoint, stock investors may want to see the Chiefs win their third Super Bowl. Before Sunday's game, the S&P 500 has risen about 6% in 2023, and there's been a rotation in market leadership since 2022's dismal end.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should focus on the mega caps driving indexes, says Fairlead Strategies' Katie StocktonFairlead Strategies founder and managing partner Katie Stockton joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss mega-cap activity driving markets, participation contractions and overly bullish market sentiment.
The stock market is on the verge of undergoing a significant macro shift that could threaten its recent gains in the short term. She warned a rise in the US dollar and interest rates could put a lid on further market advances. Around the same exact time the stock market found its bottom in October, the US dollar was topping out at its highest level since 2002. And that shift could lead to a downturn in the stock market. From a fundamental perspective, higher interest rates and a higher US dollar could have a negative impact on corporate profits.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell triggered a surge in stocks when he spoke Wednesday , taking the S & P 500 into a new range. Redler expects a near term peak for the S & P 500 could be around 4,200-4,220. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq were both higher Thursday, as the 10-year Treasury yield continued its slide to a low of 3.35%. He's watching the growing number of three-month highs in the Russell 1000 and S & P 600 , which are now outpacing the new highs in the S & P 500. The VIX is based on puts and calls in the S & P 500.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFairlead's Katie Stockton: Pivotal week for the market in technical termsKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the market technicals, how the mega-cap growth part of the market looks right now, and more.
Simply buying the worst performers of 2022 seemed to have paid off for investors in January. Discovery have seen the largest bounce back in shares of the group, up 54% after a 60% tumble in 2022. Semiconductor stocks took a beating in 2022 as companies grappled with slowing demand. Of the names included in the list, Lumen Technologies , Epam Systems and Dish Network are the only three downtrodden 2022 stocks bucking the worst-to-first trend. That includes an improvement in long-term trend following indicators, more widespread breakouts, and greater improvement in market breadth, which is currently overbought, she said.
This is a make-or-break week for the stock market. Not only that, but a slate of mega-cap earnings from Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet are also due later this week. Any negative surprises could derail the January rally, Stockton said, and negate much of the recent recovery from 2022's vicious bear market. "We believe the rally rests on the shoulders of heavyweights Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, which are showing softness today as the market anticipates their earnings," Stockton wrote. Better-than-expected earnings and the potential for a Fed pivot have fueled a sharp rebound in the stock.
For some investors, however, its strong month isn't necessarily a green light to jump back into the crypto market. As of Tuesday, bitcoin is set to finish the month up 38.39%, which would make it its best month since October 2021 and its best January in 10 years, according to Coin Metrics. Ether , which led the crypto recovery last summer ahead of the merge, has risen 31% this month, coming off a 67.06% decline for 2022. However, "we're not so sure bitcoin is ready for another rocket ship rally just yet." "Thus far, the rise in BTC dominance looks reminiscent of April 2019, during which a BTC rally marked a crypto market bottom, much akin to rising BTC dominance lately."
It's a make-or-break week for the stock market and its current rally, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton. But big volatility events like the Fed's expected rate hike and mega-cap tech earnings could derail the breakouts. But a lot could happen between now and the closing bell on Friday, as market-shaking news is expected from the Federal Reserve and mega-cap tech earnings. And any negative surprises could derail the recent stock market rally and negate a lot of technical progress made in equities over the past week. "We believe the rally rests on the shoulders of heavyweights Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet, which are showing softness today as the market anticipates their earnings," Stockton said.
The U.S. dollar surged in 2022, with the dollar index hitting a peak of $114.78 in September. But since September, the dollar index has slipped and is now nearing a range that could lend support to the S & P 500 . The dollar index nearing 100 is a key number that many technical analysts are watching – it was named one of the big numbers for 2023 by Oppenheimer. Still, she's also been watching the dollar's major corrective phase and per DeMARK Indicators sees an active signal on the dollar index that flashed on Jan. 13. .DXY YTD line DXY YTD "What it suggests is that from the support area, we should see a relief rally or a dollar bounce," she said, adding that this would mark a sentiment shift around the dollar.
The S & P 500 ended Thursday at 4,060.43. A key test for the S & P 500 The S & P 500 pushed above its 200-day moving average last Friday. Redler, who follows short-term technicals, said it is important for the S & P 500 to hold between 3,970 and 3,990. She said the S & P 500 is showing signs of being overbought short term, though there continues to be short-term upside momentum. We need to see stocks like Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, we need to see these stocks going from downtrend to uptrend.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKatie Stockton: Our longer-term indicators for Bitcoin still point lowerKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the underlying market technicals in Bitcoin, risk metrics to watch in the market, and more.
Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, said Tuesday that bitcoin's rally in the new year doesn't look sustainable. "The positive development is that it has rallied enough to give folks an exit," Stockton said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." BTC.CB= 1Y mountain Bitcoin Stockton said a slow grind higher would be more bullish for bitcoin and other altcoins. "So we're skeptical as to the sustainability of this rally, which we are still viewing as countertrend," Stockton said. Meanwhile, the chart analyst said there are oversold conditions in place, but they've been in place for many months now.
Each time, the S & P 500 subsequently sold off. "We're watching the 50-day moving average [on the VIX] as a risk metric for the S & P 500," she said. "Looking at past major routs in the S & P 500, it's always associated with a VIX at a much higher level. Emanuel's strategy involves buying March 31 S & P 500 puts and calls that are out of the money. Murphy said it seems the volatility in the S & P 500 will be to the downside.
The stock market is poised to plunge to new lows in the first half of 2023, according to Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton. Stockton told CNBC on Tuesday that a "volatility event" could send the VIX soaring to 50. "But we do look for some kind of major low to be established on the back of a volatility event... maybe in the next four to six months." Of course, there is a chance hat instead of plunging to new lows the stock market simply chops sideways and consolidates. I think it's less likely though because I do think that the market needs that kind of capitulation that tends to be associated with bear market lows," Stockton said.
It was a sloppy start to the year for stocks, and the steep decline in two market darlings — Apple and Tesla — is not a good omen for the market in 2023. The S & P 500 was down as much as 1.2% on Tuesday and dipped below the key 3,800 level. "I think Apple has a major influence on market sentiment. Though, she added that Tesla is much less of an impact on overall market action than Apple because of the tech giant's huge market cap. Stockton also said the S & P 500 could break down several hundred points below that and reach 3,200.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email2023 will be an inflection year for the stock market, says Fairlead Strategies' StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss more sideways market activity, the likelihood the market sees new lows this year and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe'll have to retest lows to pull out of this bear market, says Fairlead's Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss volatility in the market.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStockton: A lot of volatility is in store for the markets to start the year in JanuaryFairlead Strategies founder & managing partner Katie Stockton discusses how the markets are trending going into the new year, dives into Nike's latest earnings report, and the massive decline in Tesla shares this year.
Stocks were battered in the past week, as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve. In the past week, stocks rallied Tuesday after the consumer price index showed a smaller-than-expected increase of 7.1% for November. "There's a lot of housing data next week," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. Ned Davis Research pointed out in a note this week that there has been a recent negative correlation between stocks and bonds, meaning stocks are falling and so are yields. Ned Davis expects the negative correlation to continue for the foreseeable future, and is watching the rolling one-year correlation between the S & P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a 'Santa Claus' rally until year end, then a drop in January, says Fairlead Strategies Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the recent market sell-off and her outlook heading into the end of the year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFairlead Tactical Sector Fund: Want to make sure we're in areas with long-term momentumKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies, joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss how her ETF works and what's invested in it right now.
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