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☆ China reluctantly keeps sanctions powder dry
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yet most trade measures Xi has taken so far are best seen as defensive tactics to protect market share from aspirant rivals in the West and India. The easiest option is picking on America’s $120-billion-plus of direct investment stock in China. Of course, that is no way for China to revive the decaying quantity and quality of the investment it receives. Chinese officials consistently say they welcome U.S. trade and investment and there is no reason to doubt them. The move comes after the United States implemented multiple restrictions on sales of chipmaking tools and components to China.

☆ Buffet breaks out of Japan’s value trap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, April 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) has upped its stake in iconic Japanese trading houses, according to an interview boss Warren Buffett gave the Nikkei newspaper on Tuesday. Worries that the nonagenarian was walking into Japan’s infamous “value trap” now look overwrought. The rise in global interest rates and the popping of the tech bubble have pushed funds back into the boring nuts and bolts companies Buffett loves. Given that the trading houses are themselves Berkshire-like investors, Buffett says he is open to doing deals with them, and investing more in Japan. The hedge funds and activist investors who have been banging their heads against Japan Inc might watch what Buffett does next.

☆ Temasek hospital deal channels its Dr Resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, April 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Temasek is picking a good time to focus on health. The sovereign investor is taking control of Indian hospital operator Manipal for $2 billion. Others are on an Indian health drive too. Follow @anshumandaga on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSSingapore’s Temasek will buy an additional 41% stake in Manipal Health Enterprises, the unlisted Indian hospital chain said on April 10. After the deal closes, the Pai family’s Manipal Group will hold about 30% of Manipal Health.

☆ Rich countries and India should cut a climate pact
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Emissions from the world’s most populous country are only 7% of greenhouse gases but are growing fast while those produced by rich countries have largely peaked. To do so, it will need policies that incentivise green investment, including accelerating its plans for carbon pricing. Rich countries can also help, even at a time when their budgets are stretched. India could then be much more ambitious in its transition plan and the G7 and other rich countries could mobilise funds, focussing on key bottlenecks. But if the central government comes up with a solution, rich countries could help fund it.

☆ China investment drowns out decoupling rhetoric
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, April 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - International companies are reinforcing President Xi Jinping’s message that China is open for business. Japan Display’s (6740.T) shares soared 21% on Monday after the Apple (AAPL.O) supplier said it would provide its OLED technology to China’s HKC. And Europe’s Airbus (AIR.PA) just moved to double capacity in China, agreeing to push ahead with a second China assembly line despite failing to win any new orders during French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent state visit. The new commitments provide a reminder that multinational companies are making – and want to make more – money in the People’s Republic. At least some of the decoupling rhetoric is being drowned out.

☆ How Modi can grab India’s geopolitical “moment”
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Hugo Dixon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

India is in a geopolitical sweet spot because of growing tension between the United States and China. The hard-nosed realpolitik view is that this doesn’t matter as India and the United States have a common threat. This matters for India’s economic future, as geopolitical considerations are increasingly driving global commerce. The United States is encouraging this process through what it calls “friendshoring”. Modi can do a lot to make the most of India’s geopolitical opportunity.

☆ Alibaba hands parched dealmakers a glass half-full
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Then New York- and Hong Kong-listed Alibaba (9988.HK) revealed it was creating six independently run businesses. That will keep dealmaking teams busy for months if, as CEO Daniel Zhang envisions, multiple listed companies emerge from the $250 billion parent. And if a breakup is good for Alibaba, they can dust off pitchbooks for its domestic rivals. Follow @AntonyMCurrie on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSAlibaba CEO Daniel Zhang said on March 29 that he hopes multiple listed companies will emerge from the group. “I hope there will be multiple listed companies emerging from the Alibaba system, and that they will continue to nurture their own sons and daughters, and cultivate more listed companies”, Zhang said, according to the South China Morning Post.

☆ US corporates and China hug awkwardly in Beijing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The final quarter saw a slight rebound, but American FDI into China has been slowing for years. Despite their suspicions of the U.S. government, Chinese officials don’t want American capitalists to stop investing in the country because their firms create jobs, bring technology and best practices. Anecdotal evidence suggests even in harmless industries like textiles and market research, decoupling is becoming the default American investment thesis. If China surprises by dramatically boosting internal demand, U.S. executives and their shareholders will be placated. Cook is in Beijing to attend the China Development Forum, a flagship investment conference organised by the government and held March 25-27.

HONG KONG, March 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Time may be on Richard Li’s side. By cobbling together acquisitions, Li has built a brand to sell life insurance across Hong Kong, Japan and Southeast Asia. The value of new business – a measure of the present value of future earnings from policies signed - rose around 30%. Follow @KatrinaHamlin on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSAsian insurer FWD has made a fresh application for a Hong Kong listing, according to stock exchange filings published on March 13. A first attempt to go public in Hong Kong in 2021 was refused owing to concern over its dual-class shares.

☆ Credit Suisse reinforces Japan’s offshore anxiety
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, March 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The crisis at Credit Suisse has traders wondering who’s next. Japanese lenders, with their staid depositor bases, look like unlikely targets for bank runs. Yet the rising cost of short-term dollar and euro credit, combined with extreme yen volatility, have made hedging much more expensive. Domestic commercial lenders alone held $600 billion of international debt securities at the end of 2022, and some look overexposed. Take Japan Post Bank (7182.T), a $32 billion institution whose parent is partly owned by the Ministry of Finance.

☆ Water’s big moment risks getting lost in the weeds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The latest is research published last Thursday by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water. The sum, though, is just $140 million, and the U.S. government’s International Development Finance Corporation is pouring in three-quarter of the proceeds. But there is a decent investment case for water without state or supranational support. Without them, water’s big moment risks getting lost in the weeds. Follow @AntonyMCurrie on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSThe United Nations 2023 Water Conference starts on March 22, World Water Day, in New York.

☆ Middle East pivot to Asia is strategic this time
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Xi Jinping has brokered a deal the United States would have found hard to secure, despite its traditional military influence in the Middle East. The Middle East has trained its financial sights on Asia before. At current rates of growth, emerging Asia will become the top trade partner for the Gulf countries by 2028, per Asia House, surpassing advanced economies. As U.S.-China relations continue to sour, the Asian financial centre is looking to the Middle East to find new foreign companies to trade in the territory. Delegations from the two Middle East countries held talks in Beijing between March 6 and 10, the statement added.

☆ Cathay’s people problem is Hong Kong’s too
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, March 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Cathay Pacific (0293.HK) may be a high-flying reminder of the Asian finance hub’s pandemic-induced isolation for longer than anyone wants. It promises a swift reversal on a HK$6.5 billion ($834 million) net loss for 2022 Cathay reported on Wednesday. The company has close to 2,405 pilots, roughly 63% of pre-pandemic numbers, according to a survey conducted in March by the Hong Kong Aircrew Officers Association and seen by Breakingviews. That makes Cathay’s people problem Hong Kong’s too. Cathay Pacific carried 1.03 million passengers in January 2023, up from 24,699 last year.

☆ China gives itself easy GDP homework
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, March 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China aims to grow GDP by “around 5%” in 2023, which might seem low given last year’s 3% marked the country’s weakest performance in decades. Chen Long of Plenum China notes that the annual work report, usually an important window into the economy and official priorities for the year ahead, dedicates only six pages to discussing the future, compared to 22 pages last year. That may be because Premier Li Keqiang, who gives the work report, is on his way out along with other reformers. By keeping goals conservative and methods vaguer than usual, the government makes it harder for newcomers to fail. The government is aiming for a 2023 budget deficit target of 3% of gross domestic product, according to the report, widening from a deficit goal of around 2.8% last year.

☆ Adani contrarian is a win for Hindenburg, too
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

GQG Partners is snapping up shares in four of the Indian tycoon’s nine core companies, including the flagship Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS), along with Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS), Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSE.NS) and Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS). The mogul was trying to do just that last month with a $2.5 billion Adani Enterprise share sale before it was scuppered by Hindenburg’s sortie. Barring something truly exceptional, the scars of Hindenburg’s successful attack on Adani will linger for a while. GQG bought shares in Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Green Energy, Adani Transmission and Adani Enterprises from entities owned by the Adani family. Adani has dismissed the allegations outlined in U.S. fund Hindenburg Research’s Jan. 24 report.

☆ Hong Kong’s office landlords face a tough rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, March 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong offices are emptier than in other Asian financial centres. Singapore and Tokyo boast rates well under half of Hong Kong’s level, and figures there are either improving or roughly unchanged. Last year, mainland-based companies accounted for less than 6% of all leases in Hong Kong’s key Central business district, from nearly 30% in 2019. Hong Kong’s economy shrunk for three of the last four years, and its population is slimming too. However, the plan to reduce its office footprint may not apply to Hong Kong, a person familiar with the situation told Breakingviews.

☆ Airtel would be a complex saviour for Paytm
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

An investment from tycoon Sunil Bharti Mittal would deliver a timely vote of confidence in the loss-making Indian financial technology darling whose Chinese investors are exiting. Currently it only has a payments bank licence, so it can accept deposits but not lend. New shareholders might also help ease an ongoing regulatory freeze on Paytm accepting deposits from new customers. He is seeking a stake in Paytm by merging his financial services unit – Airtel Payments Bank – into Paytm’s comparable unit, and wants to buy shares in its parent too from other holders, per Bloomberg. Mittal seeks to fold Airtel Payments Bank into Paytm Payments Bank in a stock deal and is also seeking to buy Paytm shares from other holders, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.

☆ Japan Post’s deal will test interest rate optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Feb 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The $12 billion triple initial public offering of the Japan Post Group by the government in 2015 was done in the name of economic efficiency. After a brief rally, the collective market value of the three companies it comprises has declined from a peak of 18 trillion yen to below 10 trillion yen, per Datastream. The Ministry of Finance holds over a third of Japan Post Holdings (6178.T), which in turn retains big stakes in the banking and insurance units – although it has trimmed the latter to below 50%. Japan Post Holdings plans to unload shares worth up to $9.3 billion, Reuters reported, reducing its stake to below 65%. It’s a huge deal in a rickety market but the prospect of interest rate normalisation could see more investment into domestic banks – Japan Post Bank shares have rallied this year alongside local peers.

☆ China’s Li Auto drives a fine profit line
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Feb 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The $25 billion electric-car maker Li Auto (2015.HK) is in charging mode. On Monday it reported a net profit of 265 million yuan ($38 million) for the quarter ending December as sales of its family-friendly sport-utility vehicles zoomed 66% from a year earlier. What’s more, unlike other battery-powered groups, Li offers “extended range electric cars” that combine a motor with a smaller battery. Li sees the direction of travel and will soon launch 100% battery-powered products. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

With Alibaba shares down 30% in one month, enthusiasm for China's return to normalcy is peaking early. The Alibaba chief executive also cautioned that January was a "challenging time" and that the company is keeping an eye on how the reopening develops. Alibaba has hit the limits of the reopening boon. Reuters GraphicsFollow @mak_robyn on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSAlibaba on Feb. 23 reported revenue of 248 billion yuan ($35.9 billion) in the three months to December, an increase of 2% year-on-year. Adjusted earnings rose 12% to 40 billion yuan.

☆ Hong Kong spreads its wings, and its bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

HONG KONG, Feb 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - For a sign that Hong Kong’s recovery is more than wishful thinking, look no further than the city’s Disneyland. The house of Mickey Mouse is implicitly betting Hong Kong will soon be back, and bigger than before. At its core, Hong Kong’s unique selling point is that it’s China-by-proxy for investors; enterprises in the People’s Republic account for 78% of the market capitalisation of Hong Kong’s main boards. Against such a backdrop, it’s logical that Hong Kong is trying to spread its bets. Hong Kong exchange boss Nicolas Aguzin’s pitch is strengthened by a Chinese plan to let overseas companies listed in Hong Kong be included in the Connect programme.

☆ BHP investors aren’t seeing the wood for the trees
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Granted, BHP’s earnings of $6.5 billion for the six months to the end of December missed estimates by some 7%. BHP’s investors are missing a bit of the wood for the trees. Iron age: Miners are rallying as iron ore prices riseFollow @AntonyMCurrie on Twitter(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The company attributed the drop to lower prices for iron ore and copper. BHP is paying a dividend of 90 cents a share for the period, down from $1.50 a share a year earlier.

HONG KONG, Feb 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The disappearance of Bao Fan is a chilling dampener on the reopening of the world's second largest economy. China Renaissance was valued at $2.3 billion in its own IPO in 2018 when it was ranked second on China tech deals per Dealogic. Entities including China International Capital Corp (3908.HK) and Citic Securities (600030.SS), also have to grapple with President Xi Jinping’s common-prosperity campaign, making it unclear whether these firms’ erstwhile generosity will resume when advisory activity picks up. It also noted that in September Chinese authorities took Cong Lin, the bank’s president and chairman of its Hong Kong securities unit, into custody. Column by Yawen Chen in Hong Kong and Una Galani in Mumbai.

☆ Central banks' inflation fall-guy lives Down Under
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MELBOURNE, Feb 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If any central bank governor was to feel the heat from the past year’s multiple interest-rate increases, the smart money might have been on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell. Fast forward and Philip Lowe, governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia, looks most exposed. It would be unfair for Lowe to be the fall guy for central banks’ general inflation failure. The head of the central bank made his comments in front of the Senate Economics Legislation Committee. When questioned about his future at the bank, Lowe said he intended to serve out his seven-year term as governor, which ends in September.

☆ Chinese firms face embarrassment of listing riches
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Feb 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Global appetite for Chinese stocks is returning. Sensor-maker Hesai shares popped nearly 11% in what is the biggest initial public offering from the People’s Republic in New York since 2021. The country's sudden reopening has boosted economic activity, and regulators are prioritising growth over cracking down on private firms. Hedge funds have increased their exposure to Chinese equities back to 2020 levels, Goldman Sachs data shows. A steady stream of firms are mulling Hong Kong listings too.

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