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It was clear that the war could significantly damage the Kenyan economy, as the country is almost entirely dependent on imports for its conventional fuel supply. But the extent of the damage caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine to Kenya's economy is now clearer than ever. Kalya Kiptiony, investment analystFuel is Kenya's economic lifebloodAfter the start of the war, the price of fuel in Kenya rose, on average, 7.6% every month. Although Kenya gets most of its oil from the Gulf, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in fuel prices worldwide. In a report late last year, the UN described just how factors like drought, inflation, and fuel and food price rises are combining to undermine livelihoods in Kenya.
Persons: Lensa Omune, Kalya, Kalya Kiptiony Organizations: International Food Policy Research Institute, Central Bank, IMF, UN, Insider Studios, Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Kenya, Nairobi, East Africa, Africa, Europe
Before his stint as prime minister, the younger Sharif was known more as a good administrator than a politician, having served as chief minister thrice in the country's largest province, Punjab. The deal was signed after Sharif personally called on IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva last June. Although defence and key foreign policy decisions are largely influenced by the military, Sharif will have to juggle relations with the U.S. and China, both major allies. He started his political career as the chief minister of Punjab in 1997 with a signature "can-do" administrative style. As chief minister, the younger Sharif planned and executed a number of ambitious infrastructure mega-projects, including Pakistan's first modern mass transport system in Lahore.
Persons: Asif Shahzad, Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam, Sharif, Nawaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif's, Maryam, Imran Khan, Shehbaz Sharif, Khan, Shehbaz, Kristalina Georgieva, Tehmina Durrani, Ariba Shahid, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz, Monetary Fund, IMF, U.S Locations: Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam ISLAMABAD, Sharif, London, country's, Punjab, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, China, India, Iran, Afghanistan, Lahore, Panama, Karachi
"I don't think you can treat the world's second-largest economy as either an alternative investment or un-investable, that would be wide of the mark," Bilton said. Uncertainty around monetary policy and a shrinking labor force are further causes for concern, Bilton noted. Some analysts saw this as potential dovish policy shift from the PBOC, which has appeared reluctant to take measures that could boost the struggling economy. Financial bodies including the International Monetary Fund have called for further monetary policy reforms since then. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC this week that China had been advised to make use of more of its available fiscal and monetary policy space.
Persons: Raul Ariano, John Bilton, CNBC's, Bilton, Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, JPMorgan Asset Management, People's Bank of, International Monetary Fund, IMF, CNBC Locations: Yuyuan, Shanghai, China, People's Bank of China
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, at a press conference at the IMF Headquarters on April 14, 2023. DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the Russian economy is still facing significant head winds despite receiving a recent growth upgrade by the Washington-based institution. Russia's economy has proven to be surprisingly resilient amid waves of Western sanctions in the nearly two years since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva sees more trouble ahead for the country of roughly 145 million. "What it tells us is that this is a war economy in which the state — which let's remember, had a very sizeable buffer, built over many years of fiscal discipline — is investing in this war economy.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, CNBC's Dan Murphy, Georgieva, Vladimir Putin Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, United Arab Emirates, World Governments, Defense, Reuters Locations: DUBAI, United Arab, Russian, Washington, Ukraine, Dubai, Russia, Soviet Union
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUkraine needs $42 billion of funding to sustain the remarkable progress they have made, IMF saysKristalina Georgieva, managing director at the IMF, says Ukraine needs $42 billion funding this year to sustain the remarkable progress they have made.
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva Organizations: Ukraine, IMF Locations: Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Russian economy is in for very tough times, IMF's Kristalina Georgieva saysKristalina Georgieva, managing director at the IMF, says the Russian economy is in for very tough times, after President Vladimir Putin's recent attempt to justify the war in Ukraine.
Persons: IMF's Kristalina Georgieva, Kristalina Georgieva, Vladimir Putin's Organizations: IMF Locations: Russian, Ukraine
DUBAI (Reuters) - The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, said on Sunday she was confident about the economic outlook despite uncertainties because the global economy has remained resilient. In a speech at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, Georgieva said the IMF would publish a paper on Monday that shows phasing out explicit energy subsidies could save $336 billion in the Middle East, equivalent to the economies of Iraq and Libya combined. (Reporting by Maha El Dahan and Federico Maccioni; Writing by Rachna Uppal; Editing by William Mallard)War in Israel and Gaza View All 206 Images
Persons: Kristalina Georgieva, Georgieva, Maha El Dahan, Federico Maccioni, Rachna Uppal, William Mallard Organizations: Reuters, International Monetary Fund, World Governments Locations: DUBAI, Dubai, Iraq, Libya, Israel, Gaza
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on New Year's Eve that the nation's economy had grown "more resilient and dynamic this year." Meanwhile, famed hedge fund manager and founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Kyle Bass said the country's heavily indebted property market has triggered a wave of defaults among public developers. That's a problem, given China's real estate market can account for as much as a fifth of the nation's GDP. "This is just like the U.S. financial crisis on steroids," Bass said, referring to China's default-ridden property market. The Institute of International Finance said Beijing has the policy capacity to push China's economy toward its growth potential and stuck to its above consensus forecast for 2024 growth at 5%, in a recent blog post.
Persons: Eswar Prasad, Mohamed El, Xi Jinping, there's, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Kristalina Georgieva, Hayman, Hayman Capital Kyle Bass, Bass, isn't Organizations: Future Publishing, CSI, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Allianz, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, New York Times, Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Dallas, Hayman Capital, of International Finance Locations: Jiangsu, China, Nikkei Asia, U.S, Europe, tatters, Davos, Beijing
Anti-government protesters gather to demonstrate outside the president's office in Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Wednesday, July 13, 2022. Sri Lanka expects to implement a debt restructuring framework within the first six months of 2024, the country's president said on Wednesday, expressing confidence that the nation was recovering from its worst financial crisis in decades. Sri Lanka's economy is estimated by the World Bank to have contracted by 3.8% last year but is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2024. Sri Lanka's central bank has projected a more optimistic growth of 3% for this year. There are no short-term solutions," he said, adding that Sri Lanka's overall debt at the end of September was at $91 billion.
Persons: Ranil Wickremesinghe Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank Locations: Colombo, Sri Lanka, Sri Lanka's
Most pressing, however, is its real estate trouble, which the International Monetary Fund characterized as a historic bust matching levels only seen in the worst collapses of the last three decades. AdvertisementYears of overreliance on real estate as an engine of the economy has led to a buildup of risks, the researchers said. Now, Beijing must clean up distressed developers like Evergrande and Country Garden, support falling real estate prices, and figure out how to put the sector on a more sustainable path. The collapse has transpired at "a historically rapid pace only seen in the largest housing busts in cross-country experience in the last three decades," researchers said. "Large public subsidies in the previous decade helped millions of people move to newer housing from older buildings lacking modern amenities.
Persons: Henry Hoyle, Sonali Jain, Chandra, homebuyers Organizations: International Monetary, Business, Housing, IMF Locations: Beijing, China
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewChina is taking steps to support its economy and stock markets, but there are limits to what can be achieved, said economist Eswar Prasad. Stock markets in China and Hong Kong have accelerated losses into 2024 after shedding trillions of dollars since 2021. "The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the US is declining," Prasad added to Nikkei. This is because Trump is likely to ratchet up trade protectionism, causing fragmentation in the trade and financial sectors, Prasad told Nikkei.
Persons: , Eswar Prasad, Prasad, China hasn't, Trump, Prasad doesn't, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Cornell University, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, Business, Stock, Reuters Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Asia
Other economists say Russia is pumping the economy with one-time, unproductive investments that yield limited future benefit. 'NOT ALL GROWTH IS GOOD'The International Monetary Fund expects Russia's economy to grow faster than all G7 economies this year but less than emerging European economies. Military expenditure has supported economic growth of countries at war throughout history. According to Rosstat, Russia's labour productivity index, one of Putin's key national development goals, fell 3.6% year-on-year in 2022, its steepest annual fall since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. "I don't see current economic growth as lasting or qualitative," said Nadorshin.
Persons: Darya Korsunskaya, Alexander Marrow, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Khestanov, Alexandra Suslina, CAMAC, Rosstat, Anton Kotyakov, Yevgeny Nadorshin, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Darya, Gareth Jones Organizations: Statistics, Reuters, Soviet Union, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Labour, PF, Central Bank Governor Locations: Russia, Ukraine
The Kremlin has plans to hike Russia's spending by 26% in 2024, per the UK's Ministry of Defence. Russia's National Wealth Fund is "increasingly being used to fund its invasion of Ukraine," it said. AdvertisementThe Kremlin will likely need to impose austerity measures to resolve Russia's budget deficit amid the growing cost of its invasion of Ukraine, according to UK intelligence. Advertisement"It is likely that the government will need to reduce its contributions to the National Wealth Fund and increase domestic taxes and debt to fund its planned expenditure," the UK MOD said. Such policies will have negative medium-to-long-term impacts, the UK MOD said on Monday.
Persons: , Alexandra Prokopenko, who's Organizations: Ministry of Defence, MOD, Wealth, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, National Wealth Fund, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Center of Eastern European, International Studies, Foreign, Reuters, Bloomberg, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Soviet Union, Russian
India's economy is expected to expand by 6.5% this year, according to IMF forecasts. The world's most populous nation was keen to talk up its prospects at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Advertisement"India has seized the moment," proclaimed housing minister Hardeep Singh Puri with confidence during a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month. The 10-strong group of emerging market nations now accounts for 45% of the world's population and 28% of global GDP. AdvertisementSome economists have criticized the government's narrative as a "false growth story," highlighting discrepancies in the data and criticizing the methods used to calculate economic growth.
Persons: , Hardeep Singh, Smriti Irani, BI's Spriha Srivastava, that's, Narendra Modi's, Cash, Modi, SAJJAD HUSSAIN, I've, Andy Baldwin, EY, Narendra Modi, Brazil's Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Dan Kitwood, Getty, ISRO Goldman Sachs, Ashoka Mody, Rajesh Kumar Singh, Vladimir Putin, Singh Organizations: Economic, Service, BI, IMF, Business, Apple, ISRO, Princeton University, World Bank, US, of, Hindustan Times, Harvard Business Locations: Davos, India, China, Japan, Brazil, China India, India's, Ukraine
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Demand for new housing in China is set to drop by around 50% over the next decade, making it harder for Beijing to quickly bolster the country's overall growth. China's real estate sector and related industries have accounted for about a quarter of the country's gross domestic product. Zhang said China's housing demand would remain large, and policy support would gradually kick in. "Therefore, a significant decline in housing demand is very unlikely to happen," he said. The IMF report compared housing demand and new starts from the 2012 to 2021 period with estimates for 2024 to 2033.
Persons: Zhengxin Zhang, Zhang, Evergrande, Sonali Jain, Chandra, Nir Klein Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, International Monetary Fund's, IMF, U.S ., People's Bank of China Locations: Huai'an, China, BEIJING, Beijing, Evergrande, Hong Kong, Asia, Pacific
CAIRO (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it had agreed with Egypt on the key policy components of an economic reform programme, in a further sign that a final deal to augment the country's $3 billion loan is nearing completion. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, the IMF mission chief for Egypt, said both sides had made "excellent progress" on the discussions of a comprehensive policy package that could kickstart long-delayed reviews of the country's economic reform programme. "To this end, the IMF team and the Egyptian authorities have agreed on the main policy elements of the program. The authorities expressed a strong commitment to act promptly on all critical aspects of Egypt's economic reform program," Hollar said in a statement. The Egyptian pound, fixed at 30.85 to the dollar since then, has been trading on the black market as low as 71 pounds.
Persons: Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, Hollar, Kristalina Georgieva, Hatem Maher, Jacqueline Wong, Leslie Adler Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: CAIRO, Egypt, Israel, Gaza, Cairo
Photographer: Linh Pham/Bloomberg via Getty Images Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesMost developing economies in Asia might have left the worst of the broad manufacturing slowdown behind in 2023, according to a series of private surveys released Thursday. South Korea's S&P manufacturing purchasing managers' index recorded its first expansionary reading since June 2022 at 51.2 in January, up from 49.9 in December. "The health of the South Korean manufacturing sector registered a renewed improvement at the start of 2024. Growth was reportedly reflective of increased domestic and international orders, particularly for new products," Bhatti added. These private PMI surveys are typically seen as one of several leading indicators of economic activity in the respective economies.
Persons: Linh Pham, Usamah Bhatti, Bhatti, Annabel Fiddes Organizations: Wind Corp, Vung, Renewables, International Energy Agency, Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, P Global Market Intelligence, Vietnam, ASEAN, PMI, International Monetary Fund, IMF, " Companies Locations: Tan Thanh, Ba, Vung Tau Province, Vietnam, Asia, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand
"Our job is 98% done," Privatisation Minister Fawad Hasan Fawad told Reuters when asked about the plan to sell the airline. Details of the privatisation process have not been previously reported. PIA had liabilities of 785 billion Pakistani rupees ($2.81 billion) and accumulated losses of 713 billion rupees as of June last year. Its CEO has said losses in 2023 were likely to be 112 billion rupees. PIA spokesman Abdullah Hafeez Khan said the airline was assisting the privatisation process, extending "full cooperation" to the transaction adviser.
Persons: Asif Shahzad, Fawad Hasan Fawad, Fawad, Ernst & Young, Shamshad Akhtar, Abdullah Hafeez Khan, Nawaz, Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan, Sharif's, Ishaq Dar, EASA, Brendan Sobie, Gibran Peshimam, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: Pakistan International Airlines, International Monetary Fund, PIA, IMF, Reuters, Caretaker, Ernst &, Ernst, FAST, Pakistan Muslim League, European Union Aviation Safety Agency, Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham, Kuwaiti Locations: Asif Shahzad ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Czech, Hungarian, Karachi, Europe, Kuala Lumpur, Toronto, Singapore, East, North America, Paris, New York
US recession calls are still on the table, but the economy is still outpacing other rich nations. US GDP grew at a surprise 3.3% rate in the fourth quarter, beating estimates for 2.0%. The trend has held steady over the last several years, with the US leading in economic growth since the pandemic. Among countries that use the euro, the combined GDP grew at a 0.1% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2023. US GDP growth reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, and exports, among other increases, according to the BEA.
Persons: , Russell Price, That's Organizations: Service, OECD, BEA, International Monetary Fund, Fed Locations: Canada, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Germany
The firm’s monthly survey showed 107,000 jobs were added, well below the 145,000 estimate. “Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The ADP report comes two days ahead of the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report for January, with consensus estimates for about a 180,000 gain in payrolls after December’s better-than-expected 216,000 increase. “The January jobs report will likely show that the labor market started the year on a solid note,” said Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist. The strong job market and U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter led the International Monetary Fund to boost its projections of global economic growth this year.
Persons: , Nela Richardson, December’s, Lydia Boussour, EY, , Jerome Powell, José Torres Organizations: ADP, Labor, Federal Reserve, Observers, Interactive, International Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: U.S, payrolls, hawkish,
The International Monetary Fund revised up its growth forecast for developing Asia economies in 2024 as it remained optimistic on India, but warned of risks from China's deepening property sector crisis. It expects emerging economies in Asia to grow at 5.2%, a 0.4 percentage point upgrade from its prior forecast in October. The IMF expects China's economy to grow 4.6% in 2024, a 0.4 percentage point higher estimate than its last forecast in October. Even as it upgraded China's overall growth outlook, it still warned, "deepening property sector woes in China or, elsewhere, a disruptive turn to tax hikes and spending cuts could also cause growth disappointments." The IMF emphasized thorough restructuring policy measures need to be implemented to stem China's property woes.
Organizations: Caixin Media, Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Beijing, China, Asia, India
The International Monetary Fund raised its 2024 forecast for Russia's economy. AdvertisementVladimir Putin's ongoing war with Ukraine is boosting Russia's economy, the International Monetary Fund said. In an update to its World Economic Outlook issued Tuesday, the IMF raised its 2024 growth forecast for Russia from 1.1% to 2.6%. The IMF flagged Russia's high military spending as one factor powering growth. Russia's tight labor market has also helped boost the economy by pushing up wages and consumer spending, according to the IMF.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin's, Dmitry Peskov, Pierre, Olivier Gourrinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, Service, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Russia Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Moscow, China, India, Brazil
Worldwide, the IMF thinks inflation will ease from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. The IMF expects the 20 countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow a meager 0.9% this year. The IMF also modestly downgraded the outlook for the Japanese economy, to 0.9%, a drop from 1.9% growth in 2023. The IMF expects oil prices, which plunged 16% in 2023, to fall a further 2.3% this year and 4.8% in 2025. The IMF expects world trade to grow just 3.3% this year and 3.6% in 2025, below the historical average of 4.9%.
Persons: ’ Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, ’ Gourinchas, Joe Biden’s Organizations: WASHINGTON, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, IMF, Trade Organization Locations: United States, Yemen, Red, Asia, Europe, Suez, Africa, U.S, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Russian, China
London CNN —The outlook for the global economy is brightening, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday as it upgraded its growth forecast for 2024. It expects global growth in gross domestic product — a key measure of economic activity — to pick up slightly to 3.2% next year. Despite the IMF’s upgrades, its projections for global growth for 2024 and 2025 are below the annual average of 3.8% clocked up over the first two decades of this century. The longer and costlier journeys have raised fears of a renewed rise in global inflation. An escalation in the Israel-Hamas war into a wider conflict in the Middle East would threaten global growth, the fund added.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Valerie Plesch Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Hamas Locations: Ukraine, Red, United States, India, Washington , DC, Getty Images Iran, Israel
Global inflation is expected to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and to 4.4% in 2025. “The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. That is not to say the global economy is without challenges. It also raises concerns about a revival of global inflation pressures as importers face surging shipping costs,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon. “For now, we don’t expect the situation in the Red Sea to substantially alter the outlook for global inflation and global monetary policy this year,” she added.
Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, , Lydia Boussour, Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Eric LeCompte, LeCompte Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, . News, USA Locations: U.S, China, , Ukraine, Iranian, Suez, EY, India, Russia, East, Central Asia, Saudi Arabia, , Brazil
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