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India's oil trade, in response to the turmoil of sanctions and the Ukraine war, provides the strongest evidence so far of a shift into other currencies that could prove lasting. MTS had facilitated some Indian oil non-dollar payments, the trade sources said. An Indian refining source said most Russian banks have faced sanctions since the war but Indian customers and Russian suppliers are determined to keep trading Russian oil. "As it is, the government is not asking us to stop buying Russian oil, so we are hopeful that an alternative payment mechanism will be found in case the current system is blocked." Similarly, many banks from Russia have opened accounts with Indian banks to facilitate trade.

☆ Dollar's renewed strength temporary, weakness ahead, FX analysts say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While analysts have been predicting a weaker dollar 12 months out for over five years, their predictions only came true in 2020 when the currency weakened more than 6.5%. There was also no clear consensus among analysts in the poll over dollar positioning, which turned net short dollar last November. Among the remaining 18, a dozen forecast a reversal to net long positions and six predicted an increase in net short positions. Even the British pound , which dropped more than 10% last year, was expected to claw back around half of those losses in 12 months. Sterling was predicted to rise from its latest level of $1.19 to $1.22, $1.23 and $1.26 in the next three, six and 12 months, respectively.

☆ UK home prices to fall, but unlikely to come crashing down
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

After years of bumper price rises, the average cost of a home will fall 2.4% this year, according to the Feb. 15-27 poll of 19 housing market experts, shallower than the 4.7% fall predicted in a November poll. "House prices will fall in 2023, that is for sure. Because the number one variable for showing the direction of the housing market is employment - and that remains very, very good indeed." In November's poll, they were expected to fall 7.0% this year and flatline in 2024. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Jonathan Cable; polling by Aditi Verma and Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan; editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Toronto stocks seen up 6.2% by year-end, despite 'wall of worry'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Equity markets have exhibited remarkable resilience, climbing a wall of worry toward higher common stock prices," said Brandon Michael, senior investment analyst at ABC Funds. "The main drivers toward higher stock prices include decelerating inflation, central banks easing up on their monetary policy tightening efforts, and improving investor risk appetite." Canada's annual rate of inflation cooled to 5.9% in January after peaking at 8.1% in June, data on Tuesday showed. The energy and materials sectors combined account for about 30% of the Toronto market's weighting. (Other stories from the Reuters Q1 global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Fergal Smith; additional polling by Aditi Verma, Milounee Purohit and Mumal Rathore; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ S&P 500 index seen climbing 5% by end of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 was expected to end 2023 at 4,200 points, which would amount to a 9.4% increase for the calendar year, according to the median forecast of 42 strategists polled by Reuters. After falling 19.4% in 2022, the S&P 500 index is up 4.1% for the year so far. S&P valuations have fallen but still above 20-year averageAs of Feb. 17, Wall Street's expectation for S&P earnings growth for 2023 has fallen to 1.6% from an expected 4.4% on Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. But while Sandven's year-end S&P 500 target doesn't depend on interest rate cuts he said "it does depend on moderating inflation and improved earnings visibility". Strategists had expected the Dow to end 2023 at 36,500, according to a November poll.

☆ S&P 500 index seen climbing 5% by end of 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Morgan Stanley ups 2023 oil demand growth estimate by 36%, flags Russia risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 22 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley has raised its global oil demand growth estimate for this year by about 36%, citing growing momentum in China's reopening and a recovery in aviation, but flagged higher supply from Russia as an offseting factor. Global oil consumption is now expected to increase by about 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), versus its previous 1.4 million bpd forecast, the bank said in a note dated Tuesday. "Mobility indicators for China, such as congestion, have been rising steadily," while "flight schedules have firmed-up the outlook for jet fuel demand," the bank said. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs cut its 2023 Brent price forecast and raised its global supply forecasts for 2023 and 2024, with Russia, Kazakhstan and the United States the most notable upward adjustments. But Goldman also noted that a 1.1 million bpd rise in Chinese demand this year should push oil markets back into a deficit in June.

☆ Japan's Nikkei seen hitting 30,000 by end of 2023 on economic recovery: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Japanese companies will issue their outlook for 2023 by May, which will be based on the current macro environment. So the forecast will be conservative," said Hikaru Yasuda, chief equity strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities. "But as the environment is not as bad as companies (now) expect, they will slowly raise their forecast towards the end of the year." "Companies whose businesses are linked with China are expected to perform well," said Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist and fund manager, T&D Asset Management. "Japanese equities are undervalued due to caution for the currency movement," said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.

☆ India's Russian oil imports surge to a record in January - trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Nidhi Verma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Russian oil accounts for 27% of India's January oil importsIndia imports from Russia hit record in JanuaryRussia, India's top oil supplier in January, then Iraq, SaudiNEW DELHI, Feb 17 (Reuters) - India's Russian oil imports climbed to a record 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up 9.2% from December, with Moscow still the top monthly oil seller to New Delhi, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, data from trade sources showed. India's oil imports typically rise in December and January as state-run refiners avoid maintenance shutdowns in the first quarter to meet their annual production targets fixed by the government. Last month India's imports of Russian Sokol crude oil were the highest so far at 100,900 bpd, as output from the Sakhalin 1 field resumed under a new Russian operator, the data showed. India's Iraqi oil imports in January rose to a seven-month high of 983,000 bpd, up 11% from December, the data showed. India's oil importsIndia's oil imports from various regionsReporting by Nidhi Verma; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Writers are worried ChatGPT will steal their jobs. Experts offered 3 reasons why this is unlikely — and even ChatGPT itself agrees.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

They offered three reasons why it's unlikely that ChatGPT will replace them in the future. Although ChatGPT might bring some changes to the workplace, here are three reasons why it's unlikely to replace you. Empathy is another skill ChatGPT doesn't have because we have "a higher order way of thinking about things," Jacobson said. ChatGPT can't beat Google's spam policiesCompanies that publish content written by ChatGPT or other AI tools are likely to be penalized by Google's unbeatable spam policies. "For now, the role of ChatGPT and other AI models in content creation is to augment and assist human content creators, rather than to replace them."

☆ Analysis: Oil rebound more likely this year, $100 a barrel possible, OPEC sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

OPEC and OPEC+ do not publish oil price forecasts and do not have a price target. Officials and ministers from OPEC and OPEC+, are often reluctant to discuss the direction of prices on the record. Reuters spoke privately to five more OPEC country officials about the prospect of $100 oil. The IEA, which represents 31 countries including top consumer the United States, did not immediately reply on Friday to a request for comment on what $100 oil would mean for its members. In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk for the global economy.

The company already has a presence in both continents through stakes in projects in Mozambique, Brazil and Venezuela among others. "It's better to invest in bigger hot spots where you can get larger discoveries... Africa and Latin America still hold a lot of potential. Some of the hydrocarbon assets in Africa and Latin America hold large volumes, he said, adding his company is also looking for assets in southeast Asia and Middle East. OVL currently has a stake in 32 oil & gas projects in 15 countries, spanning projects in various phases, including exploration, development, producing and pipelines. Gupta said current production at Sakhalin 1 is about 150,000 barrels per day and the production would rise to 200,000 bpd by June.

☆ Ghana seeks Indian investment in oil and gas sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Companies Aker ASA FollowBENGALURU, India, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Ghana, which is struggling with its worst economic crisis in a generation, is seeking Indian investment in its oil and gas sector, William Owuraku Aidoo, its deputy minister of energy, said on Wednesday. "There are some opportunities in Ghana specially in the oil and gas front. We have some oil blocks available and we came here hoping to attract Indian investments," Aidoo told Reuters after a meeting with Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri at India Energy Week. He said Ghana will award exploration licences through direct negotiations if Indian companies are interested. Apart from offering exploration opportunities, Ghana is also seeking Indian support to build refineries of about 300,000 barrels per day.

"Judging by the customs statistics, some of the benefit was captured by refiners in India and China, but the main beneficiaries must be oil shippers, intermediaries and the Russian oil companies," he added. As a further complication, some Russian oil grades, including Pacific grade ESPO, are also worth more than Urals. After decades of low profits or losses, sections of the global shipping industry are enjoying a financial boom from moving Russian oil. A year ago, a similar journey would have cost a seller of Russian oil $0.5-$1.0 million depending on shipping rates. Nayara is 49%-owned by Russian state oil major Rosneft, run by Putin's ally Igor Sechin, meaning some of the profits are indirectly captured by Russia.

☆ Iran OPEC official sees oil rebounding to $100/bbl in H2
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Nidhi Verma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BENGALURU, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Global oil prices may rebound to about $100 per barrel in the second half this year as Chinese demand recovers while supply remains limited, Iran's OPEC representative Afshin Javan said on Wednesday. "I think OPEC is moving in right direction," Javan told reporters on the sidelines of the India Energy Week, referring to the group's decision in December to cut production. "Why OPEC did it was because it was not very optimistic about the demand side," Javan said. Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) although its oil exports are subjected to U.S. sanctions aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear programme. On Monday, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais also defended the group's decision to cut production, adding that the move helped stabilise global oil markets.

☆ India's stock market crisis isn't just the Adani Group's problem — it's a political issue for Prime Minister Modi too
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Indian tycoon Gautam Adani's companies have lost over $110 billion in market value since a US short seller attack in January. Even Modi has been dragged into the kerfuffle — since both he and Adani are from the western Indian state of Gujarat. The prime minister's political opponents say that the leader favors Adani — a claim the Modi government has rejected, per Reuters. "The Hindenburg scandal is the perfect weapon for the Indian political opposition against PM Modi. On its part, the Adani Group has been troubleshooting hard.

☆ UK energy support schemes' cost halved as mild winter tames prices - NAO
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In the interest of speed, it chose to role out universal support, granting 400 pounds this winter to each household regardless of need. It also capped average domestic energy bills at 2,500 pounds a year until March 31 and at 3,000 pounds until April 2024. When the scheme was first launched the government had said average bills would be capped at 2,500 pounds a year until April 2024. Last month, Britain announced plans to scale back energy subsidies for businesses for the next financial year by about 85% to 5.5 billion pounds. Without the government measures average household energy bills were set to rise more than 170% to over 3,500 pound this winter from a year earlier.

[1/2] A VLCC oil tanker is seen at a crude oil terminal in Ningbo Zhoushan port, Zhejiang province, China May 16, 2017. REUTERS/StringerBENGALURU, India, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Oil producers may have to reconsider their output policies following a demand recovery in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, the International Energy Agency's Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Sunday. "We expect about half of the growth in global oil demand this year will come from China," Birol told Reuters on the sidelines of the India Energy Week conference. He added that China's jet fuel demand is exploding, putting upward pressure on demand. OPEC+ rolled over the group's current output policy at a meeting on Wednesday, leaving production cuts agreed last year in place.

☆ Factbox: G7-led coalition sets price cap on Russian oil products
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Envisioned as a safety valve from the EU ban, which covers insuring and shipping Russian oil and therefore risks snarling the entire global trade, the price cap mechanisms would allow such services provided they occur below an enforced price. The price caps on petroleum products will be implemented on Feb. 5 or "very soon thereafter," the coalition said in a statement. WHAT IS PROHIBITEDThe EU ban bars EU vessels from carrying Russian-origin petroleum products, unless the products are purchased at or below the price cap agreed by the coalition. NEXT STEPSThe G7 coalition said it would review the Dec. 5 crude oil price cap in March. Decisions on any changes would be driven by technical analysis by groups such as the International Energy Agency, while factoring in the impact on Russian oil revenues.

☆ Exclusive: Indian refiners pay traders in dirhams for Russian oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Nidhi Verma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Previous attempts by Indian refiners to pay traders for Russian crude in dirhams through Dubai banks failed, forcing them to switch back to the U.S. currency. Indian refiners typically buy Russian crude from traders at a price that includes delivery to India. An invoice for such a deal seen by Reuters showed traders asking for an average crude price including freight for Urals crude. Indian refiners mostly buy Russian crude from Dubai-based traders including Everest Energy and Litasco, a unit of Russian oil major Lukoil (LKOH.MM). India's oil secretary Pankaj Jain last month said Indian companies were not facing any problems in paying for Russian oil as the latest actions by the West do not impact the trade settlement mechanism.

☆ Factbox: EU embargo, price cap target Russian oil products
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The measure follows an earlier EU embargo on Russian seaborne crude in which the bloc, the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy countries and Australia set a crude price cap at $60 per barrel from Dec. 5. Below are the main elements of how the embargo on Russian refined products is supposed to work:PRICE CAPThe level of price cap for Russian oil products has yet to be determined, but the European Commission suggested a $100 a barrel ceiling on Russian diesel, which trades at a premium to crude, and a $45 a barrel cap on discounted products such as fuel oil. Applying the price ceiling is likely to be complicated by the variety and quality of oil products targeted and will therefore be more intricate than the Dec. 5 crude price cap. The provision also applies to companies that provide technical, brokering or financial assistance such as insurance for cargoes carrying Russian refined products. WHAT IS ALLOWEDThe ban will not apply if the petroleum products are purchased at or below the oil price cap agreed by the EU.

☆ India earmarks $3.7 bln for state oil companies' energy transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Nidhi Verma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, Feb 1 (Reuters) - India said on Wednesday it would provide 300 billion Indian rupees ($3.66 billion) to help state-run oil refiners move towards cleaner energy, a step aimed at helping the country achieve its 2070 net-zero carbon emission target. "We are implementing many programmes for green fuel, green energy, green farming, green mobility, green buildings, and green equipment, and policies for efficient use of energy across various economic sectors," Sitharaman said. The budget also allocated 50 billion rupees for crude purchases for its strategic oil stockpile. India had released oil from its strategic reserves as part of the US-coordinated programme to calm the global oil prices. ($1 = 81.9225 Indian rupees)($1 = 81.8780 Indian rupees)Reporting by Nidhi Verma; Editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] People wait for their turn to get fuel at a petrol station in Peshawar, Pakistan January 30, 2023. If we don't have LCs (letters of credit) open right now, we might see shortages in the next fortnight," a senior official at one of the oil companies told Reuters. Oil traders, however, are shunning countries such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka due to an acute shortfall of foreign exchange. State-owned refiner Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Pakistan LNG Ltd have left a flurry of fuel tenders unawarded in the last couple of months. Pakistan bought only 223,000 tonnes of gasoline in December versus 608,000 tonnes in the same period a year earlier, data from Kpler showed.

☆ Two Indian Air Force jets crash - officials
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI Jan 28 (Reuters) - Two Indian Air Force fighter jets crashed in Madhya Pradesh state and the neighbouring desert state of Rajasthan, local officials said on Saturday. "I can confirm that two aircraft belonging to the Indian Air Force crashed in our jurisdiction," said A. K. Verma, a local administrator in Madhya Pradesh state. The status of the third crew member wasn't immediately clear, while no details were released on the crew of the second plane. Verma said defence ministry officials were heading to the crash site. Officials in the federal defence ministry said they were gathering details from the Rajasthan crash site and a team has been rushed to the location from the nearest Air Force stations.

☆ European Central Bank to raise deposit rate to 3.25% by mid-year - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ECB President Christine Lagarde and her Governing Council will take the deposit rate to 2.50% on Feb. 2, said 55 of 59 economists in the Jan. 13-20 poll. The central bank will then add 25 basis points next quarter before pausing, giving a terminal rate in the current cycle of 3.25%, its highest since late 2008. In December's poll, the rate was put at 2.50% at end-March and was seen topping out at 2.75%. Reuters Poll - ECB deposit rate outlookAsked how the risks were skewed to their terminal deposit rate forecasts, over two-thirds of respondents, 23 of 33, said it was more likely it ends higher rather than lower than they currently expect. The refinancing rate was expected to rise 50 basis points to 3.00% next week and reach a peak of 3.50% in March.

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