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☆ China ramps up construction on new Antarctic station –report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Michael Martina | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] A satellite view with overlays shows areas to be developed at the new Chinese station under construction, on Inexpressible Island, Antarctica, January 2, 2023. CSIS told Reuters that while the U.S. still maintains a larger research presence in Antarctica – including the biggest facility in its McMurdo station – China's footprint is growing faster. China's fifth station will be 200 miles (320 km) from the McMurdo station, it said. Under the 1959 Antarctic Treaty, to which China is party, activities on the continent are restricted to "peaceful purposes." A 2022 Pentagon report said China's new Antarctic infrastructure was likely intended in part to strengthen its future claims to natural resources and maritime access and improve PLA capabilities.

☆ The US could lose up to 900 warplanes fighting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan but would emerge victorious, says think tank
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Alia Shoaib | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A think tank ran war game analyses for a conflict between the US and China over Taiwan. One of the analysts told Insider the US and Taiwan would likely succeed in beating back a Chinese invasion. The Washington-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, conducted war games last year to imagine how such a conflict would play out. The war games are designed to help envision how conflicts would play out. China conducted military drills around Taiwan following Pelosi's visit and said that further "training and war preparation" would continue, The Guardian reported.

☆ U.S.-Philippine alliance 'moving into a new era' with war drills: CSIS
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S.-Philippine alliance 'moving into a new era' with their largest-ever war drills: Think tankGregory Poling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says if former Philippine Rodrigo Duterte "wasn't good enough for China, then no Philippine president will ever be good enough for China."

☆ Most Americans are not confident in how China's Xi will handle world affairs, Pew survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Meanwhile, Xi has consolidated his power in China and is seeking to to bolster China's global influence. It is unclear how aware Pew survey respondents were of such world events and developments. Economic cooperationU.S.-China cooperation on economic matters was one of two areas in which Pew survey respondents remained more optimistic. General pessimismPew survey respondents mostly did not see areas of potential cooperation between the U.S. and China. Certainly not the climate," the Pew report said, citing a 25-year-old unnamed woman who participated in a focus group.

☆ Russia's President Vladimir Putin could be a 'dead man walking,' a former CIA counterintelligence chief told an interviewer
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Isobel Van Hagen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A former CIA official laid out why he believes Putin will be 'eliminated' as leader of Russia. In an interview with The Sun, James Olson said, "I think Putin will be taken out." Olson said there is a "strong undercurrent of opposition to Putin" in the military and among oligarchs. He would not discount the most dramatic option in this possibility, saying, "I think Putin will be taken out. Olson believes Putin's generals are "disgusted" by the futility and the carnage of the fighting in Ukraine.

☆ Vietnam sends ship to track Chinese vessel patrolling Russian gas field in EEZ -data
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Francesco Guarascio | Thomson Reuters | Francesco Leads A Team Of Reporters In Vietnam That Covers Top Financial | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

HANOI, March 27 (Reuters) - A Vietnamese ship monitored a Chinese Coast Guard vessel on Saturday in a Russian-operated gas field in Vietnam's South China Sea exclusive economic zone (EEZ), data show - the latest Chinese patrol in a pattern stretching more than a year. The patrols mirror Chinese Coast Guard activity elsewhere in the South China Sea, where such vessels have been used to assert territorial claims. A spokeswoman for Vietnam's foreign ministry said on Friday that Vietnam acts in the South China Sea “to protect its legal rights”. Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Brunei are among other countries that have competing claims in the South China Sea. Chinese Coast Guard vessels have also patrolled the Tuna block; in January, Indonesia deployed a warship to monitor a Chinese ship there.

☆ Alaska oil drilling protesters disrupt White House climate adviser appearance
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Companies Conocophillips FollowWASHINGTON, March 20 (Reuters) - Protesters criticizing President Joseph Biden's approval of an oil drilling project in Alaska on Monday blocked an administration official from delivering a speech about U.S. climate leadership. Ali Zaidi, White House climate adviser, was unable to address the event on the "Future of U.S. A dozen protesters holding a sign saying "End Fossil Fuels" chanted: "Keep your promise, no new drilling" for several minutes, preventing Zaidi from starting his remarks. Protesters believe the Willow decision may overshadow Biden's other climate achievements. The administration has been touting climate investments stemming from its signature climate law called the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)and its bipartisan infrastructure law.

☆ CSIS' Jon Alterman discusses deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSaudi-Iranian deal: Saudis demonstrating they're 'in control of their own destiny,' think tank saysJon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies says for Saudi Arabia, not "hiding behind the United States … is part of a broader recalibration."

☆ Factbox: Russia fires hypersonic Kinzhal missiles in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 9 (Reuters) - Russia said on Thursday it had fired hypersonic Kinzhal missiles as part of a massive wave of strikes on Ukraine, in which Kyiv said at least six civilians had been killed. - The Kinzhal is one of six "next generation" weapons unveiled by President Vladimir Putin in a speech in March 2018. - Russia sent fighter jets armed with Kinzhal missiles to Syria for the first time in 2021, military analysts say. - Russia's defence ministry claimed to have fired a Kinzhal missile at a munitions dump in southwestern Ukraine on March 19, 2022, the first known use of the weapon in combat. It has since fired Kinzhal missiles on several other occasions in Ukraine.

☆ Treasury Secretary Yellen warns that losses tied to climate change could 'cascade through the financial system'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Emma Newburger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivers remarks on "Next Steps in the Evolution of Development Finance" at a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, U.S., February 9, 2023. \Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday warned that climate change is already taking a significant economic toll and could cause extensive losses to the U.S. financial system in the coming years. Yellen made the remarks during the first meeting with the Climate-related Financial Risk Advisory Committee (CFRAC), an advisory board that was set up last year by the Financial Stability Oversight Council in an effort to bolster U.S. action to minimize climate risk to the economy. "As climate change intensifies, natural disasters and warming temperatures can lead to declines in asset values that could cascade through the financial system," she said during the meeting. "A delayed and disorderly transition to a net-zero economy can lead to shocks to the financial system as well."

☆ Russian troops ordered to fight with 'shovels' in hand-to-hand combat, UK defense intel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Bethany Dawson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russian soldiers were told to fight with only "firearms and shovels," the Ministry of Defence saidThe shovels are believed to be the MPL-50 entrenching tool, designed in1869, said the UK ministry. "The 'shovels' are likely entrenching tools being employed for hand-to-hand combat," said the briefing. It is thought that the "shovels" in question are the renowned MPL-50 entrenching tools first designed in 1869. The increase in hand-to-hand combat in Ukraine was due to a declining number of troops, artillery, and munition, it said. Indeed, it has been reported that Russian forces have been deploying "barrier troops" or "blocking units" to shoot Russian soldiers who defect and desert the war.

☆ Fact Check-CBC News headline on Trudeau calling for investigation into Canada’s security services is fabricated
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Reuters Fact Check | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Canadian broadcaster CBC News did not publish a headline reporting that the country’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called for an investigation into the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), despite a screenshot shared online. A spokesperson for CBC News told Reuters that no such headline was published by the outlet. A search through the CBC News website did not reveal the headline (archive.is/wip/mUwgo). A Twitter advanced search via CBC News’ Twitter account did not reveal any related social media post, either (archive.is/wip/24bz7). Meanwhile, Reuters found no credible media outlet reporting that Trudeau has called for an investigation into the intelligence agency (archive.is/wip/5oHJF).

And it's little surprise the International Monetary Fund forecast Britain would be the only economy of the G7 to contract this year. But certainly the potential for improved trade relations with the UK's biggest trading partner is clear. Unicredit this month cited estimates that the UK economy would underperform by 5-7% over 10 years if it remains outside the EU single market and customs union. It may even have been a key spur to this week's breakthrough given the frayed geopolitical backdrop. President Joe Biden has long insisted there would be no progress on a U.S. deal with Britain until the Northern Irish conundrum was resolved.

☆ More of Russia's soldiers have died in Ukraine — a war Putin thought would be over in days — than in all its wars since World War II combined, new analysis finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Chris Panella | Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

More Russian soldiers have died fighting in Ukraine than in all of Russia's wars since World War II combined. Putin originally thought the war would be over in days, but Russia has failed in its objectives. According to a brief from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), between 60,000 and 70,000 Russian soldiers have been killed on the battlefield in Ukraine. When Russia invaded Ukraine in late February 2022, Putin originally believed he could capture Kyiv in a matter of days. But Russian generals seriously overestimated Russia's military and underestimated Ukrainian forces, resulting in poor strategy, command failures, and completely mismanaged logistics.

☆ Canada's Trudeau denies report that Liberals told to drop candidate over China ties
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Chinese government preferred Han Dong, a Chinese Canadian, over another Chinese Canadian Liberal, who was passed over in favor of Han, said Global News, a national broadcaster, citing anonymous security sources in a story posted online. The article said the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) urged Trudeau's "team" to rescind Han's candidacy. "Dong is an outstanding member of our team and suggestions that he is somehow not loyal to Canada should not be entertained," Trudeau told a news conference in Mississauga. The Chinese embassy in Ottawa did not immediately respond to a request to comment on the Global report. Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by Alistair Bell and Stephen CoatesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ North Korea and Russia are ramping up trade in oil, coal and weapons as Ukraine war sanctions send Moscow to pariah state
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A new CSIS report analyzed satellite imagery that suggests significantly increased trade between Russia and North Korea. Wartime sanctions have pushed Moscow to turn to railroad trade with Pyongyang, the researchers wrote. Trade between North Korea and Russia hit roughly $48 million in 2019, International Trade Centre data compiled by the Wall Street Journal shows. That dropped to nearly zero in 2021, with North Korea closing off its borders during the pandemic. Similarly, over recent years, Russia has sided with North Korea in geopolitical conversations over sanctions on the Kim Jong-un's regime.

☆ North Korea shows off design for new, more dangerous missile while rolling out enough ICBMs to possibly overwhelm US defenses
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

North Korea boasted its progress on a new and dangerous solid-fueled missile at a military parade. In recent years, North Korea has indicated that its missile program is pivoting toward the use of solid fuel, Ian Williams, deputy director of the Missile Defense Project at the CSIS, told Insider. North Korea has displayed large canisters before, but the ones displayed on Wednesday appear to be more legitimate than those in the past, Williams said. This is because the defense system's interceptors would not have the capacity to engage all credible threats. Furthermore, missile defense should be thought of as one part of a larger "missile defeat complex," he added.

A far-right faction of House Republicans is pushing against continued US aid to Ukraine. Those concerns ratcheted up amid House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's tumultuous journey to secure the gavel last month. Kyiv, for its part, has kept a close eye on Congress' dynamics since the GOP won a narrow House majority in the November midterms. "This GOP House majority will demand more oversight, transparency, and accountability to ensure assistance to Ukraine is used as intended," McCaul said in a statement. "Most Europeans don't think that suddenly the US is going to cut support to Ukraine," Araud said, adding that nobody anticipates Washington will "dump Ukraine."

Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November with that goal in mind and both leaders pledged more frequent communications. He has also sidelined some of his "wolf warrior" diplomats whose strident rhetoric alienated many of China's trade partners. Despite such pragmatic rhetoric, China's actions - especially its military activity around Taiwan and in the South China Sea - have not moderated, analysts said. Washington hopes for incremental progress on more specific but vital matters such as securing China's cooperation on fentanyl, global health, climate change and the cases of U.S. citizens detained there. That ... is more than deeply frustrating," said another source familiar with the administration's thinking, adding that China has rebuffed Washington's "very specific" proposals.

☆ Worried about World War III, Trump says he wants an 'impenetrable' shield like Iron Dome to protect the US from hypersonic weapons. A missile defense expert says it's a long shot.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Trump recently said the US should build a nationwide missile defense shield like Israel's Iron Dome. It is unclear if Trump wants the Iron Dome system defending American cities or if he wants a new shield specifically designed for hypersonic threats. Either way, his plan for an "impenetrable" defense is unrealistic, a missile defense expert told Insider. 'There's always some way to get through'Right now, the US has a homeland missile defense system called the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD). While Trump appears to be questionably framing the missile defense situation, there are still certain things that the US can do to strengthen its homeland missile defense, Williams noted.

☆ A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a real and dangerous possibility that could wreck armies and ruin the global economy worse than the 1929 stock market crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-29 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Experts say the military and economic impacts for could be catastrophic, and not just for China and Taiwan. Whether it's 2030, 2027, 2025, or even this year, experts say it could wreak havoc on the global economy and take a devastating toll on the militaries involved. CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty ImagesThough China's actions have stirred fears of a possible Chinese attack, the US military assesses that an invasion of Taiwan would prove extremely difficult for the Chinese military. Threats to one company could spell catastropheLooking at this situation from an economic perspective, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could mean trillions of dollars in losses and a serious global recession. Others have argued it's in the self interest of both China and the United State to overplay the likelihood of a Taiwan invasion.

☆ A string of Russian failures got scores of troops killed in a Ukrainian strike, and Moscow's reaction only made things worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Scores of Russian troops were killed over the New Year holiday in a Ukrainian HIMARS strike. A string of Russian command failures allowed the deadly attack to happen. If they did, it is unclear if Russian troops were explicitly told not to use their phones and did anyways, or if these rules were actually enforced. It backfired though, as Russian milbloggers expressed anger with Russian military leadership after it came out that Russia's claims were made up. The Ukrainian strike on Makiivka is not the only time where Kyiv has been able to take advantage of Russian command failures during the nearly 11-month-long war, either.

☆ The Ukraine war rages on without a clear end in sight. Here are 6 ways the conflict with Russia could play out
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Alia Shoaib | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, there does not appear to be a clear end in sight. Russian victoryWhen it began its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russia's goal was to take over the country completely. Rather than taking more territory, Russia's objectives in the current stage of war seem to be to weaken Ukraine's resources, economy, and army. Nuclear war and/or NATO interventionPutin has repeatedly made nuclear threats since he began the invasion of Ukraine and, in September, claimed that it was "not a bluff." One senior official previously said that a Russian nuclear strike could trigger a "physical response" from NATO itself.

☆ North Korea says it tested 'high-thrust solid-fuel motor' for apparent ICBM development
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Soo-Hyang Choi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/5] A view of a "high-thrust solid-fuel motor" test to develop a new strategic weapon, at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Tongchang-ri, North Korea, December 15, 2022, in this photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERSSEOUL, Dec 16 (Reuters) - North Korea has tested a "high-thrust solid-fuel motor", state media reported on Friday, as the isolated country seeks to develop a new strategic weapon and speeds up its nuclear and missile programmes. The static firing test proved the motor's reliability and stability, providing a "guarantee for the development of another new-type strategic weapon system", KCNA added. North Korea has been working to build more solid-fuel missiles, which are more stable and can be launched with almost no warning or preparation time. North Korea has conducted an unprecedented number of missile tests this year, including an ICBM capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, despite international bans and sanctions.

☆ Vietnam in big push to expand South China Sea outposts - U.S. think tank
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( David Brunnstrom | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Vietnam has conducted a major expansion of dredging and landfill work at several of its South China Sea outposts in the second half of this year, signaling an intent to significantly fortify its claims in the disputed waterway, a U.S. think tank reported on Wednesday. Basing its findings on commercial satellite imagery, CSIS's Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) said the effort included expanded landfill work at four features and new dredging at five others. Tennent Reef, which previously only hosted two small pillbox structures, now had 64 acres (26 hectares)of artificial land, the report said. "But Vietnam’s dredging and landfill activities in 2022 are substantial and signal an intent to significantly fortify its occupied features in the Spratlys," the report said. China claims most of the South China Sea and has established military outposts on artificial islands it has built there.

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