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The Kremlin is considering options on bringing the private military group Wagner under its direct control after the presumed death of its leader, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, according to U.S. and Western officials. Among those possibilities, officials say, are absorbing Wagner into the Defense Ministry or its military intelligence arm. The Kremlin could also install a Russian general or other government ally as its new chief, according to people briefed on the preliminary intelligence. Still, U.S. officials said the Kremlin believes the organization’s military prowess, experienced operators and ties to African governments are too valuable to give up or allow to wither away. A plane believed to be carrying Mr. Prigozhin crashed on Wednesday, Russian, U.S. and European officials have said.

Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny V, Prigozhin, Vladimir V, Putin, Prigozhin’s Organizations: Defense Ministry, Kremlin, U.S Locations: Russian, Russia, Ukraine, U.S, Moscow

An explosion on a plane believed to be carrying the Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny V. Prigozhin likely brought down the aircraft on Wednesday, killing all the passengers aboard, according to U.S. and other Western officials citing preliminary intelligence. A definitive conclusion has not yet been reached, but a blast is the leading theory of what caused a private plane to crash in a field between Moscow and St. Petersburg. The explosion could have been caused by a bomb or other device planted on the aircraft, though other theories, like adulterated fuel, were also being explored, the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the matter, said. U.S. officials sounded increasingly certain, both publicly and privately, that Mr. Prigozhin was dead, and that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had ordered the killing, intent on removing a figure who had led a short-lived mutiny in June that was seen as the gravest challenge to Mr. Putin’s rule in decades. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said the initial U.S. assessment, based on a “variety of factors,” was that Mr. Prigozhin had likely been killed in the crash.

Persons: Yevgeny V, Prigozhin, Vladimir V, Putin, Putin’s, Patrick Ryder, ” Organizations: Pentagon Locations: Moscow, St . Petersburg, Russia, Brig

The plane that listed Mr. Prigozhin as a passenger left Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport on Wednesday at about 6 p.m. local time, bound for St. Petersburg. The paint and a partial registration number, RA-02795, visible on the aircraft match a jet that Mr. Prigozhin is known to use. Was Mr. Prigozhin killed? American officials said they could not confirm Mr. Prigozhin had been killed in the plane crash, or why the jet went down. Emerging from jail as the Soviet Union was collapsing, Mr. Prigozhin began his post-criminal career selling hot dogs on street corners in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Persons: Yevgeny V, Russian Wagner, Prigozhin, Prighozin, Dmitri Utkin, Wagner, Vladimir V, Putin, Mr, ”, Prighozhin, Putin’s Organizations: RIA Novosti, Embraer, Russian, Kremlin, Central African Locations: Russian, Moscow, Sheremetyevo, St . Petersburg, Kuzhenkino, Tver, Western, Kremlin, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine, Soviet Union, Bakhmut, Syria, Libya, Mali, Central African Republic, Belarus

Russian officials said Ukrainian forces dropped explosives on a Russian village near the border with Ukraine, killing three, and targeted Moscow with drones for a sixth consecutive day on Wednesday. Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion almost 18 months ago, Ukrainian forces have regularly fired on villages in the region, according to the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov. Two other drones were shot down early Wednesday in suburban districts of the Moscow region, the Russian Defense Ministry said on the messaging app Telegram. Ukrainian officials did not immediately comment on the episodes, as has been their practice on attacks inside Russia. The drone attacks in the Moscow region have not caused injuries or deaths, according to Russian officials.

Persons: Vyacheslav Gladkov, ” “, Vladimir V, Juston Jones, Edward Wong Organizations: U.S, Moscow City, Russian Defense Ministry, U.S . State Department, Ukraine, Russia’s Federal Agency for Air Transport Locations: Ukrainian, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, Belgorod, Russia, ” “ Russia, Moscow City, Ukraine’s Odesa

American officials say there are indications that Ukraine has started to shift some of its more seasoned combat forces from the east to the south. But even the most experienced units have been reconstituted a number of times after taking heavy casualties. Ukraine has penetrated at least one layer of Russian defenses in the south in recent days and is increasing the pressure, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. Taking the village, American officials said, would be a good sign. The Russians are battling from concealed positions that Ukrainian soldiers often see only when they are feet away.

Locations: Ukraine

American officials say they fear that Ukraine has become casualty adverse, one reason it has been cautious about pressing ahead with the counteroffensive. The number of dead and wounded reflects the amount of lethal munitions being expended by both sides. When close combat does occur, it resembles the battles of World War I: brutal and often taking place in trenches. Unlike the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, where American forces strictly adhered to evacuating casualties within an hour to a well-stocked medical facility, there is no such capability in Ukraine. In some cases, the wounded and dead are left on the battlefield, because medics are unable to reach them.

Locations: Ukraine, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq

In a long-awaited move, the United States will allow allies to send American-made F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv once Ukrainian pilots are trained to operate them, a U.S. official confirmed on Thursday. However, the requirement that Ukraine’s pilots be fully trained means that the approvals will not come for months. Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which began two months ago, has a chance of prevailing without the fighter jets, experts say, but it is likely to be far more difficult. The U.S. decision had been anticipated since May, when President Biden eased his resistance to NATO allies’ efforts to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s and provide the jets to Ukraine. The official who confirmed the U.S. shift was not authorized to publicly discuss the agreement and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Persons: Yuriy Ihnat, ”, Biden Organizations: U.S, Ukraine’s Air Force, NATO Locations: United States, Kyiv, Ukrainian, Ukraine, U.S

☆ Blinken’s Toughest Challenge Might Not Be Coups but Passport Delays
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Michael Crowley | More About Michael Crowley | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken has a crisis on his hands. But unlike the foreign coups, hostage-takings and military threats that the nation’s top diplomat routinely faces, this one comes from within the vast bureaucracy he commands — and may be even more difficult to solve. The problem is a huge backlog of passport applications that is creating summer travel nightmares for Americans who find that getting a new passport or renewing an expired one can take months, forcing them into panicked races against their planned travel date through an often bewildering bureaucratic maze. Senator Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, has called the situation a “crisis.” Senator Rick Scott, Republican of Florida, has said it is “an unacceptable failure.” And Utah’s entire congressional delegation told Mr. Blinken in a letter this spring that their offices were “struggling to handle all incoming emergency requests due to the sheer volume” of pleas from their constituents. “While running a competent passport application process may not make a panel at Davos, this is an important function of the federal government that directly affects the lives and plans of millions of Americans,” Senator Eric Schmitt, Republican of Missouri, said in a letter to Mr. Blinken, referring to the elite economic forum held annually in the Swiss Alps.

Persons: Antony J, Blinken, —, Mark Warner, Rick Scott, Eric Schmitt Organizations: Democrat, Republican Locations: Virginia, Florida, Davos, Missouri, Swiss

The military takeover in Niger has upended years of Western counterterrorism efforts in West Africa and now poses wrenching new challenges for the Biden administration’s fight against Islamist militants on the continent. American-led efforts to degrade terrorist networks around the world have largely succeeded in longtime jihadist hot spots like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Not so in Africa, especially in the Sahel, the vast, semiarid region south of the Sahara where groups linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State are gaining ground at an alarming pace. Niger, an impoverished nation of 25 million people that is nearly twice the size of Texas, has recently been the exception to that trend. Niger has slowed, but not stopped, a wave of extremists pushing south to coastal states.

Persons: Biden, Mohamed Bazoum Organizations: Islamic, Nigerien Locations: Niger, West Africa, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Africa, Sahel, Al Qaeda, Texas

Ukraine’s decision to change tactics is a clear signal that NATO’s hopes for large advances made by Ukrainian formations armed with new weapons, new training and an injection of artillery ammunition have failed to materialize, at least for now. It raises questions about the quality of the training the Ukrainians received from the West and about whether tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons, including nearly $44 billion worth from the Biden administration, have been successful in transforming the Ukrainian military into a NATO-standard fighting force. “The counteroffensive itself hasn’t failed; it will drag on for several months into the fall,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who recently visited the front lines. “Arguably, the problem was in the assumption that with a few months of training, Ukrainian units could be converted into fighting more the way American forces might fight, leading the assault against a well-prepared Russian defense, rather than helping Ukrainians fight more the best way they know how.”President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has increasingly signaled that his strategy is to wait out Ukraine and its allies and win the war by exhausting them. American officials are worried that Ukraine’s return to its old tactics risks that it will race through precious ammunition supplies, which could play into Mr. Putin’s hands and disadvantage Ukraine in a war of attrition.

Persons: Biden, ”, Michael Kofman, Vladimir V, Putin, Putin’s Organizations: NATO, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace Locations: Russia, Ukraine

The task facing the advancing Ukrainian troops is monumental. Since seizing Ukrainian territory in last year’s invasion, Russia has built a dense defensive web of minefields, trenches, bunkers, tank traps and other obstacles. Other American officials said that the most recent Ukrainian attack might be preparatory operations for the main thrust or reinforcements to replenish war-weary units. American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said on Wednesday that most of those reserves had been committed. Local occupation officials reported fierce battles raging south of Orikhiv, involving brigades of foreign-trained troops and armor donated by the United States and Germany.

Persons: David Guttenfelder, Igor Konashenkov, Volodymyr Zelensky, Zelensky, ”, “ Organizations: 47th Brigade, The New York Times, Tass, Pentagon, “ Locations: Zaporizhzhia, Russia, Orikhiv, Robotyne, Tokmak, Russian, United States, Germany, Ukraine

Ukraine has launched the main thrust of its counteroffensive, throwing in thousands of troops held in reserve, many of them Western-trained and equipped, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, hours after Russian officials reported major Ukrainian attacks in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. A spokesman for Russia’s Defense Ministry, Igor Konashenkov, said the Ukrainians had mounted a “massive” assault with three battalions, reinforced with tanks, south of the town of Orikhiv, and then another a few miles farther south near the village of Robotyne, according to the state news agency Tass. Both were repelled, the ministry said. Other American officials cautioned that the latest Ukrainian attack might be preparatory operations for the main thrust or perhaps just reinforcements to replenish war-weary units. The challenge for the Ukrainians, since they began their counteroffensive in early June, has been to blast open a gap in the deep Russian defense network, and then try to pour through a much larger force.

Persons: Igor Konashenkov Organizations: Pentagon, Russia’s Defense Ministry Locations: Ukraine, Orikhiv, Robotyne

The toll includes some of the formidable Western fighting machines — tanks and armored personnel carriers — the Ukrainians were counting on to beat back the Russians. The startling rate of losses dropped to about 10 percent in the ensuing weeks, the officials said, preserving more of the troops and machines needed for the major offensive push that the Ukrainians say is still to come. Some of the improvement came because Ukraine changed tactics, focusing more on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles than charging into enemy minefields and fire. The losses have also slowed because the counteroffensive itself has slowed — and even halted in places — as Ukrainian soldiers struggle against Russia’s formidable defenses. And despite the losses, the Ukrainians have so far taken just five of the 60 miles they hope to cover to reach the sea in the south and split the Russian forces in two.

Locations: Ukraine, —, Russian

☆ U.S. Cluster Munitions Arrive in Ukraine, but Impact on Battlefield Remains Unclear
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Eric Schmitt | More About Eric Schmitt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. officials and military analysts warn that American-made cluster munitions probably will not immediately help Ukraine in its flagging counteroffensive against Russian defenses as hundreds of thousands of the weapons arrived in the country from U.S. military depots in Europe, according to Pentagon officials. “The scale of effect will be modest,” said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, who has made several trips to Ukraine. “It will make the Ukrainian artillery a little more lethal. The real impact will be felt later in the year when Ukraine has significantly more ammo than would otherwise have been the case.”Colin H. Kahl, the under secretary of defense for policy, acknowledged last week that “no one capability is a silver bullet,” but said the cluster munitions would allow Ukraine “to sustain the artillery fight for the foreseeable future.”President Biden had wrestled with a decision for months. Cluster munitions, which have been outlawed by many of America’s closet allies, scatter tiny bomblets across the battlefield that can cause grievous injuries even decades after the fighting ends when civilians pick up duds that did not explode.

Persons: ”, Jack Watling, ” Colin H, Kahl, Biden Organizations: Pentagon, Royal United Services Institute Locations: Ukraine, U.S, Europe, London, “

And France pledged a shipment of the same missiles, which it calls SCALPs, as NATO leaders gathered in Lithuania on Tuesday. Like the United States, France had previously ruled out providing Ukraine with longer-range missiles, over concerns they could be used to attack targets in Russia, escalating the conflict. The ATACMS are among the last major weapons systems that Kyiv wants and the United States is reluctant to give. France’s announcement on Tuesday could either fuel the pressure campaign or, conversely, ease it now that Ukraine is receiving long-range missiles from other countries. Mr. Reznikov made clear that he would not stop asking for ATACMs or long-range missiles from any ally.

Persons: Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Mr, Macron, Abrams, America’s, Lockheed Martin, ATACMS, what’s, ”, Franklin D, Kramer, Oleksii Reznikov, Reznikov, “, Eric Schmitt, Matthew Mpoke Bigg, Zolan Kanno, Youngs Organizations: NATO, Tactical Missile Systems, Pentagon, Russian, United, Kyiv, Lockheed, Republicans, Taurus Locations: Ukraine, France, Lithuania, United States, Russia, Britain, Crimea, Vilnius, Lithuanian, Germany, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, Romania, Korean, “, Washington, London

The United States appears to be on the verge of providing Ukraine with cluster munitions, a senior Biden administration official said. What are cluster munitions? “There’s just not a responsible way to use cluster munitions,” said Brian Castner, the weapons expert on Amnesty International’s Crisis Response Team. The New York Times has documented Russia’s extensive use of cluster munitions in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022. The Convention on Cluster Munitions also limits the ability of nations that have signed on to cooperate militarily with countries that employ them.

Persons: Laura Cooper, “ There’s, ”, Brian Castner, Castner, “, Ukraine —, Jerry Redfern, Mary Wareham, Cooper, Biden, Gabriela Rosa Hernández, David Guttenfelder, Oleksandr Kubrakov, ” Eric Schmitt, John Ismay, Gaya Gupta Organizations: Biden, Washington, U.S, Pentagon, National Public Radio, United Nations, Amnesty, Cluster Munitions, Getty, The New York Times, The Times, Human Rights Watch, NATO, Ukraine, Munitions, Arms Control, Ukraine’s, Brigade, ., Munich Security Locations: States, Ukraine, Kyiv, Russia, Eurasia, Tibnin, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Balkans, Laos, U.S, United, United States, LightRocket, Russian, Kramatorsk, Ukrainian

☆ Allies React Cautiously to Prospect of U.S. Cluster Weapons for Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Cassandra Vinograd | Thomas Gibbons-Neff | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +8 min

President Biden defended his decision on Friday to provide Ukraine with cluster munitions, which are outlawed by many of America’s closest allies, saying it was a difficult decision but “the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition” in the fight against Russian forces. For months, Mr. Biden had wrestled with the decision to supply the weapons, which scatter tiny, deadly bomblets across the battlefield. Ultimately, the president determined that depriving Ukraine of the weapons would amount to leaving it defenseless against Russia. He said it was a temporary move to hold Ukraine over until the production of conventional artillery rounds could be ramped up. “It was a very difficult decision on my part — and by the way, I discussed this with our allies, I discussed this with our friends up on the Hill,” Mr. Biden said in an interview with CNN.

Persons: Biden, America’s, ” Mr, “ Organizations: Russian, Russia, CNN Locations: Ukraine

Now, Mr. Biden’s aides think they have little choice. Ukraine, which has deployed cluster munitions of its own in the war, is burning through the available supply of conventional artillery shells, and it will take time to ramp up production. One American official said Thursday that it was now clear that the weapons are “100 percent necessary” to meet the current battlefield needs. The administration has also been aware that sending the weapons to Ukraine would be enormously unpopular among allies and members of Mr. Biden’s own party; over the years, many Democrats have led the charge to bar the use of the weapons by American troops. When, five days into the war, Jen Psaki, then the White House press secretary, was asked about the Russian use of unconventional weapons, including cluster munitions, she said: “We have seen the reports.

Persons: Biden, Volodymyr Zelensky, Biden’s, Jen Psaki Organizations: American, White House Locations: Ukraine, United States, Russia

The Supreme Court ruled on Friday to strike down President Joe Biden's student-loan-forgiveness plan. Republicans, who had said the plan was unfair and unconstitutional, immediately celebrated. Republican lawmakers — many of whom had been outspoken critics of the plan — were happy to see it. Rep. Virginia Foxx, the GOP chair of the Education and Workforce Committee and an outspoken opponent of Biden's plan, wished "good riddance" to Biden's "illegal, economically disastrous taxpayer-funded bailout for the wealthy." Other Republicans took aim at the plan's constitutionality and claims that the relief was unfair, talking points that the GOP seized upon after Biden first introduced the plan.

Persons: Joe Biden's, —, Bill Cassidy, Cassidy, Brown, Biden, Virginia Foxx, Biden's, Foxx, Kevin McCarthy, Nancy Pelosi's, McCarthy, Rep, Pfluger, John Thune, Thune, Eric Schmitt, shouldn't, Schmitt Organizations: Republicans, Service, Republican, Health, Education, Labor, Pensions, Biden, US Department of Education, . Nebraska, GOP, MOHELA, Workforce Committee, Twitter, White Locations: ., Rep, Texas, South Dakota, Missouri

Days after an aborted rebellion in Russia by a mercenary group presented a dramatic challenge to his leadership, President Vladimir V. Putin made highly choreographed public appearances in an effort to project power and control, even as U.S. officials said early intelligence reports suggested that a top general had been detained in connection with the failed uprising. In Moscow, Mr. Putin attended a technology fair on Thursday, sitting in a gaming chair and joking with other panelists onstage. The day before, he strode through a crowd of well-wishers in southern Russia, shaking hands, kissing a girl on the head and posing for selfies. It was a display that Russians had not glimpsed from their leader in years. But amid the Kremlin’s efforts to emphasize popular support for Mr. Putin and the message that Russia was back to business as usual, U.S. officials said that the Russian authorities appeared to have detained a general, Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, who American officials say had known in advance about the rebellion by the Wagner mercenary group.

Persons: Vladimir V, Putin, strode, “, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Surovikin, Wagner Locations: Russia, Moscow, Derbent, Ukraine

The Biden administration asked Ukrainian officials not to conduct covert attacks inside Russia as the Wagner group rebellion was underway and advised them not to do anything that would influence the outcome of events or take advantage of the chaos, according to American officials. They did not know how he intended to do that, or what he intended to do with them, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. The outreach came soon after Mr. Prigozhin began his rebellion, officials said. In urging Kyiv to exercise caution, U.S. officials did not want to give President Vladimir V. Putin an excuse to claim that Mr. Prigozhin’s rebellion was orchestrated by the United States or by Ukraine. They also said they believed that any high-profile operation by Ukrainian forces inside Russia was unlikely to have any major effect on Mr. Prigozhin’s goals, but would allow Mr. Putin to level accusations against the West, according to American assessments.

Persons: Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Prigozhin, Sergei K, Valery V, Vladimir V, Putin, Prigozhin’s Organizations: Biden, Ukrainian, West Locations: Russia, Ukraine, U.S, Kyiv, United States

A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks. General Surovikin is a respected military leader who helped shore up defenses across the battle lines after Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, analysts say. He was replaced as the top commander in January but retained influence in running war operations and remains popular among the troops. American officials also said there are signs that other Russian generals may also have supported Mr. Prigozhin’s attempt to change the leadership of the Defense Ministry by force. Current and former U.S. officials said Mr. Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that others in positions of power would come to his aid.

Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin’s, Sergei Surovikin, Vladimir V, Putin, Surovikin, Prigozhin’s, Prigozhin Organizations: Defense Ministry Locations: Russian, Ukraine

The column of Bradley armored vehicles rumbled forward, filled with Ukrainian soldiers, bringing a new and potent American weapon to the war’s southern front. The explosion blew off one of the vehicle’s bulldozer-like tracks, immobilizing it. The entire Ukrainian column reversed direction, pulling back. Three weeks into a counteroffensive critical to Ukraine’s prospects against Russia, its army is encountering an array of vexing challenges that complicate its plans, even as it wields sophisticated new Western-provided weapons. Not least is a vast swath of minefields protecting Russia’s defensive line, forming a killing field for Ukrainian troops advancing on the open steppe of the south.

Persons: Bradley, ”, Ashot Arutiunian Organizations: Russia

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