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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. The Commerce Department report showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, considered to be the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, climbed 3.3% in July on an annual basis, meeting expectations of a 3.3% rise. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core PCE price index rose 4.2% in July, year-on-year, also in line with estimates. Investors are now awaiting the more comprehensive non-farm payrolls data due on Friday for more clarity on the Fed's likely monetary path. Dismal manufacturing data from China sent U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies JD.com and Baidu down 3.1% and 1.8%, respectively.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, we've, Tony Roth, Shristi Achar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Commerce Department, Traders, Wilmington Trust, Dow Jones, Baidu, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wilmington, payrolls, China, Bengaluru
Rent growth is rapidly decelerating across the US after taking off during the pandemic. Lower rent growth means that the cost of an apartment is still climbing, just at a slower pace. Renting may be expensive, but considering how many are feeling about the economy, it's easy to see why so many are sticking to apartments — especially as rent growth steadily slides. 42 cities that are getting more affordableBelow are 42 real estate markets where median rent for a one-bedroom apartment is lower than it was in 2022, according to Zumper. Along with each city are its year-over-year and month-over-month rent changes, average rent price, and national rent ranking among the largest 100 US cities.
Persons: Price, Anthemos Georgiades, Georgiades
Regardless, the major averages are set to close a losing month as higher yields and Fitch downgrades weighed on equities this month. "Further cooling in the labor market and the services sector," said Brian Ellis, portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. The labor report will be preceded by the July personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, report on Thursday. In fact, many investors expect that the Federal Reserve is probably done hiking rates here as policymakers await the effects of higher rates on the real economy. Increasingly, investors are looking for opportunities in income as they deal with the possibility of higher rates for longer.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jay Hatfield, Fitch downgrades, nonfarm, Brian Ellis, Powell, Morgan, Ellis, Ben Kirby, that's, Thornburg's Kirby, Campbell Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Capital Management, Dow Jones Industrial, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Federal Reserve, Thornburg Investment Management, Labor, Investors, Dallas Fed, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, ADP, Costco, PCE, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, Dollar, Broadcom, Jobs, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, cautiousness, Smucker, Chicago
"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell
New York CNN —The Chinese economy has hit a rough patch. What’s happening: Chinese consumer spending, factory production and investments in long-term assets like property or machinery all slumped last month. On Monday, the Chinese government surprised investors by deciding not to cut an important interest rate that influences mortgages. The beauty company is “mindful of the headwinds that have emerged in China’s economy,” said the report. And even still, many regional banks have struggled to prevent deposit outflows.
Persons: , Jason Pride, Michael Reynolds, Lisa Shalett, Edward Moya, Estee Lauder, Moya, , Elisabeth Buchwald, Moody’s, ‘ Barbie ’, “ Barbie ”, Jordan Valinsky, Greta Gerwig, “ Oppenheimer, “ Barbie Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, European, Apple, Intel, Ford, Starbucks, Nike, Saudi, Comerica Inc, National Bancorp, UMB Financial Corp, Bank of New York Mellon, State, Northern Trust, & $ Locations: New York, China, Europe, Beijing, Asia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Silicon
Now Chinese automakers' next move is to capitalize on exports, a recent Morgan Stanley note said. But some of that car-buying demand in China starting to wane, according to an August 17 note from Morgan Stanley. "We're still growing our market share in China," Tesla SVP of automotive Tom Zhu said at the firm's Investor Day in March. But while early cuts might have sparked demand, Morgan Stanley analysts called "Tesla's further promotional activity of particular concern." Chinese companies are forging ahead elsewhere while domestic demand easesThird, this just means that the Chinese companies will continue their push across the globe.
Persons: Tesla, Morgan Stanley, NEVs, Ford, Jim Farley, BEV, John Lawler, Tom Zhu Organizations: EV, Morning, Tesla, Ford, GM, Automobility, Deutsche Bank, KPMG — Locations: China, Europe
The week ahead will "revolve around three things," Infrastructure Capital Management CEO Jay Hatfield remarked on the week ahead. "Nvidia's earnings, Nvidia's earnings and, to a lesser degree, Jackson Hole." Nvidia earnings Many investors expect Nvidia will beat expectations for the second quarter when it reports results next Wednesday . More commentary from Jackson Hole If Nvidia is the key microeconomic event next week, Jackson Hole will dominate macroeconomic discussion. Powell delivers his address at the annual central bank forum hosted by the Kansas City Fed next Friday morning.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jay Hatfield, Jackson, Management's Yung, Yu Ma, Hans Mosesmann, Hatfield, Powell, Ross Mayfield, Ray Farris, Fed Governor Bowman, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, Infrastructure Capital Management, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Fitch, Federal Reserve, BMO, Nvidia, Rosenblatt Securities, Infrastructure Capital Management's, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Infrastructure Capital, Credit Suisse, Richmond Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, PMI, New, Body, Devices, Autodesk, Chicago, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Intuit, Ulta Locations: , Wyoming, China, Infrastructure Capital Management's Hatfield, Powell, . Kansas, Michigan
That has made it tricky to predict consumer spending. The swirl of confusing trends tees up a closely watched retail earnings season that could offer more clarity about consumers and the economy. As inflation cools, the growth of average hourly earnings has begun to outpace the rise in the consumer price index. He called low unemployment "the big offset that's helped consumer spending hang in." "I thought with all of the revenge travel that's been happening, that would impact consumer spending on goods," she said.
Persons: Aditya Bhave, that's, Andrew Garthwaite, That's, Levi Strauss, Chip Bergh, Michael Baker, Davidson, splurge, Baker, Taylor Swift, Davidson's Baker, Nikki Baird, she's, I'm, Corie Barry, headboards Organizations: Getty, Bank of America, Target, Walmart, JPMorgan, Wall, Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, U.S, of Labor Statistics, CNBC, . Bureau, Labor, D.A, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board Locations: Waterbury , Connecticut, U.S, Italy
Dollar gains, crosses key 145 yen level
  + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. In the 12 months through July, the PPI rose 0.8% after a 0.2% gain the prior month. Prior to the inflation data, that chance was already above 85%. The stronger dollar led the yen to briefly touch 145.03 in late afternoon trade, its highest since June 30. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, which prompted the Finance Ministry to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen.
Persons: Florence Lo, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Everyone's, Marvin Loh, Loh, Moh Siong Sim, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Kirsten Donovan, William Maclean, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal, PPI, Labor Department, Treasury, Singapore, Finance Ministry, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Macquarie, New York, Boston, Japan, London, Singapore
The reading was also much lower than 679 billion yuan in July 2022. "China’s bank loan growth fell to its lowest in seven months in July, while broad credit growth dropped to a record low," Capital Economics said in a note to clients. Hobbled by weak demand at home and abroad, China's economic momentum has faltered in recent months despite strong bank lending in the first half. Outstanding yuan loans expanded by 11.1% in July from the year before, the lowest so far this year, compared with 11.3% growth the previous month. In July, TSF slumped to 528.2 billion yuan from 4.22 trillion yuan in June.
Persons: Florence Lo, Luo Yunfeng, TSF, Qiaoyi Li, Kevin Yao, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, People's Bank of China, Reuters, Huajin Securities, Analysts, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, Central, TSF
The central bank district's Inflation Nowcast model points to a 0.4% rise that would equate to a 3.4% annual rate. "Rent could be an important source of a positive (moderating) surprise in July's CPI," Yardeni wrote. 'Sticky' inflation persists But inflation has proven more persistent than most policymakers, particularly those at the Fed, would have thought. In fact, the Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI is still at 5.8% on a 12-month basis — though 2.9% at an annualized pace — after peaking at 6.7% earlier this year. Moreover, Thursday's core CPI reading is expected to show core inflation running at a 4.7% annual level, just a tad below the June reading.
Persons: Dow Jones, it's, Ed Yardeni, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Morgan, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Hollenhorst, Solita Marcelli Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CPI, Cleveland Fed, UBS Locations: U.S, Atlanta
REUTERS/Mike Segar/File PhotoLONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices continued to climb as Saudi Arabia’s decision to extend its unilateral production cuts and signs of decelerating inflation and a soft landing in the United States improved sentiment among investors. The total position climbed to 563 million barrels (46th percentile for all weeks since 2013) on Aug. 1, up from just 282 million barrels (5th percentile) on June 27. The most recent week saw a significant number of new bullish long positions initiated (+37 million barrels) as well as former bearish shorts closed out (-14 million). If implemented in full, extra cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia would remove a further 115 million barrels from the market between July and September. In the most recent week, funds were buyers of European gas oil (+20 million barrels), Brent (+19 million), U.S. gasoline (+6 million), U.S. diesel (+4 million) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (+3 million).
Persons: Mike Segar, Brent, John Kemp, Mark Potter Organizations: Bayway, REUTERS, ICE Futures, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Petroleum, Traders, U.S ., ICE, U.S . diesel, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Phillips, Linden , New Jersey, U.S, Saudi, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine
Mortgage rates are down slightly today, but 30-year mortgage rates are still up around 45 basis points from where they started the week. When the data shows that the economy is still running hot, mortgage rates tend to go up. This latest report is good news for mortgage rates, because it means the labor market is continuing to soften. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.
Persons: Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Zillow, Fed, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron
"If you look at wage inflation, it was faster for the month than for the quarter, faster for the quarter than for the year." The latest labor market numbers, in Summers' view, aren't fully in line with the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal. "If you look at wage inflation, it was faster for the month than for the quarter, faster for the quarter than for the year," Summers said. "We still have a tight labor market, a very tight labor market," Summers said. "And with 187,000 jobs created, and population growing 50 to 100,000 a month, we have not just a tight labor market, but a tightening labor market."
Persons: Larry Summers, Summers, aren't Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon
[1/3] Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday, slightly below expectations of 200,000 jobs. U.S. Treasury yields dropped after jobs data on Friday showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, but investors hesitated to rule out further monetary tightening. Oil prices headed for a sixth straight weekly gain, driven by the prospect of reduced supply from Saudi Arabia and Russia. U.S. crude rose 1.4% to $82.69 per barrel and Brent was at $86.10, up 1.13% on the day.
Persons: Mike Segar, Rick Rieder, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Frederick, Sterling, Fitch, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Amanda Cooper, Elizabeth Howcroft, Ankur Banerjee, Sruthi Shankar, Sharon Singleton, Nick Macfie, Diane Craft Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, Treasury, U.S ., Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, FTSE, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Austin , Texas, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Boston, London
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles
A more encompassing unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell to 6.7%, down 0.2 percentage point from June. The survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a more robust gain of 268,000. The unemployment rate for Blacks moved lower to 5.8% while the rate for adult women nudged higher to 2.7%. A 3.5% unemployment rate, you can't complain about that," said Satyam Panday, U.S. chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. This is a "really, really solid labor market," said Jonathan Stokoe, senior vice president at job placement firm Adecco.
Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stocks, Satyam Panday, Jonathan Stokoe, Rick Rieder, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Blacks, Gross, Atlanta, Group, Fed, Bank of America Locations: U.S, BlackRock
There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June, little changed from May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.610 million job openings. Reuters GraphicsThere were an additional 136,000 job openings in healthcare and social assistance, while vacancies increased by 62,000 in state and local government, excluding education. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.8% in June. ISM manufacturing PMIIt has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Employers, Treasury, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Economists, ISM, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, . U.S
It was the ninth straight month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, the longest such stretch since the 2007-2009 Great Recession. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to 47.3 in July. According to the ISM, the delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing firms has been faster for 10 straight months. It has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count. Manufacturing employment likely rose by 5,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists.
Persons: Charles Mostoller, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: BMW, REUTERS, Reuters Connect WASHINGTON, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Reuters, ISM, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing, Fed, U.S . Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Greer , South Carolina, U.S
If the Fed stops hiking rates this year, mortgage rates could fall a bit. As the economy slows throughout this year and next, the central bank may even consider cutting rates, which would allow mortgage rates to drop even further. According to its latest forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association expects 30-year mortgage rates to fall to 5.9% by the end of this year. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.
Persons: Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, they'll Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Mortgage, Association, Zillow, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron
Inflation has begun to cool meaningfully, but unemployment remains historically low at 3.6 percent and hiring has been robust. Consumers continue to spend at a solid pace and are helping to boost overall growth, based on strong gross domestic product data released on Thursday. Mr. Powell said that while he was not yet ready to use the term “optimism,” he saw a possible pathway to a relatively painless slowdown. Those rate moves are trickling through the economy, making it more expensive to buy cars and houses on borrowed money and making it pricier for businesses to take out loans. “The prevailing consensus right before things went downhill in 2007, 2000 and 1990 was for a soft landing,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, , Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: TD Securities, Locations: Washington
Summary China to step up policy adjustments amid tortuous recoveryPOLL-US crude, product inventories seen down last weekComing up: API data on U.S. crude stocks at 4:30 p.m. ETJuly 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher for the third straight session on Tuesday, as signs of tighter supplies and pledges by Chinese authorities to shore up the world's second-biggest economy lifted sentiment. Still, bearish data in the euro zone and U.S. underlined weakness across the global economy. Later on Tuesday, industry data on U.S. crude inventories is expected. Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to July 21.
Persons: Brent, Edward Moya, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Stephanie Kelly, Shri Navaratnam, Stephen Coates Organizations: U.S, West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum, Energy, OANDA, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China, Russia, OPEC, U.S
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 1.2% higher and on course to snap a six-day losing streak. China's property market remains a cause for concern among investors, with stocks and bonds in China's real estate industry sliding to around eight-month lows on Monday amid fears of a cash crunch at two of the country's biggest developers. China will adjust and optimise property policies in a timely manner, in response to "significant changes" in the supply and demand relationship in the property market, state news agency Xinhua said late on Monday. "We believe policymakers may remain cautious about financial risks, though they may provide further policy support to help stabilize the sector." The slowdown may be viewed positively at the Fed, which is keen to see activity cool to lower inflation.
Persons: HSI, Erin Xin, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, Hong, Saxo Markets, Xinhua, Greater China, HSBC, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Hong Kong, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Shanghai, China, Greater, United States
Oil prices edge higher on tighter supply, China hopes
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session, as signs of tighter supplies and pledges by Chinese authorities to shore up the world's second-biggest economy lifted sentiment. Brent futures gained 7 cents at $82.81 a barrel at 00:07 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 11 cents at $78.85. In China, the world's second-largest economy and second-biggest oil consumer, leaders pledged to step up policy support for the economy amid a tortuous post-Covid recovery, focusing on boosting domestic demand. Later on Tuesday, industry data on U.S. crude inventories is expected. Four analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories fell by about 2 million barrels in the week to July 21.
Persons: Brent, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde Organizations: U.S, West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters Locations: Russia, OPEC, China, U.S
Investors are awaiting Microsoft (MSFT.O), Google-owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) earnings this week, which will show whether their stocks justify sky-high valuations. The Nasdaq (.NDX) lagged other indexes as investors looked to non-tech stocks for bargains, lifting sectors from energy to banks. Helping the Dow (.DJI) notch its longest winning streak since February 2017, Chevron (CVX.N) gained almost 2% as the oil giant posted upbeat preliminary quarterly earnings over the weekend. Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors rose, led by a gain in energy stocks (.SPNY). The S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 58 new highs and 97 new lows.
Persons: Barbie, Randy Frederick, You've, Carol Schleif, Toymaker Mattel, AMC's, decliners, Carolina Mandl, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta, Anil D'Silva, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Mattel, Chevron, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Microsoft, Google, Investors, BMO Family Office, Reuters, AMC Entertainment, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York, Bengaluru
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