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☆ Central banks hike rates again, but a pause is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Joshua RobertsLONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Major central banks are steadily moving closer to a pause in their aggressive interest rate hiking campaigns. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England raised rates on Thursday, but markets suspect a peak is nearing. Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 2,965 basis points in this cycle to date, with Japan the holdout dove. Canada's central bank has raised its policy rate at a record pace of 425 basis points in 10 months. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%.

New Jersey-based Celsius filed for U.S. bankruptcy in July last year, after freezing customer withdrawals from its platform. She was tasked with investigating accusations by Celsius customers that the company operated as a Ponzi scheme and also with reporting on its handling of cryptocurrency deposits. Celsius gathered crypto deposits from retail customers and invested them in the equivalent of the wholesale crypto market. It raised some of the initial capital to fund its business by creating and selling its own crypto token, called "CEL". "The business model Celsius advertised and sold to its customers was not the business that Celsius actually operated," the report said.

Jan 31 (Reuters) - Big investors are dipping their toes into crypto waters again after a bumper month for bitcoin. Bitcoin was far and away the biggest draw, with funds tracking it responsible for $116 million of that. They said shorter-term investors were selling their bitcoin at a profit, while longer-term "HODlers" were still sticking with their coin and not contributing to selling pressure. Additionally, bitcoin's "dominance" or share of the total crypto market has hovered around 41% this month, levels not seen since last July. Analysts at Citi said this mimicked a similar jump in bitcoin dominance in April 2019, when a bitcoin rally marked a crypto market bottom.

This meant the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell as low as 101.5, its lowest since the end of May. Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes. The Canadian dollar traded at 1.3387 per U.S. dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. He said the pullback in Fed rate hike expectations following the BoC’s policy decision had triggered a US dollar sell-off alongside Canadian dollar weakness, which "highlights that the US dollar remains vulnerable to a further dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations." Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

S&P Global's Flash U.S. Composite Output Index last month rose to 46.6, below a reading of 50 where growth begins. Companies reported soft demand amid still high inflation that remains a headwind to customer spending, the report showed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed slightly lower after bellwethers including 3M (MMM.N), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), Verizon (VZ.N) and GE (GE.N) reported mixed results. The Dow rose as Traveler Cos (TRV.N), American Express (AXP.N) and JPMorgan Chase provided almost half its gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 0.07% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 0.27%.

☆ European shares slip, euro firm as data tees up ECB rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/StaffLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The euro held near a nine-month high against the dollar on Tuesday, though European stocks eased after regional business activity data reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise rates by a further 50 basis points. S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December, the first time it has been above the 50 mark since June. "For the ECB, this should seal the deal for a 50-basis point hike next week," said ING economists in a note. The Federal Reserve's rate setting committee concludes its two-day meeting on Feb. 1, with the ECB and Bank of England meeting the next day. The euro , in contrast was steady at $1.0862, just off its nine-month high of $1.0927 hit a day before.

☆ European shares slide, euro steady as data tees up ECB rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December, the first time it has been above the 50 mark since June. Britain's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), however, dropped to 47.8 in January from 49.0 in December, the lowest since January 2021. U.S. PMI data is due later in the day. The European common currency was steady at $1.0865, just off its nine-month high of $1.0927 hit a day before. Sterling turned negative after the British data and lost 0.5% to $1.231, retreating from Monday's seven-month high.

European stocks have vastly outperformed their U.S. peers. The euro STOXX (.STOXXE) benchmark has beaten its U.S. peer, the S&P 500 (.SPX), by over 18 percentage points since September. "It's a very big move in European gas prices and that has dramatically improved the outlook. "Lower gas prices are surely a positive, but their rapid fall also tell us that they can rise just as fast should things go wrong. A closely watched index of European corporate credit (.MERER00) has seen its yield fall nearly 50 basis points this year.

☆ Take Five: Staring at the ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

All told, companies worth more than half the S&P 500's market value are reporting results over the next two weeks. Stock markets can predict the global PMI levels, tending to bounce ahead of a sustainable rise of the index. On Wednesday, watch out for Australian and New Zealand inflation data as well, with the RBNZ pondering how much more to tighten, and the RBA wondering whether it's time to pause. Reuters Graphics5/LONDON CALLINGLondon's bluechip FTSE 100 index (.FTSE) is poised to launch a new attempt to scale an all-time high in days to come. British public sector borrowing numbers, producer price inflation and PMI data are all due as well ahead of a Bank of England meeting the following week.

☆ Sterling touches seven-month peak in early trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Sterling hit a seven-month high against the dollar in Asian hours on Monday supported by economic data that showed the British economy was performing better than feared and that also drove expectations of more interest rate increases. The pound hit $1.24475 in early trading on Monday, its highest level since June 10, 2022. Moves were exacerbated by thin liquidity due to the Lunar New Year holidays in major financial centres such as Hong Kong and Singapore. "The firming up of BoE tightening expectations has allowed sterling to match this year's strength of the euro." Markets pricing indicates a 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate increase at the Bank of England's February meeting.

☆ China reopening spurs record inflows into emerging market funds -BofA
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Investors poured a record $12.7 billion into emerging-market debt and equity funds in the week to Wednesday, in response to China's easing of its COVID-19 restrictions on activity, data on Friday from BofA Global Research showed. The sudden shift in Chinese policy has boosted many different asset classes, from commodities and mining stocks to currencies and equity markets in popular tourist destinations. The BofA data also showed weekly flows of $14.4 billion into bond funds, $7.5 billion into equities, $0.6 billion into cash and $0.6 billion from gold. BofA said there were $0.2 billion of inflows to European stock funds, the first inflows in 49 weeks. BofA's "Bull & Bear indicator" is at 3.5, a 10-month high driven by the inflows into emerging markets.

☆ Treasury yields, dollar fall after U.S. data; yen flat in wake of BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. The drop in U.S. retail sales, together with subsiding inflation, could encourage the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. The decision caused the yen to fall, with investors unwinding bets based on expectations the central bank would overhaul its yield control policy. But in late-morning U.S. trading, the dollar was little changed against the yen . "The PPI and retail sales numbers show that there are disinflationary pressures going on," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

☆ Stocks buoyed by cheery data after BOJ damp squib
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Data showed British inflation dropped to a three-month low of 10.5% in December, the latest sign that global inflationary pressures are abating. Also helped by a string of positive earnings updates, Europe's STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.4% to its highest level since April 2022. Earlier in the day MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.24%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.26%. The dollar at one point rose as much as 2.7% against the Japanese yen, but was last 0.78% higher at 129.11. Data on Tuesday showed China's economic growth had slumped in 2022 to 3.0% - the weakest rate in nearly half a century.

☆ Luxury giant LVMH hits 400 billion euro in market value
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

MILAN, Jan 17 (Reuters) - LVMH (LVMH.PA) shares rose to a fresh record high on Tuesday, giving the luxury goods group a market capitalisation of 400 billion euros ($434 billion) for the first time and cementing its lead as Europe's most valuable company. Like other luxury companies which are heavily exposed to China, LVMH has benefited this year from the fast reopening of the world's second biggest economy. "They are firing their last cartridge which is the Chinese reopening, going forward things will get tougher: tough comparisons, dollar going down," he added. The shares rose as much as 0.4% to a lifetime high of 795.7 euros, which gave the group a market value slightly above 400 billion euros, according to Reuters calculations based on Refintiv data. snapshot($1 = 0.9236 euros)Reporting by Danilo Masoni, editing by Alun John, Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Investors jump into equities and bonds in Goldilocks scenario - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Investors poured money into equity and bond funds and moved money out of gold in the week to Wednesday, according to BofA Global Research, taking heart from a string of positive data points and policy changes. Bofa also pointed to the impact of China reopening its borders after COVID-19 restrictions, lower EU energy prices and encouraging U.S. fiscal and labour market data, as all factors behind the moves. The report found there were weekly flows into funds investing in bonds ($17.5bn), cash ($8.3bn), and stocks ($7.2bn), and out of gold ($0.4bn). BofA also said there were the largest inflow to investment grade bonds since July 21 ($10.4bn), and the largest inflow to emerging market debt and emerging market stocks since April 22 ($3.6bn). "Flows show the chase is on," said BofaReporting by Alun John, editing by Lucy Raitano and Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The euro edged up 0.01% against the greenback to $1.0733 at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT), just below its seven-month high of $1.07605 hit Monday. Investors now expect rates to peak just under 5% by June, before starting to come down later in the year. The pause in the dollar's decline comes as traders ready themselves for U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7878 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session.

☆ Dollar stabilises near seven-month lows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro was at $1.0736, little changed on the day, trading just below its seven-month high of 1.07605 hit Monday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7889 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session. The dollar also steadied against the yen trading up 0.2% at 132.2 yen. The Japanese currency has been broadly strengthening after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) surprise tweak to its yield curve policy late last year.

The euro was at $1.0731, little changed on the day, trading just below its seven-month high of 1.07605 hit Monday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7878 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session. The dollar also steadied against the Japanese yen at 131.7 yen. The currency has been broadly strengthening firm after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) surprise tweak to its yield curve policy late last year.

☆ Morning bid: Look who's back
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. Payrolls data due later on Friday are the major factor that will underscore this week's move, or undermine it. A Reuters poll of economists expects an increase of 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 263,000 in November. German 10-year bond yields , which serve as a benchmark for the broader euro zone, have fallen by almost 30 bps this week thanks to lower inflation data in several European markets. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning bid: Wakey wakey!
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Any surprises could provide a shock to current market pricing for rate cuts to begin late this year. That reaction suggests, according to ING, that should the minutes fail to confirm that dovish bias, Treasury yields are likely to rise. Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) share index also rose around 1%, set for its third day of gains as the positive mood swept through European markets. That could all change, however, if markets decide the Fed minutes and the economic data suggest significantly more U.S. rate hikes are needed this year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Reuters Graphics3/ RE-EMERGING MARKETSWhisper it, but the emerging markets (EM) bulls are back after 2022 delivered some of the biggest losses on record. Credit Suisse particularly likes hard currency debt and DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, AKA the "bond king", has EM stocks as his top pick. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. inflation to decelerate to 3.1% by the end of 2023. Valentine Ainouz, fixed income strategist at the Amundi Institute, predicts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will end 2023 at 3.5% from around 3.88% currently. Reuters Graphics5/ EQUITIES: SELL NOW, BUY LATEREquity investors hope a V-shaped year for the global economy will see stocks end it comfortably higher.

☆ Extreme bear sentiment over as investors buy stocks and bonds - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Investors ploughed cash into stocks and bonds and sold cash and gold in the week to Wednesday, BofA Global Research said on Friday, hailing the end of "extreme bear sentiment". Equity inflows totalled $18 billion and bond funds saw $2.3 billion of inflows while investors sold $0.2 billion of gold and shed cash at the highest rate in three months, selling $31.1 billion. U.S. equity value funds recorded their largest inflows ever, of $14.3 billion, and investors bought passive equities and sold active equities. BofA's "Bull & Bear" indicator jumped to its highest level since March 15 in the week to Wednesday. Investors sold $1.3 billion of bank loan funds, the largest outflow in three months.

☆ Euro zone bond yields jump a day after hawkish ECB
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs rose on Friday as investors revised their forecasts for bond yields after the European Central Bank pledged further monetary tightening to fight inflation. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark of the bloc, touched 2.208% on Friday, its highest in a month, and was last up 8 basis points at 2.17%. The gap between 2-year and 10-year yields was at -28.5 bps after briefly hitting its lowest since 1992 at -41.9 bps. The yield spread was at 1 bp after falling into negative territory to as low as -15 bps. Rohan Khanna head of European and UK rates at UBS forecast the Italian-German yield spread in the 200-250 bps range in 2023.

☆ Central banks ramp up rates again but the pace slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Central banks in Britain, Norway, Switzerland, the euro zone and the United States have all raised interest rates this week. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%. Money markets moved after the statement to forecast UK interest rates will top out at around 4.5% in August. Markets anticipate an 80% chance of a 50 bps hike when the Riksbank meets next in February. But market players do not expect any significant change from the world's lone major central bank dove.

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates to 3.5%, says inflation has peaked
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.

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