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The unwinding of the carry trade that's battered stocks in recent days isn't done, JPMorgan says. It says that trade is probably only half over, as Japan looks poised to continue raising rates. AdvertisementThe "carry trade" unwind that helped spark the bloodbath in US stocks over the past few days likely isn't close to over, a JPMorgan strategist says. Market commentators say that's been partly stoked by a surprise 15-basis-point interest-rate hike in Japan, which triggered some investors to unwind a trade that's become popular in recent years. In this trade, investors borrow cheap yen and deploy the cash into higher-yielding assets elsewhere, like US stocks.
Persons: , Arindam Sandilya, that's, Sandilya Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, FX, Bloomberg, Bank of Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
The S & P 500 was higher Tuesday, one day after the broad market index posted its worst day in nearly two years amid revived fears of a recession. The current pullback has all the hallmarks of a market correction, the strategist said. So, don't rush to try to catch a falling knife," Malek said. The S & P 500 on Tuesday traded about 7% below a record high reached last month. Besides, he said, it is hard to think of a market correction occurring in August, when a bottom is historically more likely to happen in the month of October.
Persons: Thomas Salopek, Salopek, Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, CFRA's Sam Stovall, Stovall, Strategas, Chris Verrone, Verrone Organizations: Nasdaq, JPMorgan
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDow tumbles more than 1,000 points, S&P 500 sees worst day in two yearsDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist and Scott Wren, Wells Fargo Investment Institute senior global market strategist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: David Kelly, Scott Wren Organizations: Dow, JPMorgan Asset Management, Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Jason Hunter says there are no signs of a 'tactical bottom' in the markets yetJason Hunter, JPMorgan head of technical strategy, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss technicals of the market sell-off as the Nasdaq 100 hit his downside target zone but shows no signs of a 'tactical bottom.'
Persons: Jason Hunter, JPMorgan Organizations: Nasdaq
The Federal Reserve is catching some heat for the historic stock market plunge. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is to blame for the historic stock market plunge since last week, according to a growing chorus of market experts. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note that the lack of Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year will weigh on economic growth in the second half, and that any coming interest rate cuts from the Fed likely won't be enough. AdvertisementRegardless of what the Fed's motivation might be with waiting until September to cut interest rates, the market is taking away a pretty clear message. "There is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve," Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch said.
Persons: , Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, they've, we're, Kamala Harris, Mislav Matejka, Matejka, Paul Volcker, Volcker, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, John Lynch Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, CNBC, Washington DC, JPMorgan, Fed, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: Iran, Japan, Washington
Why the stock market is freaking out again
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The Dow tumbled more than 1,000 points at the open, and the broader market plunged 3% Monday. The Nasdaq, full of risky tech stocks, dropped 3.7%. Although that’s not in and of itself an unhealthy unemployment rate, its sudden march higher is alarming: Last year, the unemployment rate was at its lowest level since the moon landing. Traders are beginning to unwind big trades on Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and other tech stocks that had been surging since the beginning of last year. Monday’s rout, if it ends at current levels, wouldn’t even crack the top 100 worst days in market history.
Persons: Dow, that’s, Goldman Sachs, That’s, Jeremy Siegel, , , Siegel, Stocks, it’ll, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: CNN, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, JPMorgan, CNBC, Traders, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Berkshire Locations: Wall
Three years ago, JPMorgan Chase became the first bank with a branch in all 48 contiguous states. "We're still at very low single-digit branch share, and we know that in order for us to really optimize our investment in these communities, we need to be at a higher branch share," Roberts said in an interview with CNBC. Wells Fargo and Bank of America closed the highest net number of branches, while JPMorgan was the most active net opener. According to FDIC research collated by KBW, growth in bank branches peaked right before the financial crisis, in 2007. When it comes to prioritizing locations for new branches, Roberts said it's a "balance of art and science."
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon's, Dimon, Jennifer Roberts, We're, Roberts, Wells, KBW, it's Organizations: JPMorgan, Chase Consumer Banking, CNBC, Midwest, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of America Locations: Iowa, Minnesota , Nebraska , Missouri , Kansas, Arkansas, U.S, Wells Fargo
More than 70 S & P 500 names are slated to report this week, including Disney and Caterpillar . Tuesday Uber Technologies is set to report earnings before the bell. This quarter: The ride-hailing giant is expected to report a 70% year-over-year increase in earnings, LSEG data shows. What history shows: Uber has beaten earnings expectations in six of the last seven quarters, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group. Wednesday Walt Disney is set to report earnings before the open.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Benjamin Black, Uber, Walt Disney, Wells, Steven Cahall, LLY, Eli Lilly's Organizations: Disney, Caterpillar . Pharmaceutical, behemoth, CNBC, Technologies, Investors, Autonomous Vehicle, Deutsche Bank, Investment, Caterpillar, JPMorgan Locations: California
The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.
Persons: , July’s, , , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American
Here are JPMorgan's top stock picks for August
  + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Some stocks have been added and others on this month's list. EQT Corp. has been added, while Arista Networks and Coherent Corp. – two names on last month's list – have been removed. Here are some of JPMorgan's top picks for August: EQT was named as part of the bank's value strategy. Of consumer stocks, McDonald's is also viewed as a value play, with shares of the fast-food chain down 7% this year. For growth stocks, Amazon made the cut.
Persons: EQT, McDonald's, Joe Erlinger, Brian Olsavsky, Donald Trump, Olsavsky, Eli Lilly –, Organizations: JPMorgan, Dow Jones, EQT Corp, Arista Networks, Amazon, Paris, Microsoft Locations: EQT, McDonald's U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFriday's jobs report makes September cut very likely: JPMorgan’s David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; David Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist; Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief economist; and Steve Liesman join 'CNBC's Special' to discuss what Friday's weak job reports suggest, their expectation from the Fed, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan’s David Kelly David Kelly, David Zervos, Stephanie Roth, Wolfe, Steve Liesman Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Jefferies, Wolfe Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't see why Fed wants to take 'baby steps' with rate cuts, says JPMorgan's FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss Feroli's expectations for rate cuts, Friday's jobs report in context with other economic data, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's Feroli Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan
The data also points a spotlight on the economic platform of Vice President Kamala Harris, who is poised to accept the Democratic presidential nomination this month amid signs of a slowing economy. But her economic views are less defined, maintaining broad references to strengthening the middle class, even as her record investigating Wall Street and her farther-left 2019 primary campaign platform have executives and investors on edge. According to those close to Harris, advisers and administration officials, Harris’ economic views were described as “pragmatic,” “centrist,” and even “pro-business,” with a goal of leveraging private-sector friendships for better outcomes at the ground level. Personnel as policyHarris has two staffers who manage economic and domestic policy issues, and she was briefed by staff on the most recent jobs data. “He is as close to Harris and the second gentleman as almost anyone in the administration,” said an official close to Harris.
Persons: Harris, Kamala Harris, , Mike Pyle, Don Graves, David Turk, Wally Adeyemo, Janet Yellen, Pyle, Brian Deese, Rohini Kosoglu –, Brian Nelson, Nelson’s, Nelson, “ That’s, Jason Furman, Barack Obama, Rohit Chopra, Massachusetts Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Biden, Vermont Sen, Bernie Sanders, , , she’s, Tom Vilsack, Vilsack, Ray McGuire, Lazard, Blair Effron, Jamie Dimon, “ She’s, Lina Khan, Harris “, Lina Organizations: CNN, Biden, Federal Reserve, Democratic, National Security Council, National Economic Council, , Commerce, Energy, Consumer Financial, Bureau, Vermont, Democratic Party, White, Commerce Department, Department of Agriculture, Wall Street, Centerview Partners, JPMorgan Chase, Naval Observatory, Meta, Target, Citigroup, eBay, Federal Trade Commission Locations: Massachusetts, Columbus , Ohio, Syracuse , New York, Georgia, Central America, Columbia, California
Along with the downgrade, Roach slashed her price target to $286 from $463. Along with the downgrade, Arya cut his price target to $23 from $35 a share. — Samantha Subin 6:15 a.m.: Apple results suggest 'best is yet to come,' support multiyear upgrade cycle The latest earnings report from Apple reaffirms analysts' confidence in the technology giant and a multiyear upgrade cycle when it launches its latest iPhone later this year. Bernstein's Mark Shmulik trimmed his price target by $5 to $210 a share but encouraged investors to use the sell-off as an entry point. His price target of $95, down from $99, implies downside of 6.6% over the next 12 months.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Henning Cosman, Cosman, — Samantha Subin, Goldman Sachs downgrades Lululemon, Goldman Sachs, Lululemon, Brooke Roach, Roach, LULU YTD, Vivek Arya, Arya, Samantha Subin, America's Wamsi Mohan, macOS, Samik Chatterjee, Citi's Atif Malik, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak, ISI's Mark Mahaney, Bernstein's Mark Shmulik, Wells, downgrades Morgan Stanley Wells Fargo, Mike Mayo, Mayo, Morgan, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Barclays, Ferrari, Bank of America, Intel, AMD, Apple, Apple Intelligence, America's, Amazon, Web Services, North Locations: Europe, U.S, Lululemon
Bank transfer or payment fraud losses spiked by nearly 150% over that span to $1.9 billion. The big banks that run Zelle in particular “rarely” reimburse customers duped by scammers, according to a recent Senate investigation. So Democrats in Congress are introducing new legislation that would seek to crack down on payment scams by closing loopholes in existing law. For instance, Zelle says that while customers hurt by unauthorized activity are “typically” able to get their money back, victims of scams may not. Under pressure from lawmakers, last year banks on Zelle began refunding some victims of imposter scams.
Persons: scammers, Maxine Waters, Sens, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, ” Blumenthal, “ Zelle, Zelle, Wells, ” Zelle, ” Ariana Duval, Duval, , ” Duval, Cameron Fowler, EWS, ” Fowler, Fowler, he’s “, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Consumers, Bank, Republican, Rep, Senate, CNN, Homeland Security, Governmental Affairs, Investigations, Blumenthal, JPMorgan, Bank of America, North Carolina Agricultural, Technical State University, PayPal, Warning, Connecticut Democrat Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, Zelle, Connecticut
The Japanese government raised rates on Wednesday, breaking from its historically dovish stance. The drop comes just two days after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in an effort to boost the yen's value amidst higher inflation. The BoJ raised rates from a range of 0% to 0.1% to a benchmark 0.25%. The bank raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years back in March, ending its negative interest-rate policy. Others add that, as the market prices in the rate hikes, it will adjust accordingly.
Persons: , Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Nikkei, Service, Bank of, Bank of Japan, Intel, Bank of America, JPMorgan Locations: Tokyo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's David Kelly, Jefferies' David Zervos and Wolfe Research's Stephanie Roth on market sell-offDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; David Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist; Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief economist; and Steve Liesman join 'CNBC's Special' to discuss what Friday's weak job reports suggest, their expectation from the Fed, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Jefferies, David Zervos, Wolfe Research's Stephanie Roth, David Kelly, Stephanie Roth, Wolfe, Steve Liesman Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Jefferies, Wolfe Research
Investors may way to consider buying the dip in Amazon , according to some Wall Street analysts. A 'bright spot' in AWS Despite Thursday's disappointing results, many Wall Street analysts are finding the positive in the company's Amazon Web Services division. Many expect this business to continue gaining steam, with Susquehanna Financial Group's Shyam Patil referring to this acceleration as a "bright spot" in the results. Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney referred to accelerating AWS growth as one of "three fundamental catalysts" for the stock. Bank of America's Justin Post named the stock the firm's top large cap picks, citing the AWS acceleration and opportunity within artificial intelligence.
Persons: Deutsche Bank's Lee Horowitz, Deutsche Bank's Horowitz, Mark Shmulik, Shyam Patil, Patil, Morgan Stanley's Brian Nowak, Evercore, Mark Mahaney, Bank of America's Justin Post, We're, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth Organizations: Deutsche, Wall, Web Services, Susquehanna, Bank of America's
Morgan Stanley on Friday told its army of financial advisors that it will soon allow them to offer bitcoin ETFs to some clients, a first among major Wall Street banks, CNBC has learned. The firm's 15,000 or so financial advisors can solicit eligible clients to purchase shares of two exchange-traded bitcoin funds starting Wednesday, according to people with knowledge of the policy. Those funds are BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund, the people said. The move from Morgan Stanley, one of the world's largest wealth management firms, is the latest sign of the adoption of bitcoin by mainstream finance. In January, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved applications for 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, heralding the arrival of an investment vehicle for bitcoin that is easier to access, cheaper to own and more readily traded.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Fidelity's, Jamie Dimon, Warren Buffett, it's, Goldman Sachs, Wells, spokespeople Organizations: CNBC, Bitcoin, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, JPMorgan Chase, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, Bank of America
Stocks sold off Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. The 10-year Treasury yield broke below 4% for the first time since February in a sign that more investors were seeking safe-haven assets. That weak data comes a day after the Fed chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades. “The economic data keep rolling on in the direction of a downturn, if not recession, this morning,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, a financial market research company. The S&P 500 is still up about 14% for the year, coming off its eighth-positive month in the last nine in July.
Persons: Stocks, , Dow, Russell, Jerome Powell, , Chris Rupkey, JPMorgan Chase, Meta Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Treasury, JPMorgan, Boeing, Meta, Nvidia Locations: U.S
There was a perverse view this year that bad economic news was actually good news for the stock market, as the heat coming off the economy would give the Federal Reserve the greenlight to cut interest rates. This made some sense with inflation for the first time in a while becoming the primary market bogeyman over a slowing economy. Announced layoffs last month were the highest for any July in more than two decades, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported. Investors got what they thought they wanted, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking below 4% for the first time since February. Even tech stocks found themselves in the red as they too, may be hurt more by a slowing economy, than their valuations are boosted by lower rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, Adam Crisafulli, Dow Jones, Yun Li, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management, Investors, Dow Jones, Dow, JPMorgan Chase, Caterpillar, Vital Knowledge Locations: U.S
Apple CEO Tim Cook attends the annual developer conference event at the company's headquarters in Cupertino, California, U.S., June 10, 2024. Apple's third quarter, which ends in June, is traditionally the company's slowest quarter of the year by sales. This year, the "main event" won't be Apple's earnings, wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long, it's what the company says about the September quarter, which is nearly one-third over. Apple revealed Apple Intelligence in June, and the first preview version of some features was released earlier this week. JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee expects Apple to reassure investors that the coming iPhone replacement cycle will include better-than-expected revenue, thanks to AI.
Persons: Tim Cook, Tim Long, Apple doesn't, Long, Raymond James, Srini Pajjuri, Samik Chatterjee, Chatterjee, Apple, Wamsi Mohan, Atif Malik Organizations: Apple, Barclays, Apple Intelligence, Nvidia, JPMorgan, Services, Bank of America Securities, Huawei, IDC, Citi Locations: Cupertino , California, U.S, China
The U.K. stock market is likely to rise over the course of 12 months, if the Bank of England cuts interest rates on Thursday and history repeats itself, according to a CNBC Pro analysis. Economists say the forecasts for whether the U.K. central bank will either reduce or hold rates are a close call. A decision to lower interest rates — which sit at at 5.25% currently — would mark the first time monetary police has been eased in Britain since the hiking cycle began in December 2021. The analysis found that, on three occasions the index had risen more than 20% on average within a year after an interest rate cut. For instance, the domestically focused index of 250 stocks rose by 17% across three months after the Bank of England cut rates in 1998.
Persons: Agne Stengeryte, BoE, Nora Szentivanyi Organizations: Bank of England, CNBC, CNBC Pro, Bank of, Bank, America's, Barclays Locations: Britain, Bank of England
iPhone sales are expected to reach $38.64 billion and decline more than 2% year over year as the company grapples with a stretch of stagnant growth. Long also echoed concerns the new iPhone won't be enough to fuel a "meaningful" upgrade cycle to support the premium. AI-fueled upgrade cycle Apple's September quarter is expected to include about a week of new iPhone sales. Wall Street will also keep a close watch on China sales following an 8% decline during the second quarter. "While Greater China sales remain sluggish, mainland China iPhone sales have been stronger than expected and we are encouraged by iPhone demand picking up in emerging markets," said Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri.
Persons: ISI's Amit Daryanani, Tim Long, Long, iPhones bottoming, Evercore, bode, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, tailwinds, JPMorgan's Samik Chatterjee, Baird's William Power, Raymond James, Srini Pajjuri Organizations: Apple Intelligence, Barclays, Apple, Verizon, Huawei Locations: China
"While company reported 2Q results ahead of guidance on higher take-rate, weaker 3Q guidance and removal of FY GMS outlook suggest no near-term visibility," the analyst wrote. Etsy stock is 20% lower on the year but has increased 16% since July 8. Positively, AmEx did see slightly better [small or midsize enterprise] spend in Q2'24," wrote analyst Donald Fandetti. Bank of America lifted its price target to $563 from $555, while Citi increased its target to $580 from $555. Its price target of $220, up from $175, implies upside of 23% from Wednesday's close.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Robinson, Brian, Ossenback, — Lisa Kailai Han, Oppenheimer, Jason Helfstein, Etsy's, Etsy, Helfstein, he's, Lisa Kailai Han, Wells, David Lantz, Lantz, Carvana, Raymond James, Brian Vaccaro, Vaccaro, AmEx, Donald Fandetti, Fandetti, Goldman Sachs, Ross Sandler, Andrew Percoco, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, GE, JPMorgan, Carvana, TAM, Management, American Express, America Express, Meta, Wall Street, Goldman, Citi, Barclays, Bank of America, Google, GE Vernova, General Electric Locations: C.H, Etsy, Wingstop, Wells Fargo, Q2'24, 2H24, Wednesday's
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