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☆ Treasury yields mixed as investors await Fed speaker comments
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yield and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%. ET, the 10-year Treasury was trading more than one basis point higher at 3.7808%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last down by less than one basis point to 4.7189%. Investors awaited a slew of Fed speaker comments slated for this week which could provide fresh details about the outlook for interest rates. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard and New York President John Williams are expected to speak on Tuesday, followed by other policymakers throughout the week.

Persons: Monday's, Louis, Jim Bullard, John Williams, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, New York Locations: St, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: US housing rebound, China prime cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The main macroeconomic news overnight was a rather underwhelming Chinese rate cut that seemed to disappoint the local stock and currency markets, both of which fell. The People's Bank of China cut two benchmark lending rates - its one-year and five-year loan prime rates - by 10 basis points each. With Goldman Sachs on Monday the latest to cut China growth forecasts for this year and next, nerves about the economy's trajectory are rising again. The big U.S. data input this week is from the housing sector, where signs of some recovery are reinforcing 'soft landing' hopes for the wider economy. On Monday, the NAHB's house market sentiment index rose in June to its highest in almost a year and far above forecasts.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Antony Blinken, Joe Biden, what's, BOE, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, John Williams, St Louis, James Bullard, Narendra Modi, Susan Fenton Organizations: Nasdaq, People's Bank of China, Washington, China's, of, Global, Bank of, Federal Reserve, FedEx, Philadelphia Fed, Federal, New York Fed, St, St Louis Fed, Indian, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Xi, Europe, Britain, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey, Bank, Bank of England, United

☆ Stock futures inch lower as investors kick off holiday-shortened week of trading: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures ticked lower on Monday evening as investors looked ahead to a holiday-shortened week of trading. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 93 points, or 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures pulled back 0.2%. Investors were seemingly receptive toward the central bank's decision to skip a June rate hike last week. Investors are trying to gauge how last week's strong market sentiment will hold up in a shortened trading week that is light on economic data. New York Fed President John Williams will appear with Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr at a corporate governance event in New York City on Tuesday.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Michael Barr, Powell Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Fed, Housing, New York Fed, FedEx Locations: New York City

☆ Street looks to extend rally into a holiday-shortened week that is light on data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-17 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Also on tap are several speaking engagements for Federal Reserve members, including Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday and Thursday in his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. ET: St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard speaks 8:30 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks 12:25 am. ET: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks 10:00 a.m. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell departs after speaking during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on June 14, 2023.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Louis, Jim Bullard, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Tom Barkin, Friday's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mandel Ngan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Darden, FedEx, Louis Fed, Housing, NY Fed, Federal, Chicago Fed, Patterson Companies, Winnebago Industries, Algoma Steel, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, Commercial Metals, U.S, Treasury, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, AFP, Getty Locations: United States, Olive, Washington ,

☆ Wall Street prepares for more gains this month after past week's breakout
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For now, it's not a brighter economic picture or an exuberant earnings outlook pushing stocks higher. Another reason that some investors have come back to stocks is simply because the S & P 500 ended the week more than 23% above last October's low. "The next level of resistance is above 4,500 on the S & P. Historically, the market gains 14.5% on average between the 20% threshold level and the next decline of 5% or more. "Inflation peaked in June of last year and has been rapidly declining over the past 12 months. Trading the week after is often treacherous, Hirsch said, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling in 27 of the past 33 years and the S & P 500 down in 23 of 33 years.

Persons: it's, Sam Stovall, Clinton, Wells Fargo, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Jay Hatfield, Price, CarMax, Stovall, Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, Dow Jones Industrials, York Fed's John Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Avid Bioservices, Patterson Cos, Christopher Waller, Michael Bloom, Fred Imbert, Alex Harring Organizations: Fed, CFRA, Microsoft, Infrastructure Capital Management, Consumer, PPI, FedEx, Darden, Dow, Housing, Financial, Enerpac, Avid, Banking, Accenture, Commercial Metals, P, PMI Locations: New York, York, Dublin

☆ 'Jurassic Park' still has bite at 30, and here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Dan Heching | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —It’s been 30 years since Steven Spielberg’s dinosaurs stampeded across the screen in the first “Jurassic Park,” but it feels more recent. Admittedly, I was the exact target audience for this creature feature, and even though I was already somewhat of a self-taught critic (note the aforementioned mouthiness), I was awed by what I saw that summer three decades ago, and my impressions of “Jurassic Park” remain to this day. Joseph Mazzello in "Jurassic Park." Laura Dern, Sam Neill and Joseph Mazzello in "Jurassic Park." Add to that the amazing and meme-worthy smaller performances from Samuel L. Jackson (“Hold onto your butts!”), Wayne Knight (“Ah ah ah!

Persons: CNN — It’s, Steven Spielberg’s, Rex, Martin Ferrero, ”, Joseph Mazzello, dino, Kong ”, Ian Malcolm, Jeff Goldblum, Michael Crichton’s, Spielberg, John Williams, Laura Dern, Sam Neill, Goldblum, there’s Laura Dern, Sigourney Weaver, Sam Neill –, Samuel L, Jackson, Wayne Knight, Bob Peck, “, you’ve Organizations: CNN, Titans, Marvel

Just where that notional 'R-star' lies has been clouded by the wild supply-side distortions of the COVID-19 pandemic and last year's energy shock. Raising R-star from recent low levels would probably increase uncertainty in markets about its longer-term level and direction too. On the other hand, if R-star is closer to zero, as Williams has suggested should be the case, current policy is too tight. Indeed, R-star is set to fall "slightly below zero," the New York Fed chief said, without giving a time frame. This suggests that the U.S. central bank's current policy rate target range of 5.00%-5.25% is already highly restrictive, and will soon need to come down.

☆ Human metapneumovirus: Doctors say this is the most important virus you’ve never heard of
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Brenda Goodman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Cases of human metapneumovirus, or HMPV, spiked this spring, according to US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s respiratory virus surveillance systems. An underestimated threatStudies show that HMPV causes as much misery in the US each year as the flu and a closely related virus, RSV. Like those infections, HMPV can lead to intensive care and fatal cases of pneumonia in older adults. Leigh Davidson caught human metapneumovirus during a family celebration in early April. The new virus was dubbed human metapneumovirus.

☆ Fed's Williams says natural rate of interest still low despite pandemic
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Speaking to a conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, Williams’ remarks took on the technical concept of the natural rate of interest, which is the interest rate that neither slows nor stimulates the economy. Before the pandemic struck, this measure, referred to as R-Star, had been historically low, allowing the central bank to keep its interest rate target at fairly low levels. Williams, a leading intellectual architect of the R-Star concept, said his bank would be relaunching its public estimate Friday, updating it on a quarterly basis. Williams’ contended that even with the pandemic and the aftermath of its most acute phase, the fundamental story of a low natural interest rate remains in place. But his comments suggest that once the Fed’s battle to contain high inflation is over it may again at some later time be able to return short-term rates to low levels.

☆ Morning Bid: Rehash on rates ahead as ECB, BOE and Fed speak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Flowers are seen outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district in London, Britain May 11, 2023. REUTERS/Henry NichollsA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya RanganathanSeveral key central bankers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, appear at a variety of events today, ensuring investors have plenty of commentary, and nearly similar synopses. The messaging from the BOE after last week's 12th rate rise has been consistent: It isn't done, the labour market is tight, quantitative tightening might even pick up pace. Wall Street, Treasury yields, implied U.S. interest rates and the dollar all rose on Thursday. G7 leaders kicked off a three-day summit in Hiroshima on Friday, and the focus there is on fresh sanctions against Russia and what they say about China.

☆ Fed Chair Powell says rates may not have to rise as much as expected to curb inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that stresses in the banking sector could mean that interest rates won't have to be as high to control inflation. "So as a result, our policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals," he added. Powell spoke with markets mostly expecting the Fed at its June meeting to take a break from the series of rate hikes it began in March 2022. Powell characterized current Fed policy as "restrictive" and said future decisions would be data-dependent as opposed to being a pre-set course. "Importantly, there is no evidence that the era of very low natural rates of interest has ended," New York Fed President John Williams said in prepared remarks.

☆ Fed's Williams says world of low interest rates still prevails
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Williams' remarks took on the technical concept of the natural rate of interest, referred to as R-Star, which the New York Fed defines "as the real short-term interest rate expected to prevail when an economy is at full strength and inflation is stable." Before the pandemic struck, this measure had been historically low, allowing the central bank to keep its interest rate target at fairly low levels. Williams said that given efforts to understand how the pandemic had impacted R-Star, his regional Fed bank will once again provide an estimate on a quarterly basis. To translate R-Star into a real-world rate depends on taking the variable and adding it to the central bank's 2% inflation target. But his comments suggest that once the Fed's battle to contain high inflation is over, it may again at some later time be able to return short-term rates to low levels.

☆ The biggest home buyers in America are now selling more property than they're buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial property headwinds aside, today we're looking at the residential housing market, which is undergoing its own shifts, but not exactly in the same direction. Tell someone that the housing market is so unfavorable right now that the biggest home buyers in the country are actually net sellers now. American Homes 4 Rent, for example, bought 312 single-family homes and sold 666 to start the year. Similarly, Invitation Homes, the largest owner of single-family rentals in the US, bought 194 homes and sold 297 in the first quarter of 2o23. Naturally, the housing market has slowed down for everyday Americans, too, given the steep mortgage rates and lack of affordability.

☆ Morning Bid: Hopeful ahead of the weekend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Yoruk Bahceli. Markets are heading into the weekend basking in optimism that a debt ceiling deal to avert a catastrophic U.S. Treasury default will be struck soon. His team have reported progress in talks and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said a deal is "doable" by Sunday. The S&P 500 is up 1.8% this week, set for its best week since end-March when markets were in panic mode around a banking crisis dragging down the economy. Fed speakers also sounded the alarm; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday U.S. inflation doesn't look like it's cooling fast enough to merit a rate hike pause.

☆ Stock futures rise slightly on Thursday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures moved higher in overnight trading Thursday as Wall Street continued monitoring the situation surrounding the debt ceiling. Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 40 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. Shares of Ross Stores oscillated in overnight trading after the off-price retailer beat on earnings but shared a cautious outlook. Stocks are coming off a positive session in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.94% and 1.51%, respectively, to hit their highest closing levels since August. Thursday's moves boosted the major averages' weekly gains, with the Nasdaq up 3.3% and the S&P 500 on pace to end 1.8% higher.

☆ Morning bid: Fed rates to stay higher for longer, debt drama goes on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg on Tuesday that it was "too premature" to be discussing interest rate cuts. Loretta Mester, the President at the Cleveland Fed, said they're not at the point where rates can be kept on hold. The chance of a rate cut as early as June has also disappeared, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, having stood at almost 20% a month ago. DEBT CEILING OPTIMISMWith just over two weeks until a possible U.S. debt default unless Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling past its $31.3 trillion limit, talks appear to be heading toward a positive outcome. Biden, who will be travelling to Japan on Wednesday, is set to cut his trip short and skip stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea amid the debt ceiling stand-off.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors assessed what could be next for Federal Reserve interest rates following a slew of comments from central bank officials. Investors looked to comments from Fed officials and economic data as they weighed what could be next for interest rate policy and whether the U.S. economy is likely to contract. That comes after last week's inflation data, which was slightly below expectations, led many investors to hope for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have grown louder in recent weeks.

☆ Fed monetary policy mechanics would be tested by US debt default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That's because U.S. government bonds are the key to how the central bank sets its short-term interest rate target. Anything that gums up the Treasuries market could scramble those mechanics. Setting a baseline for short-term interest rates via its reverse repo facility in effect borrows cash from money market funds in transactions collateralized with government bonds. The Fed currently owns about $5.2 trillion in Treasury debt, and the bulk of it would be fine at the start of a default. And that's where pricing an impaired Treasury for Fed operations gets tricky.

☆ Stock futures are little changed as traders await Tuesday debt ceiling negotiations: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on April 10, 2023 in New York City. Futures tied to the S&P 500 slipped 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures inched lower by 0.08%. Investors are anxiously awaiting progress on a deal to raise the debt ceiling before June 1, which is the earliest date the Treasury Department has said the U.S. could default on its debt obligations. Biden has so far maintained that raising the debt ceiling is non-negotiable. McCarthy, however, has pushed for talks to broker a deal to raise the debt ceiling be tied to spending cuts.

☆ Debt ceiling crisis hangs over markets, with investors hoping to avoid a repeat of 2011
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Matthew J. Belvedere | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Republicans, led by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, want to attach spending cuts to any agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Biden and the Democrats say they are willing to talk about spending cuts but only outside the debt ceiling discussions. Raising the debt ceiling would allow the government to pay for spending that has already occurred. That year, the debt ceiling was raised at the last minute but not before a summer of bickering sent the S & P 500 down 17% from late July to mid-August. The market this past week stumbled with the debt ceiling deadline looming and over concern about regional bank failures.

☆ Good news for markets next week. Everyone agrees the debt ceiling 'X-date' is not here yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Good news for markets next week: no default, no credit agency downgrade, no apocalypse. Worrying 2011 precedent Recent history tells investors that stocks will move more violently during a debt ceiling standoff. Retail sales update Debt negotiations aside, investors get updates next week on the state of American consumer spending when April retail sales are reported Tuesday alongside earnings from Home Depot. Deutsche Bank estimates that April retail sales expanded month over month by 0.7%, the market consensus. Credit Suisse is less optimistic, forecasting that April retail sales grew by 0.6%, but, excluding vehicles, were unchanged.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Slowing inflation didn't excite investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Slowing inflation elicited only a muted response from markets, suggesting that investors are preoccupied with other concerns. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But the topic that dominated markets last year seemed to have elicited only a muted response yesterday, suggesting that investors are preoccupied with other concerns. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Instant View: US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing."

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

☆ US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing." The other thing is shelter, a huge component of CPI and it came in a little bit weaker."

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