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HONG KONG/BEIJING, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators and state-owned banks are taking steps to split staff at their workplaces in Beijing, sources told Reuters, as businesses brace for a possible spike in COVID cases after China relaxed virus restrictions in a major policy shift. Other staff are required to work from home, they added. Among China's big four state-owned banks, Bank of China (BOC) (601988.SS) has released a notice to staff that it would split its Beijing workforce into three groups, working in the office on alternate weeks, said a person with direct knowledge. But the bank has yet to decide when to start such rotations, the person added. Other large state banks have also made similar arrangements - splitting up staff into rotating shifts while maintaining a maximum of 10%-20% of staff occupancy in their headquarters in Beijing, said two other people with knowledge of the matter.

☆ TSX futures down on recession fears, BoC rate decision in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary BoC rate decision at 10 a.m. ETTrader see a 65.6% chance of a 25 bps hikeDec 07 (Reuters) - Futures tracking Canada's main stock index slipped on Wednesday on mounting recession worries, while investors awaited the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision later in the day. The BoC is expected to hike its benchmark overnight rate to its highest level in 14 years as it seeks to tame high inflation, with the decision expected at 10 a.m. The TSX has recovered 9.7% from its October closing low on hopes that the Federal Reserve and other major central banks would temper their aggressive rate hike stance. Meanwhile, oil prices slipped, pressured by concerns about recession and easing fears that a Western cap on Russian oil prices would significantly curb supply while gold prices were listless against a stronger dollar.

☆ Canadian dollar seen higher as analysts eye peak interest rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022, with almost all of the decline coming since mid-August. Canada's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the third quarter, much stronger than both analysts and the Bank of Canada were expecting. The BoC has raised its benchmark interest rate by 350 basis points since March to 3.75%, its highest level since 2008, in an attempt to cool inflation. Along with a more stable path for U.S. interest rates it "should help the loonie rally closer to fair value," Zhao-Murray said. Measures of fair value include purchasing power parity (PPP), or the exchange rate that equalizes the purchasing power of separate currencies.

☆ TSX closes below 20,000 mark as oil prices slide
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 252.09 points, or 1.25%, at 19,990.17, its lowest closing level since Nov. 21. All 10 of the TSX's major sectors lost ground, including a decline of 3.5% for the energy sector. That matched the decline for U.S. crude prices , which settled at $74.25 a barrel, as global demand concerns weighed. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Will DunhamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Toronto stocks slip to near 1-week lows on rate worries
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. ET (1532 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was down 90.22 points, or 0.45 percent, at 20,152.04. "This news would be received well by investors as higher interest rates have been a major source of anxiety this year," said Brandon Michael, senior analyst at ABC Funds. Among single stocks, Cenovus Energy Inc (CVE.TO) gained 2.0% after the energy company forecast higher capital expenditure for 2023. Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay Dwivedi and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ TSX futures edge up as gold shines, BoC meet in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies BoC rate decision due WednesdayTraders see a 71.5% chance of 25 bps hikeDec 06 (Reuters) - Futures for Canada's resources-heavy main stock index edged up on Tuesday as gold prices rose, while investors await the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. Gold prices steadied on Tuesday after shedding more than 1% in the last session, helped by a weaker dollar. Commodity prices have a major impact on Toronto stocks, as materials and energy companies combined have a near 31% weight on the main index. The TSX, like its U.S. counterparts has rallied from October lows on hopes that the Federal Reserve and major central banks would dial down their aggressive approach on interest rates. The BoC will be one of the first major central banks to announce the interest rate decision in December, with announcements from the Fed and the European Central Bank to follow next week.

☆ Dollar little changed after previous day's jump; investors look to Fed next week
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Data Monday showing that U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November prompted speculation the Fed may lift interest rates more than recently projected. "There was a lot of price action yesterday, and we're just consolidating that," with the big focus on next week's Fed meeting. The euro was flat against the dollar at $1.0492, while the dollar was down 0.1% against the Japanese yen. European Central Bank policymaker Constantinos Herodotou said on Tuesday interest rates will go up again but are now "very near" their neutral level. The dollar was up 0.6% against the Canadian dollar ahead of the Bank of Canada's rate decision Wednesday.

☆ Canada's deep yield curve inversion adds to BoC rate hike dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Canada's central bank says that the economy needs to slow from overheated levels in order to ease inflation. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has fallen nearly 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada's yield curve in Refinitiv data going back to 1994 and deeper than the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion. The depth of Canada's curve inversion is signaling a "bad recession" not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research. Still, 3-month measures of underlying inflation that are closely watched by the BoC - CPI-median and CPI-trim - show price pressures easing. "The yield curve would not invert to this extent unless investors also believed that inflation will drop back down toward the Bank's target," said Brown.

☆ TSX falls after better-than-expected domestic jobs data, materials weigh
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders see a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the BoC next week, down from 84% before the data was published. The materials sector (.GSPTTMT) fell 1.2% tracking bullion prices that dipped after a strong U.S. jobs data rekindled worries of an aggressive Federal Reserve. This week was a cocktail of economic data iced with mixed bank earnings, as markets enter into the holiday season. The big fear and debate is all about whether the economic data is starting to point to a recession coming in 2023," Taylor added. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ C$ dips against greenback; falls harder vs other G10 currencies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It was the only G10 currency to lose ground against the U.S. dollar . The greenback fell 1.1% against a basket of major currencies. "In a weak U.S. dollar environment, the Canadian dollar often lags," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. Chances that the BoC would hike by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at a policy decision next Wednesday have fallen to roughly 10% from 30% since Powell's comments, money market data showed. The Canadian 10-year yield fell 9.3 basis points to 2.842%, its lowest level since Aug. 18.

☆ BoC to keep up pace with 50 basis point December rate hike -economists
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fourteen said the BoC would dial down its pace to 25 basis points. Of the large Canadian banks, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank expected a 50 basis point move with no further hikes afterward. RBC forecasts a 25 basis point hike and then a pause, while BMO expects 50 and then another 25 in early 2023. The Fed, by contrast, is expected to raise its federal funds rate to a minimum of 4.75%-5.00% early next year, with the risks around forecasts skewed toward a higher rate. "The latest BoC research on household vulnerability and flexible mortgage rates support the idea that the BoC terminal rate will end at least 50 basis points below the U.S. Federal Reserve," said Sebastien Lavoie, economist at Laurentian Bank.

☆ Factbox: Aircraft lessors sue insurers for $8 billion over trapped Russian planes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Aircraft leasing firms are suing dozens of insurers for around $8 billion in a string of lawsuits over the loss of hundreds of aircraft stuck in Russia since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Lessors argue the aircraft are covered by policies against war or theft, but insurers point out the planes are undamaged and might yet be returned. Here is a list of claims filed against insurers in London, Dublin and the United States, with the most recent filing listed first. SMBC AVIATION CAPITAL VS LLOYD'S OF LONDONSMBC filed a claim against Lloyd's of London (SOLYD.UL) in the Irish High Court on Nov 28. BOC AVIATION VS 16 INSURERSBOC Aviation has begun legal action against 16 insurers, according to an Irish High Court filing on Nov 3.

☆ Toronto market seen higher if economic downturn not too severe: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"If the downturn doesn't prove to be severe, equity markets could stabilize even as economic data and earnings underwhelm," said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis, Missouri. Canada's economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after households borrowed heavily during the pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market. "While corporate earnings will likely continue to decline for many industries, we see continued growth in earnings across most commodities," said Arthur Salzer, chief executive officer of Northland Wealth Management. Adding to investor enthusiasm, the TSX last Wednesday closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 4. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Fergal Smith; polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sarupya GangulyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. (Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlook: )That was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. “In more ‘normal’ times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlookThat was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. "In more 'normal' times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ TSX falls as commodity stocks weigh
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ET (1522 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was down 130.67 points, or 0.65%, at 19,827.29, extending losses from the previous session. "I think they're still on track for another hike," said Greg Taylor, portfolio manager at Purpose Investments. IRPR#0BOCWATCHAmong stocks, TC Energy (TRP.TO) said that the weather-related issues that prompted it to halt deliveries through its Keystone oil pipeline have been resolved. Restaurant Brands International (QSR.TO) rose 1.3% after it said that its coffee chain brand Tim Hortons had forged a two-year partnership with Alibaba Group's grocery chain. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Chinese investors burnt by bond slump urged to have 'serene heart'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We deeply understand your anxiety in a volatile market," HZBank Wealth Management, a unit of Bank of Hangzhou (600926.SS), told investors in a letter on Wednesday. The Bank of China's (601988.SS) asset management unit also asked investors not to worry. Investors need faith and a serene heart," BOC Wealth Management said in a public letter to investors, suggesting clients view volatility "from a rational and long-term perspective." A slew of other asset managers that sell banks' wealth management products to risk-averse investors, including Nanyin Wealth Management and CIB Wealth Management, wrote similar letters of good cheer. Xu forecasts the end of Chinese bonds' bull market, with the 10-year yield rising to a one-year high around 3%.

☆ Colombia's Grupo Aval posts 23.2% decrease in Q3 net profit
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 16 (Reuters) - Colombian financial conglomerate Grupo Aval (GAA.CN) reported third quarter net profit down 23.2% from a year earlier on Wednesday, landing at 929.8 billion pesos ($193.4 million), citing a higher effective tax rate and increased costs. The conglomerate's portfolio includes Colombian banks Banco de Bogota (BBO.CN), Banco Popular (BPO.CN), Banco AV Villas (VLL.CN) and Banco de Occidente (BOC.CN). The central bank of Latin America's fourth-largest economy has raised its benchmark interest rate to 11% - its highest level in 21 years - in continued efforts to respond to rising inflation. Grupo Aval, controlled by business magnate Luis Carlos Sarmiento, said its consolidated portfolio grew 16.5% during the quarter compared to 3Q21. (1 dollar = 4,806.07 Colombian pesos at end-September)Reporting by Aida Pelaez Fernandez and Carolina Pulice, Writing by Kylie Madry; Editing by Brendan O'BoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Toronto stocks slip on oil drag, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Annual inflation remains unchangedRestaurant Brands International rises on CEO changeLoblaw up after Q3 sales beatNov 16 (Reuters) - Canada's commodity-heavy stock index fell on Wednesday as oil prices declined, while investors digested data showing domestic annual inflation rate held steady in October. ET (1537 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was down 51.55 points, or 0.26%, at 19,943.23, after closing higher in the previous session. Canada's annual inflation rate held steady at 6.9% in October, as gasoline prices rose after OPEC+ countries announced production cuts, while higher interest rates pushed up mortgage costs by 11.4%, the largest jump since February 1991. "There is a 40% chance of a 50 basis points of tightening if inflation doesn't show more evidence of easing as we've seen in the United States," he added. The BoC has hiked its benchmark rate by 350 basis points since March to 3.75%, one of its fastest tightening cycles ever.

☆ Lower-income Canadians to be hit harder by economic slowdown- BoC's Macklem
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

OTTAWA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Lower-income Canadians will be disproportionately affected by the slowdown in economic activity that is needed to rebalance supply and demand to ease inflationary pressures, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday. "Slowing economic growth will disproportionately affect our most vulnerable households," he said in opening remarks at the Conference on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance and Central Banking. "But once we rebalance demand and supply, growth will pick up, our economy will grow solidly, and the benefits of low and predictable inflation will be restored," he added. Reporting by Steve Scherer and Julie Gordon in OttawaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canadian dollar dips as investors weigh U.S. midterm vote
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Canadian dollar dips 0.1% against the greenbackLoonie trades in a range of 1.3414 to 1.3466Price of U.S. oil falls 0.5%Canadian bond yields trade mixed across curveTORONTO, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, pulling back from a seven-week high, as oil prices fell and investors awaited the results of the closely watched U.S. midterm elections. Global equity markets (.WORLD) dipped and the U.S. dollar (.DXY) rose against a basket of major currencies as control of the U.S. Congress and Democratic President Joe Biden's agenda was unclear after the midterm vote. U.S. crude prices were down 0.5% at $88.45 a barrel, while the Canadian dollar weakened 0.1% to 1.3440 to the greenback, or 74.40 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3414 to 1.3466. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is due on Thursday to give a speech on the evolution of the Canadian labour market. Canadian government bond yields were mixed across the curve, with the 10-year up half a basis point at 3.484%.

☆ Bank of Canada focus on more timely inflation data lowers overshoot risk
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation tends to be reported on a year-over-year basis to smooth out fluctuations that occur in shorter-term measures. Some forecasters expect Canada's economy to dip into recession next year along with a downturn in global activity. Twelve-month rates include price growth that occurred much earlier in the year, economists explain. Inflation is likely to be more persistent after it spread from goods prices into slower-moving items, such as wages and services. Still, the BoC has opened the door to slowing the pace of tightening to more normal steps of 25 basis points.

Instead, "the onus is still squarely, fully, 100% on the Bank of Canada to tighten," he said. The BoC's policy rate is seen peaking at 4.5% in early 2023. "I think they're going to struggle to see any improvement in the coming fiscal year," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, adding that the fiscal measures were working at a slight crosscurrent to monetary policy. The fact that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government depends on the left-leaning New Democrats to pass legislation like the fiscal update helps explain the new spending, said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins. ($1 = 1.3499 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canada posts blowout job gain in October, unemployment rate unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Julie Gordon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A help wanted sign at a store along Queen Street West in Toronto Ontario, Canada June 10, 2022. The economy added a net 108,300 jobs last month, easily beating forecasts for 10,000 new jobs, while the jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2%. The blowout gain was entirely in full-time work, spread across both the goods and services sectors. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% last week and said while more increases would still be needed, it was nearing the end of its tightening campaign. The core-age unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, slightly above July's record low, but in a historically tight range last seen in the 1970s.

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