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☆ The sizzling stock rally is under threat, and company profits could shrink as consumers feel the squeeze, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

2023's blistering stock rally is under threat, according to a top JPMorgan Asset Management strategist. The impact of banking chaos could soon start to weigh on stocks, David Lebovitz said. Ahead of Thursday's inflation report, Lebovitz also commented on company margins and whether sticky costs will weigh on firms' pricing power. "When we look at the consumer, the consumer looks fine today, but the consumer is beginning to bend. That's going to undermine the pricing power that's allowed a lot of these companies to keep their heads above water," he added.

Persons: David Lebovitz, Lebovitz, that's, David Rosenberg Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Bloomberg, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Student-loan payments and steeper interest rates will pave way for a severe consumer-led recession, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The resumption of student loan payments combined with interest-rate hikes will fuel a consumer-led recession, David Rosenberg warned. Rosenberg has been bearish on markets and the US economy for a while, and has faced backlash over it. After a three-year pause, the federal government will start charging interest on federal student-loan balances once more, and student-loan borrowers will start making payments again in October. The loan repayments, combined with higher interest rates, threaten to to trigger a consumer slowdown, Rosenberg said in a CNBC interview. So, I think that it's going to be consumer-led," Rosenberg said, speaking about a prospective recession.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Joe Biden's, " Rosenberg, he's Organizations: Service, CNBC, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ High rates will lead to a consumer-lead recession, more severe than people think: David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigh rates will lead to a consumer-lead recession, more severe than people think: David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the day's market action, what's ahead for the economy and the impacts of the aggressive rate hiking cycle.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ Stock-market investors rarely see a recession coming despite warning signals. As all the classic alarm bells ring again, this time is no different, experts say — setting investors up to get crushed.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 has rallied 17% year-to-date, but the Treasury yield curve and LEI point to a downturn. For Rosenberg, the difference is that we currently have an inverted yield curve, a recession signal that has preceded every downturn since the 1960s. An inverted yield curve means that rates on short-duration Treasurys rise higher than rates on long-duration Treasurys. The yield curve inverts often during Fed hiking cycles because short-term Treasury rates track closely along with the fed funds rate. The below chart shows the share of consecutive trading days where the yield curve has been inverted.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, Here's Lacy Hunt, here's Rosenberg, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Federal, Hoisington Investment Management Company, of Labor Statistics

☆ More firms on Wall Street are bracing for a stock sell-off. Here's why JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and others say the market's huge gains are at risk.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some Wall Street analysts are sounding the alarm for a coming sell-off in stocks. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys its best year since 1927, gaining 18% from January. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. That comes as the S&P 500 enjoys one of its best years since 1927, largely thanks to Wall Street's excitement for artificial intelligence. But he sees the overall S&P 500 ending the year at 4,600-4,800, above current levels.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz JPMorgan, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Shannon Stapleton Wells, Scott Wren, Wren, Brendan McDermid, Rosenberg, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, REUTERS, Reuters BlackRock, Rosenberg Research, Dow Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Wall Street keeps booming, but not everyone's convinced the bull market will last. Here's 6 voices of doom and gloom on US equities.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here's six bearish views on the sizzling rally in equities, from Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg. From Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg, there's a chorus of market commentators throwing cold water on the fiery stock rally. That's given investors even more incentive to pile into equities, adding fuel to the stock rally. Here's 6 bearish stock market calls amid the stock market's breathless climb. Yet too many signs point to a severe stock market crash.

Persons: Warren Buffett, David Rosenberg, it's, there's, Dow Jones, Oppenheimer, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Rosenberg, Tom Lee, Lee, Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor, John Hussman, Hussman, Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, DiMartino Booth Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Buffett, Rosenberg Research, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Investors are making the same mistake they made during the dot-com and housing bubbles, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are so excited about stocks that they're missing the bigger, grimmer economic picture. Danielle DiMartino Booth said the complacency reminded her of the dot-com and housing bubbles. She pointed to a surge in bankruptcies and mounting pressures in the bank and real estate sectors. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. DiMartino Booth has made it clear she's in the latter camp for now.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, BNN, DiMartino Booth, Biden, Sam, Jeremy Siegel, Paul Krugman, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, QI Research, BNN Bloomberg, Nasdaq, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

PinnedThe massacre of 11 worshipers at a Pittsburgh synagogue in 2018 is considered the deadliest antisemitic attack in U.S. history. “Finally, justice has been served,” said Leigh Stein, whose father, Dan Stein, was killed in the attack. Image Relatives of the victims of the Pittsburgh synagogue mass shooting spoke on Wednesday after jurors recommended that the gunman be sentenced to death. The defense called no witnesses in that part of the trial, as there was never any dispute that Mr. Bowers had carried out the attack. The police rushed to the synagogue and, after exchanging gunfire with Mr. Bowers, eventually cornered him in a classroom.

Persons: Robert Bowers, “, ”, Leigh Stein, Dan Stein, Biden, ” Merrick, Garland, Robert Colville, Justin Merriman, Howard Fienberg, Joyce Fienberg, we’ve, ” Weeks, Bowers, Dor Hadash —, Cecil, David Rosenthal, Fienberg, Irving Younger, Sylvan Simon, Simon’s, Bernice, Rose Mallinger, Jerry Rabinowitz, Dor Hadash, Richard Gottfried, Stein, Melvin Wax, Judy Clarke, Satan, Ms, Clarke, ” Eric Olshan, “ It’s, that’s, Doris Dyen, Jon Moss Organizations: “, Justice Department, The New York Times, Jewish Community Center of Greater, ., New, Prosecutors, Western, Western District of Locations: Pittsburgh, U.S, Jewish Community Center of Greater Pittsburgh, Western District, Western District of Pennsylvania

☆ A Wall Street titan who called the 2008 recession shares 7 top trades to make before the US economy enters into another downturn with stocks 'priced for perfection'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Look at the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, says Rosenberg, who called the 2008 recession. He added: "Even if we could argue about a recession or a soft landing, you have Nirvana priced into the stock market as an asset class right now." 7 places for returns as a recession loomsThe first place Rosenberg said he's bullish on is the Treasury market. Treasury bills have durations of one year or less, while Treasury bonds have durations of 20 years or more. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is one way to invest in Japanese stocks.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Treasurys, Rosenberg, there's, he's, bullish, underperformance, Warren Buffett Organizations: Treasury, Conference, CNN, Rosenberg Research, Treasury Bond ETF, Regional Banking, Vanguard Utilities, Real, Fidelity MSCI Communication Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ David Rosenberg doubles down on his recession call - and reveals the wild pushback he's faced
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

David Rosenberg is sticking with his recession call, despite many other experts backing down. In a client memo, he shared some of the extreme pushback he's received for his gloomy forecasts. David Rosenberg, a leading economist who called both the dot-com and housing crashes, remains fully convinced the US economy is headed for a recession. Recession indicators including the inverted yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and the New York Fed's recession model are still flashing red. "The impatience and tempestuousness out there do not surprise me, either, having called the markets and the economy for nearly 40 years," he continued.

Persons: David Rosenberg, he's, Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Merrill, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Internet, Conference, Biden, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, Houston, York, North American

☆ Famed economist David Rosenberg says the Fed's research team laughed at him in late 2007 when he warned them a recession was coming. He says the central bank is now on the verge of sparking another do
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Economist David Rosenberg told Insider that Fed employees laughed at his recession call in 2007. On October 9, 2007, shortly before the global economy plunged into recession, David Rosenberg delivered a presentation to economists and members of the research team at the Federal Reserve detailing why a downturn was coming. The Treasury yield curve is near its most inverted levels since the early 1980s. Here's the spread between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields. Then there's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which is in recessionary territory, marked by the red lines below.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Mr, Louis Organizations: Federal Reserve, North, Conference, Fed, Federal, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: North American

☆ The Dow's latest winning streak is bad news for stocks - and a recession might be underway, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow's recent winning streak is a worrying sign, David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg says a recession may be underway, and plunging inflation can be bad news for stocks. For the first time since January 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in the green for 13 straight sessions before snapping its winning streak on Thursday. Stocks were up 28% at this point in 1987, Rosenberg noted. Rosenberg cautioned investors who expect stocks to soar because inflation has now slowed.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Stocks, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Dow, Rosenberg Research, Federal, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American

☆ The US economy is weakening as YOLO spenders pull back from 'fun and games,' economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Consumers that are eager to spend are starting to pull back on "fun and games," economist David Rosenberg said. That spells trouble for the economy, as these so-called YOLO spenders have propped up growth. So-called "fun and games" spending has softened in areas outside of cruise lines and air travel, Rosenberg said, which likely spells trouble for the economy in the coming months. Though GDP grew in the second quarter, real gross domestic income has already fallen into a recession, Rosenberg said, with the measure shrinking over the last two quarters. Markets have been fretting over a potential recession for the past year, as the Fed aggressively hiked interest rates to control inflation.

Persons: David Rosenberg, " Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CNBC, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, YOLO

☆ Demand for 'fun and games spending' will subside over next year, says David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDemand for 'fun and games spending' will subside over next year, says David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if markets have seen recessionary indications, what the economy would be look like without the post-Covid boom, and more.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ A top economist says the stock-market mania reminds him of the dot-com and housing bubbles - and warns consumers are feeling the squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

David Rosenberg warned the buzz around stocks today is similar to the mania before past crashes. The economist noted that American consumers are running short of cash and struggling to borrow more. The veteran economist and Rosenberg Research president also rang the alarm on the US economy in a research note on Wednesday. "The balloon does have a lot of hot air in it," Rosenberg noted, suggesting it was hard to say when speculation and emotion would cease trumping fundamentals and rational thought. That has raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and wreaked havoc on debt-fueled industries such as commercial real estate.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Irving Fisher, Abby Joseph Cohen, Chuck Prince's doozy, you've, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, North, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Big Tech, Consumers, New York, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American

☆ A top Wall Street strategist says the stock-market rally is due for a reversal as a bubble forms — and warns investors not to equate surging prices with a healthy underlying economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Plus, falling inflation means weaker pricing power, and therefore weaker revenue growth, Kantrowitz said. If you look at long-term earnings growth, we're sitting near record-low levels. Long-term growth expectations, shown in gray, are near all-time lows. The PEG ratio takes into account longer-term future earnings, as opposed to the more present-based price-to-earnings ratio. He added: "For all intents and purposes, the PEG ratio has never been higher in a normalized backdrop."

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, downturns, Albert Edwards, Edwards, I'm Organizations: PMI, Treasury, Generale

☆ Jury in Pittsburgh Synagogue Trial Finds Gunman’s Crimes Eligible for Death Penalty
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Jon Moss | Campbell Robertson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Mr. Bowers was found guilty on 63 counts, including hate crimes that carry a maximum sentence of death. The central question facing jurors over the last two and a half weeks was whether Mr. Bowers intended to kill his victims — one of the factors necessary for a death sentence. “The issue in this case is, what happens when your brain is broken?” said Michael Burt, a defense attorney, in his closing argument. “What happens when you don’t have the ability to know what is truth and what is not truth?”thanks. Defense witnesses who had examined Mr. Bowers said he had schizophrenia and other serious mental disorders.

Persons: Dor Hadash —, Joyce Fienberg, Richard Gottfried, Rose Mallinger, Daniel Stein, Melvin Wax, Irving Younger, Jerry Rabinowitz, Bernice, Sylvan Simon, Cecil, David Rosenthal, Bowers, ”, Michael Burt

☆ SVB, BBBY, Lordstown lead list of US bankruptcies as companies fold up at the fastest pace since 2010
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Joseph Wilkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

First-half US corporate bankruptcies surged to the highest level since 2010, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows. Almost 3,000 firms folded up in the last six months, a 68% jump from a year earlier, according to Epiq Bankruptcy. American businesses have come under increased stress after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively. Total company failures for the period surged 68% from a year earlier to almost 3,000, according to data provider Epiq Bankruptcy. Rising corporate bankruptcies are a worrying sign for the wider US economy, which is already under strain from the effects of the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Gregg Morin Organizations: P Global Market Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Service, Valley, Bed, Lordstown Motors, Mediamath Holdings, Epiq, Business Development

☆ Higher for longer is here, and chasing high-flyers will end in tears, says David Rosenberg
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigher for longer is here, and chasing high-flyers will end in tears, says David RosenbergDavid Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research, joins 'Fast Money' to discuss the Fed's current trajectory, its impact on the economy and more.

Persons: David Rosenberg David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Rosenberg Research

☆ How AI reshapes the economy: Wall Street legends David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott told us massive upheaval is coming for the job market — and overzealous investors are fueling a stock bubble
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Both David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott see big disruption coming for the labor market. AI stocks are also overextended amid the current mania, they said. Rob Arnott says AI will evolve rapidly and upend the labor market. He added: "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty." Beware of an AI-stock bubbleFor Arnott, AI will undoubtedly be good for bottom lines.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Rosenberg, Arnott, Tim Boyle, aren't, Merrill Lynch, it's, Tesla, that's, Gluskin Sheff Rosenberg Organizations: Labor, Research, Bloomberg, Getty, North, Rosenberg Research Locations: North American, ChatGPT

☆ Americans aren't spending like they used to
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

You can also download the app to get notifications about our biggest markets stories. Spending has remained elevated even through the Fed's 10 straight rate hikes, but warning signs of a change have started to surface. That's going to further take the wind out of Americans' brisk spending over the last few years. From David Rosenberg to Rob Arnott, experts are sharing what the disruptive technology can mean for the economy, jobs, and stock market. The biggest companies and banks can't agree on where the stock market is heading next.

Persons: I'm Phil Rosen, You'll, let's, Derek Davis, Patek Pilippe, Audemars, Jerome Powell, Brian Moynihan, Morgan Stanley, Andy Ryan, Pablo Hernández de Cos, David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Stocks, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Phil Rosen, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Big Apple, Portland Portland Press, Getty, Rolex, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Bank of Spain, Fed, Wall Street, Royal, Nvidia, Tesla, Morningstar Locations: Madrid, Phoenix, Miami, Royal Caribbean, New York, London

The central bank is worried that the Canadian economy is running too hot for inflation to return to its 2% target and that if it waits to act, inflation expectations could rise, making matters worse. The central bank lifted its benchmark rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% this month and is expected to tighten further in July or September. A hard landing for the economy, or a recession, could raise unemployment, something the BoC has been hoping to avoid. "I'm not going to be betting against interest rates and I'm not going to be betting against policy lags." The data has left analysts pushing back their forecasts of a slowdown to later in 2023 or in 2024 but accompanied by higher than anticipated interest rates.

Persons: Karl Schamotta, David Rosenberg, I'm, Royce Mendes, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Denny Thomas, Stephen Coates Organizations: TORONTO, Bank, Bank of Canada's, BoC, Bank of Canada, Rosenberg Research, Desjardins, Thomson Locations: United States, Data, Toronto, Ottawa

☆ Wall Street titans including David Rosenberg and Rob Arnott sound off on AI: What they told us about the disruptive technology — from how it will lead to 'permanent displacement' of jobs, to why it's
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

AI's impact on the job marketRob Arnott"Every important disruption since the start of the industrial revolution has cost millions of people jobs. Millions of jobs will be lost to those who know how to use AI. "The implications of generative AI on the labor market will be one of upheaval and one of escalating job uncertainty. Are AI stocks in a bubble? Rosenberg"Advancements in AI technology, and its knock-on effects on profitability and productivity, is a legitimate investment thesis.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rob Arnott, Savita Subramanian, Cam Harvey, Jawad Mian, Jobs, Merrill Lynch, aren't, Rosenberg, Harvey, Arnott, Brad Cornell, Aswath, There's, that's, Savita, –, capex, Mian Organizations: Industries, Investors, Research, Rosenberg Research, North, Bank of America Securities, Duke University, Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Tech, Software, Services, Professional Services, IT Services Locations: North American, ChatGPT, Asia, Taiwan

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says stocks are set to suffer 'profound' losses as valuations remain at historic extremes — and dismisses the current rally as a 'narrow an
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It also doesn't offer a fair characterization of the entire S&P 500's performance. Hussman's preferred valuation measure is total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of non-financial stocks. According to Bank of America, 80% of the S&P 500's returns over a 10-year period can be attributed to valuations. The red line in the chart below shows the gauge, while the blue is the S&P 500's price action. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

Persons: John Hussman, Hussman, hasn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, David Rosenberg, Solita, 18.5x, it's, Jeremy Grantham, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, UBS, University of Pennsylvania, Housing

☆ Is the AI-led 'baby bubble' bursting? BofA says tech stocks just saw their biggest outflow in 10 weeks.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors just sold off $2 billion in tech shares, the largest outflow in 10 weeks. Previously, the bank called AI a "baby bubble," comparing it to the 2000s dot-com craze. Previously, Hartnett compared the excitement for AI to the dot-com bubble, when internet stocks boomed before the Nasdaq Composite plunged 78% in the early 2000s. In a prior note, he called Wall Street's excitement for AI a "baby bubble," and suggested that AI stocks could soon "mature" as internet stocks did in 1999. Along with Hartnett, UBS's Art Cashin and veteran economist David Rosenberg have also drawn parallels with the current boom in AI stocks to the dot-com bubble.

Persons: —, Michael Hartnett, Tesla, Hartnett, Cashin, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bank of America, Investors, Service, Tech, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Nasdaq, Labor

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