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Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

☆ 'It's beginning to look a lot like VIX-mas.' What Wall Street's fear gauge is saying right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"It's beginning to look a lot like 'VIX-mas,'" Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, wrote in a note Sunday. Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey on Monday wrote that a low VIX is historically a bad sign for markets entering a new year. .VIX 5Y mountain CBOE Market Volatility Index, 5 years "We think 2024 will be a 'trader's market,' not a buy-and-hold situation," Harvey wrote. "But we ultimately think, you know, beyond that, it's poised to go lower just given the low volatility cycle that's been in place." The question is whether we are entering a new period of low volatility as the norm starting in 2024.

Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG's Krinsky, Wells Fargo's Chris Harvey, Harvey, SPX, Will Tamplin, Tamplin, it's, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, " Wald, Krinsky Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: U.S

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow, Nasdaq Open Higher; What's Next for Berkshire Hathaway
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Investors betting on a soft landing for the U.S. economy received another morsel of good news on Wednesday. Fresh data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a 5.2% annual rate , the fastest quarterly growth rate since late 2021, when the country was listing Covid-19 restrictions. Hopes that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession--and that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates next year --have been rippling through global markets. Stocks are rising in early trading, continuing a weekslong winning streak. Now solidly below 13, the VIX is trading near its lowest levels of this year.

Persons: Charlie Munger, Dow, ”, Salesforce Organizations: Federal, Berkshire Hathaway, Dow industrials, Nasdaq, Gold, Futures Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Waller to Wall St, Fed's on the turn
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. But back in the markets, the Fed's policy pivot was all the rage as Treasury yields and dollar plunged anew. New York Fed chief John Williams said long-term inflation expectations were anchored, reassuring and "remarkably stable". Fed futures now have the first Fed rate cut of a quarter point fully priced for May and 110bps of rate cuts by year-end. Two-year Treasury yields plunged more than 15 basis points to four-month lows of 4.66% on Wednesday, with 10-year yields hitting their lowest since mid-September - a startling drop of more than 75bps in little over a month.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's Munger, Warren Buffett, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Waller, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Powell, Stocks, smartly, Hong, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Andrew Hauser, Blinken, Sergey Lavrov, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Waller . New York Fed, Chicago Fed, HK, Austria's, Holdings, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bank of England, London, Russian, Foods, Intuit, Petco, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Berkshire, Waller ., China, Europe, Vienna, North Macedonia

☆ Stock Market Today: What's Next for Berkshire Hathaway
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell below 4.3% Wednesday, a significant level when considering where it started the month—hovering above 4.8%. This comes a day after a formerly hawkish Fed official endorsed an extended pause on rate moves. Investors are also digesting Tuesday’s death of Berkshire Hathaway titan Charlie Munger . Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Dow industrials and Nasdaq-100 each ticked up modestly. The benchmark S&P 500 is on pace to end November with its best month since July 2022.

Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Dow, Gold, Hang Seng, ” Organizations: Treasury, Fed, Dow industrials, Nasdaq, Futures, Hormel Foods Locations: Europe, Berkshire, Asia, Hong

While emerging market and Asian equities clocked up decent gains on Tuesday, Wall Street struggled to make much headway despite a seemingly constructive market and economic backdrop. The dollar, Treasury yields, and stock market volatility all fell, and U.S. consumer confidence was higher than expected. Fed Governor Christopher Waller - thought to be close to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's thinking on policy - also signaled that U.S. interest rates could be cut in the months ahead. Thailand's central bank is also expected to keep rates on hold, at 2.50%, through the middle of 2025. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- New Zealand interest rate decision- Thailand interest rate decision- Australia inflationBy Jamie McGeever Editing byOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Issei Kato, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell's, That's, Michele Bullock, Jamie McGeever Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Wall, Treasury, Fed, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of New, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, New Zealand, Thailand, Australia, U.S, Thailand's, Zealand

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow Opens Slightly Higher; PPD Stock, Gold Price in Focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

But the IPO market is heating up: Fast-fashion giant Shein filed Monday for what could be one of the biggest market debuts in years. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were modestly higher, while the Dow industrials rose 0.3%. Benchmark Treasury yields slipped. Oil prices rose. U.S. home prices rose in September.

Persons: Shein, Carlyle Organizations: OPEC, Nasdaq, Dow, Micron, Treasury, Brent

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The rebound in equities in November has brought the S&P 500 (.SPX) close to its highest intra-day level this year. "We are headed for a mixed session today...maybe something like profit taking at the beginning and then just a leveling off."U.S. The S&P 500 retail sector (.SPXRT), housing Amazon, rose 0.5%. The S&P index recorded 7 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 34 new highs and 18 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Elliott, Peter Cardillo, Jerome Powell, advancers, Shristi Achar, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Spartan Capital Securities, Walmart, Reuters, Fed, Dow Jones, Crown, Elliott Investment Management, GE HealthCare, UBS, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks stall after VIX hits pre-COVID low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. As U.S. markets return in earnest from the long Thanksgiving weekend, Friday's shortened session threw up a remarkable milestone. Ten-year Treasury yields hovered just under 4.50% first thing, about 10 basis points up from Wednesday's intraday low. Deutsche Bank on Monday said it expected a whopping 175bp of Fed rate cuts in 2024 as a mild recession there hits - leaving the policy rate at just 3.63% at yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Friday's, Jerome Powell, MSCI's, Christine Lagarde, Bernadette Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Global, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Property, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Chaoyang Public Security, Health, Beijing, Exchange, Reuters, Beijing Stock Exchange, Dallas Fed, . Treasury, Central Bank, Sciences, Share, Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, yearend, Asia, European, Gaza, Beijing

☆ Wells Fargo unveils 2024 target, warns of 'really, really sloppy' first half for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Wells Fargo Securities is officially out with its 2024 stock market forecast. The second half will be better, but the first half is going to be really, really sloppy." In his official 2024 outlook note, Harvey told clients to brace for a "trader's market" instead of a "buy-and-hold situation." We've seen the equity market pull back, and it's just not a great setup into 2024," Harvey added. He warns the higher cost of capital is an additional market problem because it prevents multiples from going higher.

Persons: Chris Harvey, CNBC's, Harvey, it's Organizations: Wells Fargo Securities Locations: Wells Fargo

A screen showing the Hang Seng stock index is seen outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. The VIX index of S&P 500 implied volatility - the so-called Wall Street 'fear index' - closed at 12.46 on Friday, its lowest close since January 2020. Three central banks in the Asia & Pacific region hold policy meetings this week. Like Bank Indonesia last week, the central banks of New Zealand, South Korea and Thailand are all expected to leave key rates unchanged. But, broadly speaking, no further tightening from the Fed gives central banks in Asia a bit more breathing room.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, People's Bank of, MSCI's, Emerging, Bank Indonesia, U.S . Federal, Fed, PPI, U.S, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Israel, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, Australia, India, Japan, People's Bank of China, MSCI's Asia, Asia

☆ Morning Bid: Giving thanks you're not in China stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. A four-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas appeared to be holding shakily on Friday with no major reports of attacks, although both sides were accused of violations. The decline marked yet another investor shrug at reports of further official moves to shore up China's ailing property sector. In Europe, data showed Germany's economy shrank slightly in the third quarter, confirming an initial estimate of a 0.1% fall. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, shrug, didn't, Christian Lindner, Geert Wilders, Luis de Guindos, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Stock, Mainland Properties, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Finance, Britain's Barclays, Central Bank, Bank of Spain, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, Israel, OPEC, United States, Friday's, Beijing, Taiwan, China, Europe, British

☆ Morning Bid: AI buzzes but market shrugs at Nvidia beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly before the closing bell as the market takes a significant dip in New York, U.S., February 25, 2020. Remarkably, Nvidia managed to vault the sky-high bar for quarterly earnings, revenue and projections yet again in its latest update overnight. Bond volatility (.MOVE) has also fallen to two-month lows, while currency market 'vol' (.DBCVIX) is plumbing 20-month lows. CONCERN OVER HOME SALES, HOLIDAY SEASON SALESNews of a drop in U.S. existing home sales last month to a 13-year low was perhaps as important as the Fed minutes - as was warnings from more major U.S. retailers, this time Best Buy and Nordstrom, about sticky holiday season sales and the need for discounting. The dollar (.DXY) was a touch higher on Wednesday, meantime, with most overseas stock markets firmer too.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, thrall, OpenAI, Sam Altman, Changpeng Zhao, October's, Jeremy Hunt's, underperformed, Jeremy Hunt, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Nvidia, Federal, Nordstrom, University of Michigan, Bank of Canada, Treasury, Deere, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Gaza, China, yearend, York, Beijing

☆ Morning Bid: Thanksgiving starters of AI and oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Thanksgiving may make for a clipped U.S. markets week, but there's plenty to chew on around the world before then - and a feast of intrigue in the artificial intelligence space. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso and dollarizing the economy and slashing spending with potentially painful reforms. The risk premium between German and Italian 10-year yields tightened to 170 bps - the lowest since Sept. 21.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Sam Altman, That's, thrall, Javier Milei, Milei, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Bailey ,, Francois Villeroy de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Big Tech, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank, Bayer, Federal Reserve Bank of England, Andrew Bailey , Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Technologies, Keysight Technologies, Holdings Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, OPEC, Tokyo, Europe, Canada, Francois Villeroy de Galhau

☆ Hefty options 'disaster hedges' draw buyers as US stocks extend rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. Some 100,000 January call options on the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX) changed hands on Friday, with a strike price of 27. Similarly large positions in January VIX options were opened on Wednesday and Thursday. The recent large trades, however, are more likely hedges on a portfolio of stocks, rather than wagers on a massive equity selloff, options strategists said. The trades are unusually large and make up about 5% of this month's overall trading volume in VIX options, according to Trade Alert data.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Matthew Tym, Cantor Fitzgerald, Tym, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Susquehanna Financial Group, Federal, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Treasury yields dive as oil craters, economy softens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. two-year Treasury yields skidded below 4.80% on Friday for the first time since September 1, with 10-year yields dropping under 4.40% to September lows too. Crude has now lost almost 25% in just six weeks - aided by the U.S. gradually lifting oil sanctions on Venezuela. The Labor Department said import prices fell a whopping 0.8% in October, the most in seven months amid a broad decline in the costs of goods - deepening the annual deflation of import prices to as much as 2.0%. Even though the dollar (.DXY), , is taking a hit from the plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, the drop in sovereign borrowing rates was mirrored across the world in Europe , even Japan . Mirroring the softening demand picture elsewhere, British retail sales volumes fell unexpectedly in October as stretched consumers stayed at home.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, plumb, Morgan, Susan Collins, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Dave Ramsden, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Walmart, Cisco, Alibaba, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Treasury, Hong, Housing, Atlanta, Boston Federal, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Bank of England, United States, APEC, Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Wall, Alibaba ., Venezuela, Europe, Japan, HK, Hong Kong, China, San Francisco

Rather, asset managers increasingly position these as now a feature of global investing choices rather than all-consuming shocks per se. Likely for the same reason, geopolitical risk monitors are at their highest in over 18 months too. Ebbing demand from a Chinese economy hobbled by property busts and a foreign investment withdrawal due to U.S. investment curbs also hurts. The VIX (.VIX) index of U.S. stock volatility is currently five points below its historic average 19 - and even July VIX futures hover on that mean. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for ReutersReporting by Mike Dolan Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: there's, Washington's, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, What's, Melissa Brown, Axioma, Andrew McCaffery, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Barclays, Global CIO, Fidelity, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Israel, United States, India, Taiwan, Mexico, Britain, Gaza, Russia, China, Wall

☆ Morning Bid: Sidestepping Moody's rating twist
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. It's the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the U.S. Treasury as Fitch lowered its rating in August and S&P removed its AAA in 2011. On one level, there's some relief the AAA rating was maintained despite the darker outlook. And that would at least keep the Federal Reserve at bay despite its warnings last week that another rate hike was still on the table. Line chart with data from LSEG Eikon show the U.S. consumer price index inflation, core CPI inflation and federal funds target rate from Jan. 2019 to Sep. 2023.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Fitch, William Foster, Mike Johnson, China's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Suella Braverman, David Cameron, Lisa Cook, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Tyson, Henry Schein Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, AAA, Reuters, . House, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Tyson Foods, Walmart, Bank of England, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall St, San Francisco, New York

☆ Investors wary of lingering Treasury volatility as US stocks rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - A still-jittery bond market is clouding the outlook for a rally in U.S. stocks, analysts tracking measures of market volatility said. At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index, (.VIX), which measures expectations for stock gyrations, has fallen to a seven-week low of 14.13. That could be a problem if Treasury yields - which move inversely to bond prices - resume a climb that has pressured stocks since the summer. A significant drop in Treasury market volatility would be great news for stock market bulls, Purves said.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Stocks, Alex Kosoglyadov, Michael Purves, Purves, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Paul Simao Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Treasury, Equity, Nomura, Capital, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Oil and bond yields try to find toehold
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. The supply picture for U.S. crude, which is now down more than 20% from late September's peaks, has also weighed on energy prices. Crude inventories increased by 11.9 million barrels over the week to Nov. 3, sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. With senior Fed officials on Wednesday side-stepping guidance on the central bank's next policy steps, attention focuses squarely on Powell's latest speech. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Christine Lagarde, Janet Yellen, Becton Dickinson, Emelia Sithole Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Federal, American Petroleum Institute, Walt Disney, ABC, Warner Bros Discovery, Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed, Louis Interim, European Central Bank, . Treasury, News Corp, Wynn Resorts, U.S, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Europe, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Washington, St, Brussels, Mettler, Toledo, TransDigm

☆ Bearish money manager throws in the towel and buys stocks. Here's what changed his mind on the market.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Here's why Page changed his view on the stock market and started buying equities again. That money could serve as fuel for the next stock market rally if yields fall and investors reconsider their cash allocations. "There are $6 trillion dollars in money market funds right now. The equity risk premium is most compressed it's been in 20 years... Cash yields are higher than earnings yields on stocks," Page explained. With the VIX currently at just below 15, there's no sign of any capitulation in the stock market yet.

Persons: Sebastien Page, Rowe Price, Page, —, Now's Organizations: Service, CNBC

☆ Investors spurn options hedges as U.S. stock rally crushes fear
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Fear has plunged in the U.S. equity market following last week's explosive rally, and some options mavens are urging clients to stock up on portfolio protection while it's cheap. Meanwhile, the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's fear gauge, has tumbled to its lowest level in seven weeks. They recommended taking advantage of the drop in volatility to deploy stock replacement trades, which involve swapping long stock positions for cheap call options that would reap gains if the market continued to rally. Investors' equity positioning fell to a five-month low before last week's rally, Deutsche Bank data showed. With investors less exposed to stocks, "they don't necessarily need to be rushing to get hedges now," Murphy said.

Persons: Matthew Tym, Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor's Tym, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics, Barclays, Treasury, Susquehanna Financial Group, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Santa

☆ Morning Bid: Oil-fueled rally turns to Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. And that's hit home by dragging U.S. pump prices down to levels not seen since March. Overall, U.S. 10-year yields remained on the back foot at 4.57% first thing and ahead of Wednesday's auction. Although Asian and European stocks fell back a bit, Wall St stock futures were unchanged before the bell. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Mike Dolan, who's, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Christopher Waller, BoE, Ping, Donald Trump, White, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Joachim Nagel, Walt Disney, Ralph Lauren, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Wall, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Atlanta, Fed, Chicago Fed, St, Reuters, Ping An Insurance, HK, New York Fed, Warner Bros Discovery, MGM Resorts, Biogen, Energy, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Gaza, Tokyo, Ohio, Kentucky, Brussels, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ S&P 500 returns tend to be measly in the 12 months leading up to a presidential election
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is now only 12 months away, with the primary season set to begin Jan. 15. While every election year brings with it a unique mix of political and macroeconomic conditions, Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategy research team says equity returns tend to be weaker than average in the 12 months leading up to a presidential election. Since 1984, the average S & P 500 return on election years is only 4%, according to Goldman. When looking more broadly from 1932, the S & P 500 has averaged returns of 7% during an election year and 9% outside of election years. "Post-election returns have typically been stronger when the election resulted in a divided government than a unified government, especially in the case of a wave election," Kostin said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Louis, David Kostin, Kostin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Louis Federal, Tech

☆ Morning Bid: Rates buzz sustained before Fed loan data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen about 50bps from October's peaks and the drop last week was the biggest recoil since March. For now, S&P500 futures are pointing to further slight gains on Monday - which if realized on the cash market later would make for the sixth straight gain and the longest daily run since June. Undermined by the retreat in Treasury yields, the dollar (.DXY) slipped back to the lowest since Sept 20. The backdrop of an easier dollar and Treasury yields provides significant relief for emerging markets, with MSCI's emerging market stock index (.MSCIEF) hitting its highest since Sept 20 too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, underscoring, Janet Yellen, Lisa Cook, Huw Pill, Bernadette Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, U.S, Pacific Rim, South, Ryanair, Europe's, Goodyear Tire &, Aspen, Conterra Energy, Constellation Energy, Diamondback Energy, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, NXP Semiconductors, Bank of England, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Gaza, China, Western, San Francisco, South Korean, Asia, Europe, Telesat

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