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☆ Morning Bid: Range-bound markets awaits Powell - again
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. At a separate event on Wednesday, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said his bank needs to see further progress in dampening inflationary pressure, and companies along with governments need to chip in to prevent more policy tightening. "A decrease in the policy rate is not something that is likely to happen in the short term," he said. The approval paves the way for a powerful rival to blockbuster drug Wegovy in addressing record obesity rates. Ping An subsequently said in a statement to Reuters it had "not been asked by (the) Government to take over Country Garden".

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Powell, Philip Lane, Patrick Harker, Huw Pill, Eli Lilly's, Ping, Merck KGaA, BOE, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Ankur, U.S, European Central Bank, . Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Bank of England, Investors, Novo Nordisk, Reuters, Ping An Insurance, Government, HK, AstraZeneca, Merck, Deutsche Telekom Speakers, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Asia, Guangdong, Ping, Singapore

☆ EU watchdog cautions against one-size-fits-all rules for non-banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Regulators should keep on open mind when writing rules for the world's $239 trillion "non-bank" financial sector to avoid one-size fits all approaches, the EU's top securities watchdog said. Non-banks, a sector which includes hedge funds, real estate funds, insurers and private investments and now account for about half of the world's financial sector, are firmly in the regulatory limelight. This follows redemption-related stresses among money market funds (MMFs) during a "dash for cash" when economies went into pandemic lockdowns in March 2020, and last year with liability-driven investment (LDI) funds in Britain. European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) chair Verena Ross said regulators are closely examining non-banks' leverage, liquidity and their connectivity with banks. Meanwhile, the BoE has called for tougher liquidity rules for MMFs, but sterling-denominated funds are listed in European Union countries such as Ireland and Luxembourg, where the rules are written by the 27-member bloc.

Persons: Verena Ross, Ross, MMFs, BoE, ESMA, Huw Jones, Alexander Smith Organizations: European Securities and Markets Authority, Reuters, U.S . Federal, The Bank of England, U.S, Financial, Union, European Commission, Thomson Locations: Britain, Ireland, Luxembourg

☆ Closed-end funds can generate income – and they’re cheap. Here’s how they might fit in your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Closed-end funds offer a fixed number of shares, but they also trade publicly on exchanges. Right now, a confluence of events is resulting in some sharp discounts for closed-end funds, especially for those that hold bonds. Investors in closed-end funds have shed some of those holdings and that's resulting in sharper discounts to net asset value. Closed-end fund plays Financial advisors have called out closed-end funds holding municipal bonds as a way to add duration on the cheap. Closed-end funds offer other ways to pick up income: Paul Winter, CFP and portfolio manager at Five Seasons Financial Planning, likes funds that use buy-write strategies.

Persons: Dave Lamb, Lamb, Jeffrey Gundlach, Robert Finley, Paul Winter, BOE, Nuveen's Lamb Organizations: Treasury, Western Asset, Muni Fund, Asset Management, Five, Virtus, Strategy, BlackRock Locations: New York, York

☆ ‘The Buccaneers’ Review: Edith Wharton’s Expats on Apple TV+
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( John Anderson | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Kristine Frøseth, Alisha Boe, Josie Totah, Aubri Ibrag and Imogen Waterhouse Photo: Apple TV+If “The Buccaneers” is what it takes to keep Edith Wharton in circulation among a new generation of readers, it may be worth the price. On the downside, people will think “The Buccaneers” has something to do with Edith Wharton. The Buccaneers Wednesday, Apple TV+Wharton—chronicler of robber-baron America, genius of the social critique, stylist extraordinaire—had left four-fifths of “The Buccaneers” behind when she died in 1937. It was published in 1938, unfinished; Marion Mainwaring’s “completed” version appeared in 1993, to a predictable mix of bouquets and outrage. The version materializing on Apple TV+ is the interpretation of series creator Katherine Jakeways (the director is Susanna White ) and will have hardcore Wharton-ites squealing louder than the bevy of batty beauties exported from New York for the London Season in order to find themselves titled English husbands who need American money.

Persons: Kristine Frøseth, Alisha Boe, Josie Totah, Aubri Ibrag, Imogen Waterhouse, Edith Wharton, Wharton, America, extraordinaire —, Marion Mainwaring’s “, Katherine Jakeways, Susanna White Organizations: Apple, Buccaneers, Wharton, London Locations: batty, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Oil-fueled rally turns to Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. And that's hit home by dragging U.S. pump prices down to levels not seen since March. Overall, U.S. 10-year yields remained on the back foot at 4.57% first thing and ahead of Wednesday's auction. Although Asian and European stocks fell back a bit, Wall St stock futures were unchanged before the bell. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Mike Dolan, who's, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, BoE, Ping, Donald Trump, White, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Joachim Nagel, Walt Disney, Ralph Lauren, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Wall, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Atlanta, Fed, Chicago Fed, St, Reuters, Ping An Insurance, HK, New York Fed, Warner Bros Discovery, MGM Resorts, Biogen, Energy, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Gaza, Tokyo, Ohio, Kentucky, Brussels, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Bank of England central counterparty stress tests confirm resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The Bank of England is seen in the City of London, Britain, February 14, 2017. REUTERS/Hannah McKay Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Wednesday said results of stress tests on central counterparties (CCPs) showed continued resilience at the businesses, which help clear and settle trades in financial instruments and commodities essential for the global economy. "The results confirm the continued resilience of UK CCPs to market stress scenarios that are of equal and greater severity than the worst-ever historical market stresses," said Sarah Breeden, the BoE's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability. The stress tests covered three central counterparties which operate in Britain, ICE Clear Europe Limited (ICE.N), LCH Limited, a part of LSEG (LSEG.L), and LME Clear Limited, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (0388.HK). The BoE said it would use the findings "to support and inform its ongoing supervision and regulation of UK CCPs".

Persons: Hannah McKay, Sarah Breeden, BoE, William James, David Milliken, Sarah Young Organizations: of, City of, REUTERS, Bank of England, Financial Stability, ICE Clear Europe, LCH, LME Clear, Hong Kong Exchanges, Clearing, HK, LME, Thomson Locations: of England, City, City of London, Britain, LSEG, LME Base

☆ ‘The Buccaneers’ review: Edith Wharton’s last novel becomes a ‘Bridgerton’ wannabe
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Brian Lowry | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Although “The Buccaneers” comes with the literary pedigree of being based on Edith Wharton’s last, unfinished novel, the series so desperately wants to emulate “Bridgerton” that it almost makes your teeth ache, down to the mix of corsets and contemporary music. The result is a mildly watchable Apple TV+ series that proves, to quote Fred Allen, imitation is the sincerest form of streaming, too. Even so, everything feels a little too familiar, including the series’ hissable villain, hidden beneath a polished and presentable veneer. Consumed entirely on its terms, “The Buccaneers” works reasonably well as a soapy distraction for those willing to check their brains at the ballroom door. “The Buccaneers” premieres November 8 on Apple TV+.

Persons: Edith Wharton’s, Fred Allen, Conchita, Alisha Boe, ’ brashness, Nan St, George, Kristine Frøseth, Jinny, Imogen Waterhouse, Nan, Guy Remmers, Matthew Broome, Men’s ” Christina Hendricks, Christina Hendricks, Angus Pigott “ Organizations: Buccaneers, Apple Locations: Europe, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Waiting for word from the Fed chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. Last week's surprisingly soft jobs data heightened expectations that interest rates had peaked, but Fed commentary since then has warned against complacency in the fight against inflation. For now, investors have dialled up wagers on near-term rate cuts, with the Fed funds rate showing better than 50/50 odds for one as early as May. In Asia time, long-term Treasury yields are stuck around 4.58% and the dollar is biding its time around $1.07 per euro. While the Fed outlook dominates investors' attention, there is plenty of central bank speak in store from Europe as well.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Kevin Buckland, Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Joachim Nagel, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Andrew Bailey, Fed's Powell, Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Kevin, Kevin Buckland Markets, Reuters Graphics, Bank of Spain, Bank of England, Adidas, Airbus, Bayer, Continental, Credit Agricole, Federal Reserve Division of Research, Statistics, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Asia, Europe, Germany, Brussels, Irish

☆ UK house prices end six-month losing streak - Halifax
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Compared with a year earlier, house prices in October were 3.2% lower versus a 4.5% annual decline in September, leaving the average house price at 281,974 pounds ($347,279), nearly 10,000 pounds lower than a year earlier. British house prices surged during the COVID-19 pandemic due to low interest rates, greater demand and temporary tax breaks. Halifax's house price index is still 18% higher than it was in February 2020, despite a 4% fall since its peak in June 2022. Halifax said it expected house prices to fall further this year, with a return to growth in 2025. "The high cost of borrowing alone is not sufficient to trigger the leg down in house prices we predicted," Capital economist Andrew Wishart said.

Persons: Toby Melville, Kim Kinnaird, Huw Pill, BoE, Kinnaird, Andrew Wishart, David Milliken, Sarah Young, Kate Holton, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, Halifax, Lloyds Banking Group, The Bank of England, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Bristol, Britain, Halifax, British

The U.S. central bank could even be forced to raise rates to ensure the pace of inflation remains on a downward trajectory and does not bounce back, Goldberg said. Markets also imply about an 80% probability the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates by April, while the Bank of England (BoE) is seen easing in August. An outlier is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume raising rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation there stays stubbornly high. The head of the central bank said on Monday it was closer to achieving its inflation target, but it was still not enough to end ultra-loose policy. The drop in the dollar and yields has helped underpin gold, as investors have cautiously turned back to riskier assets.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Anthony Saglimbene, Saglimbene, We're, BoE, Jerome Powell, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Germany's, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, New York, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Troy , Michigan, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia

Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.

Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza

☆ Morning Bid: Rate cut prospects fuel stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nov 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been an upbeat start to the week in Asia as markets cast aside concerns about rate hikes, and go straight to pricing in early cuts. Futures imply an 80% probability the ECB will begin easing as soon as April, and the first BoE rate cut is almost fully priced for August. An outlier here is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which might well resume hiking on Tuesday after four months of steady policy outcomes. But expectations were already so low that it's the dollar that has all the downside in the disappointment stakes.

Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, BoE, Ueda, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Huw Pill, Lisa Cook, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, ECB, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Atlanta, EU, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Asia, South Korea, Europe

☆ Asia shares extend rally on hopes of early rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"This year's better-than-expected U.S. supply-side performance raises hopes for a soft landing," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Futures markets swung to imply a 90% chance the Fed was done hiking, and an 86% chance the first policy easing would come as soon as June. Markets also imply around an 80% probability the European Central Bank will be cutting rates by April, while the Bank of England is seen easing in August. An odd man out is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume hiking rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation stays stubbornly high. "We look for the Fed Funds rate to fall to 3-3.25%, the ECB depo rate to 3% and BoE Bank Rate to 4.25% by end-2024."

Persons: Issei Kato, Bruce Kasman, disinflation, Jerome Powell, BoE, Brent, Wayne Cole, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Futures, European Central Bank, Bank of, ECB, The Bank of Japan, South, Nasdaq, Fed, NatWest Markets, Sunday, Palestinian, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, United States, Europe, U.S, Bank of England, Asia, Pacific, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza

☆ Don't confuse customers over stablecoins, Bank of England warns lenders
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A pedestrian walks past the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, September 25, 2023. REUTERS/Hollie Adams/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies Bank of England FollowLONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of England told lenders on Monday that they must avoid any risk that customers might confuse new forms of e-money like 'stablecoins' with standard deposits which are guaranteed against bank failures. Stablecoins are a cryptocurrency backed by a traditional currency such as sterling or the U.S. dollar, or an asset. To the extent that systemic payment systems using stablecoins pose similar risks as other systemic payment systems, they should be subject to equivalent regulatory standards, the BoE said. There are no systemic sterling stablecoins, but Tether, issuer of the world's largest stablecoin, pegged to the U.S. dollar and backed by assets including U.S. government debt, said last year it would launch a sterling stablecoin.

Persons: Hollie Adams, BoE, stablecoins, Sheldon Mills, David Milliken, Tom Wilson, Kylie MacLellan, Kirsten Donovan, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Companies Bank of England, U.S ., Financial, European, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain

☆ Global stocks jump and dollar slumps after weak U.S. jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar tumbled after the data, which showed that the U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 150,000 in October, lower than the 180,000 predicted and September's downwardly revised 297,000 figure. MSCI's index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) was last up 0.45%, having traded roughly 0.26% higher before the data. It was on track to finish the week 4.5% higher, which would be the largest weekly rise since November 2022. It traded 0.29% lower at 105.89 before the data. Reuters Graphics"Investors will interpret today’s jobs weak jobs report as a sign that demand is slowing in the labour market," said Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, in emailed comments.

Persons: Androniki, nonfarm, September's downwardly, Richard Flynn, Charles Schwab, BoE, Samuel Zief, Brent, Harry Robertson, Jacqueline Wong, Miral Fahmy, Mark Heinrich, Alison Williams Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Companies, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, JPMorgan Private Bank, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Israel

[1/2] Dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2017. The euro was last up 0.27% at $1.06515, and thanks to gains earlier in the week was heading for a weekly gain of 0.8%, which would be its most since July. Sterling likewise was up 0.2% on the day at $1.2228, and set for a 0.86% weekly gain, also its most since July. Both the Aussie and the New Zealand dollars are up 1.7% for the week, their best weekly performance since again mid-July. The dollar is heading for a weekly gain of 0.25% on the franc and was last at 0.9041 francs.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Sterling, Jerome Powell, We've, BOE, Yusuke Miyairi, Detroit's, Kazuo Ueda, Ankur Banerjee, Rae Wee, Gerry Doyle, Kim Coghill, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Treasury Department, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Nomura, Analysts, United Auto Workers, UAW, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters, New, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, LONDON, U.S, New Zealand, Singapore

☆ UK services businesses 'skirt with recession' in Oct-PMI survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The composite PMI - which includes weak data from the smaller manufacturing sector released on Tuesday - rose to 48.7 from 48.5 in September. "Forward-looking survey indicators suggested that service providers will continue to skirt with recession," Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global, said. "A shallow downturn in UK service sector activity persisted in October as businesses struggled to make headway against a backdrop of worsening domestic economic conditions and stretched household budgets." The services PMI showed the weakest rise in businesses' input costs since February 2021, as falling raw material costs and discounting by suppliers offset continued upward pressure from rising wage bills and fuel costs. Prices charged by services companies rose by the most in three months, although the increases were smaller than in the first half of the year.

Persons: Hannah McKay, Tim Moore, BoE, David Milliken, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, P, PMI, P Global, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, September's, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks clocking best week of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The U.S. October employment report out later on Friday caps a hectic two weeks of central bank decisions, company updates and unnerving geopolitics. As the first major marker of U.S. economic strength in the final quarter of the year, the payrolls report packs a punch despite expected strike-related distortions. The interest rate relief this week is pervasive, however, as the Fed, ECB and BoE all paused tightening and U.S. Treasury debt sales worries ebbed somewhat. U.S. Treasury (.MOVE) and equity market (.BIX) volatility gauges have subsided to their lowest levels since early last month.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, BoE, ebbed, Antony Blinken, Sam Bankman, Fried, Michael Barr, Neel Kashkari, Huw Pill, Emelia Sithole Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Apple, Fed, ECB, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Labor Department, Eversource Energy, Cardinal Health, Dominion Energy, Gartner, Church, Dwight, AMC, Liberty Media, Icahn Enterprises, Federal, Bank of England, Israel Productivity, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Isreal, Gaza, Gaza City, Canada, Minneapolis, Israel

A general view of the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain, September 25, 2023. In making that call the BoE report focuses mostly on consumption, which it estimates makes up about 60% of GDP. As a result, the BoE expects the fallout from rate moves to date to "grow over time" even if one-off quarterly hits have peaked. And whatever the slow-burning hit to growth and consumption, inflation surprises could well change the increasingly comfortable markets picture. BOE chart on GDP outlookBOE chart on consumption hit from rate risesReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan X: @reutersMikeD; editing by David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Hollie Adams, Huw Pill, what's, BoE, Modupe Adegbembo, Andy Burgess, BOE, Mike Dolan, David Evans Organizations: Bank of England, City of, REUTERS, Bank, Reuters, AXA Investment Managers, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, British

☆ Europe stocks open higher, head for best week since March after central bank pauses
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Stoxx 600 opened 0.3% higher led by autos stocks, up 1.1%. The index gained 1.6% on Thursday, and is heading for its best week-on-week performance since the end of March, according to LSEG data. European stock markets opened higher on Friday, rounding off a weekly rally powered by a series of solid earnings and a perceived dovish tilt by central banks. The Bank of England held rates for a second consecutive meeting. Like Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank — which last week also held rates steady — he said it was too early to talk about rate cuts and that risks to inflation remain.

Persons: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of, CNBC, European Central Bank Locations: U.S, Bank of England

☆ Analysis: Traders bet ECB will be first big central bank to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. With investors confident that big central banks are likely done raising rates, focus has switched to when rate cuts will start. Traders now price in over an 80% chance of a 25 basis-points (bps) ECB cut by April, which had been fully priced for July last week. Piet Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, said the expectations for ECB rate cuts now reflected a "doom and gloom" scenario. He added the ECB would need to cut rates at least as much as traders expect next year.

Persons: Heiko Becker, BoE, Shamik Dhar, Christine Lagarde, Piet Christiansen, Lagarde, Goldman, Gurpreet Gill, Dario Perkins, Yoruk, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Emelia Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Traders, ECB, Fed, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, BNY Mellon Investment, Treasury, Reuters, Danske Bank, Asset Management, Lombard, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, U.S, Britain, Israel

☆ Take Five: You (may) have arrived at your destination
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

No wonder markets see a 70% chance that the Fed's brutal 20-month tightening cycle is over and that rate cuts could begin as soon as June. So watch closely to see if the top central bankers push back against the cut chatter until inflation is truly tamed. Shekel, gold, oil response to the war5/RACE DAY RATE HIKEThe famous Melbourne Cup horse race runs on Tuesday, but some of the shortest odds are on an Aussie central bank rate hike over in Sydney that day. Three-year and 10-year Australian government bond yields have hit their highest since 2011, though backed off slightly on the Fed's hold. The Australian dollar has also rallied strongly against its New Zealand counterpart as rate expectations diverge.

Persons: Marc Jones, Dhara, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Lewis Krauskopf, BoE, Horton, Walt Disney, Mittal, shekel, Antony Blinken, Jordan, Luci Ellis, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima Talwani, Gareth Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ECB, FX, Bank of Japan, Reuters, eBay, Nvidia, UBS, ABN Amro, Allianz, Friday, U.S, Melbourne Cup, Westpac, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Australia, Gaza, Here's, London, Tokyo, Singapore, New York, Britain, U.S, Europe, Commerzbank, Israel, Gaza City, Iran, Sydney

☆ Oil prices steady, on track for second straight week of losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A view from the oil company Tatneft in Tatarstan, Russia on June 04, 2023. Oil prices were little changed on Friday, heading for their second straight week of losses as the U.S. central bank left the door open for possible future rate hikes and worries that the Middle East conflict would disrupt supply eased. Brent crude futures rose 6 cents to $86.91 a barrel by 0010 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.58 a barrel. Brent was on track to fall about 4% in the week, while WTI looked set to close down 3.5%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal delivered a "dovish" pause to its rate hikes on Wednesday, while the BoE delivered a "hawkish" pause on Thursday.

Persons: Brent, WTI, BoE Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Palestinian, U.S . Federal Locations: Tatarstan, Russia, Tatneft, U.S, Gaza, Israel, Saudi Arabia

☆ Bank of England set to keep rates at 15-year high despite slowdown signs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee is facing an inflation rate more than double that of the euro zone and almost twice the U.S. rate. It voted by only a narrow 5-4 margin in September to halt its run of increases in borrowing costs. But signs of a slowdown in much of the British economy have become clearer since then and some economists say a recession might already be under way. The central bank said in its last set of economic forecasts in August that inflation would only return to 2% in the second quarter of 2025. But Bailey and his MPC colleagues are likely to reiterate that they are ready to raise rates higher if needed.

Persons: BoE, Mike Riddell, Riddell, Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Allianz Global Investors, BoE, MPC, Conservative Party, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ UK house prices show surprise rise in October - Nationwide
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Prices increased by 0.9% from September when they had risen by a marginal 0.1%, Nationwide said. It was the biggest monthly increase since August 2022. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices to fall by a monthly 0.4% and by 4.8% year on year. "The uptick in house prices in October most likely reflects the fact that the supply of properties on the market is constrained," Nationwide Chief Economist Robert Gardner said. "While some buyers are able to accept higher mortgage payments, helping to prop up house prices, their number is dwindling as shown by the drop in mortgage approvals in September," Pattison said.

Persons: Robert Gardner, BoE, Gardner, Imogen Pattison, Pattison, William Schomberg, Jason Neely Organizations: Nationwide, Reuters, Royal Institution, Chartered Surveyors, Bank of England's, Capital Economics, Thomson

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