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☆ India July inflation likely breached RBI's 6% upper tolerance level - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That will hit the vast majority of India's population who make up the poor and middle classes. The Aug. 3-8 Reuters poll of 53 economists predicted the consumer price index (CPI) (INCPIY=ECI) rose at an annual rate of 6.40% in July. "There are no signs of any sequential moderation in food prices in August," noted Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays. If the poll median is correct, the current surge in inflation was likely to outstrip the 5.2% the RBI projects for this quarter. The survey also showed wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI), the change in producer prices, likely fell 2.70% year-on-year in July, after a 4.12% decline in June.

Persons: Rahul Bajoria, Kunal Kundu, Milounee Purohit, Devayani Sathyan, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Reserve Bank of India's, Barclays, Societe Generale, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, India

☆ Oil hedge funds place their bets on heat-fueled hurricane season
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Gasoline prices usually rise ahead of the U.S. summer driving season. Money managers in the week to Aug. 1 boosted their net long holdings of NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures to the highest since late February 2022. HEDGE FUND-FUELED TURNAROUNDGasoline futures have risen around 14% this year, compared with a roughly 2% rise for U.S. crude futures . To guarantee a profit, they need the rise in gasoline prices to be sustained until hurricane activity is confirmed. But for gasoline to continue its rise against the price of crude oil, there needs to be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, they said.

Persons: Liz Hampton, Tom Kloza, Vincent Elbhar, Eliot Geller, Brent Belote, Cayler, Belote, Arion, Nell Mackenzie, Laura Sanicola, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Liz Hampton LONDON, Gulf Coasts, Silicon Valley, Societe Generale, Reuters, Money, Futures Trading Commission, Reuters Graphics, El, Oil Price Information Service, CTA, Investment, Commodity, Fund, Aspect, CoreCommodity Management, CoreCommodity, Barclays, JP, Cayler, Thomson Locations: Loco Hills, New Mexico, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Gulf of Mexico, United States, Gulf, Silicon, Gulf Coast, Mexico, Europe, Hurricanes, Washington

☆ Banks Fined $549 Million Over Use of WhatsApp and Other Messaging Apps
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Matthew Goldstein | More About Matthew Goldstein | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Federal regulators continued their crackdown against employees of Wall Street firms using private messaging apps to communicate, with 11 brokerage firms and investment advisers agreeing Tuesday to pay $549 million in fines. The latest round of fines adds to the nearly $2 billion in penalties against big Wall Street banks announced last year for similar violations. In all, the regulators have now penalized more than two dozen banks and investment firms for not properly policing employees use of “off channel” messaging services like WhatsApp, iMessage and Signal. charged the financial institutions for failing to properly “maintain and preserve” all official communications by their employees. Federal securities laws require banks and investments firms to maintain records and make sure their employees are not conducting company business using unauthorized means of communication.

Persons: Wells, Société Organizations: Wall Street, BNP, Bank of Montreal, Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Locations: Wells Fargo, Société Générale

WASHINGTON, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators on Tuesday hit another batch of Wall Street firms with $549 million in civil penalties over widespread record-keeping failures related to employees' use of personal text messages and other messaging apps. Eleven firms, including Wells Fargo Securities and BNP Paribas Securities Corp, have agreed to pay $289 million in fines to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to resolve the allegations. Regulators require broker dealers and investment advisers to keep certain work-related communications, but Wall Street dealers have increasingly used personal devices in recent years. Spokespeople for BNP, which agreed to pay $110 million to the regulators, and Mizuho, which agreed to pay $25 million to the SEC, declined to comment. The regulators have already fined units of JPMorgan Chase and Co (JPM.N), Barclays, Bank of America and others for similar record-keeping failures.

Persons: Wells, Société, Spokespeople, Gurbir Grewal, Chris Prentice, Susan Heavey, Nivedita Balu, Nupur Anand, Saeed Azhar, Bernadette Baum, Jason Neely Organizations: Wall Street, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, BNP Paribas Securities Corp, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Futures Trading, BNP, Bank of Montreal, Wedbush Securities Inc, Wall, SEC, CFTC, Mizuho, Nikko Securities, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Bank of America, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Nikko, New York, Washington, Toronto

☆ Regulators fine Wall Street firms $549 million for using WhatsApp and other channels to discuss business
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

New York CNN —Wells Fargo and a slew of other Wall Street firms admitted Tuesday to using WhatsApp, Signal and other messaging platforms for “off-channel” communications in violation of federal recordkeeping requirements. The Securities and Exchange Commission said the Wall Street firms acknowledged wrongdoing and have agreed to pay penalties totaling $289 million. The SEC said the firms violated federal securities laws by failing to maintain or preserve the “substantial majority” of these communications. Another regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, also fined four of the same Wall Street firms for failing to maintain records and failing to supervise matters related to their businesses. The CFTC hit Bank of Montreal with a $35 million fine and a $75 million fine each for BNP Paribas, Societe Generale and Wells Fargo.

Persons: Wells, Houlihan Lokey, ” Sanjay Wadhwa Organizations: New, New York CNN, Securities, Exchange Commission, Wall Street, SEC, BNP, SG Americas, BMO Capital Markets, Mizuho Securities, SMBC Nikko Securities, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Bank of Montreal, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, SMBC Nikko Securities America, WhatsApp

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationBENGALURU, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies over the coming three months as a resilient domestic economy bolsters expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. The dollar is unlikely to give up recent gains in coming months, according to the July 31-Aug. 2 Reuters poll of 70 FX strategists, which showed most major currencies would not reclaim their recent highs for at least six months. In response to an additional question, 27 of 40 FX strategists said net short USD positions would either not change much or decrease over the coming month, suggesting the dollar would be rangebound. Typically, these conditions often coincide with a more negative dollar outlook," said Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global FX at Goldman Sachs. At this point in time I wouldn't say so," said ECB President Christine Lagarde last week after delivering a widely anticipated 25 basis points (bps) rate increase.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Christine Lagarde, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Shrivastava, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, greenback, Federal Reserve, Central Bank, Fed, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of England, bps, Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan

☆ SocGen beats second quarter estimates on cost control, car leasing unit
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Societe Generale , France's third-biggest listed bank, reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Thursday, as cost management and a strong growth of its car leasing division alleviated a steep fall in margins at its retail branch. SocGen reported a 900 million-euro, or $984 million, group net income for the three months-period ending in June, above the average analyst estimate compiled by the company of 670 million euros. The beat was also underpinned by lower-than-expected "cost of risk" — money set aside for failing loans — of 166 million euros in the second quarter, while the markets expected more than twice that figure, or 430 million euros. "The cost of risk was very low, reflecting the quality of our origination and our loan portfolio," said Chief Executive Slawomir Krupa, who was unveiling his first quarterly results in his new role. The bank, which confirmed its full-year objectives, didn't mention longer-term targets, as all eyes are now set on Sept. 18, when Krupa and his new executive team will present a strategic plan.

Persons: Slawomir Krupa, Krupa Organizations: Generale Locations: Russia

The beat was underpinned by much lower-than-expected "cost of risk" - money set aside for failing loans - of 166 million euros. Analysts had expected 430 million euros. Dubbed a "year of transition" by Krupa's predecessor Frederic Oudea, 2023 is also marked by a severe downturn at SocGen's French retail banking division, fresh from a merger of its two local networks. The second quarter was also affected by negative exceptional items of 240 million euros, which Credit Suisse analysts said were tied to "legacy legal disputes". Retail banking outside France fared better, as did SocGen's car leasing division ALD Automotive (ALDA.PA), whose sales jumped by more than 17% thanks to the acquisition of rival LeasePlan.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Krupa, Slawomir Krupa, France's, Jefferies, Frederic Oudea, Intesa, LeasePlan, SocGen, Mathieu Rosemain, Augustin Turpin, Ingrid Melander, Mark Potter Organizations: Societe Generale, La Defense, REUTERS, Royal Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Credit Suisse, Retail, ALD Automotive, Thomson Locations: French, Courbevoie, Paris, France, PARIS, Russia

☆ Societe Generale returns to profit, but comes under pressure in its home market
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Societe Generale returned to profit in the second quarter of this year, but lower revenues in France and broader global banking challenges dragged down its performance. However, revenues in French retail banking dropped by 13.6% from a year ago, off the back of lower net interest margins — a crucial indicator of banks' profitability. Revenues in the global banking division fell by 7.3% on lower volumes and weaker volatility. Fixed income and currencies (FIC) activities were down by 18.4%, "amid less conducive market conditions due to weaker interest rate and currency volatility," the bank sad in a statement. Group revenues contracted due to the decline in the net interest margin in France and in market activities' revenues against a backdrop of gradual normalisation after some particularly favourable years."

Persons: Slawomir Krupa Organizations: Generale Locations: France, Russia

While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Aussie set for biggest one-day drop since March, yen at 3-week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Aussie fell 1.4% to $0.6626, wiping out the 0.87% gains it clocked in July and set for its sharpest daily drop since March. "I think it was right that the RBA held today, given trimmed mean inflation and unemployment matched the RBA's forecasts. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0975, not too far from an almost three-week low touched on Friday. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.

Persons: David Gray, Matt Simpson, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan's, City, Federal, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore

☆ Nomura's crypto arm wins Dubai licence
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - The crypto arm of Japanese investment bank and brokerage Nomura (8604.T) said on Tuesday it had won an operating licence in Dubai, the latest in a number of mainstream financial institutions this year to enter the crypto sector. Laser Digital, which is headquartered in Switzerland with officers in Dubai and London, said in a statement it had received the licence from Dubai's Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority, allowing it to offer crypto-related broker-dealer, management and investment services. Laser said it would launch its trading and asset management business in the coming months, allowing institutional investors access to over-the-counter crypto trading and other investment products. French bank Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) became last month the first company in France to obtain a licence for crypto services, underscoring resilient hunger among mainstream banks to embrace crypto as markets have rallied through 2023. Reporting by Tom Wilson, Editing by Louise HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Nomura, Tom Wilson, Louise Heavens Organizations: Laser, Regulatory, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Dubai, Switzerland, London, France

Analysts point to receding recession concerns and the prospect of a less aggressive policy stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve as factors fuelling hopes for a broader market rally. The second quarter earnings season has started positively for cyclical sectors, with over a quarter of the global companies announcing their results so far, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. "The upcoming earnings season has the potential to broaden the rally for sure. However, there are plenty of laggards especially in cyclical sectors such as financials and consumer discretionary, which are available at attractive valuations, analysts say. Over the past month, the communication services, mining and financial sectors have all posted about 5% gains, outpacing the tech sector's modest 2% rise.

Persons: Puneet Singh, Singh, Alastair Pinder, Derek Izuel, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Noel Randewich, Vidya Ranganathan, Alison Williams Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Societe Generale, Carnival Corp, Equity, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Royce, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HSBC Research, Shelton Capital Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Singapore, Asia, Europe, California

☆ 'People give up on recession just as it arrives': Don't count out an economic downturn just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Despite solid economic data, some Wall Street strategists are sticking with their gloomy outlook for the economy and stocks. But don't count out a decline just yet: "People give up on recession just as it arrives." Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Société GénéraleEdwards isn't the only bear on Wall Street. And as Edwards highlighted, a decline in profits usually leads to an uptick in layoffs, which could ultimately hurl this economy into a recession.

Persons: Albert Edwards, Greedflation, Edwards, Société Générale Edwards, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Service, Survey, Loan, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

But it was the repeated use of the word holistic - or "bütüncül" - by the former Goldman Sachs banker and Turkey's first female central bank chief that caught most of the attention. "We are making the gradual and steady rate hikes more holistic and stronger through quantitative tightening and selective credit tightening," Erkan told the news conference. "Unless the credit and monetary tightening really kick in, investors would expect the central bank to hike more aggressively," he said. "She clearly wants to be the face of Turkish monetary policy making," said Neuberger Berman's Nazli. "We saw a person who seems to be capable of being a central bank governor, compared to previous governors, but cautious."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's, Kaan Nazli, Neuberger Berman, policymaker Mehmet Simsek, Tim Ash, Erdogan, Ash, Marek Drimal, Neuberger Berman's Nazli, swerved, Emre Akcakmak, Karin Strohecker, Libby George, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Turkey's, Ministry, BlueBay Asset Management, Societe Generale, East Capital, Thomson Locations: Rosario, London

LONDON, July 26 (Reuters) - Even as fears of a 2023 U.S. recession recede and stock market bears concede defeat, there's scant sign of party mode. After wild swings of output, prices, employment, liquidity and interest rates, firm convictions about the precise onset of "technical" recessions - or even previously reliable gauges of bull and bear markets - have all become a bit suspect. Whether on a domestic or global scale, aggregate views of the economy, or stock market, right now are likely misleading. A bull to bear market and back again in little over 18 months - or so it seems. SP 500 2023 YTD THROUGH JULY 21BLUNTEDChief among the puzzles is the variable impact of sharply higher interest rates on both households and firms.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Morgan Stanley, Andrew Lapthorne, Russell, Mike Dolan Organizations: Reuters Graphics, Barclays, International Monetary Fund, Tuesday, eventual, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Generale, Fed, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, midyear

☆ BNP Paribas facing potential fine as it resolves U.S. messaging probe
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, July 27 (Reuters) - BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) is set to resolve a U.S. probe into employees' use of unapproved messaging platforms, its mid-year earnings report showed on Thursday, which could see the French bank face a fine. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) later also examined the issue, bank disclosures showed. BNP set aside 125 million euros ($139 million) for an unspecified litigation in its earning report. "The proposed resolutions are subject to finalisation by the CFTC and SEC," BNP, the euro zone's biggest bank, added. French rival Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) said earlier this year that it, too, had been drawn into the probe.

Persons: Mathieu Rosemain, Jason Neely Organizations: BNP, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Societe Generale, Britain's HSBC, Thomson Locations: U.S, French

☆ Inflation will keep moderating so Fed won't raise rates after today, says Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will keep moderating so Fed won't raise rates after today, says Moody's Mark ZandiEmily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the upcoming decision from the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Mark Zandi Emily Roland, John, Subadra, Mark Zandi Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management, Societe Generale, Federal Reserve

That will leave investors guessing whether another rate hike is coming in September or if July marks the end of the ECB's fastest-ever tightening spree. While markets had fully priced in another rate hike just a few weeks ago, investors are now split, with many expecting July's move to be the last. "We see a 60% probability that the ECB will hike again by a final 25bp on 14 September," Berenberg's Salomon Fiedler said. "Softer data such as the drop in the Eurozone composite PMI indicate a rising chance that the central bank will stay put in September already." This is a key reason why the balance of expectations has started to shift away from another rate hike, with economists increasingly focusing on how long rates will stay high.

Persons: July's, Berenberg's Salomon Fiedler, Isabel Schnabel, Jerome Powell, Anatoli Annenkov, Christine Lagarde, Commerzbank's Marco Wagner, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, PMI, U.S . Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT

BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinize more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing the policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call. The dollar gained 1.24% to 141.81 yen , after earlier reaching 141.95, the highest since July 10. The greenback is on track for its best weekly percentage gain against the Japanese currency since October at 2.22%. The pound is on track for a 1.75% weekly fall, its largest since early February.

Persons: Edward Moya, Moya, Kenneth Broux, Broux, Masato Kanda, Jerome Powell, Powell, Scherrmann, Karen Brettell, Iain Withers, Angus MacSwan, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: YORK, Reuters, Bank of Japan, FX, Societe Generale, Ministry of Finance, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Europe, New York, United States, U.S, London

☆ Yen slides after sources say Bank of Japan leaning to holding key policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Iain Withers | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BoJ policymakers prefer to scrutinise more data to ensure wages and inflation keep rising before changing the policy, five sources familiar with the matter said. The report added there was no consensus within the central bank and the decision could still be a close call. The dollar was heading for its biggest one-day gain versus the yen since April, rising as much as 1.3% to a nearly two-week high of 141.95. Prior to the report, the dollar had been up around 0.3% versus the yen. The dollar index - which tracks the greenback against six major peers including the yen - was last up 0.3% at 101.040.

Persons: Kenneth Broux, Broux, Kazuo Ueda, Masato Kanda, Scherrmann, Iain Withers, Ankur Banerjee, Angus MacSwan, David Holmes Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, Trade, FX, Societe Generale, Ministry of Finance, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, U.S, Singapore

ORLANDO, Florida, July 20 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks have traded at a discount to global peers for over a decade but have rarely been cheaper than they are now. The fact that U.S. equities are more expensive than Chinese stocks is nothing new. At minimum, investors will need clearer evidence of a turnaround in China's economic and market conditions before moving back into its equities in any great size. The era of double-digit annual GDP growth looks to be over, and challenges are multiple and mounting. Nominal annual GDP growth of 4.8% in the second quarter was lower than real GDP growth of 6.3%, a huge deflation red flag.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, China's, Zhang Zhiwei, Zhang Dandan, Jamie McGeever, Jamie Freed Organizations: Nasdaq, NYSE, Monetary Fund, Citi, Bank of America, Societe Generale, Peking University, Wall, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, China, United States, U.S, Beijing, India

HONG KONG/TAIPEI, July 21 (Reuters) - Investors are putting aside geopolitical tensions to pile in to Taiwan stocks, with foreign inflows the biggest in years, thanks to soaring artificial intelligence and chipmaking stocks. Rather, investors say it's all the more sturdy as the bogged-down conflict deters Chinese action and risks can be managed by keeping positions liquid with one eye on a possibly quick exit. "A potential escalation of events in the Taiwan Strait down the line is less relevant for these investors," he said. "So that makes Taiwan’s AI supply chain very attractive for foreign investors, and we believe their fund inflows will continue to be strong throughout the year." Investors say Taiwan's market is uniquely positioned to benefit because it is exposed to the sector's growth from applications to components, where demand is rebounding.

Persons: Carlos Casanova, Warren Buffett, we've, Frank Benzimra, Hai, Andrew Swan, Goldman Sachs, Clarence Chan, Summer Zhen, Kim Coghill Organizations: Nasdaq, Union Bancaire, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Societe Generale ., Accton Technology, Hai Precision Industry, Wistron Corp, Alchip Technologies, Ark Investment Management, Vanguard, PineBridge Investments, Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, TAIPEI, Taiwan, Asia, Ukraine, Taiwan Strait, China, Taipei, Japan, PineBridge Investments Asia, Alchip, Asia Pacific, Hong Kong

☆ 'Something very strange' explains why a US recession has been delayed
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Something very strange has happened" in the economy that is preventing a recession, Societe Generale said. The bank highlighted that as the Fed raised interest rates over the past year, corporate net interest payments actually fell. According to Societe Generale, "something very strange has happened" that explains why a US recession has been delayed, and it has to do with some timely moves made by corporations. The bank highlighted that going back to at least 1975, corporate net interest payments would rise as the Fed raised interest rates. "Normally when interest rates rise, so too do net debt payments, squeezing profit margins and slowing the economy.

Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, SocGen's Edwards, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale's, Bank of America, Companies Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Wall Street on ice ahead of big tech earnings, UK shines
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Tech stocks have been boosted by exuberance about artificial intelligence as well as hopes the Federal Reserve will soon end the aggressive interest rate rises that bludgeoned valuations of more speculative businesses in 2022. Owning big tech is also the "most crowded" trade in global markets, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned in a note to clients this week. This was just the latest downside surprise on prices for a major economy after more than 18 months of central banks cranking interest rates higher. Sterling lost 0.96% to trade at $1.291 as market bets that the Bank of England would raise interest rates as high as 6%, from the current 5%, faded out. London's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) added 1.6% and the domestically focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) rose 3.2%, on track for its best daily performance since February 2.

Persons: Sterling, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA, Stuart Kaiser, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, BoE, Samuel Tombs, Kenneth Broux, Germany's, Tom Westbrook, Bernadette Baum, Kim Coghill, Chizu Organizations: Stock, Wall, Tesla, Netflix, Nasdaq, Tech, Reserve, Bank of America, Citi, Bank of England, Macroeconomics, Sterling, . Federal, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: London, Sydney

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