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Is the vibecession about to end?
  + stars: | 2024-11-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Optimism surged post-2016 election, with small businesses planning to hire more employees. Yes, that's a portmanteau of vibes and expansion, and it's the upbeat version of its better-known cousin, the vibecession. Advertisement"Small business owners lean Republican," said Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a November 12 note. Goldman Sachs"After Donald Trump was elected the 45th President in November 2016, the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) small business optimism index skyrocketed. "We expect an improving small business operating environment will boost the sentiment and spending of SMBs in 2025 and lift the earnings and valuation of stocks with revenues tied to that spending."
Persons: Kyla Scanlon, National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't, there's, Donald Trump's, Oliver Allen, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, David Kostin, they're, Daniel Zhao, Louis, Zhao Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Chief US, Economics, Workers, Glassdoor, Louis Fed Locations: St
The sale includes Infowars’ website, studio equipment, online dietary supplement store and social media accounts, which are followed by millions of users. In past legal disputes over account ownership, social media companies have left it to the courts and parties involved to work it out. But in this case, X is stepping in, objecting to Jones and Infowars’ X accounts being part of the sale. That stands out to experts in social media law. “What conceivable motivation does a company have for destroying the value in their users’ accounts, and implicitly threatening all other users?” Butterfield said.
Persons: New York CNN — Elon Musk’s, Alex Jones ’ Infowars, Jones, Sandy Hook, Infowars, Elon, ” Jones, I’ve, , Toby Butterfield, X, that’s, Eric Goldman, ” Goldman, “ It’s, Elon Musk, ” Butterfield, Donald Trump Organizations: New, New York CNN, Systems, Columbia University’s Law, X, Santa Clara University School of Law, NPR Locations: New York, Sandy, Texas
China is on edge after Trump's talk of tariffs
  + stars: | 2024-11-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
AdvertisementOn Monday, Donald Trump threatened more tariffs on China, blaming Beijing for fentanyl. China criticized Trump's tariff threats, calling them ineffective and unjustified. "The excuse the president-elect has given to justify his threat of additional tariffs on imports from China is farfetched," wrote China Daily in a Tuesday editorial. AdvertisementMarkets are muted as investors wait and seeGlobal markets were jolted following Trump's post on Truth Social on Monday, but the effects have been felt mostly in foreign exchange. Global firms and Chinese manufacturers have already been diversifying their operations to manage concentration risks following Trump's first term and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, he'd, George Saravelos, Goldman Sachs, Wu Zhiqiang, Young Liu, Al Jazeera Organizations: Global, Deutsche Bank, Shenzhen Lingke Technology, Nikkei Asia, Apple, Macquarie Locations: China, Beijing, United States, Shenzhen, Thailand, India, Vietnam, Taipei, Al, Southeast Asia, Africa, China's
CNN —Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum denied proposing to US President-elect Donald Trump that Mexico will close its border with the United States as he claimed in a post on Truth Social. She has agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border. We also talked about what can be done to stop the massive drug inflow into the United States, and also, U.S. consumption of these drugs. It was a very productive conversation!” Trump posted on Truth Social. In his comments Wednesday, Trump did not say whether he would stand by the pledge or anything Sheinbaum had said addressed his concerns.
Persons: Claudia Sheinbaum, Donald Trump, ” Sheinbaum, ” Sheinbaum’s, Trump, , Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, ” Trump, Sheinbaum, Biden, Joe Biden, “ rethinks, ” Biden, Justin Trudeau, Trudeau, Liu Pengyu, ” Liu, CNN’s Sol Amaya, David Goldman, Betsy Klein, Paula Newton Organizations: CNN, Trump, Mexico, Canadian, Embassy, United States Locations: Mexico, United States, Canada, China, America, Canadian, United
A Chinese bank worker prepares to count a stack of US dollars together with stacks of 100 Chinese yuan notes at a bank in Hefei, east China's Anhui province on March 9, 2010. STR/AFP | Getty ImagesChinese authorities are contending with a weakening yuan as global investment banks forecast the currency to hit record lows, in anticipation of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump following through with his tariff threats. That would mark the currency's weakest level on record, according to LSEG data going back to 2004. Trump had already pledged 60% or higher tariffs on Chinese goods during his election campaign. The PBOC has been supporting the value of onshore yuan by capping the daily reference rate at 7.20 on the dollar this year.
Persons: Donald Trump, Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Trump, Jonas Goltermann, Kotecha, Wang, Ju Wang, Cedric Chehab Organizations: Getty Images, U.S, UBS, BNP, Barclays, Generale, Morgan, Macquarie Group, Nomura, ING, Oxford, Trump, Capital Economics, FX, Greater China FX, Reuters, BNP Paribas, BMI Locations: Hefei, Anhui, U.S, Asia, China
Federal ethics laws require those senior government jobs in the Cabinet and beyond to divest their individual stock holdings, lest anyone be tempted to abuse their position of power to juice their personal investments. “The rule of thumb is, recuse or divest,” said Jordan Libowitz, vice president for communications at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or CREW. “The more complex your assets are, the harder it can be to divest from them. Although the president isn’t subject to conflict of interest laws, most presidents have adhered to them anyway to avoid any appearance of impropriety. Given Trump’s own disregard for ethics rules, it’s not clear how, or even whether, his Justice Department would enforce the criminal conflict of interest laws that his Cabinet picks are subject to.
Persons: who’s, Nixon, Donald Trump, Howard Lutnick, Linda McMahon, , , Jordan Libowitz, Scott Bessent, haven’t, Bloomberg —, Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Newmark, it’s, ” Robert Rizzi, isn’t, Trump, disentangle, Rizzi, ” Rizzi, John Paulson, you’re, ” Libowitz, George W, Hank Paulson, Goldman Sachs, he’d, JD Vance, he’s, Libowitz, , ’ ”, didn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury Department, titans, Citizens, Forbes, Bloomberg, Government, Key Square Capital Management, Holland, Knight, Treasury, Bush’s, Wall, Trump Media, Technology, Department, FBI, Trump Locations: New York, Washington, Cantor’s, Washington ,
Where to invest in GLP-1 stocks
  + stars: | 2024-11-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhere to invest in GLP-1 stocksSalveen Richter, Goldman Sachs lead U.S. biotech analyst, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Amgen's mid-stage trial results for its experimental obesity drug, why she remains bullish on the company, where to invest in GLP-1 stocks, and more.
Persons: Salveen Richter, Goldman Sachs Locations: GLP
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineEven before Trump enters the White House, investors are already living in his world. Upon Trump's election win, the so-called "Trump trade" has flourished, with risk assets in general on an upward trajectory. Posturing or not, it's likely Trump's proposed policies will sway the markets in the foreseeable future.
Persons: Donald Trump, Brandon Bell, Trump, Scott Bessent, Goldman Sachs's, Jan Hatzius, Gregory Daco, Jamie Cox, , Sarah Min, Alex Harring, Samantha Subin Organizations: GM STLA, SpaceX, Getty, CNBC, House, Trump, Mexico —, UBS, GM, Ford, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Harris Financial Locations: Brownsville , Texas, Mexico, Canada, EY, U.S
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineEven before Trump enters the White House, investors are already living in his world. Upon Trump's election win, the so-called "Trump trade" has flourished, with risk assets in general on an upward trajectory. Posturing or not, it's likely Trump's proposed policies will sway the markets in the foreseeable future.
Persons: STLA, Donald Trump, Sen, Ted Cruz, Brandon Bell, Trump, Scott Bessent, Goldman Sachs's, Jan Hatzius, Gregory Daco, Jamie Cox, , Sarah Min, Alex Harring, Samantha Subin Organizations: SpaceX, Getty, CNBC, House, Trump, Mexico —, UBS, GM, Ford, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Harris Financial Locations: Brownsville , Texas, Mexico, Canada, EY, U.S
Higher fuel prices could be in the cards if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his tariff threats on Canada, according to industry experts, who are skeptical on whether the new levies will ever be implemented. Trump on Monday pledged to implement additional tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency, according to his posts on social media platform Truth Social. He said he would sign an executive order on Jan. 20 imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, a move that may breach the terms of a regional free trade agreement. Goldman Sachs' Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven said that if a 25% levy hit Canadian crude exports to the U.S. "that could, in theory, lead to some pretty significant consequences for three groups." U.S. refiners who rely on Canadian oil barrels could face lower profit margins, and consumers may potentially face higher prices, surmised Struyven.
Persons: Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Daan Struyven Organizations: Trump, Global Commodities, Daan, U.S . Energy Information Administration Locations: Canada, China, Mexico
Tuorto: We have a much more stable economic environment in 2025.
  + stars: | 2024-11-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTuorto: We have a much more stable economic environment in 2025. Greg Tuorto, Portfolio Manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, highlights a stable 2025 economic environment and better-than-expected earnings. He attributes the success of the Goldman Sachs Small Cap Core ETF to focusing on quality companies.
Persons: Greg Tuorto, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Goldman Sachs Asset Management
In today's big story, the world reacts to Donald Trump's latest trade plans , which could be a massive negotiation tactic . Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesThe man who dubbed himself a master negotiator is upending the global trade market with his latest tactic. AdvertisementThe world is reacting to President-elect Donald Trump's new trade proposals targeting China, Mexico, and Canada. There's a lot to unpack, so let's break it down:So, Trump finally gave us an update on his tariff plans. He's telegraphed his plans for hammering Chinese imports, but a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican goods was a shock.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Michael M, He's, Will, Justin Trudeau, Claudia Sheinbaum's, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Goldman, Scott Wren, Wells Fargo's, They've, Elon Musk's, Omead Afshar, Afshar, Prince Williams, Bill Clark, Astrida Valigorsky, Alyssa Powell, Kendrick Lamar, Drake, Dan DeFrancesco, Grace Lett, Ella Hopkins, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Affordable, Canadian, Trump, US, Companies, Getty, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, BI, Tesla, North, Spotify, Universal Music, Wall Street Locations: China, Russia, Mexico, Canada, Canada's, East, New York, Chicago, London
JPMorgan upgrades Martin Marietta Materials to overweight from neutral JPMorgan says the building materials company is well positioned. JPMorgan reiterates HP Inc. as overweight JPMorgan says it's standing by the stock following earnings on Tuesday. Bank of America reiterates CrowdStrike as buy Bank of America says trends are improving for CrowdStrike following earnings on Tuesday. Citi upgrades Urban Outfitters to buy from neutral Citi upgraded the stock following earnings and says it likes the retailer's execution. HSBC downgrades CrowdStrike to hold from buy HSBC downgraded CrowdStrike following its earnings and says it sees "limited near-term visibility."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Piper Sandler, Baird, it's bullish, Daiwa, Datadog, CrowdStrike, Bernstein Organizations: Dell Technologies, DELL, JPMorgan, Martin Marietta Materials, HP Inc, Holdings, Disney, DIS, Bank of America, Nvidia, Citi, Urban Outfitters, UBS, Goods, HSBC, CrowdStrike, Ford, General Motors
President-elect Donald Trump has called for cutting the corporate tax rate – and a slate of companies could stand to benefit, according to an analysis from Wolfe Research. That would be a reduction from the current corporate tax rate of 21%. A corporate tax rate of 18% would increase S & P 500 earnings per share by $5, while a 15% rate would lift earnings per share by $10, he said. Senyek's team identified companies that could see the greatest impact on their earnings per share from a lower tax rate. Wolfe also highlighted Amazon in its list of companies that could benefit from a lower corporate tax rate.
Persons: Donald Trump, Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Peter Supino, Biden, Supino, LSEG, Wells, Ken Gawrelski, AMZN, Fiserv, Goldman Sachs, Trump Organizations: Wolfe Research, Trump, White House, Republicans, GOP, US, Warner Bros, Discovery, Warner, White, ., Bank of America Locations: China, Wells Fargo
AdvertisementThe global economic expansion will continue into 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "But it's all a give and take here, because we're also going to be seeing a lot of efficiencies come into the labor market, potentially." GSAM strategists aren't sweating about the labor market yet, but they're watching those trends closely. Despite their lofty valuations, GSAM isn't bailing on US equities. That may finally change in 2025 as China's government gets serious about economic stimulus, Wilson-Elizondo said.
Persons: Alexandra Wilson, Elizondo, Goldman, Trump's, Wilson, We're, we're, corporates —, it's, aren't, isn't, GSAM Organizations: Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Management, Trump, Companies, Goldman, Wilson
Goldman's retail stock picks for Black Friday and the holidays
  + stars: | 2024-11-27 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Goldman recently surveyed 1,000 U.S. consumers about their holiday shopping plans, sorted by channel, products and retailers. "We continue to see a healthy holiday shopping backdrop for retailers that offer strong value and innovation across their assortments," Roach said. Amazon remains one of the most popular retail destinations for holiday shopping, attracting slightly more interest compared to the prior year, according to Goldman. Target, another forecasted retail winner this season from Goldman, has lagged its retail peers this year, down 8% in 2024. Wrangler brand owner Kontoor Brands was also among Goldman's buy-rated picks that it thinks can offer strong value and product innovation.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Brooke Roach, Roach, LSEG, Kontoor Brands, Goldman's Organizations: Goldman, Walmart, Target, Kontoor Brands, Black, Kontoor
It involves the release of at least one Chinese prisoner in the United States, two of the officials said. A State Department official in Washington confirmed the names of the Americans being released but would not give further details. During the negotiations, multiple American officials said they were in discussions about releasing Xu Yanjun, a Chinese intelligence officer serving prison time in the United States. custody.”Mr. Xu was the first Chinese spy officer indicted and arrested overseas and brought to trial in the United States, according to the Justice Department. China does not typically do prisoner swaps, said John Kamm, the founder of the Dui Hua Foundation, a human rights group in San Francisco.
Persons: Xu Yanjun, Xu, ” Mr, John Kamm, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Organizations: State Department, of Prisons, Justice Department, Hua Foundation Locations: China, Suzhou, United States, Washington, B.O.P, San Francisco
Demand for AI agents is giving birth to a new class of startups and VCs hungry to invest in them. It was a topic of conversation at the Evident AI Symposium in New York on Thursday. To take AI agents a step further, technologists and startup investors are fueling a shift to so-called multi-agent systems that coordinate several AI agents to complete more complex tasks more autonomously. Well, that's still being worked out, according to a number of tech executives at the Evident AI Symposium Thursday. Heitsenrether, speaking at the Evident AI conference, told the audience that, over time, she expects AI to be seamlessly embedded in an employee's workflow.
Persons: Danny Goldman's, Michael Lacorazza, Mako, It's, Jamie Dimon, Teresa Heitsenrether, Wall, they're, Gabriel Stengel, Kristin Milchanowski, Ganesh Organizations: Finance, Mako, Khosla Ventures, Bank, Goldman, JPMorgan, BMO Financial Group, of Cambridge Locations: New York, OpenAI
The S & P 500 will be propelled to new heights in the new year thanks to momentum in artificial intelligence, a resilient economy and the possibility of easier regulation on industries, according to JPMorgan. The labor market has also held up, with more than 100,000 jobs being added in all but one month this year. The S & P 500 is up 4.1% since the Nov. 5 vote. UBS said this week it sees the S & P 500 rising to 6,400 , while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect an expansion to 6,500. His 4,200, the lowest in the CNBC Pro Market Strategist Survey , implies 30% downside from Tuesday's close.
Persons: Dubravko Lakos, Bujas, Donald Trump's, Toll, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Tesla, Toll Brothers, Citigroup, UBS, Deutsche Bank, CNBC Pro Market, Survey Locations: Tuesday's, U.S
AdvertisementUS President-elect Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, impacting global markets and currencies. Some analysts see Trump's tariff threats as leverage for countries to comply with the President-elect's wishes. President-elect Donald Trump has two months until he takes office, but he's already dishing out orders — and shaking the markets. Trump wrote. Trump jolted global markets, but the reaction was 'benign'Trump's announcements surprised global markets, with the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso losing ground against the US dollar.
Persons: elect's, Donald Trump, , Trump, George Saravelos, Saravelos, Dave Townsend, Dorsey, Whitney, Townsend, Nick Marro, Marro, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Trump, Canadian, greenback, Deutsche Bank, Economist Intelligence Locations: Mexico, Canada, China, Trump, Asia
Beer is included in those categories and a huge share of American drinkers could face higher costs too, given the popularity of Corona and Modelo, the latter of which is now the No. Trump has insisted that countries of origin would pay the cost of any tariffs his administration seeks to impose. In a new note, analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated Trump's latest plans would cause inflation to increase by nearly 1%. In an interview with CNBC last week, the chief financial officer of Walmart said the big-box giant was bracing for potentially higher prices for its customers. But there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers.”
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Goldman Sachs, China —, ” John David Rainey, Organizations: University of California, U.S, UC Davis, Corona, Modelo, Goldman, Trump, CNBC, Walmart Locations: Mexico, Davis, U.S, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrump will be 'quick' to impose additional 20% tariff on Chinese exports next year, says GoldmanKinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, says implementation of the tariffs could take place in the first quarter and that the Chinese authorities are likely to come up with countermeasures to address "external demand headwinds."
Persons: Goldman Kinger Lau, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Trump Locations: China
President-elect Donald Trump's vow to implement additional tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency signals the start of a wild ride in currency markets, strategists say, warning it would be risky for investors to underestimate the impact on foreign exchange rates. The announcements prompted a knee-jerk reaction in currency markets, with the U.S. dollar rising more than 2% against the Mexican peso and notching a four-year high against the Canadian dollar . "I think the first reaction here is that investors should get ready for a wild ride in FX volatility," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging markets strategy research at Goldman Sachs . The index closed 0.6% lower in the previous session as investors welcomed hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Trump's pick for U.S. Treasury chief. "This is going to be something that we are all going to have to get used to.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Scott Bessent, Trivedi, CNBC's Organizations: U.S, Canadian, Goldman, The U.S, Treasury Locations: China, Canada, Mexico
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Tuesday: Wells Fargo upgrades Eastman Chemical to overweight from equal weight Wells Fargo says the chemical company is "attractive." HSBC downgrades Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley to hold from buy HSBC said the risk/reward is a less attractive. KeyBanc reiterates Nvidia as overweight The firm says it sees "limited competitive risks" for Nvidia shares. Wells Fargo reiterates Starbucks as overweight Wells raised its price target on the stock to $115 per share from $110. Redburn Atlantic Equities reiterates Amazon as buy The firm raised its price target on the stock to $235 per share from $225.
Persons: Wells Fargo, HSBC downgrades Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Baird, Bernstein, KeyBanc, it's bullish, TD Cowen, Pinterest, Cowen, Wells, Guggenheim, Michael Kors, UAL Organizations: Eastman Chemical, UBS, HSBC, Royal Caribbean, Nvidia, Bank of America, Citi, Chevron, ExxonMobil, SPX, JV, China, Guggenheim, Capri Holdings, Barclays, Apple, and Department of Justice, Google, DoJ, UBS reinstates United, Alaska Airlines, Amazon Web Services, Anheuser, Busch InBev, GAP Locations: Caribbean, China, Delta, DAL
A handful of retail stocks stand to benefit more than others as the holiday shopping season gets underway in earnest on Black Friday, if history is any guide. Citigroup analyst Paul Lejuez also pointed to a encouraging consumer spending trends heading into Black Friday. "Overall, our survey paints a favorable picture for holiday spending," Lejeuz wrote late last week. Executives cited strong holiday shopping trends as a tailwind. The company's third-quarter earnings on Tuesday surpassed analyst estimates on the top and bottom line, while Abercrombie also raised its year-over-year sales guidance, signaling strong holiday shopping trends.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Brooke Roach, Roach, Paul Lejuez, Lejeuz, Fitch, Abercrombie Organizations: Citigroup, CNBC Pro, P Retail, Body, Body Works, Abercrombie, Fitch Locations: Columbus , Ohio
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