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As it stands, a frantic Fed tightening campaign that supercharged the buck looks to be nearing an end amid evidence of steady disinflation. Taken in isolation, that would appears to have lopped more than 10% off the buck over the past three months. "Global growth is showing signs of buoyancy, macro and inflation uncertainty are waning, and the dollar is rapidly losing its carry advantage." DXY halves gainsU.S. import price inflation and the dollarReal yields, inflation and the dollarLESS CROWDEDTo what extent investors are already positioned for this ongoing slide is less clear. Policy pushback from the Fed always has the power to check prevailing dollar moves - but the flipside of dollar strength overseas could be even more powerful as European economies and Japan have to cope with volatility in dollar-priced energy and commodities.

☆ Morning bid: Dodging a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Global investors have fretted endlessly about a 2023 recession for the major global economies for more than six months. And Tuesday's latest economic healthcheck showed that the severe hit to Chinese economic activity from the draconian lockdown policies was actually much less than feared. The survey showed that investors' recession expectations peaked at a net 77% of respondents in November but have fallen to 68% in January. The BofA survey showed fund managers may have already repositioned, however, as their allocation to U.S. equities dived in January and a net 39% said they were underweight while preferring euro zone stocks.

☆ Fund manager allocation to U.S. stocks in January collapses, BofA survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Fund managers' allocation to U.S. equities collapsed in January, with 39% saying they had an underweight position, the most since October 2005, a BofA survey of global investor views on Tuesday showed. Global growth optimism hit a one-year high, while inflation expectations have peaked, according to the global Fund Manager Survey of investors, who have combined assets under management of $772 billion. The survey showed investors turned bullish on euro zone equities, flipping their allocation to a 4% net overweight in January from a 10% net underweight in December. Fund managers also moved into emerging market stocks, increasing their net overweight to 26%, the highest since June 2021. The survey also showed inflation staying high as the biggest "tail risk" and the top "contrarian trades" as being 'long' stocks, U.S. stocks and tech versus 'short' bonds, emerging market stocks and utilities.

☆ Davos 2023: Climate change leads to more malaria, tuberculosis up in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Leela De Kretser | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Climate change is increasing malaria infections, the executive director of the world's biggest health fund said in Davos on Monday. Huge surges in malaria infections followed recent floods in Pakistan and cyclones in Mozambique in 2021, said Peter Sands, the executive director of the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. He said climate change was also changing the geography of mosquitoes. Sands runs the world's largest global fund, which invests in fighting tuberculosis, malaria and HIV/AIDS in some of the poorest nations in the world. Looking ahead, climate change is just one of the factors that could hamper efforts to eradicate the diseases, Sands said.

And as the worst economic fears recede, global investors are rapidly rethinking historical underweights in euro zone assets. "One of the main sources of downside risk for economic activity in the euro zone is dissipating," said UniCredit economist Edoardo Campanella. Euro zone economic surprisesUnicredit chart on EU gas storageEuro natural gas prices plungeWEIRD WEATHERThat's not to suggest the problem is gone. Although back below 2021's peaks, year ahead natural gas prices in Europe are still three times the average of 15 year up to the pandemic. But there's little doubt Europe at large is weathering the winter storm better than most had imagined only a few months ago.

The jump was aided by Bridgewater China's raising of 2.7 billion yuan through a product launch in December, said the sources. Connecticut-based Bridgewater launched its first onshore China fund in 2018, and three years later its assets under management (AUM) in China exceeded 10 billion yuan, catapulting the firm past Winton and Man Group to become the biggest foreign hedge fund house in the country. By early November, Bridgewater's onshore China funds grew to roughly 19 billion yuan, Shanghai government data showed. The steady performance of Bridgewater's China funds - mainly targeting wealthy individuals - was highlighted in the hedge fund firm's sales pitch, which was seen by Reuters. Bridgewater's first China fund achieved an annualised return of 15.6% in the four years following its October 2018 launch.

☆ UK equity funds saw record $10 bln outflows in 2022-Calastone
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Equity funds shed 6.26 bln stg in 2022 -CalastoneRecord 1.17 billion stg of North American funds sold in 2022Signs of optimism returned in Q4 but UK funds shunnedGlobal ESG equity funds saw inflowsLONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Investors sold a record 8.38 billion pounds ($10 billion) worth of UK-focused equity funds last year, shunning Britain as the country braces for the worst recession among major economies, a global funds network said. Calastone said on Thursday that investment fund flows in 2022 were the weakest in at least eight years, with 6.29 billion pounds pulled from equity funds as the war in Ukraine helped to drive record inflation and interest rate hikes. Fleeing into cash and fund categories perceived to be lower-risk, investors also sold a record 1.17 billion of North American funds - the first year of outflows since 2016. Exits from European equity funds hit 2.65 billion pounds, while Asia-Pacific funds saw 1 billion pounds of withdrawals. Property funds, meanwhile, have been buffeted by outflows, partly because economic downturns snuff out demand for commercial property.

☆ The S&P 500 could return 16% in 2023 as a contrarian indicator sends bullish signals, says Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America's Sell Side Indicator is nearing a "Buy" signal, as Wall Street sentiment remains bearish on stocks. The indicator is part of the firm's forecast for 16% returns in the S&P 500 in 2023. BofA's Sell Side Indicator, which tracks strategists' average recommended allocation for stocks, is nearing a "Buy" signal, and is part of the firm's view for 16% returns in the S&P 500 in 2023. In 2022, the average recommended allocation to stocks fell by 6 percentage points, and the S&P 500 shed more than 19%. In the note, BofA analysts pointed out that Wall Street recommended underweighting equities through the bull market of the 1980s and 1990s, as well as the 2009-to-2020 bull market.

☆ Global equity funds see biggest weekly outflows since March 2020 -Lipper
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Dec 23 (Reuters) - Global equity funds have recorded their biggest weekly outflows since March 2020, hit by recession fears as central banks vow to keep interest rates higher to tame inflation. The Fed has delivered 400 basis points (bps) of rate hikes this year, and the European Central Bank a record 250 bps. Global bond funds also saw a net weekly outflow, of $14.1 billion, the biggest in more than two months. Money market funds recorded net sales of $41 billion. According to data available for 24,687 emerging market (EM) funds, a net $664 million flowed out of bond funds, while a meagre $195 million was added to equity funds.

☆ Here's what most investors think will happen with the stock market next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors aren't feeling bullish on stock market performance in 2023, especially after a dismal yearly return in 2022. More than half of those surveyed by Deutsche Bank on their expectations for the coming year said they expect a zero or negative return in the S & P 500 . Nearly 40% said they think the S & P 500 will slip 10% or more, and nearly 20% expect the index to end the year flat or down 5%. Another negative annual return on the S & P 500 would mark a milestone for stocks not seen in roughly two decades. After the rough performance of 2022, investors aren't expecting things to get much better.

☆ COVID hit HIV detection in Europe, threatens eradication progress
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Ajose Koilparambil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Hendrik Schmidt/Pool via Reuters/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The number of people in Europe with undiagnosed HIV has risen as testing rates fell during the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening a global goal of ending the disease by 2030, a report said. This region includes Russia and Ukraine, which have the area's highest rates of HIV infection. This setback was likely because services related to HIV, including testing, were sidelined in many European countries during the two years of the pandemic, the report found. The report used modelling to predict the number of estimated infections and compared that to testing data provided by 46 of the 53 countries in the WHO's European region. An estimated one in eight people living with HIV in that region remains undiagnosed, it found.

The average year-to-date losses on Thanksgiving days in these years was 10.5%, and the average rise post-Thanksgiving through Dec. 31 was 1.5%. The S&P 500's year-to-date loss on Thanksgiving Thursday this year was 15.5%, having been down as much as 27% in mid-October. chartIf ever there was a year Wall Street was primed to register an above-average whoosh in the last few trading weeks of the year, this is it. Even beyond investors' instinctive "FOMO" (fear of missing out) on the upswing underway, positioning is extremely light and portfolios are historically underweight stocks. Relative to average positioning over the past 10 years, investors' biggest underweight position this month is in stocks.

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - If financial markets bore the brunt of this year's interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line. With long-term U.S. fixed mortgage rates above 7% for the first time in 20 years, and more than double January rates, U.S. housing sales and starts are already feeling the heat. "We see a relatively greater risk of a meaningful rise in mortgage delinquency rates in the UK," Goldman said this month. While Australia and New Zealand have higher variable mortgage rates, British mortgage holders also have a higher vulnerability to rising joblessness. All of which bodes ill for UK house prices - although forecasts are still far from apocalyptic.

☆ Futures tick higher as investors await retail sales data, earnings
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street ended Tuesday higher despite geopolitical worries, after slower U.S. producer price growth data added to improved inflation outlook for the world's largest economy. Investors awaited key retail sales figures due at 8:30 am ET on Wednesday for further cues on the strength of the U.S. economy. Retailer Walmart Inc (WMT.N) jumped 6.5% in the previous session on lifting its annual sales and profit forecasts, helped by steady demand for groceries despite higher prices. ET, Dow e-minis were up 65 points, or 0.19%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 8 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 20.25 points, or 0.17%. Other megacap growth and technology companies such as Amazon.com (AMZN.O) gained 0.3%, while Apple (AAPL.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) were subdued.

☆ The S&P 500 has been rallying, but investor sentiment is still very bearish
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The S & P 500 has been rallying, but investor sentiment is still very bearish. Nearly 60% of traders say it feels like the U.S. is in an economic recession or will be by the end of 2022. One interesting tidbit on the Schwab survey: despite the cautious tone, most respondents don't seem to have sustained too much damage to their portfolios. Schwab traders (financial standing vs. year ago) Better off/Much better off: 25% About the same: 36% Much worse off/worse off: 37% Wow. These Schwab traders must be pretty smart.

☆ Less and late: UK gives $1 bln to global disease fight
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jennifer Rigby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The British government said on Monday it would contribute 1 billion pounds ($1.18 billion) to the Global Fund to fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, more than six weeks after other countries made their commitments. The total, which covers 2023-25, is 30% less than Britain pledged during the previous funding round in 2019, and below the 1.8 billion pounds requested this time. Its absence had generated surprise in global health circles when other leaders committed $14.25 billion on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September. Other G7 countries increased their donations given the unprecedented need after the pandemic disrupted efforts to tackle other urgent health needs. The Global Fund welcomed the funding, but advocacy organisations said it was not enough.

☆ Shanghai bourse kicks off week-long conference to woo global investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) kicks off on Wednesday a week-long global conference to promote China's capital markets, according to an official agenda, the latest in a flurry of activities by regulators to woo international investors. Participants at the annual SSE Global Investor Conference, to be held Nov. 9-16, and closed to the media, include Chinese regulators, executives from global banks and asset managers such as abrdn, Deutsche Bank and PIMCO. At the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit in Hong Kong last week, the country's senior financial regulators reaffirmed China's commitment to economic growth as a priority. Senior Chinese officials also sent similar messages at the China International Import Expo over the weekend. In the "fireside chat" section, senior officials from China's securities and foreign exchange regulators will talk about promoting the opening-up of China's capital market, and facilitating cross-border investment.

☆ Here's how to pick winning stocks that can help your portfolio survive a recession, according to the managers of a $42 billion fund that beat 92% of peers in the past decade
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-05 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Matt McLennan and Kimball Brooker have guided their fund to a top 8% performance in the past decade. That's in sharp contrast to Matt McLennan and Kimball Brooker, co-managers of the $42 billion First Eagle Global Fund (SGENX). "What you'll find is that the amount of whatever it is that we're collecting never becomes large enough to do too much damage to the portfolio," Brooker told Insider. Those first two points are often prioritized by managers seeking quality stocks, but fewer fund managers target those latter two attributes. Fund managers should carefully consider a stock's long-term outlook instead of simply whether or not it diversifies and lowers the volatility of a portfolio.

Those returns would come from "great trading opportunities", including placing long and short bets on Chinese equities, said Man Group CEO Luke Ellis, without giving any details. "I think the alpha opportunities in China are very attractive," Ellis told Reuters on Thursday, referring to the potential to generate returns that are higher than market benchmark gains. "We've been able to generate good alpha in the Chinese market. With China gradually opening up its markets to foreign investors, Ellis sees the potential for Man Group to expand its operations in that country when it relaxes its stringent COVID-induced border controls. Man Group launched a Chinese domestic private fund unit in 2017 that currently runs one fund with a macro strategy.

☆ Britain to go it alone for now on reining in 'shadow banking'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Britain hopes the LDI crisis creates momentum for comprehensive global reform to improve data and liquidity in the sector. In Britain the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulates UK-based managers of LDI funds, and The Pensions Regulator (TPR) regulates pension schemes. UK regulators face pushing ahead alone, for now, hoping global reforms eventually pressure others to follow suit. Most LDI funds are listed in European Union states like Luxembourg and Ireland, meaning structural changes would rely on the bloc. The Central Bank of Ireland said it has stepped up data collection, analysis and engagement with LDI funds.

Chinese equities make up 31% of the MSCI Emerging Market index (.MIEF00000PUS), a popular stock index that many funds track and benchmark their performances against. Fund research firm Morningstar tracks nine new emerging market ex-China equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that were created this year, matching the number of launches in total over the previous two years. If Aubrey was to remove China from its emerging market strategy, the Indian market would take a significant portion, while the rest will be spread around other countries including Vietnam, Brazil and Mexico, he said. OUTFLOWSAndrew McCaffery, Fidelity International's global chief investment officer, said they have received increased requests from clients for emerging markets excluding China strategies, although the purpose was to “break China out as an allocation separately within global portfolios”. “The challenge is that they (global investors) are not going to be quick to add back in,” he said.

☆ Global equity funds receive inflows for first time in 10 weeks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 28 (Reuters) - Global equity funds attracted money inflows in the week ended Oct. 26, bolstered by expectations the Federal Reserve would slow its pace of rate hikes to counter the economic slowdown. According to Refinitiv Lipper data, investors bought a net $7.8 billion worth of global equity funds in the week, after ditching them in the previous nine weeks. U.S. equity funds obtained $7.9 billion, while Asian equity funds received $2.1 billion. On the other hand, European equity funds faced net sales of $2.3 billion during the week, the data showed. The data showed global money market funds received inflows worth $18.6 billion, its fourth consecutive weekly inflow.

☆ EXCLUSIVE KKR raises $6 bln for biggest Asia infrastructure fund -sources
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HOTBED FOR DEALSLike the debut infrastructure fund that made more than a dozen investments, KKR's latest one will target renewables, telecom towers, power, utilities and transportation infrastructure, among others, the sources said. This year alone, funds backed by the likes of KKR, Macquarie, infrastructure investors DigitalBridge (DBRG.N) and Stonepeak have struck deals for tens of thousands of telecom towers in the Philippines. Earlier this month, a top executive at Permodalan Nasional Bhd, Malaysia's largest asset manager, told Reuters that it plans to add infrastructure assets into its portfolio from 2023. Last year, 19 Asia Pacific-focused infrastructure funds raised a total of $10.3 billion, Preqin data showed. Last month, Neil Arora, a veteran infrastructure dealmaker from Macquarie, joined KKR as the head of its energy transition team for Asia Pacific.

☆ Tuberculosis deaths rose during pandemic, reversing years of decline, WHO says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Bhanvi Satija | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 27 (Reuters) - Global deaths from tuberculosis are estimated to have increased between 2019 and 2021, reversing years of decline as the COVID-19 pandemic severely derailed efforts to tackle the disease, the World Health Organization said on Thursday. Global efforts to tackle deadly diseases such as AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria have suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO urged the world to apply lessons learnt from the pandemic to tuberculosis, which severely affects countries such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Pakistan. WHO’s annual TB report estimates that tuberculosis killed 1.6 million people in 2021, above the estimated 1.5 million deaths in 2020, and 1.4 million deaths in 2019. Under its "End TB Strategy", the WHO set a target of reducing TB deaths by 35% from 2015 to 2020, but the net reduction was 5.9% between 2015 and 2021.

Societe Generale's contrarian strategist Albert Edwards said Britain's reawakening of the fabled 'bond vigilantes' would "reverberate around financial markets for years to come." And many read across to ebbing liquidity in U.S. Treasury markets for a take on Fed parameters this time around too. Bank of America's October survey of global fund managers, released on Tuesday, certainly backs that up. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Registerby Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD. Charts by Bank of America, Vincent Flasseur and Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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