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☆ Homebuilder sentiment drops for the 12th straight month, but a bottom may be near
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Homebuilders were less confident about their business in December, but they are starting to see potential green shoots. Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market dropped two points to 31 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. This is the 12th straight month of declines and the lowest reading since mid 2012, with the exception of a very brief drop at the start of the Covid pandemic. Regionally, sentiment was strongest in the Northeast and weakest in the West, where prices are highest. The NAHB continues to blame high mortgage rates, which despite the recent drop are still about twice what they were a year ago.

The decision came after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by an expected 50 basis points on Wednesday and said it would deliver more interest rate hikes next year even as the economy slips towards a possible recession. Taiwan's central bank, at its quarterly monetary policy meeting, raised the benchmark discount rate (TWINTR=ECI) by 12.5 basis points to 1.75%, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll. Governor Yang Chin-long said that, while the bank was still tightening monetary policy, the direction this time was "mild" given the lack of another reserve requirement rise. "For next year's monetary policy, we will focus on stabilising prices," he told reporters. The central bank again cut its 2022 estimate for gross domestic product growth, to 2.91% from its previous forecast of 3.51% in September.

☆ Stocks are set to fall further in 2023, and investors haven't priced in a growth slowdown with inflation set to hammer corporate profits, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The growth slowdown is not yet priced," Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson told CNBC on Thursday about the potentially rough ride lower for the S&P 500 next year. Wilson has been warning of a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023. And the real question is, 'What does that mean about growth?,'" Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, said on CNBC. And that's what's going to determine the winners — it's a stock-picking game." Wilson has projected a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023.

On the heels of Tuesday's lower-than-expected inflation reading, the Federal Reserve is expected to tap the brakes Wednesday on its aggressive rate-raising plan designed to cool price growth in the U.S. economy. In addition to the slower price growth, layoff announcements are mounting. Notably, demand for bonds has increased, reflecting growing interest in more stable returns that are often correlated with slower economic growth. Out with inflation worries, in with recession fearsKey stock market gauges, meanwhile, continue to decline on concerns about flagging corporate earnings. If it was still worried about inflation, then interest rates, energy and banks would all be higher.

☆ Taiwan c.bank will adopt 'appropriate' monetary policy next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TAIPEI, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Taiwan's central bank said on Saturday it will adopt an "appropriate" monetary policy and properly use various tools to promote price stability and help the economy next year. Taiwan's trade-dependent economy is flagging in the face of mounting global economic woes, with its exports last month dropping 13.1% on-year, though inflation, a key central bank concern, has been slowing. It will "adopt an appropriate monetary policy and properly use various monetary policy tools" to "promote price stability and assist in economic success", it said, without elaborating. The central bank will hold its quarterly rate-setting meeting on Thursday. At its meeting next week the central bank will also provide an updated forecast for economic growth this year and next.

☆ UK labour market loses more momentum in November: REC survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Britain's labour market cooled noticeably last month, with demand for staff and pay growth easing, and staff shortages became less acute, a survey showed on Thursday. Hiring of permanent staff declined for a second month running. The survey, watched closely by the Bank of England as leading indicator of the labour market ahead of its interest rate decision next week, matched other signs that the economy is slowing. "A flatter period in the labour market is inevitable in this current economic climate, but demand is being supported by some major underlying factors, including labour shortages and technological change," he added. Last month BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said Britain's "very tight" labour market was a key reason why further interest rate increases were likely.

"Good news on the economy is bad news for inflation, whether that's China opening up or lower gasoline prices." The 10-year's yield rose 9.3 basis points to 3.596%. The 10-year German bund , the bloc's benchmark, rose 1.3 basis points to 1.890%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, and is expected to raise rates by a mere 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points.

☆ U.S. service sector activity picks up in November - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy as it braces for an anticipated recession next year. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Manufacturing activity contracted in November for the first time in 2-1/2 years, the ISM reported last week. In November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

☆ Euro zone likely heading into mild recession - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity declined for a fifth month in November, suggesting the economy was sliding into a mild recession as consumers cut spending amid surging inflation, a survey showed. S&P Global's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone, seen as a good guide to economic health, nudged up to 47.8 in November from October's 23-month low of 47.3, matching a preliminary estimate. "A fifth consecutive monthly falling output signalled by the PMI adds to the likelihood that the euro zone is sliding into recession," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Still, the input and output prices index both fell suggesting inflationary pressures may have already peaked, likely welcome news to policymakers at the European Central Bank. The output prices index was a 3-month low of 62.3.

☆ Expect more choppiness ahead after a week of mixed market signals
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Driving the action were several key economic reports, including the November ADP employment and nonfarm payrolls reports and the October personal spending report. The comments came after a softer-than-expected ADP employment report, but before a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report. With these kinds of mixed signals, expect more market choppiness as investors remain on the hunt for more definitive signs that the Fed is winning its war on inflation and can therefore definitively ease up on their hawkish stance. Initial jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 26 were 225,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the prior week and below expectations of 235,000. Finally, on Friday the all-important nonfarm payrolls report was released, indicating a 263,000 payrolls increase in November, above the 200,000 expected.

As the coronavirus has spread in China, Beijing has imposed prolonged lockdowns in several places. The stringent COVID-19 measures also stoked rare street protests across many cities over the weekend. Reuters GraphicsThe sub-indexes for manufacturing PMI including output, employment and suppliers' delivery times all shrank in November at a faster pace than the month before, the data showed. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Thursday.

Helping to boost prices, U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have dropped by about 7.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 25, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Gasoline inventories rose by about 2.9 million barrels, while distillate stocks were seen rising about 4.0 million barrels, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Thin liquidity and an overall lack of trading volumes towards the year-end could also be propping up the market, according to Virendra Chauhan at Energy Aspects. On the supply side, OPEC+ is likely to keep oil output policy unchanged at a meeting on Sunday, five OPEC+ sources said, although two sources said an additional production cut was also likely to be considered, to support prices. "Oil’s rally ran out of steam after reports that OPEC+ might end up keeping their output steady.

☆ China's Nov factory, services activities fall to 7-month lows on COVID curbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 48.0 against 49.2 in October, the lowest reading in seven months, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Separately, the non-manufacturing PMI, which looks at service sector activity, fell to 46.7 from 48.7 in October, also the lowest reading in seven months. Chinese authorities this month rolled out a flurry of policies to prop up the struggling economy, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and COVID fine-tuning measures, while loosening financing curbs to rescue the property sector. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Thursday.

☆ European markets head for higher open as investors await euro zone inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

European markets are heading for a higher open on Wednesday as regional markets await the latest inflation data from the euro zone in November. Elsewhere overnight, Asia-Pacific shares were mostly higher on Wednesday as the reading for China's November factory activity fell short of expectations, dropping to the lowest reading since April. Chinese health officials on Tuesday announced measures to boost vaccination among the elderly, an indicator seen as important for reopening the economy. When asked if recent unrest would lead to a shift in its zero-Covid policy, they said they were "closely watching the virus" for developments. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures inched up Wednesday morning as investors await a speech later today from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that may give further insight into future interest rate hikes.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence at four-month low; house price growth slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The labor market has remained resilient despite the Federal Reserve's stiff interest rate increases, helping to keep consumer spending and the overall economy afloat. "That tectonic shift in consumer confidence from inflation worries to job concerns is coming though." The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 100.2, the lowest reading since July, from 102.2 in October. Though house prices have came off the record highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic-driven housing market boom, they remain significantly high. A third report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed house prices increased 11.0% in the 12 months through September after advancing 12.0% in August.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence at four-month low; house price inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"However, any potential recession could be short and shallow given the tight labor market and the hint that layoffs may not be as bad as feared." The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 100.2, the lowest reading since July, from 102.2 in October. Lower-income households have borne the brunt of inflation that, before October, was marked by annual consumer prices increasing at rates not seen since the early 1980s. Though house prices have came off the record highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic-driven housing market boom, they remain significantly high. Tight supply will, however, likely keep a floor under house prices.

Meanwhile, the downturn in euro zone business activity eased slightly in November, offering a glimmer of hope the expected recession there may be shallower than feared, but consumers still cut spending amid a cost of living crisis. However, November is the fifth month the index has been below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. But in France activity contracted for the first time since February 2021 as lower new orders weighed on the euro zone's second-biggest economy. Activity in the bloc's dominant services industry declined again, with the headline index matching October's 20-month low of 48.6. Manufacturing activity, particularly hard hit by soaring energy prices and disrupted supply chains, also declined but at a slower pace.

☆ Fed officials see smaller rate hikes coming 'soon,' minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Reflecting statements that multiple officials have made over the past several weeks, the meeting summary pointed to smaller rate hikes coming. Markets widely expect the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to step down to a 0.5 percentage point increase in December, following four straight 0.75 percentage point hikes. The minutes noted that the smaller hikes would give policymakers a chance to evaluate the impact of the succession of rate hikes. Markets expect a few more rate hikes in 2023, taking the funds rate to around 5%, and then possibly some reductions before next year ends. Several Fed officials have said in recent days that they anticipate a likely half-point move in December.

☆ UK PMI sticks near 21-month low as orders weaken
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

PMI readings below 50 represent economic contraction, and economists polled by Reuters had expected the flash PMI to fall again this month to 47.5. IHS Markit said that aside from the pandemic, the UK PMI was now pointing to the biggest quarterly fall in economic output since early 2009, during the global financial crisis, with a drop of 0.4%. The PMI showed new orders fell at the fastest rate since January 2021 and that employment growth had slowed. However, firms reported the weakest inflation pressures in more than a year, although they remained high by historic standards. Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Euro zone downturn eased in Nov but demand still falling - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nov 23 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone business activity eased slightly in November but overall demand continued to decline as consumers cut spending amid a cost of living crisis, a survey showed on Wednesday. However, November is the fifth month the index has been below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. "A further fall in business activity in November adds to the chances of the euro zone economy slipping into recession," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. The services employment index fell to 51.7 from 52.5. The output prices index fell to 63.7 from 66.1, its lowest reading since March 2021.

☆ Philadelphia Fed factory activity index drops unexpectedly
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 17 (Reuters) - A gauge of manufacturing activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region fell unexpectedly this month to its lowest level - outside of the coronavirus pandemic - since 2011 as firms reported continued softness in new orders and a weak outlook. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's monthly manufacturing index fell to negative 19.4 in November from negative 8.7 in October. The new orders index was negative for a sixth straight month, weakening fractionally from October with a current reading of negative 16.2. The six-month outlook index, which has also been consistently negative starting in June, came in at negative 7.1, up from negative 14.9 in October. The gauge of employment showed continued growth in hiring but at its weakest pace since June 2020.

☆ Fed vice chair Brainard: More deliberate, slower rate increases coming 'soon'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —It could soon be time for the Federal Reserve to ease up on its super-sized rate interest hikes, according to the central bank’s number-two policymaker, Vice Chair Lael Brainard. “I think it will probably be appropriate soon to maintain a slower pace of increases,” Brainard said Monday at an event hosted by Bloomberg News in Washington, DC. The Fed has taken the unprecedented step of issuing a series of massive rate hikes in its battle to tame decades-high inflation. At each of its past four meetings, the central bank approved a rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point, raising its benchmark lending rate by 4 percentage points in just nine months. “It makes sense to move through a more deliberate and data-dependent pace as we continue to make sure that there’s restraint that will bring inflation down over time,” she added.

☆ Premarket stocks: Crypto is in crisis. It's not just because of FTX
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —The stunning downfall of FTX, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, sent shockwaves through the crypto universe last week. Sam Bankman-Fried, the 30-year-old crypto titan and chief executive of FTX, watched billions of his fortune evaporate in a bankruptcy filing that shook the trillion-dollar industry to its core. Those efforts mean capital is drying up – and that’s not just bad for crypto but other asset classes including stocks, too. Cryptocurrencies enjoyed huge injections of money during the pandemic era thanks to the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy. “In all, the slowdown in global money growth looks set to continue over the coming year, with some contraction looking likely in the US,” wrote JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a note.

☆ Americans are feeling worse about the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —Consumers were feeling slightly worse about the US economy in November, amid punishing rate hikes and decades-high inflation, according to a closely followed University of Michigan survey released Friday. The preliminary index reading from the monthly Surveys of Consumers showed sentiment fell to 54.7, from 59.9 in October. The survey showed that sentiment slumped both for current economic conditions as well as for those in the near future. The survey also showed that consumers’ inflation expectations for this year and five years out remained relatively unchanged. Final sentiment data for this month will be released Nov. 23.

☆ Japan manufacturers' mood down amid weak yen, global risks - Reuters Tankan
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The monthly poll, which tracks the closely watched tankan quarterly survey of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), found that manufacturers expected their business conditions to improve over the coming three months while service-sector respondents expected little change. Economists estimate the world's number-three economy slowed sharply in the third quarter as yen falls pushed living costs higher and as risk of global slowdown rose. The index is expected to rebound to plus 7 in February after declining for a third month in a row in November. The service-sector index rose five points to plus 20, the best reading since the plus 25 registered in October 2019 shortly before the outbreak of the pandemic, it showed. The index is expected to slip just one point to plus 19 over the coming three months.

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