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An Uneasy Arab-Israeli Alliance
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
To understand the current confrontation between Iran and Israel, it helps to think about three recent phases of Middle East geopolitics. Phase 1: Before Oct. 7 of last year, Iran was arguably the most isolated power in the region. Israel, Iran’s longtime enemy, had signed a diplomatic deal during the Trump administration with Bahrain, Morocco and the U.A.E. Together, these developments pointed to the emergence of a broad alliance — among Arab countries, Israel, the U.S. and Western Europe — to check Iranian influence and aggression. Arab leaders condemned Israel, while the U.S. and other countries pressured Israeli leaders to reduce suffering in Gaza and devise an end to the war.
Persons: Biden, Iran’s, Trump Locations: Iran, Israel, East, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Morocco, . Iran, U.S, Europe, Gaza
The United States will impose new sanctions targeting Tehran after Iran's large-scale attack on Israel over the weekend, according to National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Most of the 300 ballistic projectiles, the majority of which are believed to have been launched from inside of Iran’s territory, were intercepted by Israel and its allies. Iran said it attacked Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its diplomatic compound in Syria. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration would use sanctions “to continue disrupting the Iranian regime’s malign and destabilizing activity.”Here are the latest developments in the region:
Persons: Jake Sullivan, Janet Yellen, Biden Organizations: National Locations: States, Tehran, Israel, Iran, Syria
Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.
Persons: , that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen
Cars are stuck on a flooded road after a rainstorm hit Dubai, United Arab Emirates on Wednesday. Large jets looked more like boats moving through the flooded airport as water sprayed in their wake and waves rippled through the deep water. Video shared on social media showed furniture flying off balconies. Images published in local media showed traffic gridlocked on Dubai’s Sheikh Zayed Road, a 16-lane thoroughfare. Other videos from social media showed water rushing through a major shopping mall and inundating the ground floor of homes.
Persons: UAE CNN —, Rula Rouhana, Ras, Dubai International Airport –, Dubai’s Sheikh, Stringer Organizations: UAE CNN, United, United Arab Emirates, United Nations, Emergency Management, Wednesday, Dubai International Airport, Emirates, Flydubai, Dubai International, AFP, Getty, Dubai Marina, Dubai Metro, Anadolu, National, of Meteorology Locations: Dubai, UAE, United Arab, Gulf of Oman, Oman, Iran, Ras Al, Khaimah, Pakistan, Iran’s, Chabahar, Sistan, Baluchestan, Emirates, Dubai’s, Business, Persian
Iran and Israel have fought a deadly shadow war for decades. The two enemies have relied on proxy forces, assassinations, and strikes abroad to hit each other. AdvertisementA decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel has been thrust into broad daylight. Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel last weekend has notably changed the dynamics of this conflict, and it's now more dangerous. Any Israeli military response to the attack risks an all-out confrontation with Iran and could plunge the region into even more violence.
Persons: , Alma al, KAWNAT HAJU, Jonathan Lord, Israel, MAHER, MOUNES, Israel —, Joseph Votel, Votel, Christophe Van Der Perre Israel, Josep Borrell, Maj, Hossein, Lord Organizations: Service, Hezbollah, Getty Images Israel, Pentagon, Business, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Getty, US Central Command, REUTERS Locations: Iran, Israel, Tehran, Lebanon, Hamas, Gaza, Lebanese, Alma, AFP, Iraq, Syria, Israel's, Hormuz, Iranian, Damascus, Syria's, Arad, Spanish
That's a boost for the regional air defense network the US wants. AdvertisementThe United States shot down more of the incoming Iranian drones than Israel and played a central role in the "multinational air defense operation" consisting of British, French, and Jordanian air forces. An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel on April 14, 2024. "Russia will seek to offset the US success in backing Israel by looking to buttress Iran's defense with advanced Russian systems such as the Su-35," Heras said. There were also reports last year indicating Iran also seeks the advanced Russian S-400 air defense missile system.
Persons: , Biden, Jordan, MEAD, Nicholas Heras, Amir Cohen, Heras, Nadimi, Alexander Zemlianichenko, Su Organizations: Service, Biden, East Air Defense, UAE —, New Lines Institute, United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, Washington Institute for Near East, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, AP Locations: Israel, Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, States, Jordanian, Israeli, Mar, Ashkelon, United States, Tehran, Russian, Syria, Moscow, Su
CNN —A lack of air defenses meant Ukraine was powerless to prevent a Russian airstrike last week that destroyed the biggest power plant in Kyiv region, President Volodomyr Zelensky said. Russia fired 11 missiles towards the Trypilska power plant, Zelensky said. We ran out of all missiles,” Zelensky told PBS NewsHour in an interview that aired Monday. Zelensky questioned why Israel has enjoyed such comprehensive support from NATO members despite not being a member of the alliance. The NATO allies, including NATO countries, have been defending Israel.
Persons: Volodomyr Zelensky, Zelensky, ” Zelensky, Zelenksy, Iran’s, wouldn’t, , Israel, Mike Johnson, Johnson, Anna Rose Layden Organizations: CNN, PBS, House Republicans, NATO, Conference, Locations: Ukraine, Kyiv, Russia, Ukrainian, United States, Israel, Iran, Jordanian, Taiwan, Washington ,
Iran’s attack on Israel, an immense barrage that included hundreds of ballistic missiles and exploding drones, changed the unspoken rules in the archrivals’ long-running shadow war. In that conflict, major airstrikes from one country’s territory directly against the other had been avoided. Given that change in precedent, the calculus by which Israel decides its next move has also changed, said the Israeli officials who requested anonymity to discuss Iran. “We cannot stand still from this kind of aggression,” Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the spokesman for Israel’s military said on Tuesday. Iran, he added, would not get off “scot-free with this aggression.”
Persons: Israel, Daniel Hagari, “ scot, Locations: Israel, Iran
In a paradigm shift after decades of shadow proxy war, Tehran is usurping Israel’s strategy. “We have decided to create a new equation,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said. When faced with existential threats in the past, Israel has executed the most audacious raids the region has ever witnessed. The damage that can be inflicted on Iran is huge, is huge.”So the most important question right now must be, can Netanyahu read the room right – with Iran threatening to attack, allies warning him not to – and avoid triggering a regional war. Iran, he implied, won’t attack Israel as long as it fears America’s reaction.
Persons: CNN —, Joe Biden’s, Ebrahim Raisi’s, ” Israel, Hossein, , Bashar al, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, Benny Ganz –, David Barnea, Staff Herzi Halevi, Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, of National Security Itamar Ben, Gvir, Ganz, Gallant, – Ganz, ” Netanyahu, ” Netanyahu’s, Saleh Al, Amos Yadlin, Yadlin, ” Yadlin, Bashar, Iran’s, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, Biden Organizations: CNN, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, , Staff, of National Security, IDF’s Military Intelligence, UN Security Locations: CNN — Israel, Israel, Iran, Tehran, Osirak, Syria, Tel Aviv, Gaza, Lebanese, Beirut, Lebanon, Damascus, America
Miraculously, by a feat of military technology bolstered by coordination with friends and allies, Israel was able to repel the massive attack. The Quds Force commanders have been working with Iran-allied Hezbollah, which has been shelling Israel since Oct. 7, when Hamas launched an attack from Gaza. What if Iran’s missiles and drones had carried nuclear material? In addition, the US was able to work out of its bases in Qatar and northern Iraq to counter Iran’s attack. The Iranian attack has revealed that Israel does have friends, including some in very important places: across the Middle East.
Persons: Frida Ghitis, Israel, Frida Ghitis Tanya Malott, Jerusalem —, Jesus, Israel unlivable, Israel —, Benjamin Netanyahu, , General Antonio Guterres “, , Jordan, ” Saudi Arabia — Iran’s, Benny Gantz, ” Biden, , Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben Gvir, John Bolton Organizations: CNN, Washington Post, Politics, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Israel, Quds Force, Hamas, Ukraine, Street Journal, United Arab, Finance, National Security Locations: Israel, Jerusalem, al, Aqsa, Iran, Arab Israeli, Damascus, Gaza, Beirut, Buenos Aires, Jordan, Iraq, North Korea, Israeli, Palestinian, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Russia, Argentina, Japan, United States, France, ” Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Republic
Before this weekend's tanker seizure, the last vessel Iran hijacked was the St. Nikolas on January 1. A Planet Labs satellite image of the location of the MSC Aries and other tankers recently hijacked by Iran. Planet Labs PBCAs the U.S. considers more sanctions against Iran in response to its recent attack on Israel, Iran has been using the hijacked ships as a means of sanctions retaliation. Iran chose to do this as a way to compensate for sanctions," Madani said. In a note to clients, ClearView highlighted that the House of Representatives added several Iran sanctions bills to its calendar for consideration this week, under suspension rules, including new sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China.
Persons: Nikolas, Houthis, Samir Madani, Eyal Ofer's, Madani, Janet Yellen, Helima Croft, Andy Lipow, Brent, Lipow, Kevin Book, Book Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, MSC Aries, U.S . Naval Forces Central Command, Galaxy Leader, MSC, Planet Labs, U.S . Energy Information Agency, United Arab, JPMorgan, CNBC, Lipow Oil Associates, ClearView Energy Partners, US, UN Locations: Gulf of Oman, Hormuz, Anadolu, Iran, Israel, Gaza, U.S, Iranian, Khuran, China, Russia, Malaysia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Strait, Tehran, East, North Africa, India, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, France, Germany
Iran on April 14 urged Israel not to retaliate militarily to an unprecedented attack overnight, which Tehran presented as a justified response to a deadly strike on its consulate building in Damascus. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)Crude oil futures fell for a second day Tuesday as the U.S. expects a limited response from Israel to an unprecedented air assault by Iran, reducing fears that the Middle East is on the verge of a broader regional war. Four U.S. officials told NBC News they expect an Israeli response to Iran's attack to be limited in scope and most likely to involve strikes on Iranian forces and their proxies outside Iran. Israel's War Cabinet met for several hours Monday to weigh how Israel should response. An Israeli official told NBC News after the meeting that a response may be "imminent."
Persons: ATTA KENARE, Brent, Jorge Leon Organizations: Getty, West Texas Intermediate, U.S, NBC News, Rystad Energy Locations: Persian, Israel, Tehran, Iran, Damascus, AFP
Several major gauges of fear in the market are reflecting increased alarm from investors. @VX.1 1Y mountain The VIX over the past year At the same time, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has tipped into "fear" territory this week. Rising oil prices have also weighed on the stock market, as commodity traders bought in on expectations of escalating conflict in the Middle East. But he said the key threat to this outlook is if the conflict in the Middle East further spirals. "But, the caveat is, if things really go sideways in the Middle East, that could change the calculus."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alex McGrath, You've, Dow, Jason Heller, Heller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Coastal Wealth Locations: East, Iran, Israel
A Diplomatic Victory of Uncertain Staying Power
  + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Peter Baker | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Had just one missile or drone gotten through and killed a lot of Israelis, American officials feared, the region could have gone up in flames. Mr. Biden and his team hoped that the developments over the weekend could give all three major actors enough to claim victory and walk away. Iran could claim vindication for taking aggressive action in response to the Israeli strike that killed some of its top military officers. Israel showed the world that its military is too formidable to challenge and that Iran is impotent against it. Rather than pocketing the win, such as it was, Israeli officials said on Monday that they would respond — without saying when or exactly how — and Mr. Biden’s advisers were bracing to see what that might entail.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden Locations: U.S, Iran, United States
Crude oil prices have been volatile in April amid heightened geopolitical risks. Fears of a spillover conflict in the Middle East have led some market watchers to predict oil prices could soar to $100 per barrel and beyond . Any disruption in its capacity to supply global markets could send oil prices higher, analysts told CNBC. Oil and gas stocks that show a negative correlation with crude oil prices will enable investors to withstand any volatility while remaining invested in the sector. A correlation of 0 would mean no link between the crude oil price and the stock price.
Persons: Bartosz, Andy Lipow, — CNBC's Lee Ying Shan, Jenni Reid Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, CNBC, Brent, Lipow Oil Associates, CNBC Pro, Energy Locations: Iran, Israel, Conotoxia, Hormuz, lockstep
Iran on April 14 urged Israel not to retaliate militarily to an unprecedented attack overnight, which Tehran presented as a justified response to a deadly strike on its consulate building in Damascus. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)Iran's weekend attack on Israel marks a "new paradigm" in the Middle East conflict, which risks escalating into a wider regional war, Chatham House's Middle East director said Monday. "The Israeli leadership will have a hard time not responding. Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles against military targets inside Israel on Saturday in response to a suspected Israeli strike that killed top Iranian officials in Syria. The attack, though well telegraphed in advance, has presented some opportunity for Israel to rehabilitate its image following its months-long onslaught in Gaza, which many perceive as disproportionate to Hamas' Oct. 7 terror attacks.
Persons: ATTA KENARE, Sanam Vakil, thinktank, it's, Vakil, CNBC's Organizations: Getty, Chatham House's Locations: Persian, Israel, Tehran, Iran, Damascus, AFP, London, Syria, Gaza
But Israel will need to strike a delicate balance, he noted, highlighting that "they don't want an overt conflict with Iran." Iran has said the attack on Israel was in response to an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria earlier this month. The Islamic regime has accused Israel of the April 1 attack which killed seven Iranian military personnel, including senior commanders. Israel and Iran have been at odds for decades, with Iran funding and supporting groups opposing Israel including Palestinian militant group Hamas. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has often been referred to as a proxy war between Israel and Iran.
Persons: Amir Cohen, Israel, Joe Biden, Ryan Bohl, Bohl, CNBC's, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, Amir Saeid Iravani, Bashar al, Assad, David Roche, Roche, Israel's, What's Organizations: Reuters, Middle East, Rane, NBC News, United Nations, Palestinian, Hamas, Yemeni, Independent, CNBC Locations: Gaza, Ashkelon, Israel, Reuters Israel, Iran, North Africa, Damascus, Syria, Tehran, United States
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesWorld leaders have called for calm in the aftermath of Iran's large-scale air attacks on Israel on Saturday, with many expressing deep concern over the prospect of a broader regional conflict. Ahead of a war cabinet meeting on Monday, Israel has pledged to "exact a price" from Iran in response to the Saturday attack. watch nowU.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday said that he condemned "in the strongest possible terms" Iran's unprecedented air attack against military facilities in Israel. 'No one wants to see more bloodshed'European leaders castigated Iran's attack against Israel and vowed to work to de-escalate the situation. France and the U.K. intercepted some of Iran's strikes on Israel on Saturday.
Persons: Israel, Joe Biden, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran's, Emmanuel Macron, Rishi Sunak, Annalena Baerbock, Baerbock, Sunak, Yoko Kamikawa, Kamikawa, Gustavo Petro, Petro, Nicolas Maduro Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, CNBC, NBC News, Downing, German, NBC, Israel, Saudi Arabia's Foreign, United Nations Security Council, Sunday, UN, UNRWA, Kyodo, Japan's, United Nations, Colombia's, Bloomberg Locations: Israel, Tehran, Iran, Syria, Gaza, Syrian, Damascus, France, London, England, Germany, East, North Africa, Saudi, Egypt, Asia, China, Beijing, Palestine, Tokyo, Japan, South America, U.S, Miraflores, Caracas, Venezuela
Until Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones against Israel, the two countries had avoided open military intrusions into each other’s territory. Tehran most often acted through proxies, and Jerusalem via bombing runs and unacknowledged assassinations in the region. Iran’s unprecedented attack this weekend, which failed to kill a single Israeli, has perhaps now opened the clerical regime to a major reprisal. And the best way for Washington to limit the expansion of this conflict is to signal clearly its intention to support an Israeli counterattack. Iran’s internal situation, its memory about past U.S. military action and a conspiratorial worldview all support this strategy.
Persons: Jerusalem, Ali Khamenei Locations: Tehran, Jerusalem, United States, Israel, Washington, Israeli, America
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon issued a warning in the bank's earnings report Friday. With so much at stake, here's an earnings season cheat sheet of when some of the biggest companies are reporting and the storylines to follow. Themes to watch: AI could reduce the number of junior bank employees thanks to the tech automating their grunt work . Themes to watch: Netflix was dubbed the king of streaming earlier this year after a big earnings report. The bank's earnings report beat analysts' expectations, but advisory revenues were down 21% year-over-year.
Persons: , Donald Trump's, iStock, Rebecca Zisser, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Michael M, Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Will Meta, Bob Iger's, Brooks Kraft, Jeremy Barnum, it's, Jeff Currie, Justin Sullivan, Tesla, Elon Musk, Musk, Marco Bottigelli, Yevgen Romanenko, Tyler Le, Michelle Grisé, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, JPMorgan . Tech, JPMorgan, New York Stock Exchange, Finance Key Companies, Bank of America, Companies, Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Retail, Walmart, Costco, Netflix, Disney, Paramount Global, Boeing, Brooks Kraft LLC, Getty, BI, Healthcare, RAND, Boston Marathon Locations: Israel, Russia, United States, New York, London, Chicago
But the calm could be short lived, as world leaders and markets focus on Israel’s response. Military clashes don’t always sink the markets, as was the case when Hamas attacked Israel in October and Israel retaliated. “We may be entering one of the most treacherous geopolitical eras since World War II,” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s C.E.O., warned last week. “Take the win,” President Biden reportedly told Israel’s embattled prime minister after the attack was rebuffed with American help. Iran has signaled that the attack was a one-and-done, but Israel’s war cabinet hasn’t indicated its next move.
Persons: Israel, ” Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden, hasn’t, Helima Croft Organizations: JPMorgan, , RBC Capital Markets Locations: Israel, Ukraine, United States, Iran
Oil prices were slightly lower Monday as Israel, aided by the U.S., fended off Iran's aerial barrage. The investment bank believes aerospace and defense stocks could outperform in the short run in light of growing geopolitical risks. The biggest ETF in the industry is the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) , with about $5 billion in assets under management. Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA ) and SPDR S & P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) are two other popular offerings. To be sure, Liberum thinks the stock market could quickly reverse any losses as soon as the tensions in the Middle East ease.
Persons: Israel retaliating, Liberum, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Liberum, U.S ., Federal Reserve, West Texas Intermediate, May, U.S . Aerospace & Defense ETF, ITA, Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF, P Aerospace & Defense ETF Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Syria, U.S
Gold could have room for further upside as tensions in the Middle East mount, according to JPMorgan. Spot gold has been on a tear in 2024 with a gain of more than 14%. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce intraday on Friday as investors braced for a further escalation in the Middle East. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold hit a fresh all-time high on Friday, but JPMorgan thinks bullion has more room to run. "Given positioning and recent price action, mean reversion risk in gold still remains elevated in the near-term though geopolitics remain a bullish-skewed wildcard amid risks of an escalating retaliation cycle between Israel and Iran," Shearer said.
Persons: Gregory C, Shearer, " Shearer, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Reserve Locations: Iran, Israel, Damascus, Syria, @GC
JPMorgan says Iran's drone attack on Israel over the weekend can drive a near-term surge in Lockheed Martin stock. LMT YTD mountain Lockheed Martin stock. "What we can say is that it's a dangerous world and while that is not a sufficient condition for Defense stocks to outperform, it is a potential source of support, especially when they are under-owned." The analyst added that Lockheed Martin and the array of defense stocks could benefit from a small increase to the defense budget last month, forecasting some supplemental spending for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Lockheed Martin stock has lagged the broader market so far in 2024, falling less than 1% through Friday.
Persons: Seth Seifman, Seifman, Lockheed Martin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Lockheed Locations: Israel, Lockheed Martin, Ukraine, Taiwan
The oil market has brushed off Iran's weekend air assault against Israel, with futures trading as much as 1.5% lower on Monday. Oil prices could spike above $100 a barrel depending on how Israel responds to the attack, the analyst wrote. Attack 'well-telegraphed' Iran's attack, though unprecedented, did little actual damage as Israel and the U.S. intercepted nearly all the drones and missiles. The Islamic Republic warned, however, it would strike harder next time if Israel responds to the weekend attack. Potential threats include Iran seizing ships associated with Israel in the Strait of Hormuz; Israel attacking Iranian oil and gas assets; or Iran striking energy assets of its neighbors if Israel hits too hard.
Persons: Israel, Maximilian Layton, Layton, Brent, Helima Croft, CNBC's, Natasha Kaneva, Kaneva, Goldman, Daan Struyven, RBC's Croft, Jan Stuart, Piper Sandler, Stuart Organizations: Citi ., Brent, Citi, RBC Capital Markets, RBC, U.S, United Nations, Islamic, JPMorgan, CNBC Locations: Israel, Iran, Damascus, Syria, Tehran, Lebanon, Republic, Islamic Republic, Goldman Sachs, Strait, Hormuz, Iranian
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