A week's worth of surprising economic data sent a pretty strong message to the market: Inflation that is higher than anticipated is likely to translate into higher interest rates as well.
"We are listening to the signal from January inflation data, which suggest the disinflation process may be more prolonged than we previously believed," wrote Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America.
The data surprises began two weeks ago when nonfarm payrolls surged by a stunning 517,000 in January , raising concerns that a resilient labor market could drive wages, and inflation, higher.
The consumer price index , a closely watched inflation metric, jumped 0.5% in January, a bit more than expected.
Futures pricing points to a peak, or "terminal," rate of 5.23%, according to the August 2023 fed funds futures contract.