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☆ Recession looks unlikely if consumers remain resilient, says Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession looks unlikely if consumers remain resilient, says Moody's Mark ZandiCNBC's Steve Liesman and Mark Zandi, Moody Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed and economy.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Steve Liesman Organizations: Moody Analytics

☆ Goldman Sachs cuts US recession odds to 15% as economic optimism grows
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Goldman Sachs is increasingly confident that the US economy will stick the soft landing that many thought was nearly impossible to pull off. In a research report published Monday night, Goldman Sachs lowered its estimated chance of a US recession over the next 12 months to just 15%. Goldman Sachs pointed to “solid” job growth and rising real (inflation-adjusted) wages that should allow real disposable income to “reaccelerate” next year. The August jobs report, released late last week, showed that hiring remains solid, though it has slowed from the blockbuster pace of earlier in the post-pandemic recovery. “The August jobs report couldn’t be much better,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi wrote Friday on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Persons: New York CNN — Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs, That’s, It’s, ”, “, Jan Hatzius, ” Hatzius, Hatzius, reaccelerate ”, Mark Zandi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Bloomberg, Atlanta Locations: New York

☆ 6 things to know about the job market right now: It's 'near-perfect,' economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Job growth is slowingThe U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Job growth is clearly losing momentum: The three-month average in August was 150,000 jobs added, versus 201,000 in June, for example, Bunker said. Further, monthly job growth still exceeds U.S. population growth, economists said. Unemployment is up — but not for bad reasonsThe unemployment rate jumped to 3.8% in August from 3.5% in July, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. There were about 8.8 million openings in July, the fewest since March 2021, according to Labor Department data.

Persons: Mario Tama, Bunker, Julia Pollak, Lat, Aaron Terrazas, Andrew Hunter, Pollak, —, Zandi, Andrew Patterson, Hunter Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Yellow Corp, U.S . Labor Department, Capital Economics, Workers, Vanguard, White House Council, Economic, CEA Locations: U.S, Hollywood

☆ Fed won't cut rates unless inflation gets below 3%, which could be June '24: Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed won't cut rates unless inflation gets below 3%, which could be June '24: Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the overriding consensus from Jackson Hole, the trigger points for the Federal Reserve, and more.

Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi, Jackson Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —US inflation has had a snowballing effect on family budgets. The typical American household spent $709 more in July than they did two years ago to buy the same goods and services, according to Moody’s Analytics. That figure underscores the cumulative impact high inflation has had on consumer finances — even as price growth has cooled considerably in recent months. Most of that increase in spending is driven by housing costs, which have surged, Zandi told CNN in an email on Friday. Inflation-adjusted earnings are stuck in 2019Even though prices have soared, real earnings, which adjust for inflation, are stuck at late 2019 levels.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi, ” Zandi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s, Twitter, CNN, Federal, ” Bank of America Locations: New York

☆ Moody's Mark Zandi: Trend lines suggest inflation will moderate further
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMoody's Mark Zandi: Trend lines suggest inflation will moderate furtherRichard Bernstein's Dan Suzuki and Moody's Mark Zandi join 'Power Lunch' to give their read on the economy and CPI report.

Persons: Zandi, Richard Bernstein's Dan Suzuki, Mark Zandi

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Richard Bernstein’s Dan Suzuki and Moody’s Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Richard Bernstein’s Dan Suzuki and Moody’s Mark ZandiRichard Bernstein's Dan Suzuki and Moody's Mark Zandi join 'Power Lunch' to give their read on the economy and CPI report.

Persons: Richard Bernstein’s Dan Suzuki, Mark Zandi Richard Bernstein's Dan Suzuki, Mark Zandi

☆ Thursday's inflation data may be low, but don't expect the Fed to declare 'mission accomplished' yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But history has shown that inflation is stubborn and can last longer than expected once it becomes elevated and entrenched. "We can feel confident that inflation is moving in the right direction," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. For instance, housing-related costs, which make up about one-third of the inflation index weighting, are dropping. In particular, they don't want to declare 'mission accomplished' too soon," he said Wednesday during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." watch nowAt the macro level, the Fed rate hikes have appeared to do minimal damage.

Persons: Mandel Ngan, Dow Jones, Mark Zandi, Zandi, they're, Richard Clarida isn't, Clarida, Joe Biden, Patrick Reilly, Banks, Reilly, John Williams of, Patrick Harker Organizations: AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, CPI, Moody's, Federal, of Labor Statistics, AAA, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, America Economic Survey Locations: Bethesda , Maryland, John Williams of New York, Philadelphia

☆ US gas prices are surging to their highest level since October 2022 – and economists are warning of an inflation 'smile'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US gas prices are on the rise again, stoking concerns that it could fuel inflation. The average gallon of gas traded at $3.89, its highest level since October 2022. The average gallon of gas traded at $3.89, its highest level since October 2022, per AAA. The surge in gas prices comes amid rising oil prices, largely spurred by supply cuts by key producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said the spike in oil prices were a threat to his optimism about US inflation.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal Reserve, AAA, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Allianz Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia

☆ Opinion: Trump’s hat trick is America’s Rorschach test
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-06 | by ( Jane Carr | Opinion Jane Greenway Carr | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets. “The ramifications of these charges for Trump and the country are enormous,” wrote legal scholar Michael Gerhardt. A sobering new studyAfrica Studio/Adobe StockA recent study has found that alcohol-related deaths are rising more quickly among American women than among American men. There’s no reason to think that will changeMike Shields: A tectonic shift in GOP voter turnout is underwayA back-to-school questionDenver Public School nurse Jennifer Nelson works at McAuliffe Manual Middle School. Every child deserves a school nurse.”

Persons: Pythagoras, It’s, Tobias Smollett, Peregrine Pickle, who’s, won’t, Donald Trump’s, Jack Smith’s, ”, Michael Gerhardt, “, Trump, ” Clay Jones, John Avlon, Ulysses S, Grant, Black, … Trump, ” George Costanza’s, Eric Klein, Jeremi Suri, ” Klein, Tanya Chutkan, Klein, Suri, Russell J, Levenson, Jr, Julian Zelizer, Dean Obeidallah, Phil Hands, Jon Gabriel, Gabriel, Badri, Paul Kane, punctuating, Aimee Phan, wouldn’t, Phan, Morocco’s Nouhaila, …, I’ve, CNN Opinion’s Kirsi Goldynia, Dr, Catherine Donnelly, Donnelly, Whitney Browne, Alvin Ailey, O’Shae Sibley, Clay Cane, Cane, ” Cane, Jill Filipovic, Filipovic, —, ” Filipovic, Eric Winer, Winer, Don’t, Ralph Tedy Erol, Catherine Russell, Rachel Marshall, Georgia Mark Zandi, Mike Shields, Jennifer Nelson, Hyoung Chang, ’ Organizations: CNN, Trinity, Capitol, Trump, Ku Klux Klan, Klan, Reconstruction, US, GOP, Warner Bros, Agency, Sun, FIFA, Canada, Germany, juggernaut, Department of Nutrition, Food Sciences, University of Vermont, Adobe, Yale Cancer Center, Haitian National Police, Denver Public School, McAuliffe, Middle, Denver Post, National Association of School Nurses, American Academy of Pediatrics, Research Locations: Scottish, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, United States, Washington ,, Wisconsin, Phoenix , Arizona, xeriscaping, Morocco, Colombia, South Africa, Jamaica, Vietnamese, Philippines, Zealand, Vietnam, States, Thailand, Washington, Brooklyn, America, New York City, Philadelphia, Africa, American, Port, Prince, Haiti

☆ Opinion: The US has always made good on its debt. There’s no reason to think that will change
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Opinion Mark Zandi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The higher the rating, the more likely the investor can trust that principal and interest payments will arrive on time. Indeed, global investors use the interest rate on US Treasury bonds to determine the interest rate on other countries’ bonds. Consider the recent battle over increasing the Treasury debt limit and looming prospects for a government shutdown later this year. These so-called governance issues are central to Fitch’s decision to downgrade the nation’s debt. The last time was in the early 1990s when interest payments on the debt ballooned, and the fiscal outlook darkened.

Persons: Mark Zandi, CNN —, Fitch, “, Thomas Jefferson, Alexander Hamilton, we’ve, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, Lore, Winston Churchill Organizations: Moody’s, CNN, AAA, Mark Zandi CNN, Treasury, European Union, US Treasury, Twitter, Facebook, Democrat, Republican, British

CNN —There may not be any lasting major negative ramifications from the surprise US credit rating downgrade by Fitch this week — not for the economy, not for consumers and not for the government’s ability to borrow. Normally, when your credit score as a consumer falls — or your credit rating as a country — there are negative consequences. Here’s why the United States is unlikely to see that kind of impact from the Fitch downgrade. The downgrade wasn’t a huge dropFitch cut its US credit rating to AA+ from what had been a sterling AAA rating. “Fitch’s credit rating is an expression of the probability of a default.

Persons: You’re, Fitch, “, brinkmanship, Marc Goldwein, you’re, ”, Mark Zandi, Yellen, Jamie Dutta, Dutta, ” George Mateyo, ” Mateyo, ” José Torres, Torres, it’s, ” Torres, Uncle Sam, CRFB, – CNN’s Krystal Hur, Allison Morrow Organizations: CNN, Fitch, AAA, Committee, U.S . Treasury, Moody’s, AA, “, Vantage, Key Private Bank, Federal Reserve, Interactive Brokers, Moody’s Investors Service, Treasury, Congressional, Social Security Locations: United States, States, corporates, United

☆ The 'richcession' isn't happening. The ultra-wealthy have never been richer and they're still spending like crazy.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Experts say the richest are actually even richer and spending more than they were before the pandemic. Most Americans now have "spent up" demand for goods, but still have pent up demand for services, Zandi says. In her experience, luxury spending is highly correlated with the stock market, and investors have enjoyed handsome returns so far this year as the S&P 500 rebounds from its 2022 lows. The luxury services sector was a particular hot spot. "If this is a richcession, the rich are probably saying, bring it on," Zandi said.

Persons: they've, Mark Zandi, Zandi, they're, Rather, pricey Taylor Swift, Taylor Swift, Patek Philippe, Claudia D'Arpizio, D'Arpizio, Scott Dunn, Bridget Lackie, Lackie, Jennifer Stillman, Douglas Elliman, we've, Stillman Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Rolex, Bain & Company Locations: YOLO, Wall, Silicon, New York

☆ Inflation will keep moderating so Fed won't raise rates after today, says Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation will keep moderating so Fed won't raise rates after today, says Moody's Mark ZandiEmily Roland, John Hancock Investment Management co-chief investment strategist, Subadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rates strategy, and Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the upcoming decision from the Federal Reserve.

Persons: Mark Zandi Emily Roland, John, Subadra, Mark Zandi Organizations: John Hancock Investment Management, Societe Generale, Federal Reserve

☆ Opinion | Sorry, but I Still Think a Recession Is Coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

More and more economists are dropping their recession calls for the U.S. economy. They are forecasting instead a “soft landing” in which the economy continues to grow, but more slowly. Inflation has come down, lessening the need for the Federal Reserve to cool the economy off with higher interest rates. And the stock market is up, which makes people feel wealthier and in the mood to spend. All that said, I’m sticking with my prediction of a recession.

Persons: “, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi, Biden Organizations: Times, Federal Reserve, CNN, Republican Locations: U.S

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for June, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Hourly earnings increased 0.2%, on average, from May to June after accounting for inflation, according to BLS data. 'Encouraging' inflation signals moving forwardThe inflation slowdown has been broad-based, Zandi said. watch nowGrocery price inflation is also down significantly from its peak around 14% last summer, which had been the highest rate since 1979. Economists say it's a near certainty that housing prices will continue to fall through the second half of the year.

Persons: Michael M, Mark Zandi, Zandi, we're, Mark Hamrick, Andrew Hunter, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Stephanie Roth, Roth Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, BLS, Capital Economics, Finance, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Morgan Private Bank Locations: Brooklyn , New York, U.S, Ukraine

☆ The U.S. Economy Looked Like it Was in for a Recession. It Wasn’t. - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Almost a year has passed since the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which estimates gross domestic product, announced that real G.D.P. had declined over the previous two quarters — a phenomenon that is widely, although incorrectly, described as the official definition of a recession. Right-wingers had a field day, crowing about the “Biden recession.” But it wasn’t just a partisan thing. Even forecasters who knew that recessions are defined by multiple indicators, and that America wasn’t in a recession yet, began predicting one in the near future. As Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, one of the few prominent recession skeptics, put it: “Every person on TV says recession.

Persons: Biden, Mark Zandi, I’ve Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Moody's Analytics Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Moody's Analytics Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss payroll employment gains, new job creation falling short, and Federal Reserve policy reaching sufficiently restrictive levels.

Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ We are creating a lot of jobs, but not nearly as many as we think, says Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe are creating a lot of jobs, but not nearly as many as we think, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss payroll employment gains, new job creation falling short of expectations, and Federal Reserve policy reaching sufficiently restrictive levels.

Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Recession worries are likely to carry over into the second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

LaVorgna is in the camp that says it will be difficult if not impossible for the U.S. to avoid at least a modest period of negative growth in the second half. "The only way we won't have a deep recession is if the Fed has the courage to ease very quickly." "The second half will be difficult. And if history is any guide, the strength that has marked the first half of the year likely will carry over into the second half. In years when the index gained more than 10% in the first half, the second half usually sees double the normal second-half return, according to CFRA.

Persons: Joseph LaVorgna, Trump, LaVorgna, That's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, hasn't, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities America, Fed, Market Committee, Atlanta, Moody's, University of Michigan, Treasury, Pantheon Locations: U.S, nonfarm payrolls, Friday's

☆ Resetting student loans brings Econ 101 lessons
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Joe Biden’s student loan forbearance erases as much as $20,000 in potential relief for graduates. Combined with the resumption of debt payments, borrowers will be feeling the pinch in their wallets and their confidence. The court said on Friday that a plan to wipe out swathes of student loans was unconstitutional, ending hopes of an easier financial future for some 43 million borrowers. If the Supreme Court had supported the relief, it also risked stoking inflation just as it slides to a healthier level. The proposal aimed to relieve $10,000 of student loans for individuals earning less than $125,000 annually, and an additional $10,000 for eligible borrowers who received Pell Grant subsidies.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Mark Zandi, Taco, Pell Grant, Donald Trump, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Supreme, White, Census Bureau, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Taco Bell, Yum Brands, Biden, Democratic, Congressional, Office, Former U.S, Thomson

☆ Breakingviews: Student-loan ruling offers Econ 101 crash course
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Joe Biden’s student loan forbearance erases as much as $20,000 in potential relief for graduates. Combined with the resumption of debt payments, borrowers will be feeling the pinch in their wallets and their confidence. Had Biden’s policy covered $10,000 of their debt, the typical monthly payment would have shrunk by about a quarter. If the Supreme Court had supported the relief, it also risked stoking inflation just as it slides to a healthier level. CONTEXT NEWSThe U.S. Supreme Court on June 30 ruled 6-3 against President Joe Biden’s plan to forgive student loan debt for some 43 million borrowers.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Mark Zandi, Taco, Pell Grant, Donald Trump, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Supreme, White, Census Bureau, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Taco Bell, Yum Brands, Biden, Twitter, Democratic, Congressional, Office, Former U.S, Thomson

☆ What Supreme Court ruling against Biden's student loan forgiveness plan could mean for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Seksan Mongkhonkhamsao | Moment | Getty ImagesThe Supreme Court struck down the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness plan Friday. "The Supreme Court decision to strike down loan forgiveness should have no meaningful impact on the economy," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. The fight against inflation gets a boostIt's challenging to judge the economic effect of a sweeping policy such as student loan forgiveness. However, the resumption of monthly student loan payments in October, after a three-year pause, will likely have a bigger effect. That said, there are student loan policies that have already been enacted by the Biden administration that will likely help borrowers affected by Friday's Supreme Court ruling, economists said.

Persons: Seksan, —, Mark Zandi, Shai Akabas, Zandi, Tim Quinlan, Quinlan, Biden Organizations: Biden, Moody's, Finance, Supreme, Reserve, Center, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, Friday's Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo

☆ The Supreme Court's rejection of Biden's student-loan-forgiveness plan will make a looming economic slowdown even worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The repayment poses risks to the economy, with consumer spending likely to be reduced. On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that Biden's plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt will be struck down. But they're a weight, it's about 20 million student-loan borrowers that haven't been paying, they'll have to begin paying more or less in September," Zandi said. White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton was asked this week about how the student-loan payment resumption could impact consumer spending. And his concerns are broader than just a contraction in consumer spending.

Persons: —, Joe Biden's, Mark Zandi, haven't, Zandi, that's, Ethan Harris, Morgan Stanley, Olivia Dalton, Dalton, Marshall Steinbaum Organizations: Education Department, Service, Moody's, CNBC, Bank, Bank of, UBS, White, Politico, Family Institute, University of Utah Locations: Wall

☆ Inflation hurts. But White House economists find that it’s even worse in every other G7 nation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —The United States is recovering faster than its peers from the historic bout of inflation squeezing families and souring the mood of the nation, according to a new analysis from White House economists. To address that, the White House economists built an apples-to-apples inflation metric that makes certain adjustments to how shelter costs factor into overall inflation. But we are very heartened and happy to see the trend going where it is,” a CEA official told CNN in a phone interview. And here’s the thing about inflation: It is undeniably down in the United States.”Two independent economists that CNN shared the CEA report with support the logic powering the analysis. That is absolutely a painful thing,” the CEA official said.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, “, “ I’m, Mark Zandi, Republican John McCain, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden, Brian Moynihan, CNN’s Poppy Harlow, George W, Bush, Piper Sandler, Trump, ” Piper Sandler Organizations: New York CNN Business —, White House, of Economic Advisers, CNN, CEA, White, Republican, RSM, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Federal, Gallup Locations: United States, Ukraine, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Wall, Middle America

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