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☆ A Wall Street titan who called the 2008 recession shares 7 top trades to make before the US economy enters into another downturn with stocks 'priced for perfection'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Look at the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, says Rosenberg, who called the 2008 recession. He added: "Even if we could argue about a recession or a soft landing, you have Nirvana priced into the stock market as an asset class right now." 7 places for returns as a recession loomsThe first place Rosenberg said he's bullish on is the Treasury market. Treasury bills have durations of one year or less, while Treasury bonds have durations of 20 years or more. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is one way to invest in Japanese stocks.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Treasurys, Rosenberg, there's, he's, bullish, underperformance, Warren Buffett Organizations: Treasury, Conference, CNN, Rosenberg Research, Treasury Bond ETF, Regional Banking, Vanguard Utilities, Real, Fidelity MSCI Communication Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ 'Shark Tank' star Kevin O'Leary says US debt-rating downgrade means there's less faith in the dollar and Treasurys
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Fitch's US credit-rating downgrade means there's less faith in the dollar and Treasury bills, Kevin O'Leary said. This will push sovereign wealth funds to be weary of holding greenbacks, he told Fox News. Doesn't matter: the more the government goes into deficit spending, the more rating agencies scrutinize the quality of that debt," O'Leary said. This is the second downgrade the US has ever received, preceded by S&P Global's 2011 downgrade. Effectively, the lowered rating also means a higher cost of borrowing for the US, which deepens federal deficit spending.

Persons: Kevin O'Leary, Fitch, O'Leary, That's, Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon, Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: Treasury, Fox News, Service, US Treasury, AAA, AA, Wall, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon, America

Bankers have been worried about the eventual outflows of these funds, but RBI officials have assured them in informal meetings that they have adequate buffers to manage such an eventuality, the banking sources said. "Whenever banks have expressed concerns about potential outflows on the forex and debt market, the RBI has always responded positively," said a treasury official at a state-run bank. The official and other sources requested not to be named as they are not authorized to speak to the media. The RBI has never disclosed the quantum of such funds, the sources said. Reporting by Ira Dugal, Siddhi Nayak and Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: CLSA, Ira Dugal, Siddhi Nayak, Dharamraj, Savio D'Souza Organizations: Reserve Bank of, U.S, Bankers, Reuters, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, Reserve Bank of India, India, Siddhi

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency which aim to keep a constant value and are usually backed by traditional assets such as dollars. Tether's reserves report, signed off by accountants BDO Italia, says Tether's assets rose to $86.5 billion in the three months to June 30, 2023, up 5.7% from the previous quarter and a record high, according to previous reports on its website. Tether is a key cog in global digital asset trading, with many crypto-to-crypto trades denominated in the stablecoin. U.S. regulators have warned banks that stablecoin reserves could be subject to rapid outflows, for example if holders rushed to exchange such tokens back into traditional currency. Tether's holdings of U.S. Treasury Bills hit $55.8 billion, up 5.2% from the end of March, while non-U.S. Treasury Bills rose to $62.9 million, up more than 30% from the previous quarter, the report said.

Persons: Elizabeth Howcroft, Christina Fincher Organizations: BDO Italia, Treasury Bills, U.S . Treasury Bills, New York Attorney, Thomson Locations: . U.S, U.S

☆ Treasury bills are still paying above 5%. Here's what to know before buying
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"You don't really know truly what the rate is going to be until the auction hits," Keil said. How to buy T-bills through TreasuryDirect 1. Log in to your TreasuryDirect account. The benefit of brokerage accountsOne way to avoid liquidity issues is by purchasing T-bills through your brokerage account, rather than using TreasuryDirect. Keil said the "biggest benefit" of using a brokerage account is instant access to T-bills and immediately knowing your yield to maturity.

Persons: Treasurys, you'll, Keil, you've, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Getty, U.S . Department of, Treasury Locations: TreasuryDirect

☆ Should you pay your car loan off early? With interest rates rising, it may be a smart move
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If the interest rate on your auto loan is within that range, or exceeds it, here's why it might be a smart move to work toward paying it off early. For used cars, financing costs are steeper, with average rates climbing from 7.4% to 11%. Deciding to pay off a car loan early depends on a number of factors, but lately, rising interest rates have made it more appealing than ever. However, average interest rates have changed: Now that auto loan rates are much higher, the amount you'd be able to earn in the market wouldn't outweigh how much you'd lose to interest on your loan. "I encourage people to pay off car loans early if their interest rates are higher than 5%," says Byrke Sestok, a CFP in New York.

Persons: Kevin Brady, Byrke Sestok Organizations: Bloomberg Locations: Edmunds, New York

☆ The Fed’s expected rate hike is about to sweeten yields on these investments
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to boost interest rates by another quarter percentage point Wednesday afternoon – and that's terrific news for fixed income investors hoping to grab a little more yield. Since March 2022, the central bank has raised rates 10 times – with July's expected hike marking the 11 th increase – to cool inflation. Consider that during the week of March 11, 2022, the rate on the 2-year Treasury note was 1.75%, according to Refinitiv. Investors who wish to squeeze a little more interest income from their cash holdings have opted for Treasury bills, with the 6-month bill yielding 5.5%. By buying multiple notes of different maturities, investors can "ladder" these Treasurys and reinvest the proceeds from maturing bonds into longer-dated issues.

Persons: Greg McBride, maturities, tradeoffs, McBride, SLM —, Sallie Mae —, Nick Wells Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury, Bank of Locations: Bank of Indiana, Treasurys

With the second half of the year now underway, investors may want to take another look at their fixed income portfolio. High yields have been a boon to income investors, as the Federal Reserve increased interest rates over the past year. "For more of our clients, we're looking to have the fixed income of the portfolio provide lower correlation and income," he said. Greg Wilensky, head of U.S. fixed income at Janus Henderson Investors, generally prefers securitized assets such as asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. "You can't think of high yield bonds in the same thought as Treasurys," said Cox of eToro.

Persons: James Franke, Sonal Desai, She's, We're, It's, Desai, Franke, Rothschild, Callie Cox, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Rothschild Investment, Franklin, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors Locations: Treasurys, U.S, eToro

☆ YOUR MONEY How to get high rates to work for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Chris Taylor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

July 17 (Reuters) - There is no doubt that higher interest rates are hard on a many people – especially if you are taking out a loan on a home or a car, or are struggling to catch up with credit-card debt. But for some, steep interest rates are not actually bad news. In fact, 38% of people say they have benefited from higher interest rates during the past year, according to a new survey from Allianz Life Insurance. “That’s the dichotomy: Higher interest rates are both crushing some people and benefiting others at the same time,” says Kelly LaVigne, vice president of Consumer Insights for Allianz Life. That means if you have some savings set aside, it is time to think about how to flip this negative of higher interest rates into a positive.

Persons: “, ”, Kelly LaVigne, Amy Arnott, Morningstar, Arnott, Rowe, Baird, Jeremy Keil, Keil, George Gagliardi, Lauren Young, Aurora Ellis Organizations: Allianz Life Insurance, Consumer, Allianz Life, U.S . Federal Reserve, Morningstar, FDIC, Bills, CIT Bank, BMO Alto, Citizens, Financial, Thomson Locations: New Berlin , Wisconsin, Toronto, Lexington , Massachusetts

☆ 2-year Treasury yield continues to slide after cool June CPI figure
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields were mostly lower on Thursday after June's inflation print came in cooler than expected , reducing the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve . The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slid 2 basis points to 3.8417% while the yield on the 2-year fell more than 5 basis points to 4.6872%, and the 5-year yield dropped more than 4 basis points to 4.0277%. At the longer end of the curve, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was fractionally higher at 3.9529%. The results could heavily influence the trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy decisions and signal the road ahead for inflation. Auctions will be held Thursday for $70 billion of 4-week Treasury bills and $60 billion of 8-week bills, along with $18 billion of 30-year bonds.

Persons: Steve Hanke, CNBC's Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve Locations: United States

☆ The high yield on this 1-year CD just got even hotter
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bread raised the annual percentage yield on its 1-year certificate of deposit to 5.35%, an increase of 10 basis points. That bump higher makes it the 1-year CD with the highest yield among banks under Stephens' coverage, according to a Monday report from the firm. Consider that a 2-year CD at Bread has an APY of 5%, while a 5-year CD yields 4.25%. "The past two weeks have been relatively quiet for online bank rate moves, and we wonder if this is holiday-related or if the online bank demand for deposits has slowed," said Vincent Caintic, an analyst at Stephens. He added that another driver behind the deceleration in deposit rate increases could be a slowdown of loan growth among online banks.

Persons: Bread, Stephens, you'll, Vincent Caintic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: First Internet Bank of Indiana, Federal Deposit Insurance

☆ These funds offer yields exceeding 4% and they’re on discount. Here’s why it might be time to buy them
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

But whether it's time to back up the truck and stock up on cheap dividend payers will depend on a range of factors, including risk appetite and style. Notable constituents include Altria Group, which has an 8.3% dividend yield, and Verizon , which touts a yield exceeding 7%. This would include the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) , which has a total return of about -1.6% this year, and the WisdomTree U.S. Total Dividend ETF (DTD) , with a total return of 2.5%. VIG, for instance, has a total return of 6% this year, but offers a 30-day SEC yield of 1.82%. Whether it's time to snap up these dividend payers will also depend on your risk appetite and your timeline.

Persons: Johnson, Ryan Jackson, Jackson, VIG, Jordan Benold, Benold Organizations: Exxon Mobil, Johnson, Morningstar, SEC, Altria, Verizon, Vanguard, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Locations: U.S

☆ Here's the next yield play for fixed income as rates peak, according to BlackRock
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

There is more to juicing yield than hiding out in money market funds, and BlackRock says now is the time to hop into high-quality fixed income. Indeed, the combination of higher interest rates and an inverted yield curve has made money market funds and Treasury bills tempting. "As rates appear set to peak with the approaching end of the Fed's hiking cycle, investors may want to consider stepping into high-quality, medium-term fixed income." BlackRock noted that intermediate and long-term fixed income exchange-traded funds have received $27.6 billion in inflows year to date, 15% greater than the amount of cash hitting their short-term counterparts. "At these levels, we believe investors are adequately compensated for long-term inflationary risk, given many EM central banks target ~3% inflation," the firm noted.

Persons: US3M Organizations: BlackRock, Federal Reserve

☆ Factbox: Sri Lanka asks foreign investors for a 30% haircut in debt restructure
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The domestic debt restructure is needed to help the country reach the IMF programme goal of reducing overall debt to 95% of GDP by 2032. WHAT WILL THE DOMESTIC DEBT RESTRUCTURING INCLUDE? "We are asking foreign debt holders for a 30% haircut but that is still under discussion," Weerasinghe said. This will be implemented in Phase 2 of the domestic debt restructuring. Aiming to contain any potential market volatility, Sri Lanka declared a five-day holiday from June 29 to July 3.

Persons: Read, Nandalal Weerasinghe, Weerasinghe, Mahinda Siriwardana, CBSL, Uditha Jayasinghe, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Kim Coghill, Emelia Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, Sri Lanka Development, Bank of Sri, Treasury, Sri, Thomson Locations: Colombo, Sri Lanka, Britain, Bank of Sri Lanka, China, Japan, India

☆ Sri Lanka targets 30% haircut for international, domestic dollar bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Uditha Jayasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The government also aims to rework its foreign debt with bondholders and bilateral creditors including China, Japan and India. Under the domestic debt revamp, holders of locally issued dollar-denominated bonds, such as Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs), will be given three options, Weerasinghe said. "We are asking foreign debt holders for a 30% haircut but that is still under discussion," Weerasinghe said. "Sri Lanka is under enormous pressure to restructure as quickly as possible and get its economy back on track, they need funds to import a lot of goods to reinvigorate their key tourism industry," Lutz Roehmeyer, fund manager at Capitulum Asset Management, who holds Sri Lanka international bonds. "A 30% haircut is too little given the shape the country's economy is in."

Persons: Nandalal Weerasinghe, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Weerasinghe, Lutz Roehmeyer, Uditha Jayasinghe, Rosario, Karin Strohecker, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Himani Sarkar, Kim Coghill, Simon Cameron, Moore, Toby Chopra Organizations: Saturday International, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Sri Lanka Development, Capitulum Asset Management, Sri Lanka, World Bank, Sri, Jorgelina, Thomson Locations: COLOMBO, Sri Lanka, Britain, China, Japan, India, United States

☆ This little-known income play offers portfolios price stability and yield
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Floating rate notes' short duration gives them a measure of relative price stability, while offering investors' portfolios some support through variable income. It's the prospect of higher rates for longer, along with the inverted yield curve, that make floating rate notes an attractive play for some. For his clients, Winter has committed between a quarter and a third of investors' fixed income allocation to floating rate notes. "It's lower coupon rates versus the opportunity to lock in high fixed rates now if you consider the environment," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab. That means in a recession, you may not get an increase in floating rate note prices to offset a decline in equities, he said.

Persons: Allison Bonds, Bonds, Jerome Powell, Paul Winter, Winter, aren't, Collin Martin, Charles Schwab Organizations: State Street's U.S, Treasury Bond ETF, Federal Reserve, Federal, Five Locations: Treasurys

☆ Yes, There Are Alternatives to Stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Now, though, it’s a different world: Interest rates, or yields, have risen significantly. It is debatable whether it’s wise to lock in higher interest rates now, or stick with shorter-term holdings until it’s clear that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates. But the time to appreciate the benefits of fixed-income holdings like money market funds and Treasury bills is already here. For the moment, it’s possible to get safe returns that are beating inflation. But Stocks Are BoomingStill, the returns on short-term fixed-income investments are likely to be in the mid-single digits, at best.

Persons: it’s, That’s, Tesla Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta

☆ Hunting for returns, savers dash for euro zone government debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Leading the way is Italy, which sold a record 18.2 billion euro retail bond this month to increase domestic holdings of its debt. This means around 15% of outstanding Portuguese government debt now sits with retail investors, versus 10% in recent years. Belgium meanwhile has issued 390 million euros of state notes to retail investors this year, the highest since 2011. But individuals still only hold 1% of its 1.3 trillion euro public debt overall, a spokesperson said. Italy first launched retail bonds in 2012 amid the euro zone debt crisis, reducing reliance on international investors as borrowing costs surged.

Persons: that's, Rui Amaral, Amaral, Banks, Maric, Post, Jorge Garayo, Cyril Rousseau, Rousseau, Yoruk, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Spanish Treasury, Spanish, European Central Bank, ECB, Treasury, Generale, Germany, Thomson Locations: Portugal, Spanish, Italy, Belgium, Europe, Spain, France, Germany

☆ How to get better returns on your cash now
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Chris Taylor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - You might assume that with U.S. interest rates at new highs, Americans are getting terrific returns on savings. MONEY MARKET FUNDSIn brokerage accounts there is a default or "sweep" account, where cash is kept before you make other investments. The two highest yields at the moment for government money market funds, according to data trackers iMoneyNet: UBS Liquid Assets Government Fund at 5.07%, and Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund at 5.06%. An important note about terminology: Money market funds are distinct from money market accounts. “All of these are very appealing, and we are recommending people reassess their cash and emergency fund savings.

Persons: ”, Greg McBride, ” McBride, James Gambaccini, Gambaccini, –, Sallie Mae, Brandon Opre, Chris Taylor, Lauren Young, Matthew Lewis Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, BMO, TIAA Bank, Treasury Bills, U.S ., Barclays, UBS Liquid Assets Government, Vanguard Treasury Money Market, Thomson Locations: www.TreasuryDirect.gov, Reston , Virginia, Huntersville , North Carolina, New York

Money market funds Assets in retail money market funds grew to $1.99 trillion, according to the latest data from the Investment Company Institute . Further, even as money market funds offer relative safety, they can still face some risk. Don't confuse money market funds with money market accounts. Though money market accounts – which are offered by banks – are protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, up to $250,000, money market funds are not. Certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts Liquidity should be a big factor for investors eyeing bank products like CDs and high-yield savings accounts.

Persons: Jamie Hopkins, Hopkins, Don Grant, Jordan Benold, Lehman, Danika Waddell, BancShares, Waddell Organizations: Federal, Carson Group, Sabre, Investment Company Institute, Investors, –, Lehman Brothers, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Xena, BMO, Ally Financial, CIT Bank, Synchrony, Ally, Capital

☆ What's next for stocks partly depends on how much you believe the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The S & P ended at 4,372, exactly where it was at 2 PM when the Fed made its announcement. In English: I am not saying a soft landing is happening, but we could make it. The stock market certainly believes in the soft landing. The S & P is up nearly 5% this month alone on a belief the job market will remain strong and the Fed is done. But the S & P is up over 500 points (more than 13%) since bottoming at 3,855 on March 13th.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, doesn't, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jeffrey Yale Rubin, FOMO Organizations: Fed, Powell, Bulls, Birinyi Associates, American, of, Bears

☆ April business inventories up by 0.2%
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailApril business inventories up by 0.2%CNBC's Rick Santelli joins 'Squawk on the Street' to share the latest data on business inventories, interest rates, and treasury bills.

Persons: Rick Santelli

☆ Draining the Fed's reverse repos will helps maintain bank liquidity, says Strategas' Dan Clifton
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDraining the Fed's reverse repos will helps maintain bank liquidity, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Companies, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss using reverse repo operations to remove liquidity from the banking sector, the issuance of treasury bills driving net interest costs, and fears of a government shutdown.

Persons: Strategas, Dan Clifton Dan Clifton Organizations: Strategas Research Companies

☆ Draining the Fed's reverse repos will help maintain bank liquidity, says Strategas' Dan Clifton
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDraining the Fed's reverse repos will help maintain bank liquidity, says Strategas' Dan CliftonDan Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Companies, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss using reverse repo operations to remove liquidity from the banking sector, the issuance of treasury bills driving net interest costs, and fears of a government shutdown.

Persons: Strategas, Dan Clifton Dan Clifton Organizations: Strategas Research Companies

☆ As regional bank stock rally regains steam, investors should watch out for these spoilers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

With the Federal Reserve expected to pause its rate-hiking campaign at this week's meeting, regional banks stocks have made a comeback, but that doesn't mean all the trouble is in the rearview mirror. Still, the upward march resumed on Tuesday, begging the question of what's ahead for bank stocks. As the Treasury sells tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills, it could pressure bank deposits. Graseck predicts that a reacceleration of deposit outflows would snuff out the bank stock rally. In addition, regional bank earnings estimates, which had been cut severely in March and April, had leveled off in May.

Persons: Jack Ablin, Ablin, outflows, SVB, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Nicholas Colas, Huntington Bancshares, Matt O'Connor, KeyCorp, Albin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Cresset, Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, PacWest Bancorp, Bank of America, Treasury, DataTrek Research, Citizens Financial Group, Truist, Morgan Stanley U.S, Financials, CRE Conference, Deutsche Bank, TFC Locations: Silicon, Federal, U.S, 2Q23, New York

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