Top related persons:
Top related locs:
Top related orgs:

Search resuls for: "FiveThirtyEight"


25 mentions found


The stock market could be poised for big upside ahead if Republicans win Congress in today's midterm election. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress," Carson Group's Ryan Detrick said. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress. Under a Democratic president, the S&P 500 saw average annual returns of 16.2% when Republicans controlled both chambers on Congress. Regardless of Tuesday's election results, the stock market has plenty of more favorable seasonals going for it into year-end, according to Detrick.
Trump wanted to announce a 2024 bid on Monday, right before midterm voting, per The Washington Post. Aides successfully persuaded him not to, fearing it'd upend the election, its report said. Trump is now expected to announce a 2024 bid on November 15. Other aides, it reported, wanted Trump to go ahead. (Axios last week reported that Nov. 14 would be the date when Trump would likely announce his candidacy.)
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on November 02, 2022 in New York City. To be sure, markets and investors care about elections – just not as much as many think. Still, it's interesting that stocks have typically done well in the aftermath of midterm elections. Clarity mattersTo be sure, businesses and investors have policy preferences, with most preferring lower taxes and fewer regulations. Gridlock is goodOne argument for why stock gains could be more than just transitory is that this election is unlikely to produce a unified government.
Kathy Hochul's top donors are privately panicking about Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin's recent surge in the polls ahead of Tuesday's midterms, according to people familiar with the matter. One Democratic advisor, who counts numerous Hochul donors as clients, said he's having "PTSD" as he sees Zeldin closing in on Hochul in the polls. Bragg has been criticized, often by GOP officials, for the uptick in crime in New York City. Zeldin said at the debate that his first initiative if he becomes governor is to remove Bragg from office. Hochul told Zeldin at the time "you can't throw out someone who is duly elected."
Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz are facing off for US Senate in Pennsylvania. Fetterman's health has become a focal point of the race after he suffered a stroke in May. Donald Trump Jr. mocked Fetterman on Sunday, saying he doesn't have "a working brain." Fetterman's health has been a major focal point during the race and many GOP figures, including Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, have mocked him for it. The Oz campaign has also repeatedly questioned Fetterman's ability to serve and insisted he provides a regular update on his health.
2020 boundaries Miami Beach Detail Miami Kendall 2022 boundaries The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. 2020 boundaries 2022 boundaries The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. Miami Beach Detail Miami Miami Kendall Kendall Miami Beach, which largely voted for President Biden, is now part of another district. 2020 boundaries 2022 boundaries Florida Florida The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. Detail Miami Beach Miami Miami Kendall Kendall Miami Beach, which largely voted for President Biden, is now part of another district.
Cory Booker says that Democrats have a strong chance to control the Senate. "The reality is we still have a very strong pathway," Booker told ABC News. During an appearance on ABC's "This Week," host Martha Raddatz asked Booker about a recent FiveThirtyEight poll that predicts that Republicans have a 55% chance of taking control. "That this is the party at the end of the day that's trying to protect fundamental freedoms like the right to control your own body. So I think this a tough elections season ... but I still see a pathway for us to maintain control of the Senate."
Election deniers who challenged the 2020 presidential election are influencing the 2022 midterms. Organizing efforts to reach voters directlyState by state, election deniers are already having an impact on the ground. Election deniers on the ballotDozens upon dozens of election deniers are also running for office in the midterms — many of whom Trump has endorsed. Nearly 300 election deniers are running for public office with 171 expected to be victorious on election night, according to The Washington Post. Mario Tama/Getty ImagesMany election deniers are running for seats in Congress while others are running in significant statewide races.
"I can go down the list and check things: incumbency, check Wild; inflation, check Scheller; district reconfiguration, check Scheller; abortion issue, check Wild." The Pennsylvania Senate race is also hotly contestedWith the Republican Toomey retiring, CNN projected Pennsylvania could flip; NPR agreed, saying it's the "most likely Senate seat to change hands." Chen said that Oz is "continuing to close on" Fetterman, though, because Pennsylvania voters, "especially in the Lehigh Valley, are willing to split their tickets." That poll showed 34% of surveyed voters listed inflation as their most important issue in the election, followed by 28% of surveyed voters who named abortion. "Those are all issues that if we don't maintain a United States Senate, control of the United States Senate, I think this country could be really in danger," Halma said.
PoliticsTexas has the most election deniers running for officePostedTexas has more political candidates rejecting the 2020 election results running for Congress or statewide offices than any other U.S. state, according to a nationwide FiveThirtyEight survey. Julia Sun has more details.
The Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade this summer pushed Pennsylvania women to action. Fetterman, have worked to keep abortion rights in the conversation. "The future of abortion rights and women's freedom is on the line in this race," Fetterman wrote in a letter he posted online on October 30. Canvasser Toth said she's encountered supporters across generations, billing women and men in their 20s as "very engaged" on abortion rights. Toth told Insider, adding that the 27-year-old woman said, "It's hard to think about any other issue until this one is addressed."
Biden termed Republicans a threat to US democracy, further raising the stakes before the midterms. In Arizona, Obama said Republican candidates were poised to trash the state's democracy. —The New York Times (@nytimes) November 2, 2022At a rally in Phoenix, Arizona, Wednesday, former president Barack Obama echoed those points. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who is poised to become House speaker if Republicans win back control of the chamber, accused Biden of fostering division with his remarks. "President Biden is trying to divide and deflect at a time when America needs to unite - because he can't talk about his policies that have driven up the cost of living," he said.
WASHINGTON — One week from Election Day, the race for Senate control remains neck and neck in an unusually volatile political environment, with small margins carrying high stakes for the future of President Joe Biden's legislative agenda and judicial nominees. Kyle Kondik, an election analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the battle for the Senate looks like a coin-flip. “Polling for the Senate is still real close in a lot of these states.”The Senate is split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote giving Democrats control. The FiveThirtyEight Senate projection is dead even, giving both Republicans and Democrats 50% chances of winning control. A perception that GOP control would threaten democracy is also motivating liberal-leaning voters.
Polls show issues like climate change and abortion are important but the economy may be the driving factor in a state that is one of the poorest in the country and also a top global oil producer. First-term Republican incumbent Yvette Herrell is known as a defender of the Permian Basin oil and gas sector, a region she represents. RIO GRANDE RUNS DRYSome voters in West Side and South Valley Albuquerque areas believe fossil-fuel-driven climate change is harming their quality of life and the livelihoods of farmers. Vasquez has been hit with attack ads saying his policies will cost the state tens of thousands of oil and gas jobs. Herrell, a target of the League of Conservation Voters and other green groups, said New Mexico's emission controls meant the state's oil and gas industry was far cleaner than foreign competitors and did not contribute to climate change.
Hauser is originally from Wisconsin and moved to North Carolina seven years ago for work. And questions over abortion rights are fueling concerns about the future of access to birth control and gender-affirming care. The North Carolina Business Council, for one, declined to comment because this is "not an area of focus" for the group. Chuck Bryan is an IT professional who moved to North Carolina from Florida five years ago. He cited Kansas' referendum to preserve abortion rights as an example of what can happen when people use their voice in politics.
Elon Musk is reportedly considering making people pay $20 per month to stay verified on Twitter. Author Stephen King tweeted that he'll quit the site if that idea is implemented. King tweeted on Monday that he would leave Twitter if the plan is implemented. "$20 a month to keep my blue check? Musk's first few days as Twitter owner have been messy, beyond public figures saying they would leave the site.
Former President Obama mocked GOP "birtherism" while boosting Mandela Barnes' Wisconsin Senate bid. During a Friday rally, Obama mocked Republican campaign attempts to paint Barnes as "different." Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin's high-stakes Senate race. Johnson is currently averaging a 3.4% lead over Barnes on FiveThirtyEight using data from the most recent polls. Tony Evers, who is up for reelection this fall against Republican businessman Tim Michels, defeated two-term GOP Gov.
PORTLAND—Oregonians might choose a Republican governor for the first time in 40 years, polls show, as voters look for new leadership to take on homelessness and crime and a well-funded independent candidate complicates the race. Former Democratic state House Speaker Tina Kotek and former state House GOP leader Christine Drazan are running evenly at just under 39%, according to the polling average on the website FiveThirtyEight.
PORTLAND—Oregonians might choose a Republican governor for the first time in 40 years, polls show, as voters look for new leadership to take on homelessness and crime and a well-funded independent candidate complicates the race. Former Democratic state House Speaker Tina Kotek and former state House GOP leader Christine Drazan are running evenly at just under 39%, according to the polling average on the website FiveThirtyEight.
Chuck Schumer was caught on a hot mic dishing about Democrats' chances of holding the Senate. Schumer was overheard telling Biden that Georgia looks increasingly bad for the party. "The state where we're going downhill is Georgia," Schumer said of Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock's highly charged reelection bid. The top Senate Democrat was also overheard telling Biden that Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. "Schumer believes the Democratic candidates will win," Justin Goodmnan, a Schumer spokesperson, said in a statement.
However, the first two years of Biden's presidency proved one-party control of Congress and the White House does not mean the president gets what he wants. Any impeachment would then progress to a trial in the Senate, where a Democratic majority is likely to shut it down. The Senate Majority Leader, picked from the party that holds a majority of the Senate's 100 seats, decides what the chamber votes on, or never considers. Republicans likely would push hard for deep domestic spending cuts and making some tax cuts from the 2017 tax bill set to expire at the end of 2025 permanent. Whether a House Biden impeachment process proceeds to a Senate trial would rest on the shoulders of the Senate Majority Leader, likely to be Kentucky's Mitch McConnell.
Anyone on his team who agreed to a debate should be fired, or never work again, because that debate may have tanked his campaign,” said Chris Kofinis, a veteran Democratic campaign strategist. John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, debates Republican challenger Mehmet Oz on Tuesday. And Fetterman’s campaign, eager to project strength, said Wednesday that it had raised $2 million since the debate ended“There’s always second-guessing,” Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., said on MSNBC Wednesday. Fetterman’s debate performance took some Republicans by surprise, too. But another top Pennsylvania Democrat, who believes Fetterman’s debate performance was devastating and requested anonymity to offer candid thoughts on the party’s nominee, fears the race is over.
LAS VEGAS—Nevada Republicans stand in their strongest position in years, as polls show them with a solid chance to win multiple midterm races in a state where high prices on everything from gasoline to rent are driving voters away from Democrats. The state’s top Democrats, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Gov. Steve Sisolak , are essentially tied with their respective GOP challengers, Adam Laxalt and Clark County Sheriff Joseph Lombardo , according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll averages. Multiple recent surveys of the state show the two Republicans with leads in the low single digits, and Ms. Cortez Masto is considered by strategists in both parties to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the 50-50 Senate.
John Fetterman's campaign said Wednesday it raised more than $1 million in just three hours following the Democratic Senate candidate's debate with his Republican rival, Dr. Mehmet Oz. The "unprecedented" haul demonstrates "deep grassroots enthusiasm" for Fetterman, his campaign said. "It's clear that the people of Pennsylvania have John's back in this race," Fetterman campaign manager Brendan McPhillips said in a press release announcing the post-debate fundraising windfall. Each candidate also repeatedly accused the other of lying, echoing the aggressively rancorous tone that has defined the pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race for months. Fetterman and Oz are competing to succeed GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, who is retiring at the end of the term.
Pennsylvania Senate Democratic hopeful John Fetterman and his Republican rival Dr. Mehmet Oz came out of the gate swinging Tuesday night in their only debate just two weeks before Election Day. Fetterman, the state's lieutenant governor, in his opening statement said that if Oz "is on TV, he's lying," calling it "the Oz rule." The Democrat is recovering from a stroke he suffered in May and used closed-captioning during the debate. The hourlong debate in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, comes as Oz, the celebrity doctor endorsed by Trump, has closed his polling deficit with Fetterman in the final weeks of the race. The Oz campaign, aided by tens of millions of dollars from Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell's PAC, has bombarded Fetterman with ads accusing him of being soft on crime and too far left for Pennsylvania.
Total: 25