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☆ The Fed is winning its war on inflation — and it means America could avoid a painful recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's a slowdown from the February's 6.0% reading, and it shows the Fed's war on inflation is working. That 5.0% inflation rate is the lowest since May 2021. While the Fed isn't planning on cutting interest rates this year, the latest economic data is a hint that a pause could be on the horizon. The bank's collapse amplified Powell critics' calls to pause interest rate hikes because of the economic uncertainty the debacle prompted. That along with too-high shelter and core inflation possibly keeping the Fed in a rate-hiking mindset means a recession isn't completely off the books.

☆ Premarket stocks: Main Street investors bet on comeback for regional banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Forget the banking crisis — Main Street’s retail investors have barreled into embattled bank stocks. At the same time, he said, institutional investors, the so-called “smart money,” have been trading out of volatile regional bank stocks. That could mean bad news for those who are betting they’ll see big returns on regional bank stocks. This is a risky move for retail investors, said Iachini, and a speculative play. We’re not seeing a meaningful recovery, at least yet, for regional bank stocks, he said.

☆ Fed official: Central bank should be ‘cautious’ in wake of banking turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —The banking crisis could help the Federal Reserve’s fight to bring down inflation, but the central bank needs to be “cautious” in its actions moving forward, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday. “At moments of financial stress like this, the right monetary policy is really caution and watchfulness and prudence,” he said. Currently, he added, there’s not conflict between monetary policy and potentially tightening credit conditions. Still, Goolsbee added, the Fed needs to be “on watch” for the possibility of tighter credit conditions. “If the response to these banking problems leads the financial industry to tighten on its own, that monetary policy has to do less,” he said.

☆ JetBlue is preparing to trim New York flights in response to FAA staffing shortage, CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Leslie Josephs | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The FAA cited its staffing shortfall. "We don't want to pull down flights. I'm sure no airline wants to pull down flights," Hayes said in an interview with CNBC ahead of an event at the Economic Club of New York. The staffing shortfall and potential schedule cuts in the region highlight the difficulty airlines have faced to ramp up capacity as travel demand returns in the wake of a pandemic lull. If weather is bad or there are other challenges, disruptions tend to cascade if airlines have packed their schedules with too many flights.

☆ 'The first bank crisis of the Twitter generation': The pressure on banks is very different from 2008
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

It is "unlikely" that European banks will undergo anything as serious as in 2008, according to economists. But a banking crisis today would look very different from 15 years ago thanks to social media, online banking, and huge shifts in regulation. This is "the first bank crisis of the Twitter generation," Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC earlier this month, in reference to the collapse of Credit Suisse . watch nowRegulators shuttered Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 in what was the biggest U.S. bank collapse since the global financial crisis in 2008. Risk in the banking system today is significantly less than it has been at any time over the last 20 or 30 years.

The index of top European banks (.SX7P) was down 1% in early trading, with German banking giants Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) both falling 0.8%. The rescue of Credit Suisse, which followed the collapses of California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) (SIVB.O) and New York-based Signature Bank (SBNY.O) ignited broader concerns about investors' exposure to a fragile banking sector. The decision to prioritise shareholders over Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bondholders rattled the $275 billion AT1 bond market and some Credit Suisse AT1 bondholders are seeking legal advice. "The AT1 instruments issued by Credit Suisse contractually provide that they will be completely written down in a 'viability event', in particular if extraordinary government support is granted," FINMA said. However, some watchers think the banking system is more vulnerable to rumour and rapid moves in an era of widespread social media use, posing a challenge for regulators trying to tamp down instability.

March 22 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N) CEO Jane Fraser on Wednesday expressed confidence in U.S. banks after a series of closures rattled investors and fueled turmoil in global financial markets. "The banking system is pretty sound," and large and regional banks are well-capitalized, Fraser told the Economic Club of Washington D.C. on Wednesday. "This is not a credit crisis. In the past two weeks, two U.S. banks collapsed, Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S) was taken over by Swiss rival UBS Group AG (UBSG.S) and America's biggest banks agreed to deposit $30 billion in another ailing firm, First Republic Bank (FRC.N). Reporting by Lananh Nguyen and Saeed Azhar; Editing by Sandra Maler and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ One year after the first rate hike, the Fed stands at policy crossroads
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"That being said, given the fact the Fed has tightened as aggressively as they have, the economy is still very good." But recent days have shown the Fed has another problem on its hands besides inflation. watch nowBecause prices fall when rates go up, the Fed hikes have cut into the market value of those fixed income holdings. Rate hike expected"If you're waiting for inflation to go back to 2% and that's what's caused you to raise rates, you're making a mistake," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. Since the rate increases started, depositors have pulled $464 billion from banks, according to Fed data.

While ostensibly focused on monetary policy, the questions tend to range across issues, and the sessions this week - the first since Republicans took control of the House after midterm elections - may be particularly wide in scope. Powell's last monetary policy report to Congress was in June, early in what became the most aggressive cycle of Fed rate increases since the 1980s. Fed rate hikes "are designed to harm the labor market. Despite some high-profile layoff announcements, weekly new jobless claims have remained below 200,000 for seven consecutive weeks, comparable to pre-pandemic levels. That ongoing strength has posed perhaps the key question for Powell to answer: Whether the impact of monetary policy is just delayed and on the way, or whether the current economy needs even tighter monetary policy, with all the risks that entails.

[1/2] U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks to David Rubenstein (not pictured) during a meeting of The Economic Club of Washington, at the Renaissance Hotel in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 7, 2023. REUTERS/Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/File PhotoMarch 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Arguably the main event in Asia will be the expected quarter point rate hike from the RBA, which would take the cash rate up to 3.60%. Tuesday's focus rests squarely on the first of two Congressional appearances this week from Powell. On the Asian data front, China's FX reserves for February could cast a light on whether Beijing is starting to reduce its huge holdings of dollar-denominated assets amid the sharp rise in U.S.-Chinese tensions.

☆ Salesforce is having its best day since 2020 after blowout earnings report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Jordan Novet | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Salesforce shares surged 12% on Thursday and headed for their biggest single-day rally since August 2020, after the cloud software vendor issued earnings and guidance that trounced analysts' estimates. After the close of regular trading on Wednesday, Salesforce reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.68 per share, 23% higher than the consensus among analysts polled by Refinitiv. Alongside the earnings report, Salesforce said it's working with Bain on a business review, and the company announced the elimination of the board's committee on mergers and acquisitions. Rangan, who recommends buying the stock, raised his 12-month price target for the second time in a week after the report. WATCH: Salesforce earnings highlight how expectation beats can move markets, says Kari Firestone

☆ Premarket stocks: Why traders are so infatuated with inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

What’s happening: Investors will get some market direction clarity on Tuesday morning with the release of key inflation data. It’s not all about the Fed: Traders are infatuated with CPI, but it’s likely going to affect markets more than it will future Fed policy. “CPI is the big inflation report that affects markets more than any other,” he said. Even beyond housing, the services sector has seen year-over-year inflation higher than 3.9% every month since March 2021, said Chaudhuri. And as Powell noted in Washington last week, the stickiness of core services inflation is his greatest concern.

☆ Inflation Is Falling, and Where It Lands Depends on These Three Things
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Gwynn Guilford | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The end of distressingly high inflation is coming into view. Consumer prices gained 6.5% in December, down from June’s 9.1% annual rate, the highest since 1981. There is good reason to think inflation will keep falling, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month. “The process of getting inflation down has begun,” Mr. Powell said at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

☆ Are we on the brink of a corporate credit crisis?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Economists at S&P Global Ratings forecast that speculative-grade (perceived to have a lower level of credit quality compared to more highly rated, investment-grade, companies) corporate default rates in the US and Europe will double this year alone. So are we on the brink of a corporate credit crisis? Before the Bell spoke with Ruth Yang, managing director and global head of thought leadership at S&P Global Ratings to discuss what lies ahead for the corporate credit market. Before the Bell: What’s your big picture view of the credit economy right now? There will be slower growth with thinner margins and that’s going to change how people look at their investment opportunities.

With a majority of S & P 500 companies having posted their quarterly results, investors' focus will turn toward inflation and the consumer price index reading in the upcoming week. The three major indexes are on pace to end the week down, with the S & P 500 poised to post its worst performance since December. Sharp declines for Alphabet , which is off by more than 9% this week, dragged the tech-heavy index. January's consumer price index With the latest Powell speech in the books, investors are now looking ahead to the consumer price index for insight into the pace of inflation. "Retail sales and CPI is really driven by the consumer, and a lot of eyes are on how the consumer doing," Bruno said.

☆ Swedish crown gains on c.bank forecast for more hikes, softer dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown rallied on Thursday after the country's central bank raised interest rates and forecast further tightening, while the dollar weakened against most other currencies alongside positive sentiment across markets. The dollar was last down 1.4% against the crown at 10.45 crowns and the euro was down 1.16% at 11.21, after the Riksbank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3%, and forecast more increases in the spring. The Swedish currency has been under pressure, having hit its weakest since 2009 against the euro earlier this week as markets bet the central bank will raise rates less aggressively than the European Central Bank due to domestic economic conditions. Markets are also digesting a series of remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers about the U.S. interest rate plans after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs data and ahead of next week's closely watched inflation numbers. Williams's comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was under way.

Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rallied against a backdrop of gains for U.S. equity futures and a more hawkish Reserve Bank. Investors will closely watch consumer price inflation data on Tuesday for additional clues on the policy outlook. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. "From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes," German central bank chief Joachim Nagel told the newspaper Boersen-Zeitung on Tuesday. His colleague Isabel Schnabel said it is not yet clear that the ECB rate hikes so far would bring inflation back to 2%.

Mortgage rates have increased slightly this week but are still relatively low compared to the highs we experienced in the second half of 2022. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.09%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.14%, a slight decrease from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data.

☆ Mortgage rates rise on inflation concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates rose this week after four weeks of declines, as a stronger-than-expected jobs report suggested the Federal Reserve would continue hiking its benchmark lending rate in its battle against inflation. After climbing for most of 2022, mortgage rates have been trending downward since November, as various economic indicators continue to show inflation may have peaked. The surprising number makes the Fed’s historic and aggressive efforts to cool the labor market and bring inflation down through rate hikes all the more complicated. “Mortgage rates are likely to continue moving up and down in a narrow range for the next few weeks,” said Ratiu. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country.

☆ Premarket stocks: Welcome to the 'rolling recession' economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Yet US manufacturing has likely already contracted into a recession, housing sales have plummeted, tech layoffs keep coming and corporate earnings growth is souring. “We continue to think the economy will suffer from rolling recessions, evidenced by the fact that corporate earnings growth is now entering its downturn,” wrote Sonders in a note on Wednesday. For five straight weeks, the bank’s clients have been big buyers of individual stocks and sellers of ETFs, she wrote. Disney revenue in the quarter rose 8% to $23.5 billion, edging past estimates of $23.4 billion from analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The company reported revenue of $8.6 billion for the quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimates and marking a 49% increase from the prior year.

☆ Dollar flat after Fed official comments; focus on CPI data next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar steadied just below recent peaks on Wednesday, as investors waited to hear from the Federal Reserve and pondered whether weak U.S. data may slow the pace of rate hikes. Williams' comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was underway. The Japanese yen weakened 0.11% to 131.54 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2064, down 0.06% on the day. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. Investor focus will now switch to the U.S. inflation data due next week on Tuesday.

☆ Dollar pulls back as Powell sticks to usual Fed playbook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar struggled to recover its losses in Asia trade on Wednesday, after slipping in the previous session as Powell spoke. Similarly, the euro was last 0.04% higher at $1.0732, after falling to $1.06695 in the previous session, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index steadied at 103.31, after slipping 0.3% in the previous session. Futures pricing shows that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by June. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen rose 0.16% to 130.88 per dollar, after surging 1.2% in the previous session.

☆ The stock market has runway to continue its rally until April - and then investors should expect to feel the pain of weak corporate earnings, veteran strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks will continue their rally until April - and then start feeling the pain of weak corporate earnings, Joe Terranova said. The veteran market strategist warned of the lagged effect of Fed rate hikes. "I think the market has a runway though leading up to the next earnings report." "I don't view the Federal Reserve right now as the adversary of the market," Terranova said, though he warned investors weren't completely in the clear. "The first half of the year is going to be better than the second half of the year," Terranova warned.

☆ Treasury yields decline as investors assess monetary policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One basis points is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 3.6490% after falling by more than two basis points. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was down by close to four basis points to 4.4334%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors assessed the monetary policy outlook after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's latest comments. The central bank has been implementing monetary policy measures including rate hikes in an effort to slow the economy and cool inflation.

☆ Premarket stocks: Here's what keeps Jerome Powell up at night and interest rates high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Structural changes in the labor market: The US economy added an astonishing 517,000 jobs in January, blowing economists’ expectations out of the water. “The labor market is extraordinarily strong,” he said. Core services inflation: Powell noted that he’s seeing disinflation in the goods sector and expects to soon see declining inflation in housing. Service-sector inflation, which is more sensitive to a strong labor market, is up 7.5% from the year prior through the end of 2022, and has not abated, he said. Tech layoffs, Big Oil and soft landings: What investors are watching▸ The labor market is strong, but tech layoffs keep coming.

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