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☆ Markets are clamoring for the Fed to start cutting soon: 'What is it they're looking for?'
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to speak at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. If the Federal Reserve is starting to set the table for interest rate reductions, some parts of the market are getting impatient for dinner to be served. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors, said on CNBC just after the Fed concluded its meeting Wednesday. The Fed needs to start that process back gradually to normal, which means gradually reducing interest rates." If the inflation job is done, or we're on that glide path, it's OK, the Fed can start stepping aside."

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Claudia Sahm, Sahm Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Century Advisors, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Fed holds rates steady and notes progress on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowWASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday held short-term interest rates steady but indicated that inflation is getting closer to its target, which could open the door for future interest rate cuts. They also preserved a declaration that more progress is needed before rate reductions can happen. "In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective." Price pressures off 2022 peakEconomic data of late has indicated that price pressures are well off the boil from their peak in mid-2022, when inflation hit its highest level since the early 1980s. The Fed's preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, shows inflation around 2.5% annually, though other gauges indicate slightly higher readings.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Stocks, Price Organizations: WASHINGTON – Federal, Gross

☆ Private payroll growth slowed to 122,000 in July, less than expected, ADP says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Private job growth slowed further in July while the pace of wage gains hit a three-year low, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added just 122,000 jobs on the month, the slowest pace since January and below the upwardly revised 155,000 in June. Several sectors reported net losses on the month. The ADP report comes two days before the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services releases its nonfarm payrolls count, which, unlike the ADP tally, includes government jobs. The two reports can differ substantially, with ADP overshooting the BLS estimate of 136,000 for private payrolls in June.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson Organizations: FedEx, Broadway, Companies, ADP, Federal, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Services Locations: New York City, Midwest

☆ Here's everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. They don't want investors to start pricing in a rate cut coming in September and there's literally nothing else that could possibly happen," he said. "Opening the door for that rate cut is probably the most appropriate thing for them at this point," Reynolds added. Expectations for easingGlenmede expects that starting in September, the Fed could cut at each of the three remaining meetings. The Fed will not provide an update on its quarterly summary of economic projections at this meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Kleponis, they've, Michael Reynolds, Reynolds, there's, it'll, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Bill English, We've Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, AFP, Getty, Glenmede, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Yale, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Markets now pricing in three rate cuts before the end of the year following better inflation news
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Improving news on inflation again has raised investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve soon will start to aggressively lower interest rates. Futures market pricing now indicates that while the Fed will remain on hold at next week's policy meeting, it will commence cutting in September and move again in November and December. The market-implied probability for a September cut nudged up to about 90% Friday morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool that measures fed funds futures pricing. Traders in early 2024 were pricing in at least six cuts this year, but the central bank's rate-setting group has remained on hold for a year. Following the two-day meeting that concludes next Wednesday, the Fed meeting schedule is empty for August, save for the all-important annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, —, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Friday's Commerce Department, RSM, Traders, Federal Open, Fed Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Fed’s key inflation gauge rose 2.5% in June from a year ago, in line with expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Fed officials use the PCE measure as their main baseline to gauge inflation, which continues to run above the central bank's 2% long-range target. An important gauge for the Federal Reserve showed inflation eased slightly from a year ago in June, helping to open the way for a widely anticipated September interest rate cut. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations. Goods prices fell 0.2% on the month, while services increased 0.2%. The report also indicated that personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, much more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Real gross domestic product , a measure of all the goods and services produced during the April-through-June period, increased at a 2.8% annualized pace adjusted for seasonality and inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for growth of 2.1% following a 1.4% increase in the first quarter. Economic activity in the U.S. was considerably stronger than expected during the second quarter, according to an initial estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department. The so-called chain-weighted price index, which takes into account changes in consumer behavior, increased 2.3% for the quarter, below the 2.6% estimate. There also is pressure in the housing market: Sales are declining while home prices continue to climb, putting pressure on first-time homebuyers.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Stock, Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Why an indicator that has foretold almost every recession doesn't seem to be working anymore
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

According to the New York Federal Reserve, which uses the 10-year/three-month curve, a recession should happen about 12 months later. The inversion is not aloneMaking the situation even more complicated is that the yield curve isn't the only indicator showing reason for caution about how long the post-Covid recovery can last. But the rate dynamics have helped companies escape what usually happens in an inverted curve. With an inverted curve hitting their net interest margins, banks may opt to lend less, causing a pullback in consumer spending that can lead to recession. This could provide something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for the yield curve.

Persons: Alex Kent, hasn't, —, there's, it's, Mark Zandi, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, SMBC, Quincy Krosby, We've, Jim Paulsen, Paulsen, That's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's, New York Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities, Gross, National Bureau of Economic Research, Commerce Department, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: New York, SMBC Nikko, Wells Fargo

☆ How Biden's unpopular economic record could be a challenge for Kamala Harris
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

As the frontrunner for the Democratic party's nomination, Kamala Harris will have to run, for better or worse, on President Joe Biden's economic record. It will be just one challenge Harris will have to overcome to defeat her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump . Despite historically low unemployment and macro growth that has defied long-held expectations for recession, the economy is Biden's soft spot. "I don't see a lot of daylight between her views on economic policy and those of the administration," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics , a Democrat who has advised administrations of both parties. Possible change at the Fed One area of difference between Biden and Harris could be a crucial one — the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Biden, Harris, Donald Trump, She's, Greg Valliere, she's, There's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, nonfarm, Joseph LaVorgna, Biden's, Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, reappoint Powell Organizations: Democratic, Biden, Republican, AGF Investments, Reuters, Moody's, Democrat, Economic Council, Nikko Securities, Federal Reserve, Senate, Beacon, Advisors Locations: California

☆ This week's 'manic market' action looks a lot like the dot-com bust in 2000, economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The past week's tumultuous stock market action harkened back to the dark days of 2000 as the dot-com bubble was bursting, according to economist and strategist David Rosenberg. With tech leaders sagging and investors heading for cover, the widely followed market bear sees similarities between two eras that showed overheated investor sentiment and an overvalued market. "The massive daily swings reflect a manic market becoming unglued," the head of Rosenberg Research wrote in his daily market note Friday. "The action is highly reminiscent of what happened in the immediate aftermath of the Nasdaq rolling off the bubble highs in March 2000." Alfred E. Neuman feeling when I look at the action in the equity market and the reasons for this relentless exuberance," Rosenberg said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Alfred E, Neuman, Rosenberg, Russell Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow Jones, American, of, Investors, Investors Intelligence

☆ U.S. stock exchanges operating normally, issue with FTSE Russell indexes amid global outage
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on July 3, 2024. "NYSE markets are fully operational and we expect a normal open this morning," a spokesperson for the exchange said Friday. There were other issues, though: Russell US Indexes, which include the closely watched Russell 2000 small-cap gauge, were not calculating after the market open. "This disruption is affecting FTSE Russell real-time indices. Though the Russell indexes weren't updating on digital platforms, the various indexes were being calculated without interruption.

Persons: Russell, Gregory Falco Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, NYSE, Russell, Cornell University cybersecurity

☆ Treasury yields tick higher as markets digest comments by Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Katrina Bishop | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was trading around 4.1672% at 2:20 a.m. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also 2 basis points higher at 4.4524%. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday as investors digested a range of comments by Federal Reserve officials and what they could mean for interest rates. It comes as traders increasingly bet on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a reduction in July now seen as highly unlikely. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rates would likely be cut before inflation reaches 2%.

Persons: Christopher Waller, John Williams, Thomas Barkin, Jerome Powell, you've, Powell, Dow Jones, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, York Fed, Wall Street Journal, Richmond Fed, Deutsche Bank, Economic, of Washington D.C

☆ Fed Governor Waller sees central bank 'getting closer' to an interest rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday suggested that interest rate cuts are ahead soon as long as there are no major surprises on inflation and employment. "So, while I don't believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted." Keeping with statements from other policymakers, Waller's sentiments point to an unlikelihood of a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month, but a stronger likelihood of a move in September. "Given that I believe the first two scenarios have the highest probability of occurring, I believe the time to lower the policy rate is drawing closer," Waller said. Williams noted that inflation data is "all moving in the right direction and doing that pretty consistently" and is "getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we're looking for."

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal, Kansas City Fed, Market Committee, CNBC, New York Fed, Wall Street, Fed, Traders

☆ Inflation falls 0.1% in June from prior month, helping case for lower rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The monthly inflation rate dipped in June, providing further cover for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates later this year. The all-items index rate fell from 3.3% in May, when it was flat on a monthly basis. The annual increase for the core rate was the smallest since April 2021. A 3.8% slide in gasoline prices held back inflation for the month, offsetting 0.2% increases in both food prices and shelter. Housing-related costs have been one of the most stubborn components of inflation and make up about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, so a pullback in the rate of increase is another positive sign.

Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI Locations: U.S

☆ Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell testify live before Senate banking panel
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday to the Senate Banking Committee as part of his semiannual address to Congress on monetary policy. With the Fed still on hold regarding interest rates, Powell's remarks will be scrutinized closely for hints about what it will take to start easing. In his most recent remarks, Powell said he and his colleagues "want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy." Powell will continue his testimony Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell's, Powell, Humphrey, Read, it's Organizations: Senate, Committee, Financial Services, CNBC, YouTube

☆ Fed Chair Powell says holding rates high for too long could jeopardize economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the "Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 6, 2024. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth. Setting the stage for a two-day appearance on Capitol Hill this week, the central bank leader said the economy remains strong as does the labor market, despite some recent cooling. Powell cited some easing in inflation, which he said policymakers stay resolute in bringing down to their 2% goal. The commentary coincides with the approaching one-year anniversary of the last time the Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark interest rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Financial, Federal Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Trump's increasing election odds after debate already affecting financial markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Financial markets are slowly starting to absorb the possibility that what was once a toss-up presidential election campaign has taken a notable turn. That has put investors in a quandary of how to handicap what a Trump presidency would look like from an economic and market standpoint. .SPX mountain 2024-06-28 S & P 500 performance since the debate However, the bond market has had a bit more of a reaction. The first Trump presidency and some of his campaign rhetoric nevertheless has led to guesswork about what could be ahead. "This particularly favors financials and there will be an expectation of more M & A approval in a Trump presidency.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, specter, Biden, Trump, Mark Malek, Siebert AdvisorNXT, Handicapping, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Kamala Harris, Harris, Chris Krueger, TD Cowen, Krueger, ABC's George Stephanopoulos, —, Sarah Min Organizations: Republican, Trump, Treasury, Bank of, White, Reading, New York Times, Biden, Democrat Locations: Washington

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500, Nasdaq close at fresh records: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday night after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at fresh record highs. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.12% and 0.18%, respectively. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed Monday's trading session at all-time highs again, each rising slightly as investors awaited key inflation data and earnings results due out later this week. The broad market index closed up 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.3%. Bank earnings results from Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are due out Friday.

Persons: Courtney Garcia, CNBC's, Jerome Powell, Powell, JPMorgan Chase, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: New York Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow Jones, Reserve, Payne Capital Management, Senate, Financial Services, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Citigroup, JPMorgan

☆ U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Job seekers attends the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair held at the Amerant Bank Arena on June 26, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida. Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe U.S. economy again added slightly more jobs than expected in June though the unemployment rate increased, the Labor Department reported Friday. The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021 and providing a conflicting sign for Federal Reserve officials weighing their next move on monetary policy. A broader unemployment rate which counts discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.4%. Household employment, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, increased by 116,000.

Persons: Joe Raedle, Nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: Amerant, Labor Department, Dow, Federal Reserve Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida

☆ Friday's jobs report expected to show slowing payroll gains as concern rises about broader economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Payroll gains so far in 2024 have totaled 1.24 million, down about 50,000 a month below the same period a year ago. "Specifically, I'm thinking more about the unemployment rate, which has been slowly trending up." Under normal circumstances, a 4% unemployment rate would be cause for celebration, not concern. The May rate was 0.5 percentage point above its 12-month low of 3.5% in July 2023, potentially triggering a recession indicator called the Sahm Rule. The rule has shown consistently that whenever the unemployment rate on a three-month average eclipses its 12-month low by half a percentage point, the economy is in recession.

Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Nick Bunker, it's

☆ Fed says it's not ready to cut rates until 'greater confidence' inflation is moving to 2% goal
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated that inflation is moving in the right direction but not quickly enough for them to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed. "Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the meeting summary said. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation, a level it has been above since early in 2021. Since the meeting, officials have largely stuck to a cautious script stressing data dependency rather than forecasts. However, there have been indications from multiple officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, that continued encouraging readings on inflation would provide confidence that rates can be lowered.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Open Market, Fed Locations: Portugal

☆ Private payrolls grew by just 150,000 in June, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Private payroll growth edged lower in June, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that indicates a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Companies added 150,000 jobs for the month, below the upwardly revised 157,000 in May and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 160,000. The sector added 63,000 jobs, easily the biggest gain among the categories that payrolls processing firm ADP measures. ADP's report serves as a precursor to the more closely watched nonfarm payrolls count that the Labor Department will release Friday. For May, the BLS reported that private payrolls rose by 229,000, or 72,000 more than ADP's estimate.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson, Job switchers Organizations: Companies, Labor Department, ADP, of Labor, BLS Locations: U.S

☆ A new index is using AI tools to measure U.S. economic growth in a broader way
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Measuring the strength of the sprawling U.S. economy is no easy task, so one firm is sending artificial intelligence in to do the job. The Zeta Economic Index, launched Monday, uses generative AI to analyze what its developers call "trillions of behavioral signals," largely focused on consumer activity, to score growth on both a broad level of health and a separate measure on stability. At its core, the index will gauge online and offline activity across eight categories, aiming to give a comprehensive look that incorporates standard economic data points such as unemployment and retail sales combined with high-frequency information for the AI age. "The algorithm is looking at traditional economic indicators that you would normally look at. But then inside of our proprietary algorithm, we're ingesting the behavioral data and transaction data of 240 million Americans, which nobody else has," said David Steinberg, co-founder, chairman and CEO of Zeta Global.

Persons: David Steinberg Organizations: Zeta Economic Index, Zeta

☆ Key Fed measure shows inflation rose 2.6% in May from a year ago, as expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

May marked the lowest annual rate since March 2021, which was the first time in this economic cycle that inflation topped the Federal Reserve's 2% target. An important economic measure for the Federal Reserve showed Friday that inflation during May slowed to its lowest annual rate in more than three years. Including food and energy, headline inflation was flat on the month and also up 2.6% on an annual basis. Outside of the inflation numbers, the Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed that personal income rose 0.5% on the month, stronger than the 0.4% estimate. Shelter-related costs have proven stickier than Fed officials have anticipated and have helped keep the central bank from reducing interest rates as expected this year.

Persons: Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Dow, Commerce Department, Federal, Asset Management, Gross, Atlanta Fed Locations: PCE

☆ There's a big Fed inflation reading coming Friday. Here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There could be some pretty good inflation news on the way from the Commerce Department when it releases a key economic report Friday. If that date rings a bell, it's when core PCE first passed the Fed's coveted 2% inflation target during this cycle. Should the core PCE price forecasts transpire, it will serve as a milestone of sorts. "We are in line with [the forecast] that the PCE core pricing data will come in soft," said Beth Ann Bovino, chief economist at U.S. Bank. In addition to the inflation numbers, the Commerce Department at 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Dow Jones, Beth Ann Bovino, It's, pocketbooks, Lisa Cook, Cook, Bovino Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed Locations: Brooklyn , New York

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