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The race is a must-win for Democrats to have any hope of retaining control of the House. It’s one where, on the whole, it might edge Democratic looking at the district but with no incumbent, a pretty well-funded Republican and a good cycle. It makes me mad.”In an interview ahead of the rally with Oz rally in suburban Pittsburgh, Shaffer said Deluzio was “desperate” because his campaign has gained some momentum in the final weeks. As for why the area has become such a significant swing district, Rothfus cited its economic and geographic importance. “It’s the crossroads of a huge section of the country, right between the Midwest and the Northeast,” he said.

☆ Some of NY Gov. Kathy Hochul's top donors privately sound alarm over GOP candidate Lee Zeldin surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Brian Schwartz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Kathy Hochul's top donors are privately panicking about Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin's recent surge in the polls ahead of Tuesday's midterms, according to people familiar with the matter. One Democratic advisor, who counts numerous Hochul donors as clients, said he's having "PTSD" as he sees Zeldin closing in on Hochul in the polls. Bragg has been criticized, often by GOP officials, for the uptick in crime in New York City. Zeldin said at the debate that his first initiative if he becomes governor is to remove Bragg from office. Hochul told Zeldin at the time "you can't throw out someone who is duly elected."

☆ The midterms are moments away, and these 9 behind-the-scenes agencies are helping politicians get elected, with control of Congress at stake
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Lara O'Reilly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Political midterm ad spending is expected to hit a record high of $9.7 billionA new crop of digital-first firms is competing with traditional ad agencies for that money. Here are 9 of the most notable firms working for top GOP and Democratic candidates and organizations. Political advertising is reaching unprecedented levels for a midterm election. An August report from analytics firm AdImpact projected that political ad spending would reach $9.7 billion this year, beating the previous $9 billion record set in 2020. Kantar CMAG has forecast that $8.4 billion political ad dollars will be spent this year.

☆ Midterm Campaign Sprints Into Final Weekend as Senate Polls Remain Tight
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( John Mccormick | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Republicans expressed optimism as they headed into the final weekend of the midterm campaign, targeting House seats deeper into Democratic territory than once expected while both parties watched polls in some critical Senate races showing signs of tightening. The frenetic final weekend will play out on the ground as well as on the nation’s airwaves, cable channels and online screens, with ad-tracker AdImpact estimating that more than a quarter-billion dollars will be spent from Saturday through Election Day on local, state and federal races.

MIDLAND, Mich. — The closing days of Michigan’s midterm elections for governor and other statewide offices have erupted into a scramble, with tightening polls, hostile tones and dire warnings from both parties. “As the state of Michigan goes, so goes the whole country, and as the United States of America goes, so goes the globe,” Democratic Gov. “It’s really about power for them,” Dixon said Wednesday night at a rally here in Midland. “I will always follow the Constitution,” Dixon told reporters after her rally in Midland. “So we got six days, six more days.

A Republican is going to win the Alaska Senate race, but that hasn’t stopped Mitch McConnell from plowing millions of dollars into the deep-red state. Herschel Walker, the Senate candidate in Georgia backed by both Trump and McConnell, also says he would back McConnell. Apart from Tshibaka, Senate Republican candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire has said he would vote against McConnell for leader. (The Republican senator who requested anonymity voiced surprise at McConnell’s prediction and thought it betrayed some nervousness on his part. Although he voted to acquit Trump, McConnell called him “practically and morally responsible” for the assault on the Capitol.

But none of that explains why political campaigns have been turning away from Facebook. Political ads have always been a small part of Facebook's overall business. The pandemic accelerated that trend since so many consumers turned to streaming platforms while stuck at home, and content for cord-cutters proliferated. Ad tracking firm AdImpact projected that of the $9.7 billion spent on political ads this cycle, $1.4 billion would go to connected TVs. Apple's crackdown has indeed diminished Facebook's position in political advertising.

And the House Democrats’ campaign arm last week deployed hundreds of thousands of dollars to save its chairman in a Biden district north of New York City. “And I think that right there explains why this red wave is going to be so big.”The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm for House Democrats, said it isn't throwing in the towel. “Nearly a week from Election Day, House Democrats are well positioned to retain the majority despite a Republican gerrymandered map and MAGA Republicans’ dark money-fueled campaigns. Connecticut’s 5th District: Democrats have already spent $4.5 million to re-elect Hayes in a district that backed Biden 54.6% to Trump's 43.9% in the last election. Between now and Election Day, Democrats said they plan to spend an additional $1.5 million in ads to combat comparable spending by Republicans.

☆ The sleeper county that could decide the Senate
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Natasha Korecki | Natasha Korecki Is A Senior National Political Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +10 min

All of those factors make Washoe County the ultimate battleground for Cortez Masto and Laxalt. Both campaigns say that in the final 11 days, they’re swamping Washoe County with TV ads, canvassers and events. “Without a significant win in Washoe County, she has very few paths of winning Nevada.”Washoe County eluded Cortez Masto and Laxalt in their most recent statewide races. “The Democrats keep harping on that item here,” Bruce Parks, the Washoe County Republican chair, said of the abortion issue. “As I talk to Nevadans, including in Washoe County, it’s a combination of things — it’s not just the kitchen table issues,” she said.

Already fighting from behind, Democrats' chances of keeping the House have slipped further in the last month. In a letter to Democratic colleagues on Thursday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called on House members to make a point of defending their record on crime. Republican groups including Citizens for Sanity, headed by former aides to Trump, poured money in recent weeks into ads criticizing Democrats as weak on crime and illegal immigration. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday, respondents were twice as likely to list crime, rather than abortion rights, as the country's biggest problem. Shield PAC, a Third Way-affiliated political action committee, launched ads on Monday promoting the law enforcement records of Virginia's Elaine Luria and Minnesota's Angie Craig, both endangered Democrats.

WelcomePAC, a Democratic-funded group that aims to reach ticket-splitting voters this fall, has launched a six-figure advertising campaign against Republican J.D. “WelcomePAC is launching the ‘Why No J.D.’ campaign to highlight why so many disaffected Republicans and independents are rejecting J.D. Luke Schroeder, a spokesperson for the Vance campaign, cast the effort as a waste of money. Ryan has tailored his message to appeal to independent and GOP voters and his campaign has far outraised Vance’s. He also spends considerable time in his stump speeches wrestling with Ryan’s overtures to GOP voters.

☆ Arizona GOP governor candidate Kari Lake, who has spread election conspiracies, raises cash from business leaders
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Brian Schwartz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Arizona republican candidate for governor Kari Lake greets the audience during a stop on the Truth and Courage PAC's Take Back America Bus Tour with U.S. Lake is endorsed by Trump, who spread false conspiracies that he lost that 2020 election because of widespread voter fraud. He helped to fuel the wave of GOP candidates who have run for office while casting doubts on the 2020 results. Ducey certified Arizona's 2020 election results. Hobbs, as the state's top election official, has denied any irregularities in the 2020 election.

☆ Florida's Hispanic voters back DeSantis over Crist, support Martha's Vineyard migrant flights
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Marc Caputo | Noah Pransky | Marc Caputo Is A Senior National Political Reporter For Nbc News. | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +9 min

Florida’s Hispanic voters back Gov. “There are lots of Hispanic voters in this state who really like the governor’s style, this strongman who won’t back down. And Crist has no mojo,” said Coker, who conducted the bilingual survey of 625 likely Hispanic voters from Oct. 17-22. And other Hispanic voters from throughout Latin America also side with Crist over DeSantis by a narrower percentage, 53% to 43%. Both DeSantis and Crist receive strong support from voters registered with their respective parties, but DeSantis has slightly more intense intraparty support than Crist, and the governor is leading among independent Hispanic voters by a 22-point margin.

☆ Republicans are spending millions to boost Gov. Kevin Stitt's reelection bid in deep-red Oklahoma: report
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-22 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The RGA is investing in a "seven figure" ad buy to boost Kevin Stitt's reelection bid, per Politico. Stitt has faced a barrage of ads criticizing his record, which has made the race competitive. The governor will face Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister in the November general election. "This year's Oklahoma gubernatorial election is the most important in generations for all Oklahomans, and that's why leaders of the Five Tribes are endorsing Joy Hofmeister to be Oklahoma's 29th Governor." And the governor has eagerly pointed to the tribes as the source of the advertisement campaign.

☆ Where $7.5 Billion in Midterm Campaign Ads Are Hitting Hardest
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( John Mccormick | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

As the midterm campaign heads into its final weeks, political ad spending for the current two-year election cycle is on pace to more than double from the 2018 midterms. AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm, says about $7.5 billion has been spent so far by candidates and outside groups trying to influence local, state and federal elections. That compares with about $4 billion in the 2018 midterm cycle and about $9 billion in the 2020 presidential cycle.

By comparison, $184 million has been spent in Georgia's Senate race so far, while $176 million has been spent in Pennsylvania's Senate race, including primary and general election ad spending. The two main groups spending money on the airwaves in the California race are on opposite sides of the issue — one in support of the proposition and one opposed. The payments to the state from sports betting would go into the California Online Sports Betting Trust Fund, which would be used first to pay for state regulatory costs. Currently, the biggest backers of Prop 27 are existing online sports betting sites, like FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM, all of whom have donated millions. Instead, each tribe would negotiate a compact with the state, which could include required payments to local and state governments.

WisconsinDemocrats see Republican Sen. Ron Johnson as a vulnerable incumbent. Barnes has espoused progressive views in office, but his Senate campaign has focused more on pocketbook issues such as inflation and taxes. Vance appears locked in a tight Senate race against Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, despite running in a red-leaning state that Trump won handily in 2020. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan's approval ratings have fallen, including among unaffiliated voters who make up a major chunk of the state's electorate. FloridaFormer Orlando police chief and Democratic Rep. Val Demings aims to unseat incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.

“And I will accept the result if I don’t.”Arizona Republican nominee for governor Kari Lake sign a campaign poster for a supporter on Oct. 7 in Scottsdale. Mario Tama / Getty ImagesLake has seized on Hobbs’ refusal to debate and centered it during recent campaign appearances. Kristi Noem, a Republican, in Scottsdale last week, Lake again sharply criticized Hobbs for eschewing a statewide debate. The Kelly campaign told NBC News the senator does not have any imminent plans to campaign with Hobbs. Chuck Coughlin, an Arizona Republican pollster, said there are some “traditional Republican voters that are going, ‘No f---ing way, I’m not going there.

“Tim Ryan is running the best Senate race in the country and having to do it all by his lonesome,” said Irene Lin, an Ohio-based Democratic strategist who managed Tom Nelson’s Senate primary campaign in Wisconsin this year. After losing two presidential campaigns and a race for governor in the state since 2016, national Democrats are wary about spending in Ohio, once a quintessential battleground. The barrage includes a spot attacking Ryan, who has portrayed himself as a moderate, as a party-line voter beholden to Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. Other national Democrats have tipped their hat to Ryan, noting how his moderate message has put the seat within striking distance, if not higher on the party’s list of priorities. “The national Democrats have walked away from Ohio prematurely,” Griffin said.

LAS VEGAS — Jim Marchant, the election-denying Republican nominee for secretary of state in Nevada, has so far been outspent and out campaigned by his Democratic opponent. Davis, a Republican, said he “hadn’t thought much” about whether the 2020 election was stolen from Trump and remained undecided in the secretary of state race. The dynamics in Arizona’s secretary of state race are similar. He and Marchant, as well as Kristina Karamo, the Republican secretary of state nominee in Michigan, are all members of the pro-Trump America First Secretary of State Coalition, though polling shows Karamo’s race is far less competitive. “This could be the last free and fair election in Nevada,” West said.

He’s scheduled to headline a Saturday rally for Dixon and other GOP candidates in the state. Through Nov. 8, Whitmer and the Democrats have reserved $24 million in ads for the Michigan governor’s race. And the two most recent polls have shown Whitmer leading Dixon by double digits. “Isn’t that sad that Democrats have to spend so much money?” Dixon said at a news conference Tuesday when asked if she was disappointed in the lack of assistance for her campaign. The Republican Governors Association still has $3.6 million budgeted for ads in Michigan, though a spokesperson acknowledged the funding gap.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was the only GOP committee member to oppose the bill. Other numbers to know:155 miles per hour: How fast the maximum sustained winds of Hurricane Ian were as of Wednesday morning, per the National Hurricane Center. 23 percentage points: Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s edge over Republican Gov. Last night, Democratic Gov. Tim.”Oklahoma Senate: Former President Donald Trump endorsed Republican Sen. James Lankford in his Senate bid, after conspicuously not endorsing the GOP incumbent in his primary.

☆ Campaigns spend over $6.4 billion on ads for 2022 elections, making race one of the most expensive ever
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Brian Schwartz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

They've spent almost $46 million on Google ads over the last 30 days, according to the search engine's data. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC that backs House Republicans, has spent $1.32 million over the past month on Google ads. Democrats have jumped in with spending millions on Google ads over the past four weeks, records show. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, a campaign arm for Senate Democrats, has spent just over $1 million in Google ads during that time frame. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which acts as the campaign arm for House Democrats, has spent an almost equal amount on Google ads.

Laura Kelly, a Democrat, is fighting a tough re-election battle— the issue is almost nowhere to be seen. “What Kelly is doing makes perfect sense," said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University in Topeka. “I think the abortion vote is possibly very instructive nationally, and for other states, but not for Kansas,” Beatty said. Doing so also allows Kelly and her campaign to avoid wading into the violent history surrounding abortion rights activism in the state. Still, at a debate between the two candidates at the Kansas State Fair earlier this month, Schmidt accused Kelly of supporting abortion “up until the moment of birth,” which is not accurate.

State law was later changed to require unanimous Board of Pardons approval to recommend commutations for those serving life sentences. In his second term, Wolf has already commuted 47 life sentences, at the urging of the pardons board. “In making clemency decisions, John scrupulously reviewed clemency applications and consulted with corrections officials, prison wardens, judges and DAs. Fetterman has not, as one Oz ad implies, called for eliminating all life sentences for murderers. All but one of the men featured had been serving life sentences on second-degree murder convictions, with a variety of mitigating circumstances in their favor.

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