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☆ It's time for investors to sell any rally in stocks with job losses set to shock markets in 2023, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Sell stock rallies ahead of the likely recession shock for Main Street consumer sentiment in 2023, Bank of America said Friday. Job losses next year will shock consumers, as inflation did in 2022, analysts predicted. For now, the labor market still looks strong, with the addition of 263,000 jobs in November. Strength in the labor market was on display Friday with the November nonfarm payrolls report. Bank of America said it already sees signs of the labor market softening, with "small business jobs hard to fill (correlates with Fed funds) & peak in Atlanta Fed wage tracker," it said.

☆ Equity funds suffer biggest weekly outflow in three months - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Equity funds suffered a $14.1 billion outflow in the week to Wednesday in the largest exit in three months, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday. U.S. equity funds saw an $16.2 billion outflow, the biggest since April, the latest flow data from BofA also showed. Bond funds also saw outflows, to the tune of $2.4 billion, while cash funds attracted $31.1 billion inflows and gold funds added $59 million, BofA said citing EPFR data. In its weekly note, BofA noted that outflows from credit funds in 2022 of $316 billion have unwound all the inflows of 2021. It added that while equity funds have seen inflows this year of some $207 billion, this was down from the "euphoric inflows" seen last year.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead With Black Friday ahead, investors look to U.S. consumer stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer discretionary stocks, a group whose members run the gamut from Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and automaker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) to retailer Target Corp (TGT.N), have been walloped by surging prices, with the S&P 500’s consumer discretionary sector falling nearly 33% for the year to date compared with a nearly 17% fall for the broader index. Investors poured a net $1.05 billion into consumer discretionary stocks in the past week, the sixth-largest weekly inflows since 2008, data from BofA Global Research showed. “Everybody is watching the strength of the consumer and so far the consumer has held.”Yruma is bullish on retailers Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N) and Target. To be sure, consumer stocks have had more than their fair share of woes this year. The bank's analysts are underweight the consumer discretionary sector.

☆ Analysis: Political gridlock may help U.S. stocks but inflation still in driver's seat
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A split government "makes major policy changes unlikely, and that stability in policy tends to be reassuring for investors." Still, macroeconomic concerns and monetary policy have driven markets all year, and investors believe that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon. "Inflation matters more than anything else right now," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. In the last five instances when the November-December period occurred in a bear market, the S&P 500 logged an average two-month decline of 2.2%. If you look at bear markets there is no evidence of seasonality at the end of the year," Antonelli said.

The Labor Department's producer prices index rose 8% in the 12 months through October, lower than an estimated 8.3% rise, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the index rose 5.4% on an annual basis last month after increasing 5.6% in September. The report follows softer-than-expected consumer prices data late last week, which sparked a massive rally on hopes of a less aggressive monetary policy. "It (the data) is going to confirm people's hopes that inflation is starting to turn the corner. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 23 new highs and 27 new lows.

The comments follow a softer-than-expected inflation report last week, which had buoyed hopes that the Fed could scale back its hefty interest rate hikes and helped drive a euphoric market rally. The S&P 500 in the previous session logged its biggest weekly percentage gain in about five months, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) notched its best week since March. "The market is expecting the Fed to continue its hawkish rhetoric on rates. ET, the S&P 500 (.SPX) was down 17.25 points, or 0.43%, at 3,975.68, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was down 115.13 points, or 1.02%, at 11,208.20. The S&P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) was down 1.2% and among the leading sectoral decliners on the benchmark index.

☆ Investors gobble up bonds as worst of inflation may be over -BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors bought $2.6 billion of bonds in the week to Wednesday, BofA said, citing EPFR data. "Inflation shock" is over, but 'inflation stick' of briskly rising services and wage inflation is here to stay; inflation will come down but to remain above range past 20 years," BofA strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, said. Inflation shock, rates shock and recession shock defined the the 2022 bear narrative, Bofa said, adding that 2023 looks very different. "2023 bull narrative is 'peak CPI, peak Fed, peak yields, peak US dollar'; we say 'rent the pivot' as 'no recession, no rate cuts'," the bank's strategists said. BofA said U.S. 30-year Treasuries, small-cap industrials and resources, emerging market bonds, plus China/Japan and weak dollar plays were on its list.

The S&P is 10.6% above its Oct. 12 closing low for 2022, though still down 17% for the year. "If you're sitting in cash and the market rallies, you might think you were greedy waiting for a bigger discount." Institutional investors' exposure to stocks was low going into Thursday's inflation report. Last month's fund manager survey from BofA Global Research showed investors' cash levels at their highest since April 2001. Lewis said he had not seen so-called real money – a term for mutual funds, pension funds and other non-leveraged market investors – participating in Thursday's rally, though he saw no evidence of selling from that cohort, either.

☆ Investors gobble up bonds as worst of inflation may be over - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Investors bought more bonds than at any time in the last four months in the week to Wednesday as signs emerged that inflation may have peaked, BofA Global Research said on Friday. Investors bought $2.6 billion of bonds in the week to Wednesday, BofA said, citing EPFR data. "Inflation shock" is over, but "inflation stick" of briskly rising services and wage inflation is here to stay; inflation will come down but to remain above range past 20 years," BofA strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, said. In the latest week, investors pulled $4.6 billion from equity funds and ploughed $2.4 billion into cash. Inflation shock, rates shock and recession shock defined the the 2022 bear narrative, Bofa said, adding that 2023 looks very different.

☆ Take-Two deepens videogame industry gloom with forecast cut
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 7 (Reuters) - Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO.O) cut its annual sales forecast on Monday, the latest videogame publisher to be hit by this year's dollar spike and a broader gaming industry slump. Take-Two, whose shares fell nearly 15% in extended trading, now expects full-year adjusted sales between $5.4 billion and $5.5 billion. For the second quarter ended Sept. 30, Take-Two reported adjusted sales of $1.5 billion. The company's quarterly performance was supported by "NBA 2K23" - the latest game in Take-Two's popular basketball series - which has enjoyed solid demand since its early September launch. Reporting by Tiyashi Datta and Aditya Soni in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh KuberOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Inflation data, midterm elections loom for struggling U.S. stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - A sputtering U.S. stock rally faces a double-dose of potentially market moving events next week: U.S. midterm elections and inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Consumer price data has driven huge market moves this year, as surging inflation forced investors to ramp up expectations for Fed rate hikes. A stronger-than-expected reading on Nov. 10 would likely bolster the case for the Fed to continue. "If we get lower inflation reading then you could get a relief rally based on that data,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. "The results of the midterm will give greater visibility and help draw investor confidence higher," he said.

☆ Investors pile into cash at fastest rate since COVID crisis-BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Equity funds posted $6.3 billion in inflows, with emerging markets funds recording their second straight weekly inflow, with $4.3 billion, and European equity funds posting their 38th weekly outflow, down $900 million, BofA added. Stocks got a boost last week from a belief among investors that the Federal Reserve could shift the pace of rate hikes down a gear, as the economy shows signs of slowing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has since poured cold water over such speculation, given stubbornly high inflation and a resilient labour market. Much harder to pivot when inflation is 8% & unemployment is 3%," BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote. The S&P 500 (.SPX) gained almost 4% last week, buoyed by optimism over quarterly earnings and the prospect of slower rate hikes from the Fed.

☆ China's economy could rebound soon, but longer-term growth will be 'deeply challenging'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Abigail Ng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China previously "sailed on" economically while other countries struggled, but the world's second largest economy may have a difficult path ahead, according to one strategist. "China has reached that level of its development where a lot of emerging markets typically find the going getting tougher," said Mark Jolley of CCB International Securities. He pointed to the trend of deglobalization, friction between the U.S. and China as well as the weak global economy. "On both sides of the Pacific we hear a lot of wishful thinking that decoupling will promote rather than hurt domestic growth. We disagree," Ethan Harris wrote in a BofA Global Research note published Friday.

☆ The US economy came back to life this summer, but things are still likely to suck next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Mike Schenk, chief economist of Credit Union National Association, said in a statement that the "healthy economic growth will not last." CEOs are pessimistic about the future and the hot labor market is coolingCEOs, for one, aren't feeling too good about the economy. "The labor market continues to be hot, even if it's cooled a little bit since the beginning of this year," Bunker told Insider. "Where we're seeing it does signal that it is sectors normalizing, rather than dramatically pulling back postings because they are concerned about short term economic growth." He noted that excess labor demand "gives you a lot of running room here before the labor market actually gets soft."

☆ Investors buy equities at fastest pace in seven months, return to bonds
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Overall, bonds saw outflows of $1.4 billion, while gold posted outflows of $0.5 billion. Inflows into investment-grade bonds and high-yield bonds resumed for the first time in at least eight weeks, BofA said. Emerging markets equity funds recorded their largest weekly inflow since April 2022, at $2.8 billion. Bofa said its bull & bear indicator remains at "max bearish" for the sixth consecutive week. Reporting by Lucy Raitano; Editing by Amanda CooperOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Recession fears threaten perfect track record of post-midterm U.S. stock gains
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A potential recession could end a streak of gains for U.S. stocks that has followed every midterm election since World War Two. Since 1946, the S&P 500 (.SPX) has climbed 19 out of 19 times in the 12-month period after midterm elections, according to data from Deutsche Bank. The vote helps clarify the policy outlook regardless of the result because the make-up of Congress is known. November and December rank as the second- and third-best performing months of the year since 1950, with average S&P 500 gains of 1.7% and 1.5%, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Meanwhile, the current inflationary environment makes post-midterm fiscal stimulus less likely, another factor that could limit stock gains.

☆ Analysis: As U.S. Treasuries tumble, some investors say turning point is near
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Some investors believe Treasury yields are close to peaking, even as markets continue pricing in more hawkishness from a Federal Reserve bent on taming the worst inflation in decades. Others think higher yields will soon start luring investors into Treasuries. Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, last month told Reuters that U.S. Treasuries are near the end of a painful decline. Zhiwei Ren, managing director and portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management, believes yields may subside if the economy enters a recession. But he said persistent labor shortages, broken supply chains and other long-term changes in the global economy are likely to keep inflation elevated.

☆ Blanch: The U.S. government is coming up with measures to support oil prices for the first time
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBlanch: The U.S. government is coming up with measures to support oil prices for the first timeFrancisco Blanch of BofA Global Research discusses where oil and natural gas prices could be headed over the next year, and how the U.S. could end up having the upper hand over China and Russia in becoming the world's dominant energy player.

☆ "60/40" portfolios are facing worst returns in 100 years: BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Investors with classic "60/40" portfolios are facing the worst returns this year for a century, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday, noting that bond markets continue to see huge outflows. "2022 (is) a simple tale of "inflation shock" causing "rates shock" which in turn threatening "recession shock" & "credit event"; inflation shock ain't over," BofA said in its weekly "Flows Show" report. So-called "60/40" portfolios typically have 60% of their holdings in stocks and the remaining 40% in fixed income. BofA said annualised returns so far in 2022 on portfolios like these are the worst in the past 100 years, while those on "25/25/25/25" portfolios that hold equal portions of cash, commodities, stocks and bonds have dropped 11.9%, the worst sinced 2008. Anticipation that inflation will fall and the fact that in 2023 inflation will be expected rather than unanticipated is good news, Bofa said.

☆ Blackstone, Apollo brace for deteriorating commercial real estate market that one analyst says could lose 30% of its value
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Kelsey Neubauer | Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Year-over-year price growth has already slowed for commercial properties, signaling souring outlooks that could reduce values by 20 to 30%, the strategists wrote in a report. Executives at the Bisnow event pointed to high rents on multifamily properties, though growth is softening. Yardi"If this doesn't clear the market, then I don't know what does," Marcus said of her multifamily properties, which she described as large and relatively new. Andrew Holm, a cohead of US investments at Ares, the owner of more than $50 billion in commercial real estate, is hunkered down for the long haul, however. At the Bisnow event, he was so bearish on commercial real estate that he struggled to name a single sector that might be attractive over the next six months.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors wonder when vicious sell-off in U.S. stocks will end
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is down more than 22% this year. If the S&P 500 closes below the mid-June low in the days ahead, that may prompt another wave of aggressive selling, Stovall said. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 by 16% to 3,600 points from 4,300 points. "The increased probability of breaking the June S&P 500 price low may be what it takes to invoke even deeper fear. A recession would likely push the S&P 500 to trade between 3,000 and 3,500 in 2023, Jolly said.

☆ Bond sell-off worst since 1949, investor sentiment plummets - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Bank of America logo is pictured in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., January 30, 2019. REUTERS/Carlo AllegriLONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Global government bond losses are on course for the worst year since 1949 and investor sentiment has plummeted to its lowest since the financial crisis, BofA Global Research said in a note on Friday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterInvestor sentiment is the worst it has been since the 2008 global financial crash, the note said. The bond crash “threatens liquidation of (the) world's most crowded trades” including long dollar and long U.S. tech, BofA wrote. Aggressive rate hikes from major central banks to contain inflation, even as growth slows, has unnerved world markets and sparked a fresh surge in bond yields this week.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead 'Uncharted' sell-off in U.S. stocks has investors wondering when the pain stops
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A specialist trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, Sept 23 (Reuters) - A week of heavy selling has brought U.S. stocks and bonds to fresh bear market lows, with many investors bracing for more pain ahead. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 by 16% to 3,600 points from 4,300 points. Kevin Gordon, senior investment research manager at Charles Schwab, believes there is more downside ahead because central banks are tightening monetary policy into a global economy that already appears to be weakening. A recession would likely push the S&P 500 to trade between 3,000 and 3,500 in 2023, Jolly said.

☆ Analysis: Rally in U.S. consumer stocks teeters with Fed, inflation in focus
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe gains in the consumer discretionary sector may prove fleeting. read moreStill, some investors believe inflation and growth woes may already be largely reflected in many consumer discretionary shares. "But we're seeing a lot of consumer stocks that we think will hold up and come out of this in a better position." Consumer stocks are rallying despite looming Fed hikes. Global fund managers have remained bearish on consumer discretionary stocks despite recent gains, with nearly 25% of those surveyed by BofA Global Research this month underweight the sector - the most of any group.

☆ UBS seeing positive client flows this quarter - Khan
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe logo of Swiss bank UBS is seen at a branch office in Zurich, Switzerland, January 27, 2017. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File PhotoZURICH, Sept 20 (Reuters) - UBS Group (UBSG.S) is seeing positive flows of client funds this quarter, the co-head of the Swiss bank's wealth management business said on Tuesday. The first quarter had been pretty strong and it viewed the slowdown in the second quarter as an "anomaly", Iqbal Khan told the BofA Global Research financials conference. "As of this quarter we are seeing positive flows," he said without being specific. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Michael Shields, editing by Rachel More and Louise HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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