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☆ Fed Set to Raise Interest Rates to 16-Year High and Debate a Pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

In projections released after their March meeting, most Federal Reserve officials thought the central bank would need to make one last quarter-point rate increase before moving to the sidelines. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesFederal Reserve officials are on track to increase interest rates again at their meeting this week while deliberating whether that will be enough to then pause the fastest rate-raising cycle in 40 years. “We are much closer to the end of the tightening journey than the beginning,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said April 20.

☆ Jim Cramer: This is what I learned from the real first week of earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"Simply stated we're in a freight recession." That line, uttered last Monday by Shelley Simpson, president of J.B. Hunt (JBHT), the fourth-largest trucking company in the United States, was the most memorable of the real first week of earnings season. If so, it would know that we're dealing with much more than a freight recession. It's not enough to offset the immense deflationary pressure emanating from the regional banks and the freight recession described by J.B. Hunt. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

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☆ Gold prices ease with Fed rate trajectory in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,001.75 per ounce, as of 0342 GMT, after rising 1% on Thursday. Gold prices have been moderating in the absence of real incoming news flow and "we really need to see some bigger pieces of information to give it that directional conviction", said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. "Gold pushed back above $2,000/oz as the weaker economic outlook is enticing safe-haven buying," ANZ said in a note. Rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Spot silver dipped 0.3% to $25.22 per ounce, while platinum was flat at $1,093.33 and palladium rose 0.5% to $1,594.26.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as investors awaited economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about the central bank's monetary policy plans. Investors assessed what could be next for Fed policy, especially regarding interest rates. Many are expecting the central bank to announce another 25 basis point interest rate hike after its next meeting on May 2-3. That fueled investor concerns about further interest rate hikes, and rates staying elevated for longer — a prospect which Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have also hinted at. On Thursday, investors will be scanning remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester for fresh policy hints.

☆ Fed's Mester sees policy rate over 5% and 'soft landing' on horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Mester, who does not have a vote on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, spoke less than two weeks before the Fed's May 2-3 policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to hike rates a final time at that meeting, lifting its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range. Noting a need to be "prudent" with policy, Mester said this possible change in financial conditions "would work in the same direction as tighter monetary policy," which the Fed will need to take stock of "to help us calibrate the appropriate path of monetary policy going forward." Mester said she expects the unemployment rate, which is currently 3.5%, to rise to between 4.5% and 4.75%. "The 'soft landing,' of course, is what we're aiming for," Mester said, referring to a scenario in which monetary tightening slows the economy, and inflation, without triggering a recession.

☆ Morning Bid: Oil price relapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although oil prices have not yet reversed all their gains from OPEC move, Brent is down more than 5% over the past week and the year-on-year deflation in oil prices is running at 24%. And there's also signs oil loading from Russia's western ports this month is rising to the highest since 2019 -= despite Moscow's pledge to cut output. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares dropped 2% after the electric-vehicle maker's sixth U.S. price cut this year. Helped by the oil price retreat, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields fell back almost 10 basis points to 4.19%. VIX and bear marketsShare price performance, earnings and sales for TeslaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Inflation is still too high: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta Mester
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is still too high: Cleveland Fed Pres. Loretta MesterCNBC's Scott Wapner joins 'Halftime' with breaking news from Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester about Fed policy moving into further restrictive policy.

April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks as employment growth moderated somewhat and price increases appeared to slow, according to a Federal Reserve report published on Wednesday. Several Fed districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity, the report showed. In the San Francisco Fed district, where failed Silicon Valley Bank was located, "lending activity fell significantly in recent weeks amid higher interest rates and elevated uncertainty in the banking sector," the report said. "Banking contacts reported some movement in deposits but little change in credit availability following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank," the Chicago Fed said. The Fed report noted that inflation pressures had moderated but remained widespread.

☆ Stock futures are slightly down as investors parse corporate earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are modestly lower Wednesday night as investors appraised the latest batch of corporate earnings. S&P 500 futures shed 0.2%, while Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.3%. "Earnings reports have been mixed thus far, with individual stocks responding to specific company results relative to expectations rather than broad index directionality," he said. Investors will watch Thursday for more earnings reports, including releases before the bell from Alaska Air and AT&T . Beyond earnings, investors will keep an eye on morning data on jobless claims and existing home sales.

☆ Accessing credit has become harder, Fed’s Beige Book shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The report captures the effects of last month’s banking turbulence on businesses and banks themselves. “Lending volumes and loan demand generally declined across consumer and business loan types,” the Fed said in its periodic compilation of business survey responses, known as the Beige Book. A tightening in credit conditions was perhaps the biggest change reflected in the latest Beige Book report. While those concerns have largely subsided, many economists feared it would make it harder to access credit. Other banks in the Richmond Fed’s district reported higher inflows of deposits following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the report said.

☆ Futures subdued as investors eye bank earnings, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.07%, S&P 0.10%, Nasdaq 0.01%April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were largely flat on Monday as investors awaited more bank earnings and views from Federal Reserve policymakers that could shape expectations around when the central bank will pause its monetary policy tightening. Wall Street ended lower on Friday as a barrage of mixed economic data appeared to affirm another Fed interest rate hike in May, dampening investor enthusiasm after a series of big U.S. bank earnings launched the first-quarter reporting season. U.S. central bank officials including New York Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester are scheduled to speak later this week. ET (1230 GMT) is expected to show business conditions in New York state improved in April after slumping in the previous month. ET, Dow e-minis were up 24 points, or 0.07%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.25 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 1 point, or 0.01%.

Fed bank directors don't vote on monetary policy, but they do express their views through non-binding votes on the discount rate, which is what the Fed charges to commercial banks for emergency loans. Fed bank presidents say their directors provide key information on the state of the economy. Despite their boards' preference for something different, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joined other Fed policymakers in a unanimous vote last month to lift the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester do not cast policy votes this year. Fed meeting minutes never specify which policymakers made which comments.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

But overall bank credit has been stalled at about $17.5 trillion since January. The response - less lending, tighter credit standards and higher interest on loans - was already taking shape. Hard data on bank lending and credit will come into play, augmenting topline statistics like unemployment and inflation that the Fed is focused on. Reuters GraphicsSENTIMENT WEAKENINGThe survey of large and small banks asks high-level questions - Are lending standards tighter or looser? A Dallas Fed bank conditions survey, conducted in late March after the two bank failures, indicated lending standards in that Fed regional bank's district have kept tightening, with loan demand falling.

☆ NY Fed index shows global supply chain pressures eased further in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said that as of March, its Global Supply Chain Pressure index moved to a reading of -1.06, versus the revised -0.28 seen in February. "Global supply chain conditions have largely normalized after experiencing temporary setbacks around the turn of the year," the bank said in its report. The index has seen extended periods of below-average supply chain stress and was in negative territory during the summer of 2019, ahead of the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. There was also an extended period of below-normal supply chain stress between roughly 2011 and 2016. But price pressures driven by non-energy service factors stripped of housing are "having the most trouble" abating, Williams said.

☆ Key inflation data and earnings reports loom as labor market signals a slowing U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials have been pointing to the tight labor market as an area of concern for inflation, using it as evidence that it hasn't tightened rates enough. After months of strategists and investors complaining that earnings estimates are too high, they've started to fall — but with a catch. If the trough in earnings is close, then the stock market could be in for a big year. ET - Producer price index Friday: Earnings: UnitedHealth, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup, PNC Financial 8:30 a.m. ET - Fed H.8 data on assets and liabilities of U.S. commercial banks

If the fed funds rate is discounted by core PCE inflation, the real interest rate is currently a positive 0.275%, and rising. Using annual headline PCE inflation of 5% in February, the real fed funds rate is only -0.125%. Real policy rates were positive for at least two decades up until 2002. For its part, the Fed sees the real fed funds rate ending this year around +180 bps, based on its median fed funds and PCE inflation projections of 5.1% and 3.3%, respectively. Bank of America rates strategists think this is far too optimistic, and real policy rates will be much lower.

☆ Gold off one-year highs as dollar firms ahead of U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices slipped from one-year highs on Thursday as the dollar regained some ground, while investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to gage the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. The economic data points this week were major components supporting gold prices, he added, while also noting some profit-booking ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Wednesday's data showed the U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in March. While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. Markets see a 53.8% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar ahead of US payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File PhotoApril 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Thursday as the dollar firmed ahead of a much awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls report, as investors sought clarity on whether the Federal Reserve might take a breather on its monetary tightening path. * Investors now await Friday's non-farm payrolls report for March, with economists polled by Reuters expecting new jobs of about 240,000. * Markets see a 54.2% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. * While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal.

The slew of soft economic data has added to fears of an impending recession in the world's largest economy, putting a lid on risk appetite and sending traders in search of some safe haven assets. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% at 101.95, having slid to a two-month trough of 101.40 in the previous session. The Japanese yen also found some support from safe haven bids and was last roughly 0.2% higher at 131.01 per dollar. "Weak economic data continues to weigh in on investor sentiment, triggering a flight-to-safety bid," analysts at Westpac said in a note to clients. The soft data sent U.S. shares lower on Wednesday STX/ while Treasuries advanced, which saw the benchmark 10-year yield falling to its lowest since September .

The underlying trend though for the dollar remained tilted to the downside and Wednesday's U.S. private sector jobs numbers affirmed that. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting a cooling labor market. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. Another report on Wednesday also indicated continued economic weakness, this time in the services sector.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets labor under recession cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. If the tight U.S. labor market is finally unwinding, markets suspect the Federal Reserve's job may well done after all - but at the cost of a looming recession. With Wednesday's private sector jobs reading for March and Friday's national payrolls report ahead, U.S. interest rate markets were jolted again on Tuesday by surprisingly soft data on job vacancies that suggested cooling demand for staff. More decisively, the two-year Treasury yield plunged more than 20 basis points intraday to hover just above 3.8% on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Mounting recession concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 31: Skyscrapers loom over downtown Manhattan on March 31, 2022 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. We're seeing more signs that the U.S. economy is indeed slowing down following nine straight Federal Reserve rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets brush off OPEC as factories stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRelatively calm world markets have brushed off OPEC's latest twist and focussed more squarely on stalled global manufacturing and edgy U.S.-China relations. Crude oil prices held much of Monday's pop higher on the surprise weekend production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But Brent crude remains below levels seen just before the Silicon Valley Bank bust last month and is still tracking year-on-year declines of 20%. Strikingly, both short and long-term inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury markets , have barely budged since the OPEC news. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

☆ AMERICAS Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the implications of this sudden bout of financial instability - and its potential economic and policy fallout - were most clearly seen in the interest rate and bond markets. Implied terminal rates for the European Central Bank and Bank of England have been dramatically scaled back too - though one or two further hikes are still priced for those central banks. But the Fed rethink has led to seismic action on the U.S. Treasury market, with the biggest drop in 2-year Treasury yields on Monday since the stock market crash of 1987. Credit spreads in the corporate bond markets have also widened sharply as investors fear an economy-wide tightening of borrowing standards and financial conditions. It would certainly think twice about tightening policy again into this level of financial stress and bond market upheaval.

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