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20% housing correction is coming, says Peter Boockvar
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email20% housing correction is coming, says Peter BoockvarBleakley Advisors' Peter Boockvar agrees with the Dallas Fed's warning about the state of the housing market and warns that a 20 percent correction is coming. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Julie Biel.
This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.
By 2025 or 2026, the United States may hit a bleak milestone: Federal interest payments could exceed the country’s entire defense budget, according to Moody’s Analytics. The Fed kept interest rates very low to stimulate growth (and encourage inflation) and investors around the world clamored to buy US debt. But White of Moody’s notes that gross interest payments include interest the government pays to itself and said net interest is the more relevant category to watch here. In a best-case scenario, the United States grows its way out of the debt mess, with the economy expanding more rapidly than interest payments. With interest rates going up, the sovereign bond bubble is unwinding,” Boockvar said.
This earnings season's tech wreck could continue to pressure the Nasdaq Composite, while other sectors may help broader indices deflect some of the pain. Amazon 's stock was hammered after the company missed estimates and gave a disappointing sales forecast for the current quarter . The two were members of FANG, a group of four favorite stocks that joined other Big Tech in carrying the market to highs before the bear market. Apple's report has been much anticipated by investors, since it is 7% of the S & P 500. "A favorable reaction could lift tech off its lows and help extend the relief rally in the S & P. A gap down would do the opposite."
REUTERS/Cheney Orr/File PhotoWASHINGTON, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Two in five U.S. voters say they are worried about threats of violence or voter intimidation at polling stations during the country's midterm elections, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. But officials in Arizona, a key battleground, have already asked the federal government to probe a case of possible voter intimidation, after people casting ballots were conspicuously filmed and followed. Kathy Boockvar, a former top election official for Pennsylvania, said fears of voter intimidation and violence run counter to American tradition. Among the registered voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos, 43% were concerned about threats of violence or voter intimidation while voting in person. About two-thirds of Republicans and one-third of Democrats think voter fraud is a widespread problem, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
Peter Boockvar digs in on today's market action
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeter Boockvar digs in on today's market actionBleakley Financial Group's Peter Boockvar on earnings and today's market action. With CNBC's Brian Sullivan and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Julie Biel.
Another hotter-than-expected inflation report puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively, but that also could tip the economy into a recession. Stocks declined and Treasury yields rose, after September's consumer price index showed inflation running at a 0.4% pace. In the futures market, traders bet the Fed would drive its fed funds to near 5% by next April, up from 4.65% on Wednesday. The terminal rate is the end rate where the Fed would stop its hiking for this cycle. Fed officials have been emphasizing that once they finish raising rates, they intend to hold them there to continue the fight against inflation.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe'll have to watch and see for any dislocations in the Treasury market, says Bleakley's BoockvarSandy Villere, Villere Balanced Fund co-portfolio manager, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial chief investment officer, join 'The Exchange' to discuss if there's real contagion risk in England, how England's recent news impacts Villere's thesis and more.
Here’s the thing: The Fed right now is wearing blinders, and it only cares about bringing down inflation, my colleague Paul R. La Monica writes. The Weed Gummy TheoryThere’s an analogy offered by investment analyst Peter Boockvar last month that I can’t stop thinking about. He compared the Fed to an eager but inexperienced consumer of weed gummies, which, notoriously, take longer than anyone expects to kick in. Bankruptcies: Rate hikes make it more expensive for companies to pay down debt, increasing the risk of corporate bankruptcies and defaults. The so-called PPI, which tracks what suppliers charge other businesses for goods and services, showed prices going up 8.5% from a year ago.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo investment managers give their thoughts on the health of the global economyPeter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group, and Josh Wein, Portfolio Manager at Hennessy Funds, join Worldwide Exchange to discuss the markets on the heels of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's comments about the economy.
Stocks fell on Friday as traders evaluated September’s jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate continuing to decline and sparked an increase in interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 682 points, or 2.3%, to 29,264.39. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.9% to 10,651.75, which is less than 1% above its low of the year. Friday’s jobs numbers showed the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, slightly below a Dow Jones estimate of 275,000. Friday’s losses trimmed the gains for what started out as a big comeback week for stocks.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed should slow the pace of its rate increases, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down what's causing stock futures to tumble ahead of the open on Friday.
Navigating rates and volatility
  + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNavigating rates and volatilityBleakley Financial Group's Peter Boockvar, Seymour Asset Management's Tim Seymour and ProShares Simeon Hyman join CNBC's Frank Holland and the 'CNBC Special: Markets in Turmoil' to discuss market reaction to the Fed's latest rate increase and where they see stocks heading for the rest of the year.
"It's clear the economy is slowing yet inflation is ramping and the central bank is compelled to address it. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell steadfastly warned the Fed will do what it needs to do to crush inflation. Arone said around the globe, the common threads are slowing economies and high inflation with central banks engaged to curb high prices. Strategists say the U.S. central bank particularly rattled markets by forecasting a new higher interest rate forecast, for the level where it believes it will stop hiking. The Fed's projected 4.6% high water rate for next year is considered to be its "terminal rate," or end rate.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPace of rate hikes is putting the economy and markets into a 'danger zone,' says Peter BoockvarBleakley Financial Group's Peter Boockvar on yesterday's Fed rate decision. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Karen Finerman, Bonawyn Eison, Dan Nathan and Brian Kelly.
London (CNN Business) When the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates to combat decades-high inflation, Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the central bank could increase borrowing costs without inflicting too much damage on the economy. Breaking it down: The central bank didn't go as hard as some investors thought it might. The Fed's main interest rate is now set between 3% and 3.25%. Plus, many factors pushing up inflation numbers — such as the war in Ukraine and drought conditions — are outside the central bank's control. Central banks have "no choice" but to increase interest rates in an effort to combat inflation, she added.
“We feel the economy is very strong and will be able to withstand tighter monetary policy,” Powell said in March. Breaking it down: The central bank didn’t go as hard as some investors thought it might. Yet tucked into the central bank’s projections were signs that it plans to stay tough, even if it means pushing the economy into rocky territory. The Fed’s main interest rate is now set between 3% and 3.25%. Plus, many factors pushing up inflation numbers — such as the war in Ukraine and drought conditions — are outside the central bank’s control.
That is, the Fed will hike and hold, not hike and cut as many in the markets had been forecasting. The September CNBC Fed Survey shows the average respondent believes the Fed will hike 0.75 percentage point, or 75 basis points, at Wednesday's meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.1%. The new peak rate forecast represents a nearly 40 basis-point increase from the July survey. Ryding sees a potential need for the Fed to hike as high as 5%, from the current range of 2.25%-2.5%. Respondents put the recession probability in the U.S. over the next 12 months at 52%, little changed from the July survey.
The Fed is expected to fire off another three-quarter point rate hike — its third in a row. We had theoretical road maps up until now, but from the Fed's point of view they're crossing into a world of tightening. Neutral is considered to be the interest rate level where Fed policy is no longer easy, but not yet restrictive. The Fed has considered 2.5% to be neutral, and if it raises by three-quarters of a point, fed funds will be in a range of 3% to 3.25%. In June, the Fed forecast the unemployment rate would be 3.7% this year, the same level it was at in August.
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