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ORLANDO, Florida, April 28 (Reuters) - With the U.S. debt ceiling crisis set to reach boiling point between June and August, it already promises to be a long hot summer for financial markets. - and inflation is high, while history shows the U.S. Congress certainly has the ability to push debt ceiling negotiations to the brink. "Markets are fundamentally intolerant of tightening liquidity conditions, and you could see this confluence of tightening liquidity where the debt ceiling and YCC come together," said Alex Lennard, investment director at Ruffer LLP. Default fears could suck more money out of bills and into safer parts of the money market universe like the Fed's RRP, exacerbating broader market liquidity conditions. Related columns:- 'Peak Fed' aggravates U.S. debt ceiling strains- Inequality and 'deposit glut' sowed bank instabilityBy Jamie McGeever; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ BOJ’s new governor has relaxed debut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

What once looked solely like temporary “cost-push” hikes engendered by volatile energy and food prices are starting to look more entrenched. Instead Ueda kept YCC in place and tweaked the forward guidance to remove reference to pandemic-related risks. The BOJ predicts inflation will fall back below 2% soon and plans a policy review over the next year or so. That suggests the BOJ is more worried about weak growth – it expects 1.4% this fiscal year - than inflation. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

That means portfolio managers are having to factor a stronger yen into global stock selection in way they have not for years, with some even anticipating mergers and acquisitions as the Japanese market revs up. "The trigger for the revaluation of the Japanese markets is higher rates and then a stronger yen. Japan's insurers and pension funds alone hold $1.84 trillion in foreign assets, Deutsche Bank calculates, greater than the size of South Korea's economy. "Policy normalisation could turn back the clock for Japanese investors," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note. Carmignac, like many global investors, has maintained an underweight position towards Japanese stocks but, Leroux said, it was looking to raise this to neutral.

☆ New BOJ chief's first task may be to tweak forward guidance
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A shift to a less dovish bias could signal a near-term tweak to YCC, analysts say. GUIDANCE QUESTIONSUeda left few clues on how soon the guidance could change, telling an inaugural news conference on April 10 that the board will "discuss all options at each of our policy meetings." Under current projections made in January, the BOJ expects core consumer inflation to hit 1.6% this year and 1.8% in fiscal 2024. Many analysts expect the BOJ to project inflation to hover near, but stay slightly below, the bank's 2% target for both fiscal 2024 and 2025. Ueda is expected to hold a news conference after the policy meeting on Friday to explain the bank's decision.

☆ Dollar edges lower; on track for second straight monthly loss
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar dipped against most major currencies in early Asia trade, with the euro and sterling rising 0.05% to $1.0994 and 0.02% to $1.2447, respectively. "There's nothing, as yet, to hang your hat on rate cuts in the second half of the year." Elsewhere, the kiwi gained 0.07% to $0.6143, while the U.S. dollar index slipped 0.02% to 101.66. The index was eyeing a monthly loss of close to 0.9%, having fallen more than 2% in March. In Asia, the Bank of Japan's policy meeting this week takes centre stage, as it marks the first meeting to be chaired by new BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda.

☆ BOJ chief wants 'quite strong' inflation before tweaking yield control policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"At present, trend inflation is below 2% so we must maintain monetary easing," Ueda told parliament. "But when trend inflation is projected to reach 2%, the BOJ must normalise monetary policy," he added. Ueda's comments come ahead of a two-day BOJ policy meeting that kicks off on Thursday, where the board will produce fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts. "The BOJ's forecasts of trend inflation for half a year, one year and one-and-a-half years ahead must be quite strong and close to 2%. "The BOJ has already been conducting many estimates on how a normalisation of monetary policy could affect its finances," he said.

☆ Dollar slides as rate cuts priced in; yen falls ahead of BOJ meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar fell to a more than one-week low against major currencies on Monday in generally thin trading, as investors continued to price in interest rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve after a widely expected rate increase at next week's policy meeting. Fed policymakers are widely expected to raise rates by another 25 bps at next week's meeting, but they are seen pausing in June. The rate futures market has also factored in roughly 50 bps of rate cuts by the end of the year. There were likewise hawkish remarks from Belgian central bank chief and ECB policy maker Pierre Wunsch. Beyond the excitement of the euro/yen cross, currency markets were quiet, as traders waited for key central bank meetings, the first of which is the BOJ on Friday, the first Ueda will chair.

☆ Asia stocks off to slow start in earnings-rich week
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) nudged up 0.2%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures both eased 0.2% ahead of a busy week of earnings. The U.S. House of Representatives could this week vote on a Republican plan to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for spending cuts. Figures on U.S. wages and economic growth due this week will likely reinforce the case for further tightening. Oil prices also lost ground last week, though planned production cuts from OPEC offer some support.

This comes as month-end approaches and investors look ahead to the U.S. central bank's May 2-3 policy meeting. The advance estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP growth is out this week, and big tech earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are due. Tesla shares fell 13% last week after an earnings miss, the biggest fall in almost a year. Ueda has insisted that the current policy will remain in place for now, damping down prospects of a shift this week. The central bank's revised inflation and growth forecasts might also give a clue as to when it will tweak or abandon YCC.

☆ BOJ unlikely to move in April, most economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ will likely keep YCC unchanged at next week's meeting as it awaits more evidence of sustained wage growth, sources have told Reuters. Only three of 27 economists, or 11%, said the BOJ will start to scale-back its monetary stimulus next week, whereas 11 (41%) opted for the June meeting, the April 12-19 poll showed. He added the lowered U.S. and Japanese yields after the financial turmoil also decreased the urgency to tweak YCC, which has previously faced market attacks to break the upper limit. Compared with the March poll, fewer economists expect a sudden abolition of YCC to come without warning. Half of the 24 respondents anticipated another YCC tweak, if not an outright end, in April-June.

☆ BOJ open to tweaking YCC this year if wage momentum holds - sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Given looming overseas economic risks, it's appropriate to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy now," said one of the sources, a view echoed by two more sources. Others in the BOJ see scope to debate a tweak possibly in the coming months, emboldened by big pay hikes offered by major firms in annual spring wage talks, the sources say. An intensifying labour shortage will likely keep companies under pressure to hike wages, even if the economy slows, according to those who see room for a near-term policy tweak. Market developments will also be crucial in determining the timing of a policy tweak, they say. Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose monetary policy, including YCC, as sustained achievement of 2% inflation has yet to come into sight.

☆ New BOJ chief's message to world: We're staying the course - for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term rates at -0.1% and the 10-year Japan government bond yield around zero with an implicit cap of 0.5%. "We're in an economy where we're going to be hit more by supply shocks, and monetary policy will face more serious trade-offs," she said on Friday. Ranil Salgado, the IMF's Japan mission chief, sees scope for the BOJ to modify the long-term yield target this year, given heightening prospects of durable wage growth. As long as the short-term rates remain zero or slightly negative, the BOJ can keep monetary policy accommodative even if it tweaks the yield target, he said. "We are advising (the BOJ) to pretty much already be thinking about it," Salgado said on the idea of tweaking YCC.

☆ Analysis: New BOJ head's message to world: We're staying the course - for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ IMF sees scope for BOJ to tweak yield target this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Salgado said the BOJ must keep monetary policy ultra-loose as sustainable achievement of 2% inflation is not yet in sight. Once the BOJ has confidence that Japan will see inflation and wage growth durably accelerate, it can tweak its long-term interest rate target, he said. Under its yield curve control (YCC) policy, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at the -0.1% level and the 10-year bond yield around zero with an implicit cap of 0.5%. As long as the short-term rates remain zero or slightly negative, the BOJ can keep monetary policy accommodative even if it tweaks the yield target, Salgado said. "Our personal view is, yes," he said, when asked whether conditions could fall in place for the BOJ to tweak the 10-year yield target this year.

☆ IMF says more flexible BOJ yield control can prevent market whiplash
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ guides the 10-year government bond yield around 0% as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. The central bank's decision in December to widen the tolerance band around the yield target has heightened market bets of a further near-term tweak or end to YCC. Changes to the BOJ's yield control policy may affect financial markets through exchange rates, term premiums on sovereign bonds and global risk premiums, the IMF said. While the yield control policy has helped keep borrowing costs low, it has come under increasing criticism for distorting market pricing and crushing financial institutions' profits. "Clear communication in the event of adjustments to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is critical to avoid market volatility," it said.

☆ Living standards are still falling in Japan. That’s a recipe for more stagnation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Adjusted for inflation, wages slipped 2.6% in February, compared to the same month a year earlier, according to government data released last week. That means it’ll be tough for Ueda to hike interest rates, especially as living standards aren’t rising either. The issue of stagnant wages could improve this year, as companies heed the call to raise salaries in response to inflation. Workers in Japan have been grappling with stagnant wages, leading to a government push for businesses to hike pay. But in Japan, it’s high enough to feel uncomfortable, given stagnant wage growth, according to Angrick.

☆ BOJ to continue monetary easing to achieve inflation target
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, April 12 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will continue monetary easing to achieve its 2% inflation target accompanied by wage hikes in a sustainable and stable manner, new deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said on Wednesday. The comment followed Ueda's view earlier that it was appropriate to maintain the central bank's ultra-loose monetary policy for now as inflation has yet to sustainably meet its 2% target. Uchida said Japanese financial institutions are equipped with sufficient capital and fund-raising bases, making any impact from Western banking problems since March "limited." "The BOJ will continue with monetary easing so as to achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner, while supporting the economy together with wage hikes." More Japanese households are expecting prices to rise a year from now, a BOJ quarterly survey showed on Wednesday, raising pressure on the central bank to adjust or ditch its yield curve control (YCC) policy.

☆ Analysis: Japan's upbeat wages may keep new BOJ chief on hook for policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However, a widely expected upgrade in the Bank of Japan's price forecasts due this month may show inflation staying near 2% for several years. "The BOJ will probably upgrade its price forecasts this month. In doing so, it could offer new guidance on future policy and tweak YCC around summer or autumn," she said. With more firms hiking prices and employees' pay, the BOJ may revise up the forecasts and see inflation stay around 2% through fiscal 2025, analysts say. "The BOJ may see scope to tweak YCC as early as June," he said.

But Ueda said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) must also avoid being too late in normalising monetary policy, a sign he will be more open to the idea of tweaking its controversial bond yield control policy than his dovish predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda. "If the BOJ suddenly realises that inflation will stably and sustainably hit 2% and decides to normalise monetary policy, it will have to make very big policy adjustments," Ueda said in an inaugural news conference on Monday. The dollar extended its gains against the yen to hit 133.055 , the highest since April 4, on receding expectations of a near-term tweak to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. PRICE TRENDS HOLD KEYIf the BOJ sees that it can achieve its price target, it might need to normalise monetary policy, Ueda said. But the BOJ must sustain Kuroda's stimulus programme for the time being, including YCC, remarks that diminish the chance of a policy shift at this month's policy meeting.

[1/3] New Governor of Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda waits for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida before their meeting at prime minister?s official residence in Tokyo, Japan, April 10, 2023. "Given high economic uncertainty, the BOJ will communicate closely with the government and guide monetary policy flexibly," Ueda told reporters after meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to receive his official appointment letter. In parliamentary confirmation hearings in February, Ueda has stressed the need to keep ultra-easy policy to ensure Japan sustainably achieves the BOJ's 2% inflation target backed by wage growth. Ueda will chair his first policy meeting on April 27-28, when the board produces fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts extending through fiscal 2025. Ueda served as BOJ board member from 1998 to 2005, during which the central bank introduced zero interest rates and then quantitative easing to combat deflation and economic stagnation.

☆ Factbox: Possible next steps for BOJ policy under new governor
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

ABANDON YIELD TARGETA leadership transition gives the new governor a chance to overhaul his predecessor's policy. Ueda has said YCC was unsuited for minor fine-tuning, suggesting that he could abandon the 10-year yield cap and shift to a policy solely targeting short-term interest rates. One idea would be to widen the band set around the 10-year yield target, now set at 50 basis points on either side. When the BOJ shifted to YCC from a policy targeting the pace of money printing, it used a thorough analysis of its policy framework to justify the shift. Any such move would likely be accompanied by, or come well after, the end of the 10-year yield target.

☆ Japan's new central bank chief assumes office as global risks loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] The Japanese government's nominee for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks during a hearing session at the lower house of the parliament in Tokyo, Japan, February 24, 2023. The 71-year-old academic's term began on Sunday, succeeding Haruhiko Kuroda, whose second, five-year term ended on Saturday. Ueda and his two deputy governors, Shinichi Uchida and Ryozo Himino, will hold a joint news conference at 1015 GMT on Monday. Japan's long-stagnant inflation and wage growth are showing budding signs of change. Ueda served as BOJ board member from 1998 to 2005, during which the central bank introduced zero interest rates and then quantitative easing to combat deflation and economic stagnation.

☆ Ex-BOJ deputy governor Nakaso predicts tweak or end to YCC, Nikkei reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"The increasing side-effects are a sign the policy effect (of YCC) is working its way through the economy," Nakaso said. "When the appropriate timing comes, the BOJ's new leadership will likely modify or abolish YCC," or yield curve control. The next challenge will be to end negative interest rates and start a full-fledged policy normalisation, Nakaso said. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and caps the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to sustainably hit 2% inflation. Nakaso, who had been considered among candidates to succeed Kuroda, served as deputy BOJ governor for five years until 2018.

☆ Kuroda less dovish as he departs BOJ after decade of massive stimulus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, May 27, 2021. Haruhiko Kuroda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), at the central bank's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, May 27, 2021. Kuroda was not the first BOJ chief to attempt to influence public perceptions with monetary easing. When allusions to Peter Pan and spacecraft failed, the BOJ shifted to a defensive, long-term approach in 2016 with the introduction of yield curve control (YCC). "The BOJ's failure to change public expectations raises a lot of questions about the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy."

TOKYO, April 7 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) should be cautious about changing its unconventional monetary policy for now, given financial market uncertainty due to problems in Western banks, former top financial diplomat Takehiko Nakao told Reuters in an interview. Nakao made the comments amid speculation the BOJ may abandon its yield curve control policy when new Governor Kazuo Ueda takes over incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term ends on April 8. U.S. bank failures and the buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS last month have driven financial market risk aversion. Nakao said the BOJ must carefully monitor market developments, for now, although credit anxiety was unlikely to morph into anything like the 2008/09 global financial crisis. "Yet, the BOJ cannot continue unconventional monetary policy, including ETF and REIT purchases and YCC, indefinitely.

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