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☆ CNBC Daily Open: An ‘immaculate disinflation’ amid uncertainty?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. They're all but certain the central bank will keep interest rates the same for now, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. It's the November meeting investors are fretting over. Hence, the Fed's dot plot, which charts where the central bankers think interest rates will be in the short- and long-term, will be closely scrutinized by investors. "And I think we may very well have immaculate disinflation, where inflation comes down without an economy-wide recession."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, it's, Hatzius, Ed Yardeni, they're, Yardeni Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Ormat Technologies, Inc, NYSE, CNBC, Yardeni Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Amid uncertainty, an ‘immaculate disinflation’?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Spencer Platt | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. They're all but certain the central bank will keep interest rates the same for now, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. It's the November meeting investors are fretting over. Hence, the Fed's dot plot, which charts where the central bankers think interest rates will be in the short- and long-term, will be closely scrutinized by investors.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, it's, Hatzius, Ed Yardeni, they're, Yardeni Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, Yardeni Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ We may very well have an immaculate disinflation, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe may very well have an immaculate disinflation, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's rate hike campaign, economic outlook, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Everybody agrees that inflation has to come down for the economy to grow sustainably: Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEverybody agrees that inflation has to come down for the economy to grow sustainably: Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his call for a year-end stock surge.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Ballooning US deficit will keep bond yields high, even as inflation cools, market veteran says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Despite cooling inflation, a growing US deficit will force yields to stay elevated, Ed Yardeni wrote. The 10-year Treasury yield is likely to remain elevated at around 4.25%-4.5%. "That's the highest ever excluding during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite Biden's claim that his administration has implemented measures to slash the deficit," Yardeni wrote. So, even as inflation heads towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target rate, the 10-year Treasury bond is likely to remain elevated at around 4.25%-4.50%, the market veteran said. Increasing the yield may be necessary as net inflows into bond mutual funds and ETFS has dwindled, Yardeni wrote.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, That's, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Treasury Department, Federal, Social Security, Treasury, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Experts are split on whether stocks will beat the 'September Effect' – Ed Yardeni warns of pain while Bank of America sees room for gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

September is historically considered the worst month of the year for stocks, in what is known as the "September Effect." But this year, market experts appear divided over whether US equities will repeat the pattern or defy it. AdvertisementAdvertisementEd Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research"On Sunday, we observed that September is a good month for picking apples. Among things that could go wrong for investors this month, Yardeni highlighted rising oil prices, inflation risks, and China's faltering economy. David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg ResearchIn contrast, top economist Rosenberg has long-warned about a looming crash in in stocks.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, it's, Santa Claus, Tom Lee, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, we're, Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CFRA Research, Yardeni, Investor, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, " Bank of America, Fed, Rosenberg Research Locations: Wall, Silicon, Septembers, Santa

☆ September is historically the worst month for stocks. That might not be the case this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —US stocks typically see their worst performance of the year in September, but there are signs the market could avoid a steep downturn this time around. This month has been the worst for stocks on average since 1928, according to Yardeni Research. That’s partly because, much like August, there is a lull in economic data that could catalyze a stock rally. While stocks fell roughly 2% in August, they still outperformed their 4% loss during the same month last year. It’s the latest example of how extreme weather, exacerbated by climate change, impacted major North American attractions this summer, reports my colleague Nathaniel Meyersohn.

Persons: Mark Hackett, Hackett, “, ”, Stocks, he’s, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Red Bull, Jessie Yeung, Junko Ogura, Nissin, Nissin Curry, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Research, Labor, Nationwide, Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nevada, SeaWorld, Southwest, California, Canada, Florida, Asia, Japan

☆ Insider Today: Y Combinator's Demo Day decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Y Combinator's Demo Day, which will wrap up today, was long considered the event for early-stage startups. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors front-running Demo Day was previously considered a major faux pas. You might ask yourself: Who cares if startups line up investments before Demo Day? And companies that get investments before Demo Day might regret it in the long run. The new rating system for performance reviews determines pay — and managers were instructed to not share it with employees.

Persons: I've, that's, Madeline Renbarger, haven't, It's, it's, Samantha Lee, Madeline, There's, Martin, Ryan Reynolds, LeBron James, they're, Ed Yardeni, Jeremy Grantham, Brevan Howard, Peter Hornick, Eduardo Munoz, Sapna Chadha, Shopify, Arantza Pena Popo, YIMBYism, Elon Musk, Katy Perry, Hozier, Hayao Miyazaki's, Heidi Tissenbaum's, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, NFL, Tech, Bank, Getty Images, REUTERS, Google, Google Asia Pacific, The Kansas City Chiefs —, Detroit Lions, 48th Toronto, Getty Locations: Wall, Silicon, Silicon Valley, Nevada, The, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ We're seeing the soft landing that the market's been looking for, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're seeing the soft landing that the market's been looking for, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the August jobs report, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ August once again lives up to its dismal reputation for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 is down more than 3% this month, on pace to snap a five-month winning streak. Go back 20 years and the performance gets worse: The S&P 500 has averaged a monthly 0.1% loss in that time. The S&P 500 has averaged a 0.5% loss in September over the past 20 years. Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 1% each September. "For S&P 500 levels, we see 4,400 as the start of support (50-day average) that extends down to 4,200 (Feb.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Wall, —, Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, China's, Ed Yardeni, we're Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Wall, Garden Holdings, Hang, Yardeni Research Locations: China, U.S, Hong Kong

☆ CNBC Daily Open: When yields are this high, why buy stocks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Typically, stocks — if they do well — tend to return more than a risk-free asset, precisely because it isn't certain stocks will rise. While "the Fed can control short rates," long rates going up can introduce "significant risk" to the economy, such as the recent Fitch downgrade and quantitative tightening. It wasn't a surprise, then, that stock markets fell Tuesday.

Persons: Nathan Howard, yield's, Rupert Thompson, Cash, That's, Bob Pisani, it's, Torsten Slok, Adam Turnquist, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Kingswood Group, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia, LPL, Yardeni Locations: Washington , DC

☆ CNBC Daily Open: With such high yields, why buy stocks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That's called the equity risk premium, a return that's supposed to compensate stock investors for the chance that they might lose money. Another potential issue that could crop up with high Treasury yields is that it could make the Federal Reserve's job tougher. It wasn't a surprise, then, that stock markets fell Tuesday.

Persons: Nathan Howard, Tesla, Anwar Ibrahim, CNBC's Martin Soong, That's, yield's, Rupert Thompson, Cash, Bob Pisani, it's, Torsten Slok, Adam Turnquist, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Malaysia, country's, Vehicle Global, Analysts, International Atomic Energy Agency, Kingswood Group, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia, LPL, Yardeni Locations: Washington , DC, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, Malaysia, California, China, Tokyo

☆ The bond market is still driven to a large extent by inflation, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bond market is still driven to a large extent by inflation, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why he believes stocks are clearly being driven by bonds, Treasury yields outlook, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ Bond vigilantes are 'saddling up.' Here's how concerned investors might take action over the ballooning federal deficit.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-20 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bond vigilantes are "saddling up" again as federal deficits balloon, said market veteran Ed Yardeni. And I think the bond vigilantes are quite concerned about that." Now there are signs they are stirring again as bond yields continue to climb despite signs of cooling inflation. And I think the bond vigilantes are quite concerned about that," he said. In a now-legendary commentary from 1983 titled "Bond Investors Are the Economy's Bond Vigilantes," Yardeni warned, "So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won't regulate the economy, the bond investors will.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, e've, Yardeni, we've, James Carville, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Bond Organizations: Service, Treasury, Yardeni, Bloomberg, Federal, Republican Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ NewEdge Wealth's Cameron Dawson: Keep long-term goals in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNewEdge Wealth's Cameron Dawson: Keep long-term goals in sightCameron Dawson, chief investment officer for NewEdge Wealth, Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, andEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market seasonality and market laggards.

Persons: Wealth's Cameron Dawson, Cameron Dawson, Joe Terranova, andEd Organizations: Virtus Investment Partners, Yardeni Research

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Virtus' Joe Terranova and Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Virtus' Joe Terranova and Ed YardeniCameron Dawson, chief investment officer for NewEdge Wealth, Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, andEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market seasonality and market laggards.

Persons: NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Virtus, Joe Terranova, Ed Yardeni Cameron Dawson, andEd Organizations: Virtus Investment Partners, Yardeni Research

☆ Zero-day-options, weak technicals and China: Breaking down the market’s August headwinds
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"The S & P is not quite there, but we would be very surprised if it doesn't follow the NDX's lead." On top of that, some are worried that another real estate crisis in China may be brewing. "It's been almost two years since China Evergrande Group, once China's largest real estate developer, shocked the financial markets by defaulting on $340 billion in debt. Since then, the Chinese real estate market has been in a serious slump," wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Investment in real estate fell 8.5% y/y during the first seven months of this year."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Rubner, 0DTE, Technicals, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, It's, Ed Yardeni, we're, Sarat Sethi, Johnson, Sethi, CNBC's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq, China Evergrande Group, Yardeni, Investment, U.S, JPMorgan Locations: China, U.S, Freeport, McMoRan, Haleon

☆ Premarket stocks: Does it matter whether the Federal Reserve hikes or pauses rates in September?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in July to the highest level in 22 years, Wall Street’s focus is on whether September will bring another rate hike. But does it really matter whether the Fed raises or pauses rates next month? Before the Bell: Does it matter whether the Fed raises rates in September by another quarter point or holds steady instead? And, that earnings can grow even in an environment where interest rates are back to levels that they have been in for the past couple of decades. Year-over-year comparisons should improve, but I think investors want to see that.

Persons: Bell, Ed Yardeni, they’ve, Moody’s, they’re, We’ve, Fitch, CNN’s Kathleen Magramo, Women Jan Tinetti, Tinetti, Read, CNN’s Olesya Dmitracova, Darren Morgan, ”, Jonathan Moyes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Employers, Traders, Yardeni, Women, Labour, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, Gross, National Statistics, Wealth Locations: New York, New Zealand

☆ We're overall looking at a disinflationary train, says Yardeni Research president
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're overall looking at a disinflationary train, says Yardeni Research presidentEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Yardeni's disinflation outlook, the odds of a rate cut next year, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research

☆ The Fed can take the rest of the year off as inflation is crumbling and there's no recession in sight, market vet Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed can take the rest of 2023 off, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. The US may be able to avoid a recession after all as the economy enters a "rolling recovery," he added. Inflation is dropping, and there's no sign that the economy will tip into the recession investors have fretted about, according to Ed Yardeni. But if shelter prices were excluded from the July CPI, inflation has already back down to 2%, Yardeni said. And shelter inflation has shown signs of falling in recent months, which will eventually reflect in the official inflation statistics, Yardeni said.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, we've Organizations: Service, Yardeni, CPI Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ These 16 cities offer the cheapest first year of homeownership in the US when considering down payments, taxes, and closing costs, according to Point2
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

But according to Point2, 16 cities including Detroit offer first-year homeownership costs under $80K. First-year costs include down payments, mortgage payments, taxes, insurance, and closing costs. In a recent analysis of the 100 largest US markets, the firm identified the 16 cities with the cheapest first year of homeownership after considering the average cost of a 20% down payment, closing costs, property taxes, monthly mortgage payments, and homeowners' insurance. In all 16 of the cities, the first year's cost of homeownership was under $80,000. We've listed the cities below starting with the least expensive, and have included Point2's price breakdown of each item noted above.

Persons: It's, homebuying —, Point2 Organizations: National Association of Realtors, homebuying Locations: Point2, Detroit

☆ Ed Yardeni: No recession in sight, the economy is in a rolling recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEd Yardeni: No recession in sight, the economy is in a rolling recoveryEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his takeaways from July's CPI report.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research, CPI

☆ These 5 bearish arguments have yet to derail the stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are five major bearish arguments for an imminent recession and a falling stock market. Here's why each of the bearish arguments have yet to put a dent in the stock market rally. According to Wednesday note from market veteran Ed Yardeni, all of the bearish arguments supporting a stock market sell-off and eventual recession have fallen flat, and that means there could be more gains ahead. These are the five bearish arguments for the stock market, and why they haven't yet derailed the current rally, according to Yardeni. "This conclusion is confirmed by Fed data on the ownership of deposits plus money market funds by generation cohorts."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, LEI, That's Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, ATA, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Yardeni

☆ Looming inflation report could hold an unpleasant surprise for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank district's Inflation Nowcast model points to a 0.4% rise that would equate to a 3.4% annual rate. "Rent could be an important source of a positive (moderating) surprise in July's CPI," Yardeni wrote. 'Sticky' inflation persists But inflation has proven more persistent than most policymakers, particularly those at the Fed, would have thought. In fact, the Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI is still at 5.8% on a 12-month basis — though 2.9% at an annualized pace — after peaking at 6.7% earlier this year. Moreover, Thursday's core CPI reading is expected to show core inflation running at a 4.7% annual level, just a tad below the June reading.

Persons: Dow Jones, it's, Ed Yardeni, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Morgan, Yardeni, Jerome Powell, Andrew Hollenhorst, Hollenhorst, Solita Marcelli Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, CPI, Cleveland Fed, UBS Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ Stock-market investors rarely see a recession coming despite warning signals. As all the classic alarm bells ring again, this time is no different, experts say — setting investors up to get crushed.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-05 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 has rallied 17% year-to-date, but the Treasury yield curve and LEI point to a downturn. For Rosenberg, the difference is that we currently have an inverted yield curve, a recession signal that has preceded every downturn since the 1960s. An inverted yield curve means that rates on short-duration Treasurys rise higher than rates on long-duration Treasurys. The yield curve inverts often during Fed hiking cycles because short-term Treasury rates track closely along with the fed funds rate. The below chart shows the share of consecutive trading days where the yield curve has been inverted.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, Here's Lacy Hunt, here's Rosenberg, Piper Sandler, Piper Sandler Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Federal, Hoisington Investment Management Company, of Labor Statistics

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