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Russia's economy is predicted to grow by 3.2% in 2024, outpacing all advanced economies, including the US, the IMF said. Despite the war, high investment and robust private consumption have driven Russia's economy forward. The IMF expects the momentum to fade in 2025, with Russia growing at a rate of 1.8%. AdvertisementRussia's economy is expected to grow significantly faster than major developed economies this year, including the US, according to the International Monetary Fund. The country's war-time economy is forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2024, largely outpacing expected growth for other advanced economies including the US (2.7%), Germany (0.2%), the UK (0.5%), and Japan (0.9%), IMF said in a report published on Tuesday.
Persons: Organizations: IMF, Service, International Monetary Fund, Business Locations: Russia, Germany, Japan
Trade is being weaponized, EU's Dombrovskis says
  + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrade is being weaponized, EU's Dombrovskis saysEU's Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis discusses global trade at the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings.
Persons: EU's Dombrovskis, Trade Valdis Dombrovskis Organizations: Trade, International Monetary
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesRussia's economy is expected to grow faster than all advanced economies this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. The prediction will be galling for Western nations which have sought to economically isolate and punish Russia for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In short, Russia has adapted to a "new normal" as its economy has been put on a war footing. The Washington-based IMF includes the U.S., U.K., the euro area's largest economies, Canada and Japan as advanced economies. "If you look at Russia, today, production goes up, [for the] military, [and] consumption goes down.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Uralvagonzavod, Ramil Sitdikov, Kristalina Georgieva, CNBC's Dan Murphy, Georgieva, Elvira Nabiullina, Andrey Rudakov Organizations: Evraz Consolidated, Siberian Metallurgical, Bloomberg, Getty, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Sputnik, Afp, IMF, TU, CNBC, World Governments, Bank of Russia, Duma Locations: Evraz Consolidated West, Novokuznetsk, Russia, Germany, France, Ukraine, India, China, Russian, Urals, Nizhny Tagil, Washington, Canada, Japan, Europe, Asia, Kazan, Dubai, Soviet Union, Russia's
High corporate valuations could pose a significant risk to financial stability as market optimism becomes untethered from fundamentals, the IMF's director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department said Tuesday. Financial markets have been on a tear for much of this year, buoyed by falling inflation and hopes of forthcoming interest rate cuts. But that "optimism" has stretched company valuations to a point where that could become vulnerable to an economic shock, Tobias Adrian said. "We do worry in some segments where valuations have become quite stretched," Adrian told CNBC's Karen Tso Tuesday. Adrian, who was speaking on the side lines of the IMF's Spring Meeting in Washington, said that credit markets were a particular area of concern.
Persons: Tobias Adrian, Adrian, Karen Tso Organizations: Monetary, Capital Markets, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group, Washington DC, Capital Markets Department, Financial Locations: Washington, United States
The tariffs Mr. Biden will propose raising on Wednesday were initially imposed by Mr. Trump when he was president. Mr. Biden’s stop in Pittsburgh is part of a three-day swing through Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state that he narrowly won in 2020 and has visited more than any other. The president’s campaign is hoping to mobilize support from organized labor, a traditionally Democratic constituency from which Mr. Trump has pulled some support. On Tuesday, Mr. Biden spoke at the local union of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners in Scranton, Pa., his hometown. “Donald Trump looks at the world differently than you and me,” Mr. Biden said in a speech that signaled his campaign’s intention to make the 2024 election a referendum on Mr. Trump.
Persons: Biden, Katherine Tai, Mr, ” Lael Brainard, Janet L, Yellen, , Lloyd J, Austin III, Biden’s, Donald J, ” Mr, Trump, “ Donald Trump, ” Alan Rappeport, Michael D, Shear Organizations: United Steelworkers Union, U.S, Economic Council, International Monetary Fund, Trump, CNBC, Mr, Democratic, United Brotherhood of Carpenters Locations: China, Pittsburgh, U.S, Mexico, America, Beijing, United States, Biden’s, Japan, Philippines, South China, Pennsylvania, Joiners, Scranton, Pa, Mar
They’re playing to win every day staples like rice, oil, sugar, lentils and other items that soaring inflation has put beyond their reach. Courtesy Omar Sunny Somrat/SS Food ChallengeThe combination of colorful games and the feel-good factor of nobody going home empty-handed has given Somrat a genuine hit. Courtesy Omar Sunny Somrat/SS Food ChallengeBy 2021, he began organizing contests for village kids competing in games and winning prizes like home appliances. A year later, though, he stumbled onto the winning formula when food prices soared and the Bangladeshi currency, the taka, depreciated in value against the US dollar. Between 2022 and 2023, food prices in Bangladesh jumped by 9%, the highest average rate in 12 years, according to the country’s Bureau of Statistics.
Persons: Mohammad Abdur Rouf, can’t, I’d, Omar Sunny Somrat Abdur —, , Omar Sunny Somrat, They’re, “ It’s, ” Somrat, Somrat, , taka, Munir Uz Zaman, Ruchir Desai, Desai, Asma Khatun Organizations: CNN, SS, SS Food, Bank, YouTube, Facebook, greenback, country’s, Statistics, Getty, Asia Frontier Investments, International Monetary Fund Locations: Chapra, Bangladesh, Ukraine, Banwarinagar, Pabna, Purandarpur, Pabna District, Dhaka, AFP
"When we do the risk assessment around that baseline, the chances that we would have something like a global recession is fairly minimal. The Washington DC-based institute this week nudged its global growth outlook slightly higher to 3.2% in 2024 and projects the same rate in 2025. One of the International Monetary Fund's top economists signals little risk of a global recession, despite the ongoing rumblings of geopolitical uncertainty. That has all combined with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which had its biggest wider impact on energy prices in Europe in 2022. And that's one of the big risks that we do see, the implications that could have for oil prices could be substantial.
Persons: Gourinchas, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Karen Tso, Gita Gopinath, we're Organizations: U.S, IMF, Washington DC, International Monetary, Palestinian, Hamas, CNBC Locations: Europe, New York, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Gaza, Red, Yemeni, Russia, Ukraine, Asia, Israel, Iran
Tensions in the Middle East pose the biggest threat to a prospective interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, according to ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann. "At this stage, I think the biggest threat is geopolitics, because we have seen what's happened in the Middle East," Austrian central bank governor Holzmann told CNBC's Karen Tso on Wednesday. Holzmann singled out ramifications for energy prices as the single most important factor in terms of Europe's fight to tame inflation. "As summer approaches we can start reducing the level of restriction in monetary policy, provided that inflation continues to fall as projected." He recently told Reuters that the ECB could moderate rates in June, indicating a growing consensus for a near-term move.
Persons: Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Karen Tso, policymaker Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary, Bank of, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Reuters Locations: Austrian, Hormuz, Iran, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Bank of Finland, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEU economics chief says the region needs a 'more assertive' industrial policy and competitivenessPaolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy, European Commission joins CNBC's Karen Tso on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings.
Persons: Paolo Gentiloni, Karen Tso Organizations: EU, Economy, Commission, International Monetary
Treasury Department plans to impose Iran sanctions correction
  + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
This article has been updated to correct that Yellen's comments were from remarks ahead of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank's Spring Meetings this week.
Organizations: International Monetary Fund
The global economy is approaching a soft landing after several years of geopolitical and economic turmoil, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. But it warned that risks remain, including stubborn inflation, the threat of escalating global conflicts and rising protectionism. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the I.M.F. projected global output to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024, unchanged from 2023. The forecasts came as policymakers from around the world began arriving in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: Ukraine, Washington
The IMF upgraded Tuesday its forecast for US economic growth to 2.7% this year — 0.6 percentage points higher than it predicted as recently as January. The Washington-based IMF expects the 20 countries that use the euro to grow just 0.8% this year, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points from its January forecast. The global economy, meanwhile, is seen expanding by 3.2%, 0.1 percentage points more than predicted in January. China’s economy, the second-largest in the world, is forecast to grow 4.6%, while India is expected to notch growth of 6.8%. In contrast to the United States, “there is little evidence of overheating” in the euro area, according to Gourinchas.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, , Gourinchas, it’s, , ” Gourinchas, Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, UBS, European Central Bank, Reuters Locations: United States, Washington, China’s, India, Europe, China
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast, saying the economy had proven "surprisingly resilient" despite inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts. The IMF now expects global growth of 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast, and in line with the growth projection for 2023. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the findings suggest the global economy is heading for a "soft landing," following a string of economic crises, and that the risks to the outlook were now broadly balanced. "Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose," he said in a blog post. But dimmer prospects in China and other large emerging market economies could weigh on global trade partners, the report said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, U.S Locations: Nanjing, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's prudent for the Fed to 'wait and see' before cutting rates, says IMF's Gita GopinathGita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, tells CNBC's Karen Tso that it makes sense for the Federal Reserve to "wait and see" before starting to cut rates given the strength of the U.S. economy and stronger-than-expected inflation.
Persons: Gita Gopinath, Karen Tso Organizations: Fed, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Those what-ifs could further roil gas and oil prices. But if there’s further conflict, he said, “you’d see a much higher premium for oil prices. If there’s a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, they said, oil prices should come down over the next few weeks. But if there’s an escalation in conflict, they expect that oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel, they wrote in a note Monday. Retail sales rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, a slower pace than February’s upwardly revised 0.9% gain, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Persons: New York CNN —, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Jerome Powell, We’ll, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Dave Sekera, Israel doesn’t, , , Moody’s, there’s, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean, Sam Salehpour, Read, Bryan Mena, Claire Tassin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank, Bank of Canada, Seven, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Morningstar, Nvidia, AMD, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Commerce Department, Morning, Amazon Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, China, United States, Washington ,, Iran, Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen attends a press conference at US Ambassador's residence in Beijing on April 8, 2024. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is preparing new sanctions on Iran after the country launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel over the weekend. "The attack by Iran and its proxies underscores the importance of Treasury's work to use our economic tools to counter Iran's malign activity." Israel said it intercepted 99% of the more than 300 projectiles from Iran. The U.S. has imposed hundreds of sanctions on Iran and its proxies in recent years for their connections to terrorism and for the country's missile program.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen Organizations: US, Treasury, International Monetary Fund, country's Locations: Beijing, Iran, Israel, Iranian, Syria, The U.S, Red
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA spillover of Middle East tensions is a big geopolitical risk, says IMF's Gita GopinathSpeaking to CNBC's Karen Tso at the International Monetary Fund's Spring Meetings, Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, discusses the major geopolitical risks facing markets and the world.
Persons: Gopinath, Karen Tso, Gita Gopinath Organizations: International
The U.S. government is considering laws to help society adapt to the introduction of artificial intelligence. Economists have worried for years that artificial intelligence could sink job prospects for white-collar workers, similar to the effects globalization has had on blue-collar workers in the past. In 2023, lawmakers in the New York State Assembly put forward a measure to limit the expected impact of tech-driven layoffs with robot taxes. Many economists have said that robot taxes, if used at all, should be set at a relatively low level. Watch the video above to learn more about the U.S. government's plan to regulate artificial intelligence.
Persons: Sebastian Siemiatkowski, Sora, Sam Altman, Erik Brynjolfsson, Brynjolfsson Organizations: CNBC, Force, European Union, Stanford Institute for, International Monetary Fund, New York State, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Locations: U.S, Brussels, United States
That idea of guaranteed income is receiving renewed interest as AI becomes an increasing threat to Americans’ livelihoods. As more Americans’ jobs are increasingly at risk due to the threat of AI, Tubbs and other proponents of guaranteed income say this could be one solution to help provide a safety net and cushion the expected blow AI will have on the labor market. “Then, when we have to deal with that job displacement, we’re better positioned to do so.”Silicon Valley’s infatuation with guaranteed incomeThe idea of a guaranteed income is not new. AFP/Getty ImagesDecades after King’s death, the idea of guaranteed income went on to see a resurgence of support emanating out of Silicon Valley. Other tech industry tycoons, including Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, have also thrown immense financial support behind guaranteed income programs.
Persons: CNN — Michael Tubbs, Tubbs, , , ” Michael Tubbs, Nick Otto, ” Tubbs, Nathan Frandino, Let’s, Martin Luther King, Jr, I’m, ” King, King, Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman —, Musk, Rishi Sunak, Zuckerberg, ” Altman, Altman, Sam Altman, Justin Sullivan, Elizabeth Rhodes, Jack Dorsey, Dorsey, Ken Paxton, ” Paxton, overreach, ‘ It’s, ’ Tomas Vargas Jr, Vargas, I’ve, that’s, ” Tomas Vargas Jr, Tomas Vargas Jr, ” Vargas Organizations: CNN, Getty, Global, Monetary Fund, Reuters, Stockton, Civil Rights, Washington DC, Elon, , UK, Harvard, Facebook, YCombinator, Twitter, UPS Locations: Stockton , California, Silicon Valley, Big, America, Stockton, AFP, San Joaquin, U.S, Washington, Alaska, YCombinator, San Francisco , California, United States, Texas, Harris, Harris County
The scale of the fraud was said to be equivalent to roughly 3% of Vietnam’s economy. Though widely considered ceremonial, the presidency is one of the top three positions in Vietnam’s political hierarchy after the CPV’s Secretary General, currently Nguyen Phu Trong. In fact, the International Monetary Fund expects Vietnam’s economy to grow by 5.8% this year, compared to 4.6% for China. Their fate remains unclear, given the highly secretive nature of Vietnam’s political system. But Vietnamese political experts said a permanent appointment would not end the instability.
Persons: Truong My Lan, Van Thinh, siphoned, , Eric Chu, Vietnam’s, Vo Van, Trong, Thuong, Vo Van Thuong, Richard A, Brooks, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Pham Binh, Le Hong Hiep, Yusof, ” Hiep, , Thu, General Trong, Xi Jinping, ” Zachary Abuza, Salt Bae, Lam, ” Abuza, Nguyen Phu Trong, Evelyn Hockstein, Abuza, Bui Thanh Soh, ” Soh, Vo, Xuan, Thuong’s, Le Hong Organizations: CNN, Van Thinh Phat Holdings Group, Stock Commercial Bank, Reuters, SCB, Express, Communist Party, Institute, Crisis Group, National War College, Vietnamese Communist Party, Public Security, Vietnam, International Monetary Fund, Companies, Apple, Intel, Vietnam's Communist Party General, Yusof, Brookings Institution, , Crisis Locations: Vietnam, Saigon, People’s, Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong, Duc, Singapore, Asia, China, Washington, , London, Turkish, Hanoi, Bangkok
Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico. Trump’s proposals, if enacted, could easily set off a new trade war with China and potentially other nations, too. Some economists are warning Trump’s trade agenda and the ensuing retaliation from trading partners would hurt the US economy by worsening inflation, killing jobs, depressing growth and spooking investors. It’s hard to say exactly because there is a lot of uncertainty over how much of Trump’s proposed agenda would actually be enacted. That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately consumers.
Persons: he’s, Donald Trump, Trump, ” Alex Durante, Trump’s, , Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, Janet Yellen, Joe Biden’s, Karoline Leavitt, ” “, ” Leavitt, , Biden, “ Donald Trump, ” Biden, James Singer, Biden’s, That’s, Durante, Joe Brusuelas, don’t, ” Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Liz, Maury Obstfeld, Obstfeld, Obama, ” Durante Organizations: New, New York CNN —, Tax Foundation, CNN, Trump, China, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, RSM, Target, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Monetary Fund, US International Trade Commission, , Obama Locations: New York, China, Mexico, Beijing, United States
The Federal Reserve should be able to start cutting interest rates by the end of 2024, according to Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund. "We remain on our projection that we would see, by the end of the year, the Fed being in a position to take some action in a direction of bringing interest rates down," Georgieva said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." Fed funds futures pricing data suggests that the first rate cut could come in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Georgieva said the Fed should continue following economic data, which will signal when it's appropriate to begin reducing the cost of borrowing money. Still, Georgieva warned that keeping interest rates elevated for longer than expected can create risks to financial stability for the rest of the world.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Dow Jones Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, U.S Locations: U.S, United States
Flag of China on dark blue background Da-kuk | E+ | Getty ImagesChina will remain the largest growth engine for the world economy in spite of its slowdown, the Asian Development Bank said. ADB forecasts China to post annual GDP growth of 4.8% in 2024, lower than the government's target of "around 5%." watch nowEven with slower growth, ADB data estimated China will account for 46% of growth in developing Asia in 2024-2025. China currently accounts for 18% and 48% of global and Asian GDP, respectively, based on purchasing power parities exchange rates, a metric used by the ADB, World Bank and International Monetary Fund. ADB expects the country's growth to be the highest in the region, at 7% in 2024 and 7.2% in 2025.
Persons: Albert Park, … it's Organizations: Getty, Asian Development Bank, ADB, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, CNBC Locations: China, Asia, India
Almost 80% of Singaporeans are optimistic about the economy, according to SurveyMonkey's 2024 poll. Damircudic | E+ | Getty ImagesMajority of the residents in Singapore are bullish about where the economy is headed and confident that the government will be able to support them during their retirement. The results in Singapore buck the global trend, where less than half the adults polled are positive about where their economy is going. The survey gathered results from over 4,300 adults living across Australia, France, Germany, Mexico, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States between March 8 and 25. That's despite predictions by the International Monetary Fund that the global economy is approaching a "soft landing" and that inflation is slowly moderating.
Persons: SurveyMonkey, Eric Johnson, joblessness Organizations: Getty, CNBC, International Financial Security, International Monetary Fund, United Locations: Singapore, Mexico, U.S, Australia, Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, States
The aerial view shows residential buildings under construction in Hangzhou, China on March 15, 2024. Ratings agency Fitch revised its outlook on China's sovereign credit rating to negative on Tuesday, citing risks to public finances as the economy faced increasing uncertainty in its shift to new growth models. Fitch forecast the general government deficit would rise to 7.1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 from 5.8% in 2023, the highest since a reading of 8.6% in 2020, when Beijing's strict Covid curbs weighed heavily on the world's No. While it lowered its outlook, indicating a downgrade is possible over the medium term, the agency affirmed China's IDR rating at "A+." Fitch forecast China's economic growth would slow to 4.5% in 2024 from 5.2% last year, in contrast to Citi and the International Monetary Fund, which both revised up their China forecasts.
Persons: Fitch, China's Organizations: Citi, International Monetary Fund Locations: Hangzhou, China
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