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☆ Stock investors are staring down a bearish trifecta that could spark a 12% market drop by October, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

He's steering clear of Big Tech stocks, and for now he's only bullish on "dull, boring, and predictable" names. Tech stocks now account for highest portion of the S&P 500 since the early 2000s, according to an analysis from Société Générale. AdvertisementAnother risk to stocks lies in interest rates, Blain said, as borrowing costs look poised to stay higher for longer. "There is an awful lot of people in the financial markets who just don't understand that zero interest rates and ultra-low interest rates are not normal," Blain added. AdvertisementThe final risk Blain is eyeing is the upcoming presidential election, which contains a handful of uncertainties that could batter stocks, Blain said.

Persons: Bill Blain, Blain isn't, —, that's, Blain, Biden, he's, Générale, John Hussman, I've, eyeing, We've, Morgan Stanley, Stifel, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Big Tech, Service, China, Nasdaq, Tech, stoke, Richard Bernstein Advisors

☆ The housing market is close to a rare buying opportunity as prices are set to drop in pandemic boom towns, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewProspective homebuyers may be better off staying on the sidelines: the housing market is on its way to a rare buying opportunity, with steep home price declines bound for key areas of the real-estate market in the coming years, according to one analyst. That's an additional ingredient on the top, which just makes it more likely that prices fall," Gerli told BI. AdvertisementThe situation in the South's housing market also bears some similarities to previous housing bubbles, Gerli noted. In key boom towns, home prices have shot up 50%-70% since the pandemic, though incomes have only risen 10%-20%, he said, citing municipal data. It'll take a long time for housing to become more affordable overall, given how overvalued the market is, Gerli said.

Persons: —, Nick Gerli, Gerli, Freddie Mac, That's, Southern homebuilders, we've, it's, Redfin, Homebuyers, It's Organizations: Service, Business, National Association of Realtors, Builders Locations: Florida, Southern, Texas

☆ Russian inflation will soar even higher as sanctions spark another surge in gas prices, British intelligence says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Russian inflation will likely rise after the nation hiked its gas prices, British Intelligence said. Russia raised domestic gas prices 11% at the start of July. Inflation in Russia has remained elevated since the Ukraine war, clocking in at 8% in June. AdvertisementRussian inflation will worsen after a sudden spike in gas prices, according to a new report from the UK intelligence. Domestic gas prices in Russia spiked 11% at the start of July, likely to make up for industry losses stemming from Western sanctions, the note said.

Persons: — Organizations: British Intelligence, Service, British Ministry of Defence, Business Locations: Russia, Ukraine

☆ Why a recession will strike in 2025, according to a veteran economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US hasn't dodged a recession, and the economy is slowing too quickly to nail a soft landing, according to top economist Steve Hanke. AdvertisementM2 money supply has contracted for most of the past two years, and grew by just 0.5% year-over-year in early June, according to Fed data. That compares to early 2021, when the M2 money supply grew at 27% as pandemic stimulus juiced economic activity. The growth rate of the money supply is also well-below the 6% growth rate Hanke estimates is on par with 2% inflation. "The average guy on the street corner knows that if they goose the money supply, you're going to get inflation.

Persons: —, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Julia La Roche, — we've Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Fed, US, New York Fed Locations: New

☆ The stock market is flashing warning signs as tech shares are a 'valuation timebomb,' SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The SocGen strategist has been warning of a recession and coming stock crash for months. The tech sector is showing a number of signs that valuations are an overstretched "timebomb," he said. AdvertisementThe stock market is flashing warning signs that the tech stock frenzy is about to end, according to one of Wall Street's most bearish analysts. "As time marches on, there are few of us left who were in the industry during the 2000 Nasdaq crash let alone the 1987 crash. Analysts are expecting tech stocks to post forward earnings growth of around 30% year-over-year, Edwards noted, though tech stocks have actually been posting around 20% yearly earnings growth.

Persons: Albert Edwards, —, He's, Edwards, Russell, Morgan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Nasdaq, Tech

☆ Americans want prices to go down, but deflation could spark a wave of unemployment, top economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Falling prices could bring on a spike in unemployment and wage cuts, according to Paul Krugman. The Nobel economist pointed to pressure from consumers to lower high prices. The US appears to be entering a soft landing, he said, where inflation eases without a rise in unemployment. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAmericans hate high prices — but there's a reason people should hope the cost of goods and services don't drop back to pre-pandemic levels, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.

Persons: Paul Krugman, — Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business

☆ An ultra-safe corner of the commercial real estate debt market is seeing losses as the sector struggles
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Commercial real estate pain is sparking defaults in bonds backed by loans on high-quality properties. The recent stress is a sign of deep pain in the sector as values wobble and loans reach maturity. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPain in commercial real estate has spread to an even ultra-safe corner of the commercial mortgage market, with losses being seen for bonds backed by debt on the highest quality properties. Defaults on single-asset, single-borrower bonds — which are commercial mortgage-backed securities tied to a single, high-quality property —have skyrocketed over the past few years, according to Commercial Real Estate Finance Council data cited by the Wall Street Journal.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Real Estate Finance, Wall Street, Business

☆ Russia's weakened energy trade and lost access to the dollar will spark a severe recession within a year, a top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewVladimir Putin's claims that Russia's economy is doing just fine may soon be hard to back up. That's mainly because Russia is losing two things its economy desperately needs, he told Business Insider — a robust energy trade and a steady flow of US dollars. Moscow's economy is extremely dependent on petrodollars, or dollars obtained through the oil and gas trade, Gorodnichenko said. AdvertisementThat could put Russia's economy on the fast track to a recession in the next 12 months, Gorodnichenko predicted. Withering energy empireThe energy trade is Russia's biggest money maker.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin's, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Gorodnichenko, Putin, Gorodnichkeno Organizations: Service, UC Berkeley, Business, Kremlin, Bank for International Settlements, Soviet Union Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Soviet, Soviet Union, China

☆ Pain is coming for 2 sectors as high rates cut off the 'lifeblood' of easy leverage, billionaire Oaktree founder Howard Marks says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Tighter lending could weigh heavily on private equity and real estate, according to Howard Marks. Experts have cautioned on commercial real estate in particular as looming debt maturities pose a risk. That's created "fundamental questions" in specific parts of the real estate market, like office and retail properties, he added. The wider commercial real estate sector has over $1 trillion in debt set to mature in 2024, per Goldman Sachs. Billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht recently said he foresaw weekly bank closures and extreme losses in commercial real estate as high interest rates impact the sector.

Persons: Howard Marks, Marks, —, Banks, That's, Goldman Sachs, Barry Sternlicht Organizations: Service, Oaktree Capital Management, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Billionaire

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 closes at a fresh record above 5,600 as traders brace for June inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks climbed Wednesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high. Traders are waiting on the June inflation report, which will be a key input for Fed policy. Investors are anticipating two rate cuts from the central bank by year-end, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as traders waited for upcoming inflation data and took in Powell's testimony before Congress. Still, the outlook for Fed rate cuts was little changed.

Persons: —, Powell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

☆ Investors have lined up over $250 billion to scoop up distressed commercial real estate as pain in the sector continues
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Commercial real estate values have been on the decline in the US. Related storiesBanks, meanwhile, are quietly shedding exposure to commercial real estate debt. AdvertisementInvestors have been watching the commercial real estate industry since the pandemic when the work-from-home trend cleared offices of workers. Some real estate veterans are calling for a major correction in the industry. The commercial property sector, in particular, could see a wave of bankruptcies and properties with forced sales, according to Kiran Raichura, the deputy chief property economist at Capital Economics.

Persons: —, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Torsten Slok, Moody's, Kiran Raichura, Raichura Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Deutsche Bank, New York Times, Capital Economics Locations: North America, American

☆ Stock market today: Indexes poised for another record as traders digest Fed commentary
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks climbed higher on Wednesday and were poised to notch another fresh record. Traders were feeling upbeat after Fed Chair Powell delivered slightly dovish guidance on rate cuts before Congress on Tuesday. Investors are pricing in around two rate cuts by the end of the year, though bets on three rate cuts by December rose slightly, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement

Persons: —, Powell, Hogan, Riley Wealth Organizations: Fed, Service, Traders Locations: Here's

☆ Forget AI: These 3 overlooked areas of the stock market have 'coiled spring' upside, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewInvestors are still overtaken by the frenzy for generative AI — but there are underappreciated areas of the market that could offer gains like "coiled springs," according to JPMorgan Asset Management. Related storiesBy the fourth quarter of 2024, JPMorgan expects earnings expansion for the other 493 S&P 500 stocks to match that of the Magnificent 7, a dynamic shown in the chart below. Earnings growth is expected to climb in the S&P 500, barring the Magnificent Seven stocks. These stocks are bound to see upside due to "unexpected resiliency" in the US economy and the rising need to transport materials.

Persons: —, Microsoft — Organizations: Service, Asset Management, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Asset Management, Semiconductors

☆ 3 reasons why bitcoin could soar to $100,000 this year, according to Anthony Scaramucci
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bitcoin is still on track to see a major rally by the end of the year, Anthony Scaramucci said. Those catalysts include waning selling pressure, crypto repayments, and promising crypto legislation. Around 40%-50% of payouts could end up being reinvested in crypto, Scaramucci estimated, based on the loyalty many "hardcore" early bitcoin investors have. That's one promising sign bitcoin is becoming a more widely accepted storage of value, which is bullish for its long-term trajectory, Scaramucci said. Bitcoin's price has been depressed partly due to temporary selling pressure, Scaramucci said.

Persons: Bitcoin, Anthony Scaramucci, —, Scaramucci, That's Organizations: Service, Skyridge, bitcoin, CNBC, GOP, Intelligence Locations: bitcoin, United States

☆ Stocks are likely to see a 10% correction as earnings weaken and election uncertainty swirls, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks are likely to drop around 10% between now and the November election, Morgan Stanley predicted. That's because corporate earnings look weak and need several catalysts to improve, the bank's Mike Wilson said. Other forecasters have sounded the alarm for a soon-to-come correction as stocks look overvalued. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks are poised to see a double-digit drop, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson.

Persons: Stocks, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, —, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, That's, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business

☆ Stocks will struggle and a recession is on the table if the Fed fails to cut rates by September, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rally in stocks could be endangered if the Fed doesn't cut rates soon, Jeremy Siegel warned. The Wharton professor made the case for the central bank to cut rates in September as data softens. AdvertisementThe rally in stocks and the strength of the economy is at risk if the Fed doesn't start cutting interest rates soon, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. No rate cut in September could put a recession on the table, Siegel warned, in addition to endangering the trajectory for stocks. Advertisement"So although I think stocks are still in an uptrend and the growth stocks are still certainly walloping the value stocks, I think Powell has to take note," Siegel said.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, —, who's, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, New, Fed

☆ How a New York short-seller took on one of the world's richest people, wiped out $150 billion in market value, and barely made any money
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Read previewNate Anderson, the chief mind behind activist short-seller Hindenburg Research, has had an eventful past 18 months. AdvertisementDetailed below is the considerable back-and-forth that's taken place since Hindenburg's initial shot across the bow of Adani Group. It cited "numerous examples"of those companies funneling money through private companies owned by Adani, before cash was set to Adani's listed public companies. AdvertisementThe short-seller's investigation also found Adani's private and public companies to have "numerous" undisclosed transactions with other parties, the researchers found, which violates regulatory laws in India. Conflict over Hindenburg's short-selling arrangementIndian regulators have raised specific questions about the structure of Hindenburg's short bet on Adani Group.

Persons: —, Nate Anderson, Gautam Adani, Hindenburg, it's, Anderson, Gautam, Hindenburg's, Adani, SEC —, Kingdon, who's, he's, Nikola, Carl Icahn Organizations: Service, Hindenburg, Business, Group, Adani, Adani Group, Hindenburg Research, The Securities, Exchange Board, SEC, Kingdon Capital Management, Regulators, Lordstown Motors, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times, Times, charlatans Locations: India, Manhattan, Adani, New York

☆ The stage is set for 2 rate cuts this year, but investors need to be careful adding more exposure to the stock market, JPMorgan strategy chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recent data sets the Fed up to cut interest rates twice this year, JPMorgan's David Kelly said. The bank's chief global strategist predicted Fed rate cuts were coming in September and December. Yet, he warned that stocks are expensive, and investors should be wary of adding exposure at high valuations. The chief global strategist predicted central bankers would begin dialing back interest rates at the September policy meeting, with another cut likely in December. But rate cuts shouldn't be the signal for investors to flock to the stock market, Kelly said.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, —, David Kelly, That's, Kelly, We've, John Hussman Organizations: Service, Asset, CNBC

☆ The real estate market is in for sharp correction with losses that could take a decade to recover from, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Give it another two or three years — that's when the real estate market gets hit the most." Meanwhile, the fallout in the commercial real estate sector could be more severes. However, banks, bearing huge losses in their mortgage and commercial real estate portfolios, will be more hesitant to lend, weighing on demand and causing real estate prices to plunge. Advertisement"It's possible we'll see a 50% [correction] in some spots, but I would say somewhere around a 30% correction in real estate," Vermeulen said of real estate investments. Those losses could take seven to 10 years to recover from, he said, due to the long nature of real estate cycles.

Persons: —, Chris Vermeulen, Vermeulen, — that's, Vermueule Organizations: Service, Traders, Business, Census, Challenger, Bloomberg, National Association of Realtors

☆ The real-estate market is in for sharp correction with losses that could take a decade to recover from, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Give it another two or three years — that's when the real-estate market gets hit the most." The fallout in the commercial real-estate sector could meanwhile be more severe. But banks, bearing huge losses in their mortgage and commercial real-estate portfolios, will be more hesitant to lend, weighing on demand and causing real-estate prices to plunge. Advertisement"It's possible we'll see a 50% [correction] in some spots, but I would say somewhere around a 30% correction in real estate," Vermeulen said of real-estate investments. Those losses could take seven to 10 years to recover from, he said, because of the long nature of real-estate cycles.

Persons: —, Chris Vermeulen, who's, Vermeulen, — that's Organizations: Service, Traders, Business, Census, Challenger, Bloomberg, Fed, National Association of Realtors

☆ Stock market today: US stocks edge up as traders mull cooler private payroll data
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks were slightly higher on Wednesday after the latest private payroll report. Private payrolls rose 150,000 jobs last month, fewer than expected. Markets are looking ahead to the June nonfarm payroll report as the next key data point. AdvertisementUS stocks ticked higher on Wednesday as traders took in softer-than-expected jobs data. ADP data showed private payrolls grew just 150,000 last month, less than the 160,000 jobs economists expected.

Persons: payrolls, —, Nela Richardson Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, ADP, Federal Reserve, Independence

☆ 'The worst is in the rearview mirror': Why Wall Street thinks Tesla's comeback story is finally here
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Tesla stock had a tough first half of 2024 but Wall Street is eyeing a turnaround. Tesla deliveries slumped for the second quarter in a row, but they were stronger than analysts had expected, with clocking in at 443,956, compared to estimates of 436,000. AdvertisementTesla also reduced its inventory over the second quarter and boosted its energy storage to an all-time high. Morgan Stanley reiterated its "overweight" rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $310, implying another 30% upside. In the most bullish scenario, Tesla stock could rally to $400 by the end of the year, Ives said, implying 63% upside from current levels.

Persons: —, Wall, Musk, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Elon, Garrett Nelson, Robotaxi, Nelson, CFRA, Keith Fitz, Gerald, Gerald Research, Dan Ives, Wedbush, Ives Organizations: Service, Elon, Wall Street, Investors, Tesla Energy, CFRA, CNBC, Wedbush Securities

☆ Russia is looking to rein in the country's property boom as it tries to cool an overheating economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's government has spent around half a trillion rubles since 2020 to fund a program offering mortgages at rates as low as 8%. But that program has ushered a wave of Russians into the nation's real estate market, which has sent property prices soaring. Residential property prices in Russia rose to a fresh record in 2023, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. AdvertisementRising property prices are largely attributed to increased housing demand over the past few years. The Bank of Russia also reported "signs of overheating" in the mortgage lending market late last year.

Persons: —, Russia's, Elvira Nabiullina, Aleksei Kiselev, Kiselev Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Bank for International, Urban Economics, Bank of Russia, Bank of, Florence School of Banking, Finance, Inflation, Carnegie Endowment, Bank of Russia's Locations: shuttering, Russia, Russian, Bank of Russia

☆ The big winners of the AI boom are the most boring companies imaginable
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Some of the main winners of the AI boom will be stocks currently sliding under the radar. Across the road, ground has been broken on another data center. This specifically means data centers, which will be increasingly key for storing information as AI becomes more mainstream. On a single-stock basis, Digital Realty Trust — the only data center real estate investment trust listed on the New York Stock Exchange — has jumped 38% over the last year, while the Global X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure ETF has climbed 12%. Mortonson says it's difficult for software companies to build around AI.

Persons: —, Ted Mortonson, Baird, we're, Goldman Sachs, hasn't, That's, Travis Miller, Miller, Mortonson, There's Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Goldman, Digital Realty Trust, New York Stock Exchange, X Data, Digital Infrastructure ETF, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Morningstar, Business, Software, Utilities Locations: US, Korea, India, Europe

☆ Tesla is about to embark on a 2nd half rally as the company's comeback story is starting, Wedbush's Dan Ives says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Tesla stock is set for big upside in the second half of 2024, Wedbush predicted. That's because the carmaker is finally a turnaround in weak demand from China, Dan Ives said. But those headwinds are easing, particularly as things begin to stabilize in China, Ives said. The release could represent a major turning point for Tesla stock, Ives said, previously calling the robotaxi a "magic model" for the company. I believe this is a stock that's going to have a massive run second-half of the year."

Persons: Wedbush, Dan Ives, Ives, —, Wedbush's Dan Ives, Tesla, Elon, that's, Trump, Joe Biden, Musk, Wells Organizations: Service, CNBC Locations: China

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