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☆ The S&P 500 could soar 16% in the next year as a 'buy' signal with strong track record close to flashing, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is close to flashing a "buy" signal with a strong track record, according to BofA. BofA's sell side indicator is three times closer to a "buy" reading than a "sell" reading. The indicator suggests 15.5% upside in the S&P 500 over the next year, analysts said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is close to flashing a "buy" signal that's almost always resulted in positive returns for the S&P 500 in the following 12 months, according to Bank of America. That's caused equities to look less attractive and ratcheted up fears of a coming recession, sparking a sell-off in stocks that drove the S&P 500 to its third-straight monthly loss.

Persons: —, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Wall, SSI, Bank of America's, Fed

☆ Bank of America’s investment strategist says the S&P 500 correction could last until it hits this level
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market could see further damage if one key index can't hold an important technical level, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. Looking at several key indexes, Hartnett said in a client note Thursday that selling pressure has persisted even in less tech-sensitive parts of the market, specifically citing the S & P 500 Equal-Weighted index. If that can't hold onto the 5,540 level — it closed Thursday at 5,501 — it could signal further pressure on the more widely followed S & P 500 market-cap weighted index. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD While still up 7.8% for 2023, the S & P 500 has tumbled about 14% from its all-time high. However, Harnett said he won't get bullish until the "3Ps" kick in: "bearish positioning combines with recessionary Profits to Policy easing."

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Harnett Organizations: Bank of America, Wall Locations: Thursday's

☆ Loop Capital's Rob Sanderson makes the contrarian case for Snap ahead of earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLoop Capital's Rob Sanderson makes the contrarian case for Snap ahead of earningsRob Sanderson, managing director at Loop Capital Markets, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the decline of Snap's ad revenue, skepticism about how Snap will perform going forward, and expectations for earnings from internet advertisers.

Persons: Rob Sanderson Organizations: Loop

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Loop Capital's Rob Sanderson on the contrarian case for Snap
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Loop Capital's Rob Sanderson on the contrarian case for SnapRob Sanderson, managing director at Loop Capital Markets, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the decline of Snap's ad revenue, skepticism about how Snap will perform going forward, and expectations for earnings from internet advertisers.

Persons: Rob Sanderson Organizations: Loop

☆ The stock market's volatility indicator is signaling a trough in the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market's volatility gauge is signaling a trough in the S&P 500. Futures for the CBOE Volatility Index indicated more uncertainty about the near term than longer term. Futures contracts tied to the volatility index, also known as the VIX, track the expected amount of market volatility down the line. It speaks to more anxiety about where the stock market is headed amid recession angst, the bond market rout, and mushrooming geopolitical risk. In September, the volatility index was trading at post-pandemic lows, signalling a strong bull market and fizzling recession fears.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Apollo Locations: Israel

The 40-year bond bull market - a slow-inflating bubble like any other to some people - has crashed. Bank of America chart on survey of global funds' bond positioningBond Multiverse Returns Flip Positive2008... OR 2000? Of course, bond bubbles and bursts - at least for top-rated sovereigns - are not same as their equity counterparts, even if the short-term performance of bond funds seems to ape them. But for bond funds praying for a shorter-term price performance pickup, the situation looks nervier. With such an ephemeral variable at work, picking a durable turn in the battered bond market may prove fiendishly difficult.

Persons: Jason Lee, That's, Fed's, Olivier Davanne, midyear, Davanne, Mike Dolan Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Bank of America's, Federal Reserve, of America, Bloomberg, Invest, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Paris

☆ A widely followed Wall Street survey shows investors turning bearish again, raising cash levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Professional investors are turning more bearish again amid the current macro backdrop, according to a closely watched Wall Street survey from Bank of America. The bank's Global Fund Manager survey showed investors have upped their cash levels and are maintaining a pessimistic outlook on growth and the economy. Specifically, strategist Michael Hartnett said the cash allocation among those surveyed increased to 5.3% from 4.9%, while staying neutral on stocks. "1 out of 4 [fund manager survey] investors expect that there will be no recession in the next 18 months," Hartnett said. A record number of respondents also indicated that monetary policy remains too tight, while fiscal policy is too easy.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, —, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Reserve

☆ A lower-risk way to bet on a comeback by this consumer blue chip using options
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As consumers continue to remain selective with their spending and cracks start to show within the consumer discretionary sector, one name that is worth paying attention to is McDonald's (MCD) . As a trader, one could look at McDonald's stock and see that the trends are bearish with negative momentum. MCD 3M mountain MCD 3 months But I prefer to view this from a contrarian perspective. (The chart above shows the Commodity Channel Index indicator in the lower panel, which looks at the current stock price vs. its historical average price and is used by technical analysts to determine a trend change.) BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Zhang

☆ 'Higher for longer' isn't just about rates: Here's how to play elevated everything
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Each "higher for longer" item carries investment implications. Here's a look at how each category breaks down: Interest rates "I do subscribe to the new moniker, 'higher for longer.' That statement came from someone who nevertheless thinks the central bank doesn't have to take rates any higher than where they are now. Defense spending Geopolitical tensions, such as the wars in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the "cold war in Asia," should lead to an increase in defense spending around the world. In 2022, global defense spending hit a record $2.2 trillion, Quinlan said, citing Stockholm International Peace Institute data.

Persons: Joseph Quinlan, Merrill Lynch, Quinlan, Patrick Harker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America Private Bank, Philadelphia Fed, Investors, Defense, Stockholm International Peace Institute Locations: Israel, U.S, Ukraine, Asia, Stockholm, Washington

☆ BofA: Investors sell stocks, buy bonds; shun emerging markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Investors sold stocks and bought bonds in the week to Wednesday, Bank of America Global Research said in a note on Friday, while investors continued to shun emerging market assets. Equities had a weekly outflow of $8.2 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR data, while investors favoured the relative safety of bonds, which had inflows of $3.7 billion. Inflows into Treasuries totalled $7.2 billion, the largest weekly inflow since March 2023, BofA said. Investors dumped emerging market debt and stocks in the latest week, with outflows from equities at $4.3 billion, their largest weekly outflow since May 2022, BofA said. The 10-year yield was last at 4.6248%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BofA, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, BofA's, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Jane Merriman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of America Global Research, Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

☆ Harvard shouldn't cave to CEOs' demand for names of students who signed a letter blaming Israel for Hamas attacks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

CEOs called on Harvard to release the names of students who signed a letter blaming Israel for Hamas attacks. Multiple Harvard students and groups have retracted their support for the letter, claiming they never saw the statement before it was published. On Wednesday, a truck drove around Harvard's campus with a digital billboard that claimed to show the names and faces of students associated with the letter. Just as Harvard students have the right to condemn Israel, so too does Ackman have the right to call on the university to release their names, Paulson said. AdvertisementAdvertisementA protest against the Vietnam War takes place in Harvard Yard on the Harvard University campus in Cambridge, MA on Feb. 11, 1966.

Persons: Israel, —, Alex Morey, Bill Ackman, hasn't, Claudine Gay, Ken Paulson, it's, Paulson, Winston, Strawn, Morey, Charles Dixon, there's Organizations: Harvard, Service, Foundation, Rights, Harvard Palestine Solidarity Groups, Harvard Palestine Solidarity Committee, Harvard University, Scott Eisen Universities, Free, Center, Middle Tennessee State University, Business, Palestine, New York University Student Bar Association, New York Times, NYU, Boston Globe, Getty Images Colleges Locations: Israel, Harvard Palestine, Harvard's, Harvard, Philadelphia, Vietnam, Cambridge, Ukraine, Palestine

☆ Why Harvard shouldn't cave to CEOs and share the names of students who signed a letter blaming Israel for Hamas attacks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Erin Snodgrass | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

A stacker unloads iron ore onto a pile at a mine located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia December 2, 2013. China iron ore imports vs SGX priceIMPORTS SLIPThere are also signs that China's iron ore imports may soften in October, although that is most likely related to the week-long holidays at the start of the month. The last official reading on iron ore imports was August's customs figure of 106.42 million metric tons, which was the highest monthly total since October 2020. A further possible concern for iron ore imports is what policy China will adopt regarding steel production for the coming winter period. One possible bullish factor for iron ore is the continuing retreat of China's port inventories, which suggests scope to import more to boost stockpiles.

Persons: David Gray, doesn't, SteelHome, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, China, HK, Garden, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Pilbara, Western Australia, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Beijing, Singapore, China's, China

☆ A veteran strategy chief says investor pessimism is fueling a contrarian market rally, and these 4 investments will be the biggest winners
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Soaring interest rates and a slowing economy sent US stocks plummeting to their 52-week lows last October. Twelve months later, the S&P 500 has been smacked once again by lingering concerns about interest rates and a recession. The index just hit an oversold level not seen since last fall, Truist co-investment chief Keith Lerner remarked in a recent note. Instead, investors should stay focused on interest rates, Lerner said. 4 top places to put your money nowTruist is bullish on both growth stocks and stocks in economically sensitive sectors.

Persons: Truist, Keith Lerner, Goldman Sachs, Lerner, offsides, doesn't, Israel aren't, they're Organizations: Truist, Investors, Bank of America, Federal, Energy Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Israel

☆ Capitalize on once-in-a-generation opportunities in the bond market by making these 5 moves now, according to 6 leading fixed income strategists
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Yahoo FinanceHowever, six leading fixed income investors are confident that the pain won't last much longer. Michele continued: "I've been doing this since 1981, so I've seen a decade of double-digit bond yields with disinflation. Alex Petrone, the director of fixed income at Rockefeller Asset Management, agreed that it's too soon to write off a recession. Nailing timing helps maximize returns, though fixed income experts said that's difficult because the Fed's policy decisions are unpredictable. Buying Treasuries and municipal coupons on both the long and short ends of the curve are how she recommends playing fixed income.

Persons: Jonathan Mondillo, you've, Bob Michele, Michele, I've, we'll, Federal Reserve —, Robert Robis, Robis, Alex Petrone, it's, Petrone, Mary Daly, David Schiffman, Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Aliaga, Mondillo, Schiffman Organizations: Yahoo Finance, JPMorgan Asset Management, isn't, Federal Reserve, BCA Research, Rockefeller Asset Management, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Aquila Investment Management, Vanguard's Investment, Investment Locations: Scotland, bottoming, Abrdn, Aquila, Treasuries, CCC

☆ History says there's a 95% chance that US stocks rise from here despite recession calls, and Bank of America shared 4 investments to make as the market recovers from its September slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

However, higher-for-longer rates don't always crush valuations and earnings, Bank of America strategists recently noted. In fact, the firm found that the S&P 500 had a 15% total return per year from 1985 to 2005 with inflation-adjusted rates at 3.5%, which is far above today's 2% rate. "Historically, when the indicator has been here or lower, 12m forward S&P 500 returns were positive 95% of the time (vs. 81% overall) with a median return of 21%," Subramanian wrote. The Charlotte-based firm recently raised its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,600, which implies 7.5% upside. The S&P 500 is top-heavy and expensive, which Bank of America thinks makes funds following the equal-weight version of the index more compelling.

Persons: That's, Savita Subramanian, BofA's, Subramanian, Financials Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, of America, SSI, Bank of, Energy Locations: Charlotte

☆ Premarket stocks trading: ESG has lost its meaning. One advocate says let's throw it in the trash
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Dedicated ESG funds have also lost popularity with investors. Total assets under management in ESG funds fell by about $163.2 billion globally during the first quarter of 2023 from the year before, according to data provider Lipper. According to the latest Fed projections, officials forecast just one more interest rate hike this year — and rate cuts next year. When members of his board ask him whether interest rates could really go that high, his answer is always “yes,” he told Bloomberg. There are a lot of “potential bad outcomes,” Dimon said, but the worst-case economic scenario would be stagflation, with low growth and high interest rates.

Persons: “ ESG, ESG, What’s, Lipper, Lynn Forester de Rothschild, ESG “, ”, Rothschild, King Charles II, Bill Clinton, Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby, ’, Stephen Hall, Philip Morris, “, Robert Jenkins, Jenkins, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, It’s, ” Dimon, “ you’re, Satya Nadella, Brian Fung, Nadella, ” Nadella, else’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fox News, Republican, Biden, Council, Inclusive Capitalism, “ Investment, Better, CNN, Jamie Dimon JPMorgan, Federal, Bloomberg, Times, Microsoft, Google Locations: New York, Times of India, United States

☆ Hong Kong stocks have worst day in three months on worries about rates and real estate
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Hong Kong CNN —Stocks in Hong Kong suffered their worst day in three months on Tuesday on growing concern about China’s weak housing market and persistently high US interest rates. Real estate stocks were once again among the heaviest losers in Hong Kong. Country Garden, one of the country’s largest property developers, sank 4.4%. Market sentiment was also weighed down by concerns that US interest rates could stay elevated after US Treasury yields hit a 16-year high. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury, which are considered a proxy for US interest rates, reached 4.7% on Monday, the highest since 2007.

Persons: Xu Jiayin, Nomura, “, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ”, Stephen Innes Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Energy Vehicle, Evergrande, Estate Information Corporation, Treasury, JPMorgan, Reserve, Federal, Nikkei Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, Washington, Real, Shanghai, China, Asia

☆ Strong earnings will reverse decline in megacap tech stocks: Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Strong upcoming earnings results could reverse the decline in mega-cap technology and growth stocks, which have been hammered by the rise in Treasury yields and are trading at their cheapest levels in six years by one measure, according to Goldman Sachs strategists. At the same time, the group is expected to post sales growth of 11% in the third quarter, compared with a 1% improvement for the S&P 500, the firm noted. The S&P 500 has dropped nearly 5% over the last 10 trading days but remains slightly more than 11% up since the start of the year. "We expect the S&P 500 to rally into year-end, with more upside in the equal-weighted index," Subramanian wrote.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, BofA Global Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Be prepared for 7% interest rates, warns Jamie Dimon
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Most analysts say the central bank will raise interest rates just one more time, in November, by 0.25 percentage points from its current range of 5.25%-5.50%. However, Dimon told Bloomberg TV it’s possible the central bank will continue hiking rates by another 1.5 percentage points, to 7%. According to the latest Fed projections, officials forecast just one more interest rate hike this year — and rate cuts next year. Still, Dimon, who leads the largest bank in the United States, says Americans need to be prepared for interest rates to surge. There are a lot of “potential bad outcomes,” Dimon said, but the worst-case economic scenario would be stagflation, with low growth and high interest rates.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, It’s, ”, ” Dimon, “ you’re, “ They’re, “ Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan, Federal, Bloomberg, Times Locations: New York, Times of India, United States, Ukraine, China

☆ Veteran investor David Roche has a contrarian call on grain prices, says prices will soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Grain prices have been in freefall of late as investors bet on a resurgence of supply from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine — but veteran strategist David Roche disagrees. Contrary to market consensus, Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, expects a 13-15% annual increase in wheat prices over the next two years. His comments come as wheat prices remain down around 29% year-to-date and at their lowest levels since September 2020, with short positions — bets that prices will fall — recently hitting a three-month high, according to a report from Independent Strategy. Corn prices are also trading around three-year lows while soybeans recently notched a four-year low. Meanwhile Russia, the world's largest grain exporter, has also produced large harvests which analysts expect to get through export blockades.

Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, we've Organizations: Independent, El Nino, U.S . Department of Agriculture Locations: Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, U.S, Russia, Mississippi

☆ Forget the Sunbelt. These 8 slides show why multi-family-home investors should be turning their attention north to these five cities.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

At least that's the view of Matt Frazier, CEO and cofounder of Jones Street Investment Partners, a multifamily investor with roughly $2 billion in assets under management. Of course, Jones Street's entire portfolio is focused on the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic multi-family homes. It's a contrarian view in an industry obsessed with the Sunbelt since Jones Street was founded in 2014. According to Jones Street's analysis, "this dynamic is specific to Southeast and Sunbelt markets," not the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Matt Frazier, CEO of Jones Street.

Persons: Matt Frazier, Frazier, Jones, he's, maturities Organizations: Jones Street Investment Partners, Jones Locations: Austin , Texas, Nashville , Tennessee, New England, Portland , Maine, Richmond , Virginia, Midatlantic, Manchester , New Hampshire, Boston , Massachusetts, Philadelphia , Pennsylvania

☆ Buy these 5 high-upside stocks now before they pop, according to a 15-year investing veteran — including one that could soar over 50% by Halloween
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Like other technical analysts, Salama sees wisdom in mirroring the crowd, but trend-following indicators can also provide crucial contrarian buy or sell signals. Stocks have downward momentum, and the SPY just fell through the 434 level, which Salama said was key technical support. The value of the SPY is roughly one-tenth that of the S&P 500, so that corresponds to a break below 4,344 for the index. The SPY, a popular ETF mirroring the S&P 500, is oversold, according to the RSI (in blue). 5 high-upside stocks to buy nowAfter outlining his market outlook, Salama shared five stocks he's bullish on right now and gave a price target for each.

Persons: John Salama, he's, Salama, it's, they've, he'd, David Keller, Salama doesn't Organizations: Maverick, RSI, Trust, Wall Street, Bloomberg

☆ 'We've reached a new level of narcissism': Long-time bear David Rosenberg explains why a recession is still coming — and names 7 investments that can save investors from the pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Rosenberg continued: "But it's a false debate because the choice isn't between a soft landing and a recession. Consumers are the lifeblood of the US economy, and if they're forced to cut back on spending, Rosenberg thinks growth would quickly turn negative. Investors nervous about the economy should target stocks in four defensive parts of the market, Rosenberg said: consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities. "As growth is scarce, you want to own what's scarce, so you want to own growth stocks," Rosenberg said. "I'm probably much more bullish on growth than I am on value because value is very cyclical, and growth stocks tend to be valued on a longer-term earnings profile."

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, we've, Rosenberg isn't, hasn't, nonfarm payrolls, that's, Uncle Sam, " Rosenberg, they're, couldn't, he's, he'd Organizations: Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Technology, Fed Locations: YOLO

The VanEck Office and Commercial REIT ETF fell 4.8% on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve stiffened its hawkish monetary policy stance, slamming the real estate sector and the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that invest in them. Real estate stocks have struggled this year as the Fed's rapid rate hikes make financing properties more expensive, curbing demand. ETFs tracking broader REITs such as Schwab US REIT and Vanguard Real Estate Index have fallen 4.4% and 5%, respectively, so far this week, while the S&P 500 real estate index (.5SP60) is on track to post weekly losses of 4.7%. "For the discerning investor, the current situation might just be the contrarian opportunity they've been waiting for," said VanEck in its blog about the ETF. Office REITs like Boston Properties (BXP.N) and Kilroy Realty (KRC.N) are down 10% and 15%, respectively, so far this year.

Persons: Schwab, they've, they're, Aniket, Bansari Mayur, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Real, Investment, Schwab US, Vanguard, Boston, Kilroy Realty, CFRA, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

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