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"If this tax encourages companies to raise their dividends instead of buying back shares, all in all, it's not a bad thing." Other topics will be watched by investors, particularly remarks on China, a key area of interest for investors. BUYBACKS & BILLIONAIRESCorporate stock buybacks, where public companies buy back their own shares, thereby juicing the price of the shares, as a way to return cash to shareholders, have grabbed headlines this year. S&P 500 companies' stock buybacks are expected to total $220 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022, with 2023 set to be the first fiscal year with over $1 trillion in buybacks, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. Biden is also expected to call for another narrow tax increase: a "billionaire minimum tax" aimed at taxing the unrealized capital gains from assets such as stocks, bonds, or privately held companies of high-net-worth individuals.

Among these are equities’ positive January performance, a "golden cross" chart pattern on the S&P 500 and more stocks making new highs rather than new lows. Such signals are far from the only indicators market participants use to make investment decisions, and they are not foolproof. JANUARY JUMPThe S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, driven in part by hopes that the Fed will be able to contain surging inflation without badly damaging the economy. GOLDEN CROSSMeanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross. However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining - as it is now - the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.

Faced with a shortage of US dollars, Pakistan only has enough foreign currency in its reserves to pay for three weeks of imports. Long lines are forming at gas stations as prices swing wildly in the country of 220 million. Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, recently dropped to new lows against the US dollar after authorities eased currency controls to meet one of the IMF’s lending conditions. The country has been spending more on trade than it has brought in, running down its stock of foreign currency and weighing on the rupee’s value. Pakistan's usually bustling ports, like this one in Karachi, have ground to a halt as the country grapples with a severe shortage of foreign currency.

☆ Analysis: Hawkish Fed could hobble volatility funds’ stock buying spree
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500’s (.SPX) 6.2% surge in January has been accompanied by a drop in measures of volatility across the board. The drop in market gyrations has triggered a buy-signal for certain computer-driven strategies including volatility control funds, risk parity funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). Volatility control funds have raised their equity allocation to a nine-month high of 57.7%, strategists at Deutsche Bank wrote on Friday. Grinacoff, of BNP Paribas, estimates volatility control funds have assets of about $275 billion, while CTAs, not all of which have a volatility control strategy, as a group have $800 billion allocated across strategies. "Market volatility measured by VIX remains stuck above the 18 level, which is its long-term average.

☆ Dollar holds gains after U.S. data; traders eye Fed next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoNEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The dollar clung to modest gains against the euro on Friday after data showed falling U.S. consumer spending and cooling inflation, and as investors awaited a slew of central bank meetings next week. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, dropped 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for November was revised lower to show spending slipping 0.1% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. Data showed consumer price inflation in Japan's capital accelerated to a nearly 42-year peak this month, piling pressure on the BOJ to step away from stimulus. Attention now turns to a slew of central bank policy decisions, with the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England (BoE) all due to make rate decisions next week as they judge what policy adjustments may be required in their battle with rampant inflation against a tough global economic backdrop.

☆ Dollar eases as traders look to central banks for cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against the euro on Wednesday, but its losses were capped as traders were hesitant to make any big bets ahead of next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. "Trading ranges remain remarkably compressed ahead of next week's central bank meetings," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January. In contrast, U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh straight month in January, data showed on Tuesday, though the downturn moderated across manufacturing and services for the first time since September. The dollar was down 0.42% against the yen , at 129.615 yen per dollar, having hit a near eight-month low of 127.215 on Jan. 16.

☆ Dollar edges down as traders look to central banks for cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro on Wednesday in subdued trading as investors were hesitant to make any big bets ahead of next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. "Trading ranges remain remarkably compressed ahead of next week's central bank meetings," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January. Expectations of further rate increases by the European Central Bank have also supported the euro. In contrast, U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh-straight month in January, data showed on Tuesday, though the downturn moderated across manufacturing and services for the first time since September.

The Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) said late on Tuesday it was lifting the cap on the currency in the interest of the country. Before the cap on the rupee was removed, markets eyed three different rates to assess its value -- the state bank's official rate, the one assessed by the foreign exchange companies and the black market rate. He said the removal of the cap would curb the black market. "The black market rate is still sticky in the range of 260-270. The decision of exchange companies has not had any impact as such," said Fahad Rauf, Head of Research at Ismail Iqbal Securities.

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower against the euro on Monday, as the common currency found support from European Central Bank officials' comments signalling additional jumbo interest rate rises in Europe. The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , to trade at its highest level since April last year, before paring gains to trade up 0.1 % at $1.0865. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. "Really what's driving things is central bank policy divergence," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. So when you weigh the outlook for central bank policy, it depicts the dollar at a disadvantage, given market bets on the Fed moving more slowly than its counterparts abroad," Manimbo said.

☆ Thousands of Indonesian workers protest against president's job decree
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Constitutional Court had ruled the 2020 Jobs Creation Law was flawed, saying there had been insufficient public consultation before the law was passed. "Job creation should be in line with workers' welfare improvement, but this decree runs counter to it. Protesters held a banner saying "Say no to outsourcing", while others had signs reading, "Refuse job creation emergency decree because there is no emergency situation". "We don't want the state to become only an agent for dirty entrepreneurs to weaken workers' welfare," Said told reporters. The Jobs Creation Law, revising more than 70 other laws, had been welcomed by foreign investors for cutting red tape.

They projected their key policy rate would top out at between 5.00% and 5.25% this year, up from a current 4.25%-4.50% rate. Market pricing indicates investors remain wedded to a more dovish view, with the policy rate peaking below 5% around mid-June before falling in the second half of the year. Rieder believes policymakers will raise rates by 25 basis points at the next two meetings, with further 25 basis point increases possible, depending on data. Investors in short-term options had priced in a much sharper move of about 2% going into Thursday's CPI print, according to data from market maker Optiver. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO's North American economist, believes the Fed is likely to raise rates just two more times this year before pausing.

"It's not just me and my children, future generations from our community in Jammu and Kashmir will vote for the BJP." A BJP victory in the disputed region could consolidate India's claim over the territory on the global stage. "We have taken a pledge to cross 50-plus seats to form the next government with a thumping majority," the BJP's president for Jammu and Kashmir, Ravinder Raina, told Reuters. Jammu has about 5.3 million inhabitants, 62% of whom are Hindu while Kashmir Valley has 6.7 million, 97% of them Muslim, according to a 2011 census. Previously unreported official records show just over 5.3 million certificates had been issued as of September.

☆ Bed Bath & Beyond surges for third day in meme-stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A person exits a Bed Bath & Beyond store in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 29, 2022. Among the top three companies traded on Fidelity's retail platform, Bed Bath & Beyond jumped 69% during the session and then another 20% after the bell. On Tuesday, Bed Bath & Beyond said it would lay off more employees to cut costs after reporting a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss. The rise and fall of Bed Bath & BeyondShort interest in Bed Bath & Beyond is $82.7 million, or 52.07% of its free float, analytics firm S3 Partners said in a research note. Bed Bath & Beyond's options volume was running nine times what is typical, based on recent trading, according to Trade Alert data.

☆ Analysis: With banks' results on tap, options traders prepare for volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brian SnyderNEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Options traders are bracing for volatility in U.S. bank shares days ahead of an earnings season many believe will bring lower profits and reflect worries over an expected recession. The trade would be profitable if the ETF’s shares slipped below $33 by mid-February, a 6% decline from current levels. The S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) fell 21.6% last year, compared to a compared to a 19.4% decline for the S&P 500 as a whole. Options on big bank stocks, on average, are pricing the largest post-earnings moves in the last two years, an analysis by Susquehanna International Group showed. "The trading bias in the options heading into big bank earnings has been buying volatility and protecting positions," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.

☆ Tesla short sellers pile on pressure after most profitable trade in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Fresh off their most profitable year ever, short sellers targeting Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) stock are heaping more pressure on the electric vehicle maker led by Elon Musk. Tesla short interest stands at $8.76 billion, or nearly 3% of the share float, down from $14 billion a month ago, a decline reflecting the steep drop in Tesla's stock price. "As the stock price hits a floor or expected value for short sellers, they will start trading positions to realize their profits. In 2022, Tesla was the most profitable short trade in the U.S. market, earning $15.85 billion in paper profits for investors, according to S3 data. That was the best year ever for Tesla short sellers, but they have recouped only about a quarter of the $60 billion in estimated losses from 2010 to 2021.

☆ Inflation, recession and earnings among factors to drive U.S. stocks in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down nearly 20% year-to-date with only a few trading days left in 2022, on pace for its biggest calendar-year drop since 2008. S&P 500 timeline in 2022Inflation, and the Fed's degree of aggressiveness in trying to contain it, will likely remain a critical factor driving equity performance as 2023 gets under way. Recessions tend to hit stocks hard, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two, according to Truist Advisory Services. Investors are also concerned that corporate earnings estimates may not have fully factored in a potential slowdown, leaving more downside for stocks. Consensus analyst estimates project S&P 500 earnings to rise 4.4% in 2023, according to Refinitiv IBES.

☆ Yen retreats after BOJ policy tweak sparked surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ decided to change its "yield curve control" policy on Tuesday even as it kept broad policy settings unchanged. It is letting 10-year yields move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25-basis-point band. On Wednesday, the dollar was 0.4% higher against the yen , having plunged 3.8% in the previous session, its largest one-day drop against the Japanese currency in 24 years. The BOJ, long preoccupied with reviving price growth to avert a risk of deflation, has been an outlier among central banks this year. It has kept interest rates negative while other central banks have hiked hard to tame inflation and bolster domestic currencies against the U.S. dollar.

☆ Yen eases after BOJ policy tweak sparked surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Dec 21 (Reuters) - The yen eased in a choppy session on Wednesday, ceding some of the ground gained the previous day when a surprise policy tweak by the Bank of Japan lifted the Japanese currency by 4% against the dollar. The BOJ decided to change its "yield curve control" policy on Tuesday even as it kept broad policy settings unchanged. It is letting 10-year yields move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25 basis point band. On Wednesday, the dollar was 0.2% higher against the yen , having plunged 3.8% in the previous session, its largest one day drop against the Japanese currency in 24 years. I don't think we're going to 150 (yen) anytime soon," Chandler said.

☆ Dollar slips vs euro on upbeat German business morale data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationNEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro as upbeat German business morale data supported the common currency, while a modest improvement in investors' appetite for riskier currencies weighed on the safe-haven dollar. German business morale rose more than expected in December as the outlook for Europe's largest economy improved despite the energy crisis and high inflation, a survey showed on Monday. The euro rose 0.2 % to $ 1.06085 , not far from the six-month high of $1.0737 touched last week. "I think the dollar is generally softer on slightly higher risk-on trading," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Monex USA.

☆ ‘Christmas Mubarak’: For many South Asian Americans, the holiday is a cultural celebration
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Zoya Wazir | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +8 min

For the Hazrati family, Christmas Day typically includes a lit-up tree, gifts and a dal lunch. While 69% of Americans identify as Christian, as much as 93% of Americans reported celebrating Christmas as of 2019. In an America that celebrates both a religious and secular Christmas, South Asian Americans from other faiths are finding ways to make the holiday their own. Despite Iqbal’s festive decor, her family still abstained from celebrating on Christmas Day because it wasn’t part of their religious traditions. But for some South Asian Americans, celebrating a holiday that isn’t part of their religious identity can feel disingenuous, especially when their own faith is filled with rich celebrations.

The fed funds rate currently stands in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Plenty of investors believe the Fed will stick to its guns, even if the economy wobbles. The Fed's economic projections showed rates dropping to 4.1% in 2024, higher than estimated three months ago. She is expecting the gyrations that rocked bonds this year to continue, driven in part by investors second-guessing the Fed's commitment to keeping monetary policy tight. "We have a generation of traders that has never seen the Fed not bail it out when push comes to shove."

☆ U.S. dollar likely to remain strong in 2023 amid recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Dec 8 (Reuters) - A breathtaking surge in the U.S. dollar trampled foreign currencies, gouged corporate profits and gave investors one of the year’s few winning trades. Investors flocked to the dollar — a popular destination during uncertain times — to shelter from market volatility spurred by surging global inflation, spiking energy prices and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A stronger dollar makes U.S. exporters' products less competitive abroad while hurting U.S. multinationals that need to exchange their earnings into dollars. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won/File PhotoNike (NKE.N), IBM (IBM.N) and Meta Platforms (META.O) were among the broad range of companies that warned of a hit from a stronger dollar this year. Nearly 80% of strategists polled by Reuters said there was little scope for dollar upside based on monetary policy.

☆ Recession worries could support dollar after monstrous 2022 rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A stronger dollar makes U.S. exporters' products less competitive abroad while hurting U.S. multinationals that need to exchange their earnings into dollars. Nike (NKE.N), IBM (IBM.N) and Meta Platforms (META.O) were among the broad range of companies that warned of a hit from a stronger dollar this year. The dollar's rally shaved about 8% from S&P earnings in 2022, according to Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Whether the dollar's decline continues may depend on the Fed's ability to contain inflation enough to eventually ease monetary policy. Nearly 80% of strategists polled by Reuters said there was little scope for dollar upside based on monetary policy.

☆ Analysis: Investors look to emerging markets as planets align for end of dollar bull market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - As the U.S. dollar tumbles from multi-decade highs, some investors are betting emerging market currencies will be big winners from a sustained reversal in the greenback. Signs of a broader turn in dollar sentiment are visible in the buck’s 8% decline against a basket of developed market currencies from its September highs. "The planets are lining up for a dollar bear market," said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US. Emerging market currencies have outperformed their developed market counterparts this year, with MSCI's index of emerging market currencies down 5% year-to-date, while the dollar's G10 peers have lost nearly twice as much. Conversely, tightening by central banks around the world also risks sparking a global recession, a scenario some believe could hurt emerging market currencies and help the dollar.

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