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(Photo by Alberto Pezzali/NurPhoto via Getty Images)LONDON — Stronger-than-expected January retail sales provided a glimmer of light for the struggling British economy on Friday — and suggest that the country's recession will be short-lived, according to some economists. Sales rebounded by 3.4% from December, according to the Office for National Statistics, the strongest monthly gain since April 2021. The latest figures follow the news of Thursday that the British economy entered a technical recession in the final quarter of 2023. British retail sales meanwhile remain 1.3% below their pre-pandemic level from February 2020, according to the ONS. Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said two months of higher sales volumes over the last three months were "promising" after 19 months of decline.
Persons: Alberto Pezzali, Joe Maher, Maher, , Kris Hamer, Hamer, Kallum Pickering, Pickering Organizations: Charing Cross, Getty, Office, National Statistics, Reuters, Gross, Capital Economics, British Retail Consortium Locations: Charing, London, England,
"The data confirm that German industry is still in recession," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC. Exports – which are a major cornerstone of the German economy – fell by 4.6% in December and 1.4%, or 1.562 trillion euros ($1.68 trillion), across the year. Meanwhile, factory orders data seemed promising at first glance as it reflected an 8.9% increase in December compared to November. "Orders excluding large-scale orders actually fell to a post-pandemic low," she added. For 2023 overall in comparison to the previous year, factory orders were down 5.9%.
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Christian Lindner, Holger Schmieding, , Franziska Palmas, Schmieding Organizations: Greens, Federal, Economic Affairs, of Finance, Berenberg Bank, CNBC, Industrial, Capital Economics Locations: Germany, Europe
Read previewThe US commercial real estate market saw a steep drop in investment last year, with capital flows into the market plummeting by more than 50% to the lowest level since 2012. That brought the full-year investment total to $348 billion, a 52% decline from 2022, according to CBRE. CBRE noted a 91% year-over-year drop in direct real estate company investments to $1.4 billion in Q4, citing increased financing costs. New York took the lead with $33 billion in investment, followed by Los Angeles at $30 billion. AdvertisementThe dimming outlook for commercial real estate —offices in particular — is linked to the tighter financing conditions that many commercial landlords now face.
Persons: , CBRE, Barry Sternlicht Organizations: Service, Business, New York, Los, Starwood Capital, Capital Locations: Los Angeles
That’s added as much as two weeks to a typical East-to-West journey for container ships, and 18 days for slower bulk carriers and tankers. Global container shipping costs are less than half their level during the coronavirus pandemic, which peaked at $10,380 in September 2021. Even so, he said, container shipping is “very cost-effective” as many goods can be packed into a single shipping container. The Galaxy Leader cargo ship is escorted by Houthi boats in the Red Sea on November 20, 2023. Fewer oil tankers have avoided the Red Sea than container ships, which the Houthi militants more closely identify with Western countries allied with Israel.
Persons: Richard Meade, Tesla, Peter Sand, Good Hope, That’s, , Lloyd —, , ” Simon MacAdam, ” Maersk, Meade Organizations: London CNN —, Hamas, Lloyds, CNN, Maersk, Hapag, Carriers, Global, Container, Capital Economics, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, Galaxy Leader, Houthi Military Media, Reuters Locations: Iran, Suez, Asia, Europe, Germany, Swedish, Africa, South Africa’s, Good, Sand, Vietnam, Drewry, Shanghai, China, Rotterdam, Netherlands, Xeneta, Israel, United States, Canada
Office-to-residential conversions are up 357% since 2021, according to a report from ResiClubThere's $150 billion in office mortgages set to come due in 2024. Last year, about $541 billion of commercial real estate debt officially matured. AdvertisementBy 2027, $2.2 trillion of commercial real estate debt is set to mature, Capital Economics said. ResiClub cofounder Lance Lambert pointed out that commercial buildings aren't all designed or constructed to be repurposed as living spaces. "It makes sense given the wave of expired leases and vacant office buildings," Lambert said.
Persons: , Moody's, CommercialEdge, Lance Lambert, Lambert, " Lambert Organizations: Service, ResiClub, Federal Reserve, Washington DC, Dallas, Research, Capital Economics, Business Locations: RentCafe, ResiClub, Washington, New York
ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkey has seen its fifth central bank leader depart in as many years as Hafize Gaye Erkan, the first woman in the top role, stepped down after just eight months in the job. Photos You Should See View All 45 ImagesHere are key things to know about the central bank shakeup and what it means for Turkey's battered economy:WHY IS THERE A NEW CENTRAL BANK LEADER? Erkan resigned after weeks of media stories about her father’s undue influence in the central bank’s Istanbul office. Previous changes in central bank leadership has seen Erdogan row back on efforts to bring inflation under control through interest rate hikes. He was brought in as the bank’s deputy head at the same time Simsek took over the Finance Ministry and Erkan was appointed to lead the central bank.
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, — Erkan, , Fatih Karahan, Mehmet Simsek, Erdogan, Erkan, Karahan, Simsek's, Simsek, Liam Peach, Selcuki, ” “ It’s, ” Selcuki Organizations: , Finance, WHO, FATIH, Finance Ministry, University of Pennsylvania, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Amazon, Capital Economics, Istanbul Economy Research Locations: ISTANBUL, — Turkey, Turkey, Istanbul, Simsek, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia, New York, Ankara
Europe narrowly avoids a recession
  + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
London CNN —Europe’s economy avoided ending 2023 in a recession by the narrowest of margins, official data showed Tuesday. In the July-to-September quarter, GDP dipped 0.1%. Europe’s economy has struggled to regain momentum following the pandemic, hamstrung by high inflation and rapid interest rate hikes to combat it. The French economy, Europe’s second-largest, stagnated in the fourth quarter but grew 0.7% over the whole of 2023. He expects the eurozone economy to “flatline” in the first half of 2024 “as the effects of past monetary tightening continue to feed through and fiscal policy becomes more restrictive.”
Persons: , Russia’s, , Christoph Weil, , ” “, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Eurostat, Union, EU, , Commerzbank, European Central Bank, Capital Economics, ECB Locations: Ukraine, Europe, Italy, Spain
Inside Tesla's make-or-break earnings report
  + stars: | 2024-01-24 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're previewing Tesla's make-or-break earnings report. And then there's the ultimatum Elon Musk issued to Tesla's board about wanting more voting rights or taking his AI projects elsewhere. Business Insider's Jennifer Sor has a roundup of what five Wall Street firms expect ahead of Tesla's earnings report. TeslaHow Musk pitches Tesla's year ahead will also be a telling signal, Nora told me.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Stephen Lam, Elon Musk, Jennifer Sor, Nora Naughton, BI's, Tesla, Nora, Kiran Raichura, Raichura, Goldman Sachs, Kraft Heinz, Sam Altman, it's, Glenn Harvey, Eddie Trunk, Brooks Kraft, Staples Organizations: Service, New Hampshire Republican, Tesla, Reuters, Capital Economics, Monster Beverage, Google, Google Google, Netflix, BI, of Fame, Apple, IBM, Brooks, Brooks Kraft LLC, Getty
BANGKOK (AP) — Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday after Japan reported its exports jumped nearly 10% in December, though shares in Tokyo declined. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2% to 15,569.39, helped by gains in technology companies like e-commerce giant Alibaba, which surged 3.8%. The index rose 0.3% to 4,864.60. United Airlines flew 5.3% higher after it also reported stronger profit for the last three months of 2023 than analysts expected. Among Tuesday’s headliners was Verizon Communications, which rose 6.7% after beating analysts’ profit estimates.
Persons: Wang Jiangjun, Hang Seng, ” Gabriel Ng, India's Sensex, Gamble, D.R, Horton, Brent Organizations: Japan, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Capital Economics, Nikkei, Bank of, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Procter, United Airlines, Boeing, Max, Tesla, Intel, Verizon Communications, General Electric, Analysts, Federal Reserve, Treasury, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: BANGKOK, Tokyo, China, Shanghai, Bank of Japan, South Korea, Australia, Bangkok
Commercial mortgage borrowing will rise 29% this year, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates. AdvertisementCommercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is forecast to surge 29% from last year's estimated total of $444 billion, the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates. "2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade," MBA Head of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell said in the report. AdvertisementTighter monetary policy since 2022 has pushed up borrowing costs across the commercial real estate market, and resulted in stricter lending standards among mortgage originators. Raichura expects prices to drop off another 10% this year, while a December outlook from NBER outlined that total commercial real estate losses could amount to $160 billion.
Persons: , Jamie Woodwell, Kiran Raichura, Woodwell Organizations: Mortgage, Association, Service, Real, Federal Reserve
Read previewThis year will be when the distress brewing in commercial real estate finally reaches its breaking point, according to Capital Economics. The research firm pointed to pessimism that has clouded the commercial real estate sector for the past year. Around $541 billion of commercial real estate debt officially matured in 2023, though fallout was muted as many loans were granted extensions, the firm said. Meanwhile, property investors like Brookfield are raising cash to potentially buy cheap commercial real estate properties that hit the market. AdvertisementSome commentators have warned of an even more severe crash coming for commercial real estate.
Persons: , Kiran Raichura, Raichura, Kyle Bass Organizations: Service, Capital Economics, Business, Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Brookfield
Inflation measures how fast prices are rising for goods and services — anything from concert tickets and haircuts to groceries and furniture. That means further broad disinflation likely won't come from consumer goods, economists said. In fact, attacks by Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea threaten to disrupt a key transit corridor and may trigger higher goods inflation if it persists, El-Erian explained. While down from more than 7% last year, services inflation still sits at 5.3%. Why this may all be 'nonsense'Not all economists think the last mile of disinflation will be harder than what came before, however.
Persons: Robyn Beck, Mohamed El, We're, Gargi Chaudhuri, Houthi, Erian, Chaudhuri, Mark Zandi, Sarah House, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Afp, Getty, Allianz, Queens ' College, University of Cambridge, CNBC, Americas, BlackRock, Finance, of Labor Statistics, Labor, Moody's Analytics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Capital Economics Locations: Los Angeles, U.S, Wells Fargo
Grim retail sales suggest possible recession for Britain
  + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Shoppers walk past shops on Regent Street on the final weekday before Christmas in London on December 22, 2023. Britain's economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter and flatlined in the previous three months, official data showed Friday, raising fears of a recession before an election due next year. The Office for National Statistics said sales volumes fell by 3.2% during the key trading month, after a 1.4% rise in November. Volumes were 0.9% lower in the three months to December 2023, compared with the previous quarter. Trade body British Retail Consortium said that the figures "capped a difficult year for retailers" and showed that Black Friday sales ate into Christmas spending.
Persons: HENRY NICHOLLS, Alex Kerr, Kerr Organizations: Getty Images, National Statistics, Reuters, ONS, Capital Economics, Trade, British Retail Consortium Locations: London, AFP
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey of Consumers showed a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021 and up 21.4% from a year ago. On a two-month basis, sentiment showed its largest increase since 1991, said Joanne Hsu, the survey's director. "Consumer views were supported by confidence that inflation has turned a corner and strengthening income expectations," Hsu said. Along with the improved outlook on general conditions, survey respondents displayed more confidence that inflation is coming down. The outlook for the inflation rate a year from now declined to 2.9%, down from 3.1% in December for the lowest reading since December 2020.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Hsu, Andrew Hunter, Stocks Organizations: Veteran, The Department of Labor, The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey, Consumers, Republicans, Federal Reserve, AAA, Capital Economics Locations: Long Beach , California
“The Argentine economy is in such bad shape that it has to be shaken up. President Milei and his team are doing exactly that,” she said during an interview in Davos. He has also devalued Argentina’s currency. However, some of Milei’s measures, such as the devaluation, are also likely to stabilize Argentina’s economy in the medium term, Sperrfechter said. Among his most radical plans, Milei has pledged to ditch the peso as Argentina’s official currency and replace it with the US dollar.
Persons: London CNN —, ” “, ” Javier Milei, , Milei, Juan Peron, Kristalina Georgieva, CNN’s Richard Quest Wednedsay, Milei’s, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Sperrfechter, It’s Organizations: London CNN, Economic, Council, Foreign Relations, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Argentine, Capital Economics, CNN, , US Federal Reserve Locations: Davos, Switzerland, Argentina, Argentine, US, “ Argentina
Delinquency rates on loans backed by office properties jumped to 6.5% in the fourth quarter, an MBA survey found. Out of all the commercial real estate loan delinquency rates tracked by the survey, office loans led the pack. AdvertisementFinancial troubles continue to plague the office market, which led an increase in commercial real estate loan delinquency rates. Zooming out, the commercial real estate sector has been in a pinch ever since interest rate hikes made borrowing money a lot more expensive. AdvertisementStill, MBA's survey found that while the office market segment of commercial real estate is still wobbling, other slices of the sector are recovering.
Persons: , multifamily, Jamie Woodwell Organizations: Service, Financial, Mortgage Bankers Association, Capital Economics
That pushed Taiwan’s trade surplus with China to an enormous $80.5 billion in 2023. For Taiwan, China has been its favorite investment stop for decades. China imports electronic components or precision machine tools from Taiwan, assembles them and exports the finished products to global markets. China may respond to a DPP victory by putting military and economic pressure on the island, Vest said. In 2022, China retaliated after Pelosi’s visit by banning imports of a range of food products from Taiwan.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Lai Ching, Lai, , Charlie Vest, Nancy Pelosi’s, Tsai Ing, Kevin McCarthy, they’re, ” Vest, Mike Kai Chen, Vest, there’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, Democratic Progressive Party, US, Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs, Imports, Hsinchu Science, Bloomberg, Getty, Capital Economics, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Apple, Foxconn, Analysts, Atlantic Locations: China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Beijing, Taiwan Strait, California, United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, “ Taiwan, Hsinchu, Hsinchu Science Park
Exports for the year as a whole fell for the first time since 2016 as global demand for Chinese-made goods (other than cars) slowed, according to customs data released on Friday. Exports measured in US dollar terms stood at $3.38 trillion in 2023, down by 4.6% compared to the year before. The last time China registered a decline in overseas shipments was in 2016, when exports fell 7.7%. “Sluggish external demand has hit China’s exports.”He expects China will continue to face “difficulties” on export markets as global demand is likely to remain weak and “protectionism and unilateralism” hinder growth, he added. The United States remained China’s largest single-country trading partner in 2023, accounting for 11.2% of total trade.
Persons: ” Lyu, ” Goldman Sachs, Price, won’t, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Imports, Administration of Customs, Bloomberg, Getty, PPI, Capital Economics, AFP, ASEAN, European Union Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Russia, United States, Washington, Taicang Port, China's, Jiangsu, Southeast Asia, That’s, , Japan
How the Red Sea crisis could clobber the global economy
  + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
The Suez Canal accounts for 10-15% of world trade, which includes oil exports, and for 30% of global container shipping volumes. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told the Financial Times Thursday that re-establishing safe passage through the Red Sea could take “months.” “It could potentially have quite significant consequences on global (economic) growth,” he added. Ikea has warned of shipment delays and potential shortages of certain products due to disruption in the Red Sea. Some ocean carriers that ordinarily transit through the Panama Canal had rerouted to the Suez Canal before the attacks in the Red Sea escalated, according to logistics company C.H. Matthew Burgess, vice-president of global ocean services at the firm, said global shipping capacity would be constrained for a while yet.
Persons: Joe Biden, Vincent Clerc, Germany’s, Mohamed, El Erian, ” Simon MacAdam, Lily Millard, Ben May, Good Hope, , ” It’s, Abercrombie &, Nathan Howard, , ” Philip Damas, , Judah Levine, Levine, Eric Thayer, Carolina Klint, Marsh McLennan, Robinson, Matthew Burgess, we’ve, Gene Seroka, Burgess, C.H Organizations: London CNN, British, Energy, World Bank, Maersk, MSC, Lloyd, CMA CGM, Financial Times, Global, Germany’s Kiel Institute, Allianz, Bank, Capital Economics, Oxford Economics, European Automobile Manufacturers ’ Association, Ikea, CNN, Abercrombie, Abercrombie & Fitch, Bloomberg, Getty, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, Marsh, United, Port Locations: Iran, Crocs, Suez, Yemen, Gaza, Germany, Brent, Gulf, Oman, South Africa, Germany’s Kiel, Red, Israel, Good, Europe, , China, Asia, Los Angeles, United States, Panama, Rotterdam, of Los Angeles, of New York, New Jersey
The commercial real estate sector could hit its breaking point as property values keep falling. That could bring on a wave of bankruptcies, forced sales, and mergers, the firm said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementCommercial real estate could face a reckoning this year as property values continue to fall, according to Capital Economics. The research firm pointed to the difficulties commercial real estate faced last year, with property values falling an estimated 11%.
Persons: Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Business
The national office vacancy rate has hit a record 19.6%, according to Moody's Analytics. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAmerica's offices are trending in the wrong direction, even as the broader US economy looks to be on solid footing. According to a report from Moody's Analytics, which described the US office market as being in "uncharted territory" in a report on Monday, the national office vacancy rate climbed 40 basis points last quarter to a record-breaking 19.6%.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Moody's, Capital
CNBC Daily Open: Inflation mission accomplished?
  + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, , Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: San Anselmo , California
CNBC Daily Open: Inflation goal in view
  + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Brown | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.
Persons: Frederic J, Brown, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, , Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: Rosemead , California
A gauge the Federal Reserve uses for inflation rose slightly in November and edged closer to the central bank's goal. On a six-month basis, core PCE increased 1.9%, indicating that if current trends continue the Fed essentially has reached its goal. "The slowing in core inflation opens the door for fed funds rate cuts in 2024; the timing will depend on core PCE numbers over the next few months." Though policymakers watch both measures, they are more concerned with core prices as a longer-run inflation gauge. A 2.7% slide in energy prices and a 0.1% decrease in food helped hold back inflation for the month.
Persons: Dow Jones, Andrew Hunter, Gus Faucher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Markets, PNC Financial Services, Fed, PCE, Federal, CNBC PRO
Retail sales rose 0.3% in November, stronger than the 0.2% decline in October and better than the Dow Jones estimate for a decrease of 0.1%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.2%, also better than the forecast for no change. Stripping out autos and gas, sales rose 0.6%. Sales held up despite a 2.9% slide in receipts at gas stations, as energy prices broadly slumped during the month. Gas station sales were off 9.4% on a 12-month basis.
Persons: Dow Jones, Andrew Hunter Organizations: Commerce Department, Capital Economics, . Gas, Labor Department, Economists, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, CNBC PRO
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