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☆ 'We are at the very onset of a recession right now': A top Wall Street strategist shares a 'huge red flag' signaling the economy is heading into a downturn — sending stocks tumbling as much as 20%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: What recession? A record number of US consumers plan to vacation in a foreign country in the next 6 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The share of US consumers who plan to visit a foreign country in the next six months is at a record high. "The bottom line is that rates will stay higher for longer because the Fed is still trying to get non-housing service sector inflation under control." download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThat suggests the Fed is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer even though markets are starting to warm up to the idea of interest rate cuts in 2024. Advertisement"The bottom line is that rates will stay higher for longer because the Fed is still trying to get non-housing service sector inflation under control," Sløk said.

Persons: Apollo, —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk Organizations: Service, Conference, Federal

☆ Is Remote Work the Answer to Women’s Prayers, or a New ‘Mommy Track’?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Sarah Kessler | More About Sarah Kessler | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

And when work and caregiving conflict, women are more likely to take a step back. Most post-pandemic debate around remote work has focused on whether it’s here to stay. Some version of it seems likely: About 70 percent of workers who can do their jobs off-site still work remotely either all or some days. But if old attitudes about more flexible work resurge — outspoken executives have recently described it as “lazy,” not for leaders and a perk for those who don’t “work as hard”— then it may not matter if hybrid options are widespread. This is especially true for highly skilled jobs, because women hold the majority of college degrees.

Persons: Claudia Goldin —, —, Williams, ”, Betsey Stevenson Organizations: Board, University of Michigan

☆ American consumers may be starting to buckle. Here are 5 warning signs a spending slowdown is on the horizon.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Americans are saving lessThe personal savings rate slumped to 3.4% in September. That's well-below the pre-pandemic savings rate, when Americans were stashing away around 7% of their disposable personal income. Consumers aren't planning to splurge this holiday seasonAmericans are less likely to splurge this holiday season than last year. McKinsey & CompanyAmericans are looking less likely to splurge, even as they head into the holiday season. "Hiring for the holiday season is generally done in October, and adding up new jobs created in the BLS-defined holiday season retail sectors in the latest employment report shows that retailers expect a weaker holiday season," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Macquarie, Thierry Wizman, —, Wizman, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok Organizations: Service, Macquarie Global, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Conference, Conference Board, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Apollo, of Labor Statistics Holiday, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Locations: York

☆ Economic Outlook: Will 2024 Be Better?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Sharon Epperson | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic Outlook: Will 2024 Be Better? As we begin to close out a year dominated by historic inflation and interest rate hikes, the question on everyone's mind is when will things get better? CNBC's Sharon Epperson asks The Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson to look ahead to 2024 and examine what the economic landscape may resemble, and what that means for your money.

Persons: Sharon Epperson, Dana Peterson Organizations: Conference Board

☆ A CIO managing $40 million warns most stock-market investors are in danger of losses as high interest rates begin to stifle the economy and risk-free Treasury yields offer 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury rates are now elevated across the board as the yield curve begins to flatten out with longer-term rates continuing to rise. Here's the current equity-risk premium, which is how much the S&P 500 is expected to return annually over the next decade in excess of the 10-year Treasury note. As for downward pressure on the economy, Mulholland said the effects of higher interest rates would continue to show up in several ways. Businesses will be more hesitant to borrow money to expand as much amid higher rates, Mulholland said, and banks will be less likely to lend money. "Investors who make regular withdrawals or have large liquidity needs on the horizon would be smart to reduce stock market exposure now," Mulholland said.

Persons: Stephen Mulholland, it's, Mulholland, Rosenberg, Stocks, Louis Organizations: Mulholland, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, US Treasury Bills, Federal Reserve Bank of St, of Labor Statistics, Conference Locations: Fed's, American

☆ Job growth slowed in October as the economy settled into a new normal
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy added 150,000 jobs in October, based on nonfarm payroll employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics or BLS. That's less than September's revised job growth of 297,000. After two straight months of an unemployment rate at 3.8%, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%. Some of the industries that saw job growth from September to October included healthcare, construction, and leisure and hospitality. "The labor market remains tight, but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, payrolls, Biden, Labor Julie Su, Aaron Terrazas, Nick Bunker, that's, Bunker, might've, Terrazas, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Labor, That's, North America, Gross, Bureau, Board, Conference Board

☆ Retailers predict a slower holiday shopping season
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Retailers are projecting slower growth this holiday shopping season as inflation, higher borrowing costs, and the resumption of student loan repayments cause many consumers to pull back. The government reported that strong consumer spending drove the economy to a robust 4.9% annual growth rate in the July-September quarter. Consumer confidence dropped for the third consecutive month despite the booming economy. The resumption of student loan repayments last month after a three-year pause could also impact consumer spending. “Student loan repayments will diminish the already dwindling savings among younger households,” Moody’s said in a report this week.

Persons: Matthew Shay, ” Dana Peterson, “ Consumers, ”, ” Moody’s, ” Shay Organizations: New, New York CNN — Retailers, National Retail Federation, “, Consumer, Conference Board, Consumers Locations: New York, splurging

There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness

☆ Premarket stocks: American inequality is rising despite higher wages
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The median (or mid-point) net worth for households has also increased. And while the median net worth has increased significantly, it’s still under $200,000 — far short of the estimated amount Americans should have in retirement savings. Bud Light sales keep sinkingBud Light continues to drag on Anheuser-Busch InBev’s bottom line in the United States, reports my colleague Jordan Valinsky. In the summer, Bud Light lost its long-held top-selling American beer title to rival Modelo. In an effort to jumpstart sales, Bud Light has been rolling out marketing campaigns and partnerships it thinks will placate fans.

Persons: it’s, ”, “ Consumers, ” Dana Peterson, Bud, Bud Light, Jordan Valinsky, Dylan Mulvaney, Elisabeth Buchwald, Biden, ’ Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Labor Department, Consumer Finances, Governors, Federal Reserve, Conference, Board, “, Conference Board, Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Bud Light, Anheuser, Busch, InBev, Modelo, Beer Business, NFL, UFC Locations: New York, Black, United States

Home prices rose 0.4% in August and at an annual rate of 2.6%, as low inventories buoyed prices even while mortgages hit the 7% level. The CoreLogic Case-Shiller index for the month found 12 of the 20 cities in the index saw higher prices in August from the year-ago period. home prices continued to rise in August 2023,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “The year’s increase in mortgage rates has surely suppressed housing demand, but after years of very low rates, it seems to have suppressed supply even more. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 604 Images“The affordability challenge is being exacerbated by persistently higher mortgage rates,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS.

Persons: ”, Craig J, Lazzara, ” Selma Hepp, Lisa Sturtevant, Hannah Jones, That’s, Rhys Williams, It’s, Venkat Balakrishnan, –, Dana Peterson, “, ” Peterson Organizations: Bright MLS, Federal Reserve, ”, Census Bureau, “, Realtor.com, Management, Fed, Conference Board, Hamas, Financial Group Locations: Chicago, New York, Detroit, Las Vegas, “, Israel

☆ US consumer confidence fall further in October
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Bing Guan/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence declined for a third straight month in October amid persistent worries about inflation, higher borrowing costs and the political environment, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 this month from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index slipping to 100.0 from the previously reported 103.0. "Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Bing Guan, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Board, Reuters, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: SoHo, New York City, U.S

WASHINGTON (AP) — American consumers are feeling increasingly less confident these days as fears of an oncoming recession remain elevated. The index measures both Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months. The index measuring Americans short-term outlook for income, business and job market declined again, to 75.6 in October from 76.4 in September. Though they continue to spend, inflation, geopolitical conflicts and inflation remain at the forefront of American consumers' minds. Consumers’ view of current conditions also fell this month, to 143.1 from 146.2 in September.

Persons: “, —, ”, Dana Peterson Organizations: WASHINGTON, Conference Board, Federal Reserve

TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares were trading mixed Tuesday as investors looked ahead to a week that could see more swings in financial markets, including key reports on U.S. consumer confidence and the job market. In currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose to 150.16 Japanese yen from 149.04 yen. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 49.45 points, or 1.2%, to close at 4,166.82 on Monday. Because it’s the most valuable stock on Wall Street, it is also the most influential stock on the S&P 500. Big Tech soared much more than the rest of the market early this year, which helped to lift the S&P 500 but also meant big expectations for continued growth.

Persons: Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Brent, Stan Choe, Damian J, Troise Organizations: TOKYO, Nikkei, Bank, Bank of Japan, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Big Tech, Treasury, Fed, Workers, U.S ., CVS Health, Pfizer, Starbucks, Traders, Benchmark Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Japan’s, Israel, Iran

☆ US consumer confidence dropped for third consecutive month despite the booming economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

For the third month in a row, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell — dropping to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September. The decline in consumer confidence was not evident across all age groups and household income levels. People above the age of 55 exhibited the biggest monthly decline in consumer confidence. Meanwhile, consumers with a household income between $25,000 to $35,000 saw the biggest decline in confidence about the economy over the past month. In contrast, consumers with a household income between $100,000 to $125,000 saw the biggest jump in confidence over the past month.

Persons: ” Dana Peterson, “ Consumers, ”, Bill Adams, ” Peterson, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference, Board, Conference Board, “, Big Three, United Auto Workers, Comerica Bank, LPL Financial, Federal Locations: New York, Israel

☆ MORGAN STANLEY: Own these 12 stocks from the energy and industrials sectors, which have historically outperformed the rest of the market by 11% as the economy nears the end of its growth cycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

Morgan Stanley strategists say we're in a late-cycle environment. In a recent client note, the bank listed 12 energy and industrials stocks that should benefit. Despite stocks having technically entered a new bull market earlier this year, equity strategists at Morgan Stanley say the US economy is nearing the end of its current cycle. This story is available exclusively to Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Andrew B, Pauker Organizations: Howmet Aerospace, Marathon Oil, Treasury, Conference

Do policymakers look back to last week’s report that the nation’s economy grew at a 4.9% rate in September, beating expectations? Or this week’s report on job growth for October due out on Friday after the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday? On Wednesday, the jobs data onslaught begins with private payroll firm ADP reporting its monthly employment survey for October. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 602 ImagesWednesday also has the Fed announcing its decision on interest rates. These include adjustments to the Fed’s new regime of higher interest rates for a longer period and the government’s fiscal situation that requires a greater level of debt issuance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, ” Chris Diaz, ”, Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, Johnson Organizations: Conference Board, Fed, Treasury, Federal, Brown Advisory, Labor Department, McDonalds, Apple, Dow Industrial, Louisiana Republican Locations: Louisiana

☆ How the Fed is using its multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet to fight inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Washington, DC CNN —The Fed’s fight against inflation is about to enter a new phase, but the central bank’s enormous balance sheet will continue to play a key role. The Fed also manages a multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet that accounts for trillions in government securities and lists how much currency is in circulation. For over a year now, the Fed has been steadily shrinking its balance sheet to help cool the economy. The Fed’s balance sheet is currently at around $7.9 trillion, down from its peak of $9 trillion in early 2022 right before the runoff. They also see alternative scenarios for the end of the balance sheet runoff if there isn’t a recession.

Persons: that’s, Lael Brainard, What’s, Wells, Jerome Powell, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon, Krystal Hur, Dimon —, Mr, Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, what’s, Estee Lauder, Kraft Heinz, Yum, Bausch, Eli Lilly, Molson Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Congress, Fed, Wall Street, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, CNN, HSBC, McDonald’s, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Japan, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Marathon Petroleum, Sirius XM, Anheuser, Busch, BP, Chesapeake Energy, US Labor Department, Global, Board, CVS, GSK, Humana, Reuters, Apollo Global Management, Brands, Garmin, Cruise Line Holdings, Qualcomm, Airbnb, PayPal, MetLife, Aflac, AIG, Allstate, Prudential, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, Duke Energy, Shopify, Ferrari, Marriott International, Moderna, Fox, Molson Coors, Hyatt, Apple, Motorola, Bank of England, Dominion Energy, Gartner, Restaurant Brands Locations: Washington, Treasuries, China’s, Mondelez, DoorDash, Avis, Shell, Cigna

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble shares 3 warning signs that the economy is crumbling despite upbeat data, putting stocks at risk of further downside
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.

Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, —, Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets

☆ US companies aren't feeling great about the economy - but one group is extra pessimistic
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small business owners and CFOs both reported feeling downbeat about the US economy in recent surveys. CFOs are far more optimistic about the prospects for their own companies relative to the wider economy. A historically low number of small business owners said it's a good time to expand operations. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementSmall business owners are pessimistic about the state of the US economy.

Persons: it's, —, Ned Davis, CFOs Organizations: Service, Conference Board, Ned Davis Research Small, NDR, Bloomberg, Fed

☆ 'We are expecting a pause' from the Fed next week, says Conference Board's Dana Peterson
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'We are expecting a pause' from the Fed next week, says Conference Board's Dana PetersonDana Peterson, Conference Board chief economist, joins 'Fast Money' to talk today's PCE data and what to expect from the FOMC meeting next week.

Persons: Board's Dana Peterson Dana Peterson Organizations: Fed, Conference Board

☆ The US economy is growing at the fastest pace in 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Real GDP rose 4.9% at an annualized rate in the third quarter. That greatly surpasses the roughly 2% seen in both the first and second quarter of this year. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy saw much higher GDP growth in the third quarter than the first two quarters of the year. The advance estimate suggests much stronger growth than the roughly 2% rates seen in the first and second quarters of the year. Meanwhile, real fixed investments slowed from 5.2% in the second quarter to 0.8% in the third quarter.

Persons: —, Larry Adam, Raymond James Organizations: Service, Board

☆ A recession is about to hit the US economy. Here are 3 warning signs that defy consensus view, according to Raymond James
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A recession is poised to hit the US economy within the next nine months, according to Raymond James. These are the three big warning signs Raymond James is monitoring ahead of a potential recession. These are the three warning signs he is monitoring ahead of a potential recession. Tailwinds that drove strong consumer spending since the pandemic are ending and excess savings have been nearly depleted. All of these risks should ultimately weigh on consumer spending habits as the crucial holiday season approaches.

Persons: Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Bank of America, Consumers

Sales rose in the Northeast but fell elsewhere, although sales were down year to year throughout the country. Sales are now running at an annual rate of 3.96 million, down 15.4% from 4.68 million a year ago. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau reported that retail sales rose by 0.7%, more than twice what had been expected, as consumers flocked to eating and dining establishments and shopped more online. Among middle-income households, 25% plan to spend more, while 16% of low-income households will increase holiday spending. “Despite a lot of the negativity you see everywhere, consumers seem pretty resilient,” Rose says.

Persons: ”, Lawrence Yun, LEI, Justyna, Monica, TransUnion, Mark Rose, ” Rose Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal, Conference, The Conference Board, “, The, Board, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Census Bureau, Labor Department

☆ Retail sales came in stronger due to climbing wages, says The Conference Board's Steve Odland
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRetail sales came in stronger due to climbing wages, says The Conference Board's Steve OdlandSteve Odland, president and CEO of The Conference Board, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss retail sales coming in higher than expected, disparity between consumer sentiment and consumer data, and strong consumer data increasing the probability for a Fed hike in January.

Persons: Steve Odland Steve Odland, Steve Liesman Organizations: Retail, Conference Board

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