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Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.
"Property measures are expected to strengthen support, which will improve residents' confidence." A recent slew of support measures, including loan repayment extensions, aimed at improving liquidity in the property sector has underpinned market sentiment. But analysts and economists in the poll expected concerns about falling house prices, protracted COVID restrictions, and delays in construction to continue to weigh on demand. Property sales were seen slumping 5.0% in the first half of 2023, a smaller drop than the 15.0% fall forecast in the September poll. Some analysts say average house prices will need to fall by around 20% to 30% to entice demand.
Under the creative direction of its new designer Daniel Lee, Burberry would "refocus on Britishness", it said. Known for its camel, red and black check and trenchcoats, Burberry kept near-term guidance to the end of its 2024 financial year of high-single digit revenue growth and a margin of around 20%. She said comparable store sales in mainland China, Burberry's biggest single market, fell 1% in the second quarter after falling 35% in the first, despite some local COVID lockdowns in September. "In the second quarter the situation eased considerably." Europe perform strongly, with sales up 25% in the second quarter, boosted by a rise in tourists from the United States, the Middle East and locations in Asia outside mainland China.
Under the creative direction of its new designer Daniel Lee, Burberry would "refocus on Britishness", it said. It had targeted high-single digit revenue growth and a margin of around 20%. Comparable store sales in mainland China, Burberry's biggest single market, stabilised in the second quarter after falling 35% in the first, it said, despite some local COVID lockdowns in September. Europe continued to perform strongly, it said, with sales up 25% in the second quarter, boosted by a rise in tourists from the United States, the Middle East and locations in Asia outside mainland China. The Americas continued to be a weak spot, however, with sales in second quarter down 3%, reflecting some pressure in the entry level items and U.S. customers spending more in Europe rather than at home.
[1/3] A cargo ship and containers are seen at an industrial port in Tokyo, Japan, February 15, 2022. The world's third-biggest economy has struggled to motor on despite the recent lifting of COVID curbs, and has faced intensifying pressure from red-hot global inflation, sweeping interest rate increases worldwide and the Ukraine war. GLOBAL RISKSHowever, the risks to Japan's outlook have risen as the global economy teeters on the brink of recession. Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said a global recession could hit households and businesses. "As for 2023, Japan will be dragged into a mild recession in H1 by a global downturn that will weigh on exports and business investment."
Japan's economy shrinks for first time in a year
  + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Japan’s economy unexpectedly shrank for the first time in a year in the third quarter, stoking further uncertainty about the outlook as global recession risks, a weak yen and higher import costs took a toll on household consumption and businesses. The world’s third biggest economy has struggled to motor on despite the recent lifting of Covid curbs, and has faced intensifying pressure from red-hot global inflation, sweeping interest rate increases worldwide and the Ukraine war. “But the three key pillars of demand - consumption, capital expenditure and exports - remained in positive territory, if not robust, so demand is not as weak as the headline figure shows.”Global risksHowever, the risks to Japan’s outlook have risen as the global economy teeters on the brink of recession. Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said a global recession could hit households and businesses. The Bank of Japan has also maintained its ultra-loose monetary stimulus program to help revive the economy.
SummarySummary Companies H1 profit down 24%Expects profit decline in full yearFacing higher labour, energy, currency costsLONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - British retailer Marks & Spencer (MKS.L) warned on Wednesday of a "gathering storm" of higher costs and pressure on household budgets, as it reiterated full-year profits would fall. Profits fell, despite an 8.5% rise in revenue to 5.54 billion pounds, due to higher costs. Prior to Wednesday's update, analysts were on average forecasting a profit before tax and adjusting items of 397 million pounds for the 2022-23 fiscal year, down from 523 million pounds in 2021-22. Marks & Spencer (M&S), whose shares have halved this year, said total food sales increased 5.6% in the first half, while clothing and home sales rose 14%. "Across all M&S markets it is highly likely that conditions will become more challenging in FY24," M&S said.
There are still several reasons to own Airbnb 's stock despite its latest quarterly numbers, according to Evercore ISI. Analyst Mark Mahaney reiterated the stock as an outperform with a price target of $150, which implies a 37.7% upside. Airbnb dropped 5% in premarket trading after the company reported "not fully positive results," though he said the travel platform's performance was "more of an Expectations Correction than a Fundamentals Correction." He also pointed to the 15% supply growth disclosure which countered arguments that supply has peaked, which would in turn stunt growth. Revenue growth, in turn, is expected to slow down to 20% in 2023 from 39% in 2022.
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) started raising rates in May even though inflation was within its target range of 2%-3%. It has since hiked rates by 75 basis points to keep inflation in check. All but two of 27 economists in the Oct. 25-31 poll predicted BNM would hike its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% from 2.50% at its Nov. 3 meeting. While 13 of 18 penciled in a 25 basis point hike in Q1, three said 50 basis points. The median forecast showed the overnight policy rate would remain at 3.00% until at least the end of next year.
Oct 27 (Reuters) - French video game maker Ubisoft (UBIP.PA) said on Thursday its net result turned into a loss in the half-year, citing lost research and development expenses and related game cancellations. The firm has been dogged by game delays, on top of project cancellations and heavy sector competition. The maker of the blockbuster "Assassin's Creed" franchise posted a net loss of 190.2 million euros ($190.6 million)in the half-year ended on September 30, compared to a slight profit of 1.6 million euros in the same period last year. Ubisoft nonetheless on Thursday confirmed its full-year guidance and projected third quarter net bookings of around 830 million euros, on the back of a still unspecified mobile licensing deal. The "Prince of Persia" franchise maker posted net bookings down 2.6% to 699.4 million euros for the six months ended in September.
Annual price rises were expected to peak at 10.4% this quarter, the poll showed, before gradually declining, but won't fall to target until at least 2025. The median forecast in the Oct. 18-25 poll showed the BoE would take Bank Rate up by 75 bps to 3.00% next week. But while that was a view held by 18 of 30 respondents, 10 expected 100 bps, one said 125 bps and one said 150. It was then expected to add another 75 bps in December and 50 bps next quarter before pausing, meaning rates would peak at 4.25% in the current cycle. Both the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to deliver 75-bps increases at their next meetings.
SummarySummary Companies Company now includes Arctic LNG 2 project in FY guidanceSees FY revenue at 6.2-6.5 bln euros, core margin at 6.7-6.9%Anticipates Exit Framework Agreement completion in H1 2023Oct 20 (Reuters) - Technip Energies (TE.PA) expects to fully exit the liquefied natural gas project (LNG) Arctic LNG 2 led by Moscow-listed gas producer Novatek (NVTK.MM) next year, the French oil and gas services provider said on Thursday. Before what Moscow calls its "special military operation", Arctic LNG 2 was set to be launched in 2023 and reach full production capacity of almost 20 million tonnes of LNG a year in 2026. The stock of Technip Energies, which specialises in engineering and technology for the energy industry, has recovered much of the ground lost in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, when the shares halved in value in just ten days. Including the expected contribution from Arctic LNG 2, Technip Energies forecast full-year revenue of 6.2-6.5 billion euros ($6.1-$6.3 billion) and a recurring core margin of 6.7%-6.9%. Its adjusted revenue in the third quarter amounted to 1.60 billion euros, against 1.67 billion a year earlier.
For the third prong of BofA's capitulation test, the policy outlook also is getting closer, with respondents seeing interest rate cuts and lower bond yields ahead. However, investors are much closer to peak-fear capitulation when it comes to the economy and market outlook. A net 72% of survey respondents see global growth declining over the next year, just off the all-time low. However, he also noted that the rising pessimism has still been met with positive flows to equity funds, "suggesting no sign yet of capitulation from retail/institutional investors." The survey indicated the most crowded trade to be long the U.S. dollar, followed by short U.S. stocks and long ESG assets.
Qantas expects to report first-half underlying earnings before tax of between A$1.2 billion ($753.12 million) and A$1.3 billion, up from a similar-sized loss the prior year. "We now expect it to be a very strong profit," Qantas Chief Executive Alan Joyce told reporters of the first half. He declined to provide an outlook for the second half beyond noting that international ticket prices were expected to moderate as Qantas and rivals added capacity. Qantas has traditionally reported stronger profits in the first half than the second half because of seasonal effects and it also faces rising economic headwinds and a higher fuel price. Joyce said inflation and interest rate increases had not yet dented travel demand and higher fares were allowing it to recover the increased cost of fuel.
The airline said on Thursday it expected to swing to a first-half underlying profit of between A$1.2 billion ($753.12 million) and A$1.3 billion, up from a similar-sized loss the prior year. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"We now expect it to be a very strong profit," Qantas Chief Executive Alan Joyce told reporters of the first half. He declined to provide an outlook for the second half beyond noting that international ticket prices were expected to moderate as Qantas and rivals added capacity. Joyce said inflation and interest rate increases had not yet dented travel demand and higher fares were allowing it to recover the increased cost of fuel. Qantas, like domestic rival Virgin Australia and many other airlines globally, suffered from a rise in delays, cancellations, lost baggage and staffing issues this year as travel demand rebounded.
An employee mixes liquid fragrances in a bottle in a laboratory of Swiss flavours and fragrances maker Givaudan in the town of Duebendorf, Switzerland November 5, 2015. Group sales rose 6.1% on a like-for-like basis and 7.7% in Swiss francs, reaching 5.458 billion Swiss francs ($5.45 billion) in the first nine months of 2022. However, sales in the group's taste and wellbeing unit that makes flavours for food and drinks fell 2.8% in North America, implying an even stronger slowdown in the third quarter. Givaudan's shares, down almost 37% so far this year, were 6.4% lower at 0801 GMT. Givaudan confirmed its mid-term target of 4-5% average organic sales growth per year on a like-for-like basis.
Bain Capital, Blackstone, and KKR are among the largest private-equity firms in the world. Private-equity employees often make six-figure salaries, even at the entry level. These private-equity firms, along with others, are accelerating their recruiting timelines to get ahead of their competitors, Insider previously reported. To woo promising junior talent, many private-equity firms are offering high salaries. Additionally, some private-equity employees earn carried interest, which is compensation based off a certain percent of a private-equity fund's earnings that is collected after the minimum return is met.
Private equity is a rewarding but challenging field to break into. Here is what we found about pay at private equity firms, including Blackstone, Apollo, and Bain Capital. Private equity recruiting has been starting earlier than ever Getty ImagesPrivate equity firms like to recruit from investment banks. These days, the private equity recruiting process has started earlier than ever, and it's resulting in middle-of-the-night interviews with offers being made — and blown up — all before Labor Day. General Atlantic managing director Alex Crisses walked Insider through the growth-equity investment firm's elite summer souring internship.
Persons: Jeffrey Hamilton, Alyssa Powell, Blackstone, Samantha Lee, Drew Angerer, Skye Gould, Jon Gray, Grace Koo, Read, Sara Diniz, Carlyle, Alex Crisses, Thoma Bravo, , Warburg Pincus, Wharton's, Axel Springer Organizations: Blackstone, KKR, Morning, Getty, Apax Partners, Oaktree, of Foreign Labor, Apollo, Bain Capital, Labor, KKR KKR, General Atlantic, PJT Partners, Partners, dealmakers, Wall, University of Michigan Locations: Carlyle, Blackstone, Axel
After the 2020 pandemic bump, we expect monthly digital gaming usage will see minimal growth through the end of our forecast (1.1% in 2022 and 0.9% in 2023). We expect the number of US digital gamers to reach 179.6 million by 2022. Other gaming platforms that serve as a happy medium between convenient mobile gaming technology and more advanced console systems are laptop and PC devices. Overall, there will be more than 29.6 million monthly US esports viewers in 2022, amounting to over 49.9% of all GVC viewers. But this growth won’t last too long, as monthly digital gamers are expected to increase by just 1.1% in 2022.
Nearly 68% of US marketers from companies with 100 or more employees will use influencer marketing in 2021. Most brands today have incorporated influencer marketing into their media plans, and many intend to allocate even more funds to the tactic this year. Insider IntelligenceInfluencer marketing 2021 forecastAccording to our latest forecast, 67.9% of US marketers from companies with 100 or more employees will use influencer marketing in 2021, up from 62.3% last year. "Social commerce in particular has made influencers very powerful," said Stacy DeBroff, founder and CEO of influencer marketing platform Influence Central. According to January 2021 research by Influencer Marketing Hub and influencer marketing platform Upfluence, 62% of marketers worldwide said they intend to increase their influencer marketing budgets this year, while one-fifth expecting their influencer budgets to remain the same as they were in 2020.
Компания Apple показала свои новые беспроводные наушники, выполненные в полноразмерном формате — AirPods Max. В Apple обещают, что каждая чашка подстроится под анатомию пользователя, а "дышащий" материал не доставит дискомфорта при долгом прослушивании музыки. AirPods Max оснащены 40-миллиметровым динамическим драйвером, который обеспечит насыщенное звучание. AirPods Max автоматически определяет, когда находятся на голове пользователя и автоматически ставит воспроизведение на паузу, даже при поднятии одной чашки. В США AirPods Max предлагаются за 549 долларов (примерно 40 000 рублей по текущему курсу, без учета налогов штата).
Persons: AirPods Max Organizations: Apple, AirPods Locations: США
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