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☆ Goldman Sachs lowers the chance the U.S. could slide into a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Convinced the threat from a banking crisis has largely passed, Goldman Sachs has raised the chances the U.S. economy can avoid a recession. With the debt issue resolved and banking stresses abated, Goldman now sees the path to a continued expansion, albeit a slow one, more clearly. First, the tail risk of a disruptive debt ceiling fight has disappeared," Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman, said in a client note. "Meanwhile, the economy is getting a sizable boost from the recovery in real disposable income and the stabilization in the housing market," Hatzius said. Most economists expect the U.S. will experience at least a mild recession later this year or early in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, nonfarm, Goldman isn't, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Goldman, Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Silicon, U.S

The S&P 500 on Friday closed at its highest level in over nine months after a report showed that wage growth moderated in May. The S&P 500 declined 0.20% to end the session at 4,273.79 points. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, seven declined, led lower by industrials (.SPLRCI), down 0.71%, followed by a 0.58% loss in energy (.SPNY). Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.5-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 17 new highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 90 new highs and 54 new lows.

Persons: Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls, Snyder, Sruthi Shankar, Shristi, Noel Randewich, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Alto Networks, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S . Federal, Apple, Apple Inc, Pro, Nvidia Corp, Tesla Inc, Nvidia, Microsoft Corp, Institute for Supply Management, Fed, Traders, Dow Jones, Palo Alto Networks, Dish Network Corp, Big, Wall Street Journal, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, New York, Palo, Big U.S, Bengaluru, Oakland, Calif

☆ Dollar falls after weak services data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday on news that the U.S. services sector barely grew in May as new orders slowed, ending an initial rally sparked by strong jobs growth. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services industry, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The dollar index fell to 104.00, down 0.13% on the day, after climbing as high as 104.40. The Aussie dollar edged higher before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is due to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. "We expect the RBA to hike tomorrow and guide for more, leading to a ~25-bp upgrade to terminal rate pricing and a sharp AUD rally."

Persons: Bill Adams, Brian Daingerfield, Philip Jefferson, Daingerfield, Wells, Erik Nelson, Jack Boswell, Iain Withers, Kirsten Donovan, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, Comerica Bank, Reserve, NatWest Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Stamford , Connecticut, U.S, London

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow Edges Down, S&P 500 Climbs With Apple Stock in Focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

The broad-based S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq were higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped. Oil prices rose. Apple shares rose nearly 2%, with the tech giant set to unveil its first major new product in nearly a decade. Palo Alto Networks shares rose 5% after news it would replace Dish Network in the S&P 500. Dish Network shares fell.

Persons: Stocks Organizations: Federal, Institute for Supply Management, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Brent, Apple, Palo Alto Networks, Dish Network Locations: Saudi Arabia, U.S

"That would suggest that core prices will come down, albeit at a much slower rate than originally thought." ET, Dow e-minis were up 31 points, or 0.09%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 2.75 points, or 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 17 points, or 0.12%. Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW.O) climbed 4.6% as the cybersecurity firm looks set to replace Dish Network (DISH.O) in the S&P 500 index. Apple Inc (AAPL.O) rose 1.0% ahead of its annual software developer conference, where it is widely expected to announce a new mixed-reality headset. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Michael Hewson, Loretta Mester, Sruthi Shankar, Shristi, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Traders, CMC Markets, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Fed Cleveland, Dow e, . Energy, Exxon Mobil Corp, Chevron Corp, Schlumberger Ltd, Saudi, Palo Alto Networks, Dish Network, Big, Wall Street Journal, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc, Apple Inc, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, U.S, Washington, Big U.S, Bengaluru

☆ US services sector softens, factory orders boosted by defense
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Momentum had been very strong in the services sector since the reopening process began, but the sector is clearly cooling down now," Thomas Simons, U.S. economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note. The services sector is at the center of the battle against inflation, as services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to rate hikes. ISM services PMISome economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. Excluding the defense sector, orders were down 0.4%, and excluding transportation orders - where military orders again had the largest footprint - bookings were down 0.2%. With consumer spending shifting more toward services, consumer goods orders slid for a third straight month to their lowest level since February 2022.

Persons: Thomas Simons, Simons, Lucia Mutikani, Dan Burns, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, PMI, ISM, Fed, Jefferies, U.S, Services, Commerce Department, Factory, Thomson Locations: U.S

SummarySummary Companies Palo Alto gains on S&P 500 index inclusionApple climbs ahead of developer conferenceIndexes: Dow down 0.25%, S&P up 0.22%, Nasdaq up 0.46%June 5 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose on Monday, as Apple scaled an all-time peak and investors weighed up chances of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes at its upcoming policy meeting. Other growth stocks also rose, with Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) gaining 1.8% and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) adding 0.9%. Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW.O) climbed 5.5% as the cybersecurity firm looks set to replace Dish Network (DISH.O) in the S&P 500 index. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.56-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.35-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 14 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 70 new highs and 32 new lows.

Persons: Thomas Hayes, Sam Stovall, advancers, Sruthi Shankar, Shristi, Vinay Dwivedi, Anil D'Silva Organizations: Palo, Dow, Nasdaq, Apple, Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Great, Capital, Institute for Supply Management, CFRA Research, Dow Jones, Palo Alto Networks, Dish Network, Big, Wall Street Journal, Tesla Inc, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Big U.S, China, Bengaluru

☆ Defense spending lifts US factory orders in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

June 5 (Reuters) - New orders for U.S.-made goods rose for a second straight month in April, boosted largely by defense spending, but the overall manufacturing industry continued to struggle under the weight of higher interest rates. Factory orders increased 0.4% after a 0.6% gain in March, the Commerce Department said on Monday. Orders increased 1.4% through April from a year earlier. The Institute for Supply Management last week said its manufacturing PMI contracted for a seventh straight month in May. Excluding transportation, orders fell 0.2%, dropping for a third straight month and to their lowest since February 2022.

Persons: Banks, Dan Burns, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Commerce Department, Reuters, Federal, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Civilian, Thomson

☆ Stock futures are little changed after the S&P 500’s best week since March
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. equity futures were little changed Sunday evening after a broad-based rally last week that pushed the S&P 500 to its best week since March, and its highest level since last August. S&P 500 futures were higher by 0.09% and Nasdaq-100 futures hovered below the flat line. On Friday, stocks rallied to end the week following strong jobs data for the month of May. The Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, for its best day since January, ending the week at 33,762.76. "Recent banking sector developments are also encouraging, and repeated signs of labor market strength are reducing the risk negative outcomes.

Persons: Dow, Joe Biden, Dow Jones, Mace McCain, Yung, Yu Ma, Smucker, Campbell Soup Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S ., Labor Department . Public, Frost Investment Advisors, BMO, CNBC, Investors, Natural Foods, Signet Jewelers, PMI, Institute for Supply Management, Global, Mortgage, Association

[1/2] A tug boat pushes an oil barge through New York Harbor past the Statue of Liberty in New York City, U.S., May 24, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidLONDON, June 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday after a U.S. debt ceiling deal averted a default in the world's biggest oil consumer and jobs data indicated a possible rate hike pause, while attention turned to a meeting of OPEC ministers and their allies at the weekend. Earlier signals of a potential pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve also provided support to oil prices, not least by weighing on the U.S. dollar , making oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. Meanwhile, manufacturing data out of China, the world's second biggest oil consumer, painted a mixed picture. Reporting by Shadia Nasralla; additional reporting by Andrew Hayley; editing by Susan Fenton and Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid LONDON, Shadia Nasralla, Andrew Hayley, Susan Fenton, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Organization of, Petroleum, U.S . Institute for Supply Management, Thomson Locations: New York Harbor, of, New York City, U.S, Russia, China

☆ Oil prices rise as Congress approves US debt ceiling bill
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Andrew Hayley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidBEIJING, June 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday amid bullish sentiment following the passage of a U.S. debt ceiling bill in Washington, while markets weighed the likelihood of price-supportive OPEC+ production cuts over the weekend. Further reductions in OPEC+ output following their surprise cut of 1.16 million barrels per day in April would be bullish for crude prices. Other market observers have pointed to weak manufacturing data out of China and the U.S. as making OPEC+ cuts more likely. "Oil prices are stabilizing after a round of disappointing global manufacturing data supported the case for OPEC+ to deliver another production cut," said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at OANDA. However, traders are "thinking that Russia might not necessarily stick to a hard stance on output cuts, especially since they are struggling to commit to their quotes," Moya added.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Edward Moya, Thursday's, Moya, Andrew Hayley, Jamie Freed, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Federal Reserve, Thursday's, Energy Information Administration, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, HSBC, OANDA, U.S ., Institute for Supply Management, PMI, P Global, Thomson Locations: New York Harbor, of, New York City, U.S, Brendan McDermid BEIJING, Washington, Russia, China, P Global China

LONDON, June 2 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing and freight activity has declined for seven months running, reflected in falling consumption of diesel and other distillate fuel oils as well as industrial electricity sales. Chartbook: U.S. manufacturing and energy useBecause manufacturing output is closely correlated with consumption of distillate fuel oils and industrial electricity use, the downturn is filtering through into significant reductions in energy consumption. Electricity sales to industrial customers also fell in seven of the eight months ending in February 2023, again the most recent data available (“Monthly energy review”, EIA, May 25). Between December 2022 and February 2023, industrial power sales were down more 2.4% compared with a year earlier (14th percentile for all three-month periods since 1980). Only the residual strength of service sector spending has so far prevented the “industrial recession” becoming a whole-economy recession.

Persons: John Kemp, David Evans Organizations: Manufacturers, Institute for Supply Management, “ Petroleum, U.S . Energy Information Administration, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S

[1/2] A tug boat pushes an oil barge through New York Harbor past the Statue of Liberty in New York City, U.S., May 24, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidLONDON, June 2 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday after a U.S. debt ceiling deal averted a default in the world's biggest oil consumer, while attention turned to a meeting of OPEC ministers and their allies at the weekend. Earlier signals of a potential pause in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve also provided support to oil prices, not least by weighing on the U.S. dollar , making oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. Investor attention is also fixed on the June 4 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, collectively called OPEC+. Meanwhile, manufacturing data out of China, the world's second biggest oil consumer, painted a mixed picture.

Persons: Brendan McDermid LONDON, Shadia Nasralla, Andrew Hayley, Susan Fenton, Jason Neely Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Organization of, Petroleum, U.S . Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York Harbor, of, New York City, U.S, Russia, China

Fed officials pointed toward a rate hike "skip" at its June 13-14 meeting, giving time for the central bank to assess the impact of its tightening cycle thus far against still-strong inflation data. U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month in May as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates, but factories boosted employment to a nine-month high. "We have made clear that we still have ground to cover to bring interest rates to sufficiently restrictive levels," Lagarde said in a speech. Money markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike when the ECB meets on June 15. "There's a sort of narrowing interest rate differential ... when the ECB is expected to hike one or two more times and the Fed is more questionable about that."

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Edward Moya, Patrick Harker, payrolls, Lagarde, John Velis, Hannah Lang, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Andrew Heavens, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Leslie Adler Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, OANDA, Philadelphia Federal, ADP, Institute for Supply Management, ECB, BNY Mellon, Thomson Locations: OANDA . U.S, Washington, London, Singapore

☆ US weekly jobless claims rise slightly; labor market defies recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Labor market conditions are still tight," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. "While we expect the Fed to leave rates steady at its upcoming meeting, a more sustained loosening of labor market conditions is needed to keep rate hikes permanently off the table." Unadjusted claims increased by 5,296 to 207,941 last week, with notable rises in New York, Ohio and Illinois. While the labor market continues to surprise with strength, manufacturing is in a downward spiral. The Fed's "Beige Book" report on Wednesday described the labor market as having "continued to be strong" in May, but noted that "many contacts" were "fully staffed."

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Unadjusted, nonfarm payrolls, payrolls, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: PMI, Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor, Oxford Economics, Labor Department, Reuters, Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: May WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, New York , Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts

☆ U.S. manufacturing slumps further in May; employment picks up
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing contracted for a seventh straight month in May as new orders continued to plummet amid higher interest rates, but factories boosted employment to a nine-month high. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 last month from 47.1 in April. It was the seventh straight month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, the longest such stretch since the Great Recession. The persistent weak readings in the PMI support analysts' expectations that the economy will slip into recession this year. That suggests further gains in manufacturing payrolls in May after they rebounded in April.

Persons: Banks, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Reuters, Manufacturing, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: U.S

"The bill now moves to the Senate, where we believe it will clear the 60-vote hurdle after some political and procedural posturing," analysts at BTIG said. ET, Dow e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 22.5 points, or 0.16%. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing PMI for May will also be on the watch list. C3.ai Inc (AI.N) slumped 22.8% after the artificial intelligence company forecast annual revenue outlook below street estimates. Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BTIG, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, Shreyashi Sanyal, Shristi, Shounak Dasgupta, Maju Samuel Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Republicans, Senate, Dow e, U.S . Federal Reserve, Labor, P Global, PMI, Institute for Supply, Fed Governor, Philadelphia Fed, Dow Jones, Nordstrom, Macy's Inc, Dollar General Corp, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

☆ New York factory activity slumps in May - NY Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, May 15 (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve said on Monday its barometer of manufacturing activity in New York State plunged in May, but the survey is extremely volatile, making it harder to interpret. A reading below zero signals the New York manufacturing sector is contracting. Nevertheless, higher interest rates and the rotation of spending back to services from goods is hurting national manufacturing activity. Tighter credit conditions are also seen as a drag. The New York Fed will on Tuesday publish a survey focusing on credit access and credit conditions.

☆ Will wages outpace inflation for long? It depends on the job
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Washington, DC CNN —Wages are now finally beating inflation, according to the latest quarterly data on wage growth. That was the biggest monthly increase since March 2022, though wage growth had gradually slowed since then. “The folks who left one company and went to another are the ones who are still benefiting from wage growth,” said Morgan Llewellyn, chief data scientist at Jobvite. Part of the continued strength in wage growth largely has to do with employers’ difficulty in hiring, which varies by industry. “Wage growth has still been higher for job changers than job stayers and that suggests that there’s still a shortage of labor for some companies,” said Dawn Fay, operational president at staffing firm Robert Half.

Observers often disagree at the time whether the economy is already in recession, and sometimes afterwards whether a recession has occurred or just a “soft patch” in an otherwise uninterrupted business cycle expansion. But the same surveys show the much larger service sector still reporting marginal growth, keeping the economy as a whole out of recession so far. Chartbook: U.S. economic indicatorsThe Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) service sector index stood at 51.9 in April (with more businesses reporting expanding activity than contraction) compared with a manufacturing sector index of just 47.1. In April, the ISM services index was in only the 15th percentile for all months since 1997 compared with the manufacturing index in only the 9th percentile. If the manufacturing sector has already fallen into recession, the services sector is only just avoiding it at the moment.

LONDON, May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing and freight activity has declined for six months running, which is being reflected in falling consumption of diesel and other distillate fuel oils as well as industrial electricity sales. The index has fallen to levels that have coincided with a significant mid-cycle downturn in industrial activity or a cycle-ending recession in the past. Chartbook: U.S. diesel and electricity useBecause manufacturing output is closely correlated with consumption of distillate fuel oils and industrial electricity use, the downturn is filtering through into significant reductions in energy consumption. Between November and January, industrial electricity sales were down by an average of 3% compared with a year earlier (12th percentile for all three-month periods since 1980). Related columns:- Hard-ish landing has already arrived for U.S. manufacturers (April 4, 2023)- U.S. diesel consumption falls as economy slows (March 1, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ U.S. services sector grows steadily in April -ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The services sector is being supported by consumers shifting spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. Services inflation remained strong. Services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to interest rate increases. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. Services sector employment growth slowed further.

☆ US factory orders rebound on aircraft in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Factory orders increased 0.9% after decreasing 1.1% in February, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. Orders increased 2.4% on a year-on-year basis in March. Orders for transportation equipment increased 9.0% after dropping 3.2% in February. Civilian aircraft orders soared 78.3%. Motor vehicle orders fell 0.6%.

☆ Wall Street near flat after First Republic news, awaiting Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed, which has been raising rates to cool inflation, is expected to hike rates an additional 25 basis points on Wednesday. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidEnergy (.SPNY) was down the most of the major S&P 500 sectors, falling 1.3% as crude oil prices declined , . First-quarter results from S&P 500 companies have mostly beaten expectations, easing economic concerns. The S&P 500 technology index (.SPLRCT) climbed 0.2% on Monday, offsetting some of the day's weakness. The S&P 500 posted 35 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 88 new highs and 188 new lows.

☆ US manufacturing contacts again in April but pulls off 3-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI increased to 47.1 last month from 46.3 in March, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. It was the sixth straight month that the PMI remained below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. The proportion of manufacturing GDP with a composite PMI calculation at or below 45 percent - a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness - was 12 percent in April, compared to 25 percent in March, said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Only two of the six biggest manufacturing industries, petroleum and coal products as well as transportation equipment, reported growth last month. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index rose to 45.7 last month from 44.3 in March.

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